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Delay In Crude Supply To Dangote Refinery Poses Risk To Nigeria’s Economy – EIU Report
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has issued a warning that further delays in crude oil feedstock to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals could jeopardise Nigeria’s economic recovery and put additional pressure on the naira.
The research and analysis division of the Economist Group said the Dangote refinery which began production in January has encountered setbacks in petrol production due to a shortage of crude oil feedstock.
It noted that the $20 billion facility has successfully exported various products, including fuel oil, naphtha, nitrogen fertilisers, gasoil, jet fuel, and diesel but has been able to ramp up petrol production due to challenges in sourcing adequate crude oil.
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According to the EIU, the delays in crude feedstock to the Dangote Refinery are expected to have significant economic repercussions for Nigeria, potentially worsening the already strained relationship between public finances and the management of the naira, the country’s currency.
The report pointed out that though the government had previously scrapped the official petrol subsidy in June 2023, the practice of unofficially subsidising petrol continues, with substantial implications for the national budget.
It further pointed out that this had led to increased currency losses, contributing to a widening budget deficit which made it increasingly difficult to manage and could force the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to revert to stronger management of the currency.
“As the federal government unofficially subsidises petrol (the official subsidy was scrapped in June 2023), currency losses feed into a widening budget deficit that is becoming more challenging to finance. This provides extra incentive for the central bank to revert to stronger management of the currency, as we already expect, but the degree of market intervention could become heavier. Meanwhile, ongoing fuel imports would reduce the current-account surplus from the 1.9% of GDP that we currently project for 2025, potentially leading to lower foreign reserves and the return to a more rigid and unstable foreign-exchange system,” it said.
The delay in securing a reliable pipeline of affordable crude oil feedstock was attributed to low crude production due to oil theft and underinvestment, as well as using crude oil to repay outstanding loans.
“The refinery has encountered a range of problems, both practical and political in nature. The most publicly discussed issue is how the refinery can secure a reliable pipeline of crude oil feedstock at affordable prices. NNPC, the state oil firm, has not been able to provide enough volume. The government has promised to deliver 450,000 b/d of oil to the refinery through NNPC in a pilot scheme, sold in naira, but the state oil company is not in a position to make this a reliable arrangement. Crude production in Nigeria is stubbornly low, as a result of oil theft and underinvestment. Output was 1.31m b/d in July, against an OPEC+ target of 1.38m b/d. NNPC receives a varying minority share of this and, moreover, a sizable quantity (about 90,000 b/d) is being committed as loan collateral,” it added.
The situation, it said, has been worsened by International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria, which demand a premium of $3-$4 per barrel over the prices they receive elsewhere. It noted that regulators are hesitant to enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) — which requires IOCs to sell crude to local refineries — out of concern that such enforcement might lead to divestment.
The report emphasised that producing fuel locally would significantly benefit Nigeria’s fiscal position and currency, given that petroleum products account for 15% to 20% of the country’s goods import bill.
The Dangote Refinery, hailed as a transformative development, is expected to resolve the paradox of Nigeria being a major crude oil producer yet still dependent on fuel imports. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d), the refinery could potentially eliminate the need for fuel imports and shield local fuel prices from exchange-rate fluctuations.
“The Dangote fuel refinery is potentially transformational for Nigeria, which has always been an oil exporter and fuel importer. This fact is often regarded as a failure and an embarrassment by politicians, businesses and the media alike, but the new refinery has the ability to change this,” it said.
Following the marginal reduction of the pump prices of premium motor spirit (PMS) by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and the Nigerian National Petrol Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), civil society groups have reacted by calling for further downward review.
Recall that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery had announced a partnership with MRS Oil and Gas to offer petrol at N935 per litre at retail outlets, while it reviewed the ex-depot price from N970 to N899.50 per litre.
The move, saw state oil major, the Nigeria National Petroleum Company peg its retail prices at N965/litre.
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However, the civil society groups are of the opinion that the price reduction, fall short of expectations.
According to the Chairman, Centre for Accountability and Open Leadership, Debo Adeniran, the reduced price of N935/litre was still expensive and unsatisfactory.
He pointed out that petrol was just one of the products coming out of crude and that both government and private business could still give out free petrol to citizens while making huge profits from the other products.
In his words, “Well, we believe that if NNPC and the private sector actually give out PMS for free, they will still not run their business at a loss, because the other derivatives of petroleum products can still serve them, and can still make them to break even. So, even at that N900 and something, it’s still expensive.
“Dangote has kind of mooted the idea that it could drop to as low as N650. And if he has mulled this, then it means that it is the state, it is the NNPC that will have been the clog in the wheel of such progress. And you know also that we expected that fuel prices, especially PMS prices, will drop below N200 when Dangote was expected to come on stream.
“So, it’s unfortunate that we are still talking about over N900 and they want us to jump up and rejoice for that. That is not satisfactory. They should just let us see the breakdown of their production cost and why it’s still there. I mean, there are countries like Libya under Gaddafi that gave out PMS for free and they didn’t run anything at any loss. So, I believe that it can still go further down.”
On his part, the Executive Director of the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, Ibrahim Rafsanjani, commended the reduction of fuel prices by the NNPC and Dangote, but said the government could still reduce the price.
“Dangote’s own is about N899 or something like that. Well first and foremost, we are happy that there is a little reduction in the prices. But also based on analysis and based on facts and evidences, we believe that it is possible for the Nigerian government to further reduce the prices.
“Because if a private company can reduce the price and it still makes profit, we wonder why government-owned enterprises cannot really pity its citizens,” he said.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced a significant growth in the country’s economy, with a 3.46% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024.
This marks the third consecutive quarter of expansion, up from 3.19% in Q2 2024 and 2.54% in Q3 2023.
According to the newly published Q3 economic report, Nigeria’s GDP output rose to ₦20.115 trillion, reflecting a notable improvement from ₦18.285 trillion in the previous quarter.
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The CBN attributed this growth primarily to the performance of the non-oil sector, which grew by 3.37% compared to 2.80% in Q2 2024.
The report highlighted transportation, crop production, and other sub-sectors such as financial & insurance services, information & communication, trade, and real estate as major contributors to the expansion.
The non-oil sector accounted for 3.18 percentage points of the total growth rate.
“The expansion of the non-oil sector was driven by the performance of the financial & insurance, information & communication, crop production, trade, transportation & storage, and real estate sub-sectors,” the report stated.
Despite the economic growth, challenges persist. Inflation, particularly in food prices, remains a significant concern, standing at 39.93% as of November 2024.
Rising food and energy costs have also impacted transportation expenses, with intercity bus fares increasing by 20.23% year-on-year to ₦7,117.17 in July 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Furthermore, the cost of petroleum, now exceeding ₦1,000 per litre, has driven up logistics and transportation expenses, adding pressure to households and businesses alike.
The CBN acknowledged these challenges, noting that the growth was achieved despite headwinds such as high inflation and rising operational costs.
Enhanced security measures in the Niger Delta have boosted domestic crude oil production, while restrictive monetary policies have helped moderate inflation in some areas.
“The growth recorded in the country is a result of continued efforts to improve the business environment, streamline cumbersome business processes, and deepen the quality of business infrastructure,” the CBN noted.
However, the report comes amid concerns over businesses exiting Nigeria due to persistent economic challenges.
Asharami Synergy, a leading downstream energy solutions provider, has demonstrated its commitment to community development and education by donating essential furniture to Gaskiya Junior School in Ijora, Lagos, Nigeria.
Biztellers reports that the social responsibility initiative was executed in collaboration with Sahara Group Foundation – the social impact vehicle of global energy conglomerate, Sahara Group.
It was gathered that the initiative is part of Asharami Synergy’s ongoing efforts to support education in communities.
The donation includes classroom desks and chairs for the JSS1 classes.
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CEO of Asharami Synergy, Nomnso Dike, said the project will create a more comfortable and functional learning environment and enhance student performance.
“We are delighted at the opportunity to support the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4, which focuses on ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education. It has been a privilege to collaborate with the management and students of Gaskiya Junior School to deliver this project, and we look forward to future opportunities to enhance academic performance in this historic institution,” Dike said.
According to him, Asharami Synergy’s education-focused social impact initiatives have benefitted over 10,000 individuals. They focus on building capacity and providing the resources necessary to help students learn and grow sustainably.
“Education is the foundation of a brighter future, and at Asharami Synergy, we believe that every child deserves a learning environment that inspires and empowers them” he noted, adding, “This donation is not just about providing furniture; it’s a reminder to the students that their dreams are valid, and we are committed to helping them achieve their goals.”
Vice Principal Academic of Gaskiya Junior School, Sola Oladokun, commended Asharami Synergy for the donation, noting that it would inspire students to perform better with “increased concentration and fewer distractions”.
“These desks and chairs are a game-changer for our students. It’s heartwarming to see their excitement, and as teachers, we are equally thrilled because this will make teaching and learning more effective. We are incredibly grateful to Asharami Synergy and Sahara Group Foundation for this thoughtful intervention,” she added.
Two representatives of the students, Akin Moses and Chukwudi Gift, at the event said the donation would increase their “desire to dream bigger and concentrate better during lessons”.
Also speaking at the commissioning, COO at Asharami Synergy, Adekanmi Adesola, said, “What started as an opportunity to support the communities that host our operations has now come full circle. This donation directly impacts the lives of these students, and we are proud to bring smiles to the faces of the students and teachers.”
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