By Edozie Obasi-Eze
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revealed that global oil demand growth in 2021 is at 5.7 mb/d.
According to OPEC,
This reflects slower than anticipated demand from China and India in third quarter of 2021 (3Q21), OPEC said on Wednesday, during its 182nd OPEC Video Conference.
OPEC Secretary General, Mohammad Barkindo, noted that global oil demand had been estimated to reach 96.4 mb/d in 2021 with world total demand in 2022 estimated to reach 100.6 mb/d, almost 0.56 mb/d above 2019 levels.
In his words, “Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2021, to average 63.6 mb/d.
“The main growth drivers of 2021 are Canada, Russia, China, Norway, Brazil and Guyana.
“The forecast for non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d. Russia and the U.S. contribute increments of 1.0 mb/d and 0.9 mb/d, respectively.
“Turning to stocks, Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) commercial stocks stand at 2,773 mb, which is 174 mb below the 2015-2019 average with crude accounting for 148 mb and products 26 mb of this.”
On days of forward cover, Bakindo maintained that OECD commercial stocks in October stood at 61.6 days, 0.7 days lower than the average of 2015-2019.
Secretary General laid emphasis on the need to consider the market
implications of last week’s announcement of the possible coordinated release of 70 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of several consuming countries.
He cautioned that the implications of excess supply in the first half of 2022 (1H2022) ought to be carefully monitored.
On some of the uncertainties clouding the picture, Bakindo highlighted the future of monetary policies, inflationary pressures, possible reintroduction of lockdowns, vaccine uptake rates, vaccine-resistance of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and supply-chain bottlenecks.
He pointed out that the uncertainties and implications on the global oil demand and supply balance had been carefully considered in a scenario analysis as reflected in the Economic Commission Board (ECB) report.
Sharing an overview of market developments, as discussed at the 136th Meeting of the ECB, the Secretary General recalled that over 55 per cent of the global population had received at least one vaccine against the coronavirus.
Going by official statistics, over 262 million people had been sickened, resulting in over 5.2 million fatalities.
He added that the emergence of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and the reintroduction of lockdowns in many regions of the world constitute the main public-health related uncertainties.