Business
Dollar pares gains after Fed sweetens taper message
LONDON – The dollar struggled to gain ground on Thursday after the Federal Reserve surprised many analysts by announcing its long-awaited first cut in bond-buying but couched it by promising interest rates would stay low for longer.
A large majority of market watchers had expected the Fed to wait until next year before starting to reduce its stimulus for the economy but any impact on the dollar – which should in theory gain as a result – was tempered by the fact that much of the move had already been priced in by markets.
The Fed also said it “likely will be appropriate” to keep overnight rates near zero “well past the time” that the U.S. jobless rate falls below 6.5 percent – effectively extending the timeline for beginning to raise base interest rates.
The dollar jumped to a five-year high against the yen of 104.37 yen after the Fed decision before losing ground to trade lower at 103.96 yen. Traders said “short” bets on the yen falling were already stretched near to a maximum and that was also likely to check any dollar gains in the near term.
“The Fed took with one hand and gave with another,” said Simon Smith, head of research at FxPro. “They sweetened the pill as much as they could.
“Tapering is not as dollar-positive as it would have been if it had happened in September.” Smith added that while he expected the dollar to strengthen next year, he did not expect it to hang onto these gains in the first quarter as fourth quarter GDP numbers slow compared with the third quarter.
Analysts were united in expecting the Fed’s move, put off in September due to U.S. budget problems, but the central forecast before Wednesday had been for it to begin tapering off bond purchases in March.
The actual reduction in monthly asset purchases was minimal – $10 billion – and they remain at a staggering $75 billion a month in extra dollars that are coursing through global markets.
The dollar has already risen 20 percent against the yen this year as the looming tapering contrasted with expectations the Bank of Japan would further loosen its own monetary policy.
Tapering is seen as positive for the dollar because it would push up Treasury yields and attract yield-seeking investors. But crucially two-year U.S. yields fell back on Wednesday after an initial rise as bond investors took reassurance from the Fed’s message on interest rates.
“We’ve been calling for 104.70, 105 as targets (for dollar/yen), and it took this event to get above 104, which was a bit surprising,” said Bart Wakabayashi, head of forex at State Street Global Markets in Tokyo.
“Institutional investors, asset managers were pretty much positioned for this taper,” he said.
The euro lost ground against the dollar to hit its lowest in almost two weeks of $1.36495 as investors took profits from its recent rally. It later recovered some ground to trade at $1.3686, supported by euro zone banks repaying cheap European Central Bank loans, thus tightening liquidity.
The Australian dollar, already under pressure because of the central bank’s desire to see it weaken, hovered near a 3-1/2-year low in the wake of the Fed’s announcement.
The Aussie fell as far as $0.8820, its lowest since August 2010, and was last at $0.8860.
– REUTERS
Business
CBN Warns Banks Against Sale Of Naira Notes To Hawkers, Announces Stiff Penalties
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued a stern warning to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) over the illegal sale of mint Naira notes to currency hawkers.
The apex bank, in a circular signed by the Acting Director of Currency Operations, Mr. Solaja Olayemi, on Friday, emphasized that erring banks would face stringent penalties.
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As part of its efforts to curb the abuse of the national currency, the CBN announced plans to conduct nationwide checks to seize mint notes sold by hawkers.
Banks found to have released such notes will be required to pay a fine of 10% of the value of the affected cash withdrawn from the CBN on the date in question.
Subsequent violations will attract an additional penalty incrementally increased by 5%.
The CBN also reiterated its commitment to enforcing the Clean Notes Policy, warning that banks involved in hoarding, diversion, or any actions that disrupt efficient cash distribution would face appropriate sanctions.
With the festive season fast approaching, the apex bank urged DMBs to enhance internal controls to ensure transparent cash distribution.
It highlighted the need for proper utilization of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) to ensure easy access to new notes by the public.
Furthermore, the CBN disclosed plans to intensify its mystery shopping and spot checks, working closely with law enforcement agencies to clamp down on any practices that undermine the integrity of the Naira.
Business
JUST IN: Inflation Woes Continue As Nigerian Rates Climb To 33.88%
Nigeria’s inflation rate surged to 33.88% in October 2024, up from 32.7% in September, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.
The month-on-month increase of 1.18 percentage points marks yet another strain on the nation’s economy, with transportation and food costs cited as the main drivers of inflation.
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Steep Year-on-Year Increase
Compared to October 2023, when the inflation rate stood at 27.33%, the October 2024 figure reflects a significant rise of 6.55 percentage points. This sustained upward trend highlights the worsening cost-of-living crisis for Nigerians.
Month-on-Month Breakdown
Inflation on a month-on-month basis also showed an uptick, rising to 2.64% in October 2024 from 2.52% in September. The faster rate of price increases further underscores the growing economic pressure on households.
Food Inflation Soars to 39.16%
Food inflation, a major component of the headline rate, reached 39.16% in October 2024, up from 31.52% in the same month last year.
The increase was driven by higher prices of staple items, including: Cereals and Tubers: Guinea Corn, Rice, Maize Grains, Yam, Water Yam, and Coco Yam. Oils and Fats: Palm Oil and Vegetable Oil. Beverages: Milo, Lipton, and Bourvita.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose by 0.30 percentage points to 2.94% in October, up from 2.64% in September.
Price hikes in Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil, Fish, Meat, and Bread categories were major contributors.
Annual Food Inflation Hits 38.12%
The average annual food inflation rate over the past 12 months climbed to 38.12%, a sharp increase of 11.79 percentage points from the 26.33% recorded in October 2023.
The consistent rise in inflation, particularly food and transportation costs, continues to erode the purchasing power of Nigerians.
Business
MAN Counts On Govt’s Support For Dangote Refinery To Boost More Downstream Investments
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has expressed the view that support of both Nigerians and the government for the Dangote Refinery, would enable the giant refinery to perform optimally.
It added that such support will also serve as an impetus for other investors to invest in the downstream sector of the petroleum industry in Nigeria.
The President of MAN, Otunba Francis Meshioye, who made the call after a tour of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Petrochemical Complex and Fertilizer Plant advocated that Nigerians and the government should do all they can to support the multi-billion-dollar company, which he described as a source of pride and a gift not only to Nigeria but also to the African continent and the whole world.
He described the Dangote Refinery as a game-changer in the Nigerian oil and gas industry, saying that it is not only creating jobs and driving economic growth but also contributing to our nation’s energy security and self-sufficiency.
According to him, the project is quite inspiring, and he admired the inspiration of the promoter of the project, Aliko Dangote.
He said, “To have been inspired to establish this facility is very magnificent, it is the first ever in Africa and the first ever of such refinery in the whole world. It has many first, first and first.”
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The company has the capacity to produce all our needs locally, petroleum, and other similar products: no one would come to the facility and he would not be inspired or encouraged to ensure that all the support that the company requires should be given to it.
The MAN President said the government should do all that is humanly possible to ensure that the facility works Optimally. “It is prudent and expedient that the necessary supports are given to the company for the economic benefits of Nigeria.
“If the facility can produce 650,000 barrels of crude per day and Nigeria is producing far above this volume per day, she should give the facility all crude it needed to produce”.
He noted that apart from the fact that the facility can give Nigerians what they need locally, the excess will be exported, and when they are exported, the country benefits because it will earn foreign exchange for the government.
“So, whichever way we look at it, the facility requires the government’s support to be able to operate optimally. We have seen the laboratory which is in a class of its own. It is first among equals around the world. It is functioning very well. It is a complex on its own.
“With this kind of facility that starts from quality control to quality assurance, just to ensure that the harmful effects of the products are at zero level, what can be greater than this? This is very unique and I will encourage all stakeholders to give maximum support, and not by the way support, but maximum support.
“I cannot see anything that is lacking in this company, we have been here since morning and went through all the units. The facility can deliver products between 1760 trucks to 1800 trucks per day. So if you have such several trucks going out of the facility a day to various destinations in Nigeria, so many people will benefit from it. There will be more jobs, many families will be comfortable because of the jobs this will create, many artisans will benefit and it will have a spillover effect on so many sectors of the economy.
“If they can produce AGO, gasoline and Jet A fuel, this is good and the government should have no reason not to ensure the facility gets its backing to carry out its activities, because it is going to benefit massively,” he added.
The MAN boss who stated that his organization is an advocacy group, said to a large extent it will support the Dangote Refinery by pushing its case with the government, and also solicit the support of necessary government agencies that can ensure that it operates fully.
The association, he said, always discusses with the government issues that affect its members and it has always listened to it , and always finds solutions to those issues, stating further that Dangote Refinery’s case will not be different.
“The sheer scale and ambition of this project is truly impressive, and we applaud the vision and determination of the Dangote Group in making this refinery a reality.
As manufacturers, we understand the importance of reliable and affordable energy in driving our businesses forward. The Dangote Refinery will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the entire manufacturing value chain, providing a reliable source of fuel and petrochemical products that are essential for capacity utilisation and value addition.
“I believe that the success of the Dangote Refinery serves as an inspiration to all of us in the manufacturing sector. It demonstrates what is possible when we combine innovation, technology, and investment to create world-class facilities that benefit the entire nation,” he asserted.