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China Inflation Below Target as Leaders Start Reform Summit

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TOKYO – China’s consumer prices rose less than economists forecast in October and factory-gate deflation deepened for the first time in five months, reducing odds that officials will tighten monetary policy.

The consumer price index rose 3.2 percent in October from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing, compared with the 3.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and September’s 3.1 percent. Industrial-production growth unexpectedly accelerated to 10.3 percent, a separate report showed.

Inflation below the government’s 3.5 percent full-year target may allow Communist Party leaders, gathering today in Beijing for an economic summit, to take a measured approach to reining in credit growth. State media have called the meeting a “watershed” for reform as China seeks to move to an economy focused on domestic demand.

China“Both CPI inflation and economic growth still remain within Beijing policy makers’ comfort zone,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. While there’s “no need for either easing or tightening in the coming months,” the central bank will have to use its tools to keep liquidity stable as money inflows keep rising, Qu said.

The gain in factory output compares with a median estimate of 10 percent in a Bloomberg News survey and September’s 10.2 percent pace. Retail sales rose 13.3 percent in October from a year earlier, the same pace as the previous month, while January-to-October fixed asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 20.1 percent, after a 20.2 percent rate in the first nine months, statistics bureau data showed.

Inflation Estimates

The central bank is scheduled to release money supply and lending numbers by Nov. 15.
Price gains have stayed within the government’s 2013 target of 3.5 percent every month this year. Estimates (CNCPIYOY) for October consumer inflation from 44 analysts ranged from 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The median estimate of 40 economists was for a 1.4 percent drop in producer prices.
Producer prices fell a more-than-projected 1.5 percent, after a 1.3 percent decline the previous month. It was the 20th straight month of declining factory-gate prices, the longest stretch since 2002. “As long as PPI inflation remains negative, there is little pass-through effect to CPI inflation,” Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao, economists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a note.

Food Prices

The October CPI gain was the highest since February when the index also rose 3.2 percent. Food prices rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier, the most since April 2012, while non-food inflation was unchanged from September at 1.6 percent, according to today’s data. Transportation and communications costs fell 0.6 percent, the most in four months.

Competition is helping keep consumer-price gains muted, as Chinese online shopping sites gear up for “Singles Day” sales on Nov. 11 by slashing prices. 360buy Jingdong Inc. began offering half-price Pampers diapers as of Nov. 1 and will slice as much as 70 percent off items including slimming belts and facial moisturizers, according to its website.

The benchmark seven-day repurchase rate climbed 85 basis points to 5.05 percent in October, helping derail a stock market rally and driving the one-year government bond yield to a record high. In June, the Shanghai Composite Index of shares sank 7.7 percent after the repo rate touched an all-time high of 10.77 percent.

Comfort Zone

While inflation remains in a “comfortable zone,” it has begun to “flag an alarm for the monetary authority to keep a close watch on the trend,” Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong International Securities Group in Hong Kong, said in a note.
Yuan positions at Chinese financial institutions accumulated from foreign-exchange purchases, a gauge of capital inflows, rose in September by the most in five months, data showed last month.

Among other recent signs of potential tightening, the People’s Bank of China said in a report this week that the economy “may see a decline in leverage” over a relatively long period of time, a suggestion that UBS AG said hadn’t been previously mentioned by a government economic agency. The PBOC also said that “we can’t be blindly optimistic about the price situation.”

Meeting Start

Leaders including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang started a four-day gathering today, the third full meeting of the party’s current Central Committee, to chart out China’s long-term economic policies.
Li said in remarks published earlier this week that “there’s a lot of money in the ‘pool’ and issuing more money may lead to inflation,” citing the nation’s outstanding M2 money supply of more than 100 trillion yuan ($16 trillion) as of March, about double gross domestic product.

China’s economic growth rebounded to 7.8 percent in the third quarter from 7.5 percent in the second quarter. Data yesterday showed China’s exports increased a more-than-estimated 5.6 percent in October from a year earlier, rebounding from September’s unexpected drop. Imports rose 7.6 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $31.1 billion, the biggest this year.

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NNPC Ltd: $3.4bn Saved Through Contract Restructuring

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) claimed that it saved $3.4 billion through contract restructuring and optimisation between April 2025 and July 2026.

Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, made the assertion in Abuja at the opening of the 25th Nigeria Oil & Gas (NOG) Energy Week, while highlighting the impact of ongoing reforms aimed at improving operational efficiency, reducing costs, strengthening partnerships, and enhancing value delivery to the federation.

Ojulari also stated that the national oil company had maintained full compliance with its joint venture cash call obligations.

ALSO READ: Oil, Gas Deals Push Nigeria’s FDI to $4 Billion

According to the scorecard presented by the NNPC Ltd, the $3.4 billion cost savings were realised through contract restructuring and optimisation initiatives across the company’s operations.

The reforms also contributed to an increase in government revenue, with the NNPC Ltd reporting a government take of N19.5 trillion, representing a 21.8 per cent year-on-year increase.

Besides, a major highlight of the report was NNPC’s 100 percent compliance with its joint venture cash call obligations across all its joint ventures from Financial Year 2025 to June 2026.

However, the company’s partners recorded a blended compliance rate of just 61 percent.

Of the 27 joint venture partners, only six were fully current with their obligations, while 13 recorded partial compliance with an average payment rate of 72 percent, and eight remained in significant default, paying an average of only 14 percent, prompting Joint Operating Agreement remedies.

The NNPC Ltd said it remained committed to sustaining its cash call obligations to support Nigeria’s target of achieving two million barrels of oil production per day.

Operationally, the company reported a six percent increase in crude oil production year-on-year and an 8.1 percent rise in gas production over the same period, reflecting improvements in upstream operations.

Ojulari also highlighted several strategic partnerships concluded since the last Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference, including a long term gas supply agreement with Nigeria LNG, progress on deepwater investments valued at over $20 billion, refinery related partnerships, industrial gas projects, and new gas supply arrangements.

Looking ahead, the company identified seven priority projects expected to drive production and gas infrastructure growth through 2027.

These, it said, included the UTM Floating LNG project, the OB3 East West Connector, the AKK gas pipeline, refinery technical enhancement projects, the Zabazaba deepwater development, the Owowo field, and the BSWAP project.

The state oil major added that the combination of cost optimisation, stronger operational performance, improved infrastructure reliability, and strategic partnerships would reinforce Nigeria’s energy security, boost government revenues, and support sustainable growth in oil and gas production.

Ojulari said the national oil company achieved 98 percent recovery across five crude export terminals between April 2025 and May 2026, up from one per cent at Bonny in June 2022.

He put current output at 1.71mbpd, the highest in five years, with the NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL) hitting a record 365,000 bpd.

Gas production, he said, reached 7.5 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d) following the River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Pipeline and inauguration of the ANOH Gas Plant.

Ojulari added that the NNPC Ltd had “zero tolerance for partners who are not able to fund their Cash-call” and had begun invoking default clauses.

He stressed collaboration over control, saying, “We have rid ourselves of any pseudo-regulation. We are not the super-regulator. Let them regulate. We want to work.”

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Energia, Oando Inaugurate Board for HCDT in Delta Community

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Leaf Investment Emerges Substantial Investor in Oando

Energia Limited and its Joint Venture partner, Oando Plc, have inaugurated the board of trustees of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust (HCDT).

The inauguration marked a significant milestone in strengthening sustainable development, transparency and community participation across their host communities in Delta State.

The inauguration, held in Asaba, also featured the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Energia-Oando Joint Venture and the seven host communities, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021.

The event brought together representatives of Delta State Government, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), traditional rulers, community leaders, members of the newly inaugurated board of trustees, and other key stakeholders from the oil and gas industry.

ALSO READ: Oil, Gas Deals Push Nigeria’s FDI to $4 Billion

Representing the Governor of Deputy Governor, Delta State, Sir Monday Onyeme, Deputy Chief of Staff, Hon. Christopher Osaskwe commended Energia Limited and the host communities for successfully establishing the Trust and signing the Memorandum of Understanding.

He described the initiative as a demonstration of mutual commitment to partnership and sustainable development, while urging the newly inaugurated board to discharge its responsibilities with transparency, accountability and fairness.

He also encouraged host communities to continue protecting oil and gas infrastructure and embrace dialogue as the preferred approach to resolving disputes.

Managing Director, Energia Limited, Oladimeji Bashorun, described the inauguration as the beginning of a new chapter in the relationship between Energia and its host communities.

According to him, the company remains focused on building partnership, shared responsibility and sustainable development rather than dependency.

He noted that while the PIA provides a structured framework for host community development, Energia’s commitment to its host communities predates the legislation and has remained a core part of the Company’s operating philosophy since it achieved First Oil in 2009.

“Communities that host our operations should also share meaningfully in the opportunities created by those operations. Our success has always been closely connected to the success of our host communities,” Bashorun said.

He also disclosed that Energia has invested over N15.94 billion in community development initiatives since inception, supporting roads, drainage systems, healthcare facilities, educational programmes, scholarships, youth empowerment, solar-powered street lighting, community welfare initiatives and other social investments across its operational communities. He added that the Company dedicates 3% of its gross revenue annually to support sustainable development initiatives for its host communities.

Also speaking at the event, the Asset Manager of Oando, Seyi Fawora, reaffirmed the Joint Venture’s commitment to implementing the HCDT, noting that the partnership remains focused on building stronger, mutually beneficial relationships with host communities.

The representative of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr. Dennis Eyitemi, described the inauguration as a significant milestone in strengthening host community participation in development. He urged members of the Board of Trustees to remain accountable, transparent and committed to promoting the long-term welfare of the communities they represent.

Providing an overview of the HCDT framework, the Delta State Solicitor-General and Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Justice, Omamuzo Irebe, SAN, commended Energia for contributing beyond the statutory requirement prescribed under the Petroleum Industry Act and encouraged members of the Board to place community interests above personal interests while ensuring prudent management of the Trust’s resources.

The ceremony concluded with the swearing-in of the members of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust Board of Trustees. In his acceptance remarks, the Chairman of the Board, Chief Godwin Edeme, pledged the Board’s commitment to working with Energia Limited, Oando Petroleum Development Company and all stakeholders to ensure the effective implementation of the Trust for the benefit of present and future generations.

The establishment of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust represents another milestone in Energia’s long-standing commitment to responsible operations, stakeholder engagement and creating shared value for its host communities through sustainable, transparent and inclusive development. About Energia Limited

Energia Limited is a leading indigenous Nigerian exploration and production company with a proven track record of responsible hydrocarbon development and sustainable value creation. Since achieving First Oil in 2009, Energia has remained committed to operational excellence, environmental stewardship, and meaningful partnerships with its host communities, delivering lasting social and economic impact alongside its business growth.

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Oil, Gas Deals Push Nigeria’s FDI to $4 Billion

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Foreign direct investment (FDI) flow into Nigeria climbed to roughly $4 billion last year, according to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2026.

The report stated that “Inflows to Nigeria rose to about $4 billion, supported mainly by oil and gas–related IPF deals, including a major project valued at about $2 billion.”

The report indicated that Nigeria’s inflows were $1.6 billion in 2024, before increasing to roughly $4 billion (precisely $4.005 billion) in 2025 — reversing a downward trend that had seen inflows dip as low as $895 million in 2022. The figures place Nigeria among a cluster of West and East African economies that bucked a broader continental slowdown

According to the report, Nigeria’s outward investment also rose, from $408 million in 2024 to $1.19 billion in 2025, while its inward FDI stock reached nearly $93 billion by year-end.

“In Nigeria, deals included the sale of Shell’s onshore oil assets to the Nigerian consortium Renaissance Africa Energy and the acquisition of Lafarge Africa by Huaxin Cement of China, signaling both a wave of asset localization in the oil sector and continued Asian appetite for Nigerian industrial assets.

ALSO READ: Global Demand for Nigerian Crude Higher Outstrips Supply – FG

On the Greenfield side, conglomerate Dangote Group emerged as an outward investor in its own right, backing a $3 billion chemicals project in neighboring Ethiopia — one of the 10 largest Greenfield projects announced across the continent in 2025.

Policy shifts also featured prominently in the report’s account of the investment climate. It noted that the government introduced sweeping fiscal reforms during the year, including a new minimum tax regime aligned with international standards.

“Nigeria, for instance, introduced a minimum effective tax rate of 15 per cent for multinational enterprises with revenues exceeding €750 million,” the report noted.

Alongside this, the report observed that Nigeria, together with Cameroon, moved to tighten incentive structures more broadly, as the two countries “replaced broad tax exemptions with tiered tax credits and strict eligibility requirements, such as job creation, local value addition and priority sectors.” Separately, the government rolled out targeted relief for the petroleum sector, introducing “performance-based tax credits for companies in the upstream petroleum industry, linking fiscal benefits to cost efficiency.”

The report also credited Nigeria with using regulatory innovation to court investors beyond the extractive sector.

It pointed to the Federal Government ‘s technology-focused reforms, noting that Nigeria “has used regulatory frameworks to reduce uncertainty for innovative firms,” citing the Startup Act and accompanying central bank rules that let sandboxes allow start-ups to test products with real users before facing the full weight of regulation.

On trade infrastructure, the report named Nigeria as one of five countries — alongside Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Ghana and Togo — that committed under a regional agreement to harmonising customs and border procedures along the Abidjan–Lagos corridor, part of a wider West African push to cut transit times and integrate cross-border trade.

Africa as a whole, according to the report, saw FDI inflows fall sharply from an exceptional 2024, but the report noted that in West Africa, investment “rose in several West African economies, supported mainly by investment in natural resources and energy.”

Courtesy – The Punch

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