The Nigerian government is shifting focus from exporting crude oil to transform into a major hub for refined petroleum products in Africa.

The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Rabiu Umar, disclosed this on Monday at the 49th Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council in Lagos.

Umar said Nigeria’s expanding refining capacity meant the country should increasingly process its crude locally rather than export the raw commodity.

He said the development of new private and modular refineries was rapidly transforming Nigeria from a crude oil exporter and importer of refined petroleum products into a regional refining hub.

“The fact that today, we have more refining capacity in Nigeria than we’ve ever had. And, of course, with the projects that are on stream and the expansions that we are also going to witness in the coming years, clearly Nigeria is going to turn into a refining hub for Africa, which means that perhaps every single molecule of our three million barrels a day production that we hope to achieve in the next couple of years will actually be refined locally.

“What that means, and I think this is a monumental shift, is a handshake between the upstream, midstream and downstream. Effectively, it’s not just exporting the raw crude, but making sure that what we actually end up exporting is the refined petroleum products. And I think this is quite substantial,” he stated.

The NMDPRA chief executive said his agency was working with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to enforce the domestic crude supply obligation, which he described as critical to supporting the country’s growing refining industry.

“True resilience requires operational and commercial balance. And we remain steadfast in working with our sister agency, the NUPRC, in enforcing the domestic crude supply obligation. And this is really, really important because if we have enough refining capacity, really we don’t have any reason to be exporting crude oil.

“The more of the refined products we are able to export, the more value we create because, after extraction, we’re also adding value, including in the gas and petrochemical sectors as well,” Umar stated.

He said the shift towards domestic refining would enable Nigeria to capture more value from its petroleum resources by integrating the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors. Umar also identified energy security, gas expansion and regulatory excellence as key priorities of the NMDPRA.

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He said the authority was working to ensure adequate petroleum product stocks were maintained close to markets to guard against supply disruptions and price shocks.

“In addition, we are also working on ensuring that we maintain a certain level of stock in the country at any given point in time. As we’ve seen with the current global crises, we have seen how countries have had to dip into their reserves to make sure that prices don’t escalate.

“So, when we talk about energy security, it’s not just having the products on the coastline, but having the products near markets. In addition to that, we’re also working to make sure that we have stock that will have a protocol of release to make sure that prices remain fairly stable because, of course, as we know, supply and demand drive what we see in terms of pricing,” he added.

Umar said the NMDPRA was also removing bottlenecks affecting the deployment of midstream infrastructure, including pipelines, depots and strategic storage terminals.

He said the agency was working with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, to rehabilitate critical infrastructure, strengthen integrity management, sustain throughput, and reduce losses and disruptions.

On regulation, Umar said the authority was seeking to make the sector more predictable for investors by reducing bureaucratic hurdles and speeding up regulatory decisions.

“On our own part, what we’re trying to do is to make sure that we move away from regulators being seen as police people. Our job is to make sure that the environment is predictable. People can predict what to expect. People can actually determine how long it will take to get a certain refining licence, for example. Because once the conditions are met, it’s like clockwork.

“Because we can’t move forward in the 21st century in terms of investment when we are having a mindset of 1960. So this is really the core of what we’re trying to achieve,” Umar explained.

The NMDPRA chief executive said Nigeria was also seeking to strengthen its position in the West African petroleum products market through the development of a regional pricing benchmark.

He said the initiative, being pursued with other West African regulators and S&P Global Commodity Insights, would help create a transparent regional market and turn Nigeria into a trading hub.

“Our idea is to see how we can actually turn Nigeria into a trading hub. Working with other West African regulators, how do we have one single standard or, if you like, specification for all the products that we consume? That way, people can move products from one region to another without constraint. Today, you hear 50 ppm, somewhere it’s 200 ppm, and all sorts of other parameters that are different,” he stated.

Umar urged stakeholders to focus on implementing existing policies and strategies rather than continuing to develop new plans.

Meanwhile, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said collaboration remained critical to developing Nigeria’s oil and gas industry amid rapid changes in the global energy landscape.

Eyesan said geopolitical developments, climate considerations, technological disruptions, artificial intelligence, changing investment priorities and rising energy demand were redefining how countries produce, transport and consume energy.

“The theme of this year’s conference, ‘Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience,’ speaks directly to the realities confronting our industry today.”

She said the conference was more than an annual gathering, noting that discussions held at the event over the years had contributed to shaping the direction of Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

Eyesan said collaboration among government, regulators, operators, investors, service providers and professionals had helped shape reforms in the upstream sector.

The Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Council is of the view that the country will achieve three million barrels of oil production per day by 2030.

Biztellers reports that the thoughts are predicated on the oil and gas sector regaining global investor confidence owing to reforms, transparent licensing rounds and accelerated gas development reposition, factors that have combined to make the country an attractive investment destination for major global players in the sector.

Chairman of the SPE Nigeria Council, Francis Nwaochei, stated this at the opening ceremony of the 49th Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE 2026) in Lagos on Monday.

The NAICE 2026 is holding under the theme: Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience”.

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He said the recent policy reforms and coordinated actions by government and industry stakeholders were restoring confidence across the petroleum sector after years of declining investment.

According to him, Nigeria’s energy industry is entering a new phase driven by regulatory reforms, improved transparency, indigenous capacity and renewed efforts to attract long term capital.

He cited the successful conclusion of the 2025 Licensing Round, in which 31 companies emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks, as evidence of renewed investor appetite and a more transparent competitive bidding process.

“The industry is not standing still. The conclusion of recent licensing and bid rounds signals renewed investor interest and a more transparent competitive process.” The SPE Nigeria Council Chairman noted that the Federal Government’s Decade of Gas initiative was steadily positioning natural gas as the foundation for industrialisation, improved electricity supply, cleaner energy access and economic diversification. He also described the Federal Government’s planned N4 trillion government-backed bond to settle verified debts owed to electricity generation companies and gas suppliers as a significant intervention that would restore liquidity, improve bankability and strengthen confidence across Nigeria’s power and gas value chain.

According to him, these developments complement the broader vision of the Federal Government to increase crude oil production, deepen gas commercialisation and create a more predictable and investor-friendly operating environment.

He noted that the Ministers of State for Petroleum Resources, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) had consistently aligned around the goal of attracting investment, improving regulatory efficiency, expanding gas utilisation and growing Nigeria’s production capacity to three million barrels per day by 2030.

“The reforms, investments, regulatory actions and industry commitments we are witnessing today are the beginning of what resilience truly means for Nigeria’s energy industry,” he said.

Nwaochei said Nigeria possesses significant competitive advantages, including abundant hydrocarbon resources, resilient indigenous operators, world-class technical professionals and an expanding technology ecosystem capable of supporting long-term industry growth.

He, however, stressed that sustaining the industry’s momentum would require policy consistency, stronger regulatory coordination, technology deployment, local content development and greater collaboration among government, operators and investors.

“Nigeria’s energy future will be determined not only by the resources beneath our soil, but by how we develop technical solutions to our unique challenges, the quality of our leadership, the strength of our institutions, the clarity and stability of our policies, our willingness to innovate and our commitment to collaboration,” he said.

He urged participants at the three-day conference to move beyond identifying industry challenges and instead develop practical, implementable solutions capable of positioning Nigeria as a globally competitive energy destination.

The conference, one of Africa’s largest annual gatherings of petroleum professionals, will attract government officials, regulators, international and indigenous oil companies, service providers, investors, researchers, technology firms and students from Nigeria and other countries to discuss the future of the energy industry.

The world is witnessing a sharp drop in crude oil prices, which raises the issue of how the domestic market would react to the global trend.

The fall in oil prices came on Monday after United States President Donald Trump signalled a shift from military action against Iran to renewed diplomatic talks, easing fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The development calmed global oil markets, where traders had been worried that fighting in the region could disrupt crude supplies.

Brent crude, the international benchmark used to price Nigerian oil, dropped by more than 4.8 per cent to around $83.70 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by over 5 percent to about $79.60 per barrel. The decline marked one of the biggest single-day losses in recent months.

The price drop followed Trump’s announcement that he had suspended plans for a military strike on Iran and was instead pursuing a deal aimed at ending tensions over Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

In a message posted on his Truth Social platform, Trump said: “Iran and all other players have requested time to finalize a deal.”

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The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes, with nearly a fifth of global crude exports passing through it. Any threat to shipping in the area usually pushes oil prices higher because traders fear supply shortages.

For weeks, uncertainty surrounding the conflict had driven oil prices sharply upward, raising the cost of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other refined products across many countries, including Nigeria.

Energy analysts say the latest decline in crude prices could eventually translate into lower fuel prices if the trend continues.

Nigeria now operates a deregulated downstream petroleum market, meaning petrol prices largely reflect global crude prices, exchange rates, shipping costs and local distribution expenses.

When crude oil becomes cheaper, the cost of producing refined petroleum products also falls. If marketers are able to buy fuel at lower international prices, consumers could benefit through reduced pump prices, although the adjustment may not happen immediately.

Industry experts, however, caution that Nigerians should not expect an instant reduction because local petrol prices are also influenced by the naira’s exchange rate, transportation costs, taxes and marketers’ existing inventories purchased at higher prices.

They note that marketers typically sell existing stock before adjusting prices to reflect lower replacement costs.

Market still watching Middle East Despite Monday’s sharp decline, analysts say uncertainty remains high as investors continue to monitor developments between the United States and Iran.

While hopes of diplomacy have eased fears of an immediate supply disruption, traders remain cautious because negotiations could still collapse, potentially reigniting tensions and sending oil prices higher again.

Another factor supporting lower prices is the decision by OPEC+ to gradually increase oil production from September. However, supply challenges in parts of the Middle East and other producing countries continue to limit the full impact of additional output.

For Nigeria, lower crude prices present mixed implications. Consumers could benefit from cheaper petrol if marketers pass on the savings, but reduced oil prices may also shrink government revenue since crude oil remains the country’s biggest source of foreign exchange earnings.

Whether Nigerians eventually enjoy cheaper fuel will depend on how long the decline in global oil prices lasts and whether other factors, particularly the exchange rate and distribution costs, remain stable.