Business
China Inflation Below Target as Leaders Start Reform Summit
TOKYO – China’s consumer prices rose less than economists forecast in October and factory-gate deflation deepened for the first time in five months, reducing odds that officials will tighten monetary policy.
The consumer price index rose 3.2 percent in October from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing, compared with the 3.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and September’s 3.1 percent. Industrial-production growth unexpectedly accelerated to 10.3 percent, a separate report showed.
Inflation below the government’s 3.5 percent full-year target may allow Communist Party leaders, gathering today in Beijing for an economic summit, to take a measured approach to reining in credit growth. State media have called the meeting a “watershed” for reform as China seeks to move to an economy focused on domestic demand.
“Both CPI inflation and economic growth still remain within Beijing policy makers’ comfort zone,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. While there’s “no need for either easing or tightening in the coming months,” the central bank will have to use its tools to keep liquidity stable as money inflows keep rising, Qu said.
The gain in factory output compares with a median estimate of 10 percent in a Bloomberg News survey and September’s 10.2 percent pace. Retail sales rose 13.3 percent in October from a year earlier, the same pace as the previous month, while January-to-October fixed asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 20.1 percent, after a 20.2 percent rate in the first nine months, statistics bureau data showed.
Inflation Estimates
The central bank is scheduled to release money supply and lending numbers by Nov. 15.
Price gains have stayed within the government’s 2013 target of 3.5 percent every month this year. Estimates (CNCPIYOY) for October consumer inflation from 44 analysts ranged from 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The median estimate of 40 economists was for a 1.4 percent drop in producer prices.
Producer prices fell a more-than-projected 1.5 percent, after a 1.3 percent decline the previous month. It was the 20th straight month of declining factory-gate prices, the longest stretch since 2002. “As long as PPI inflation remains negative, there is little pass-through effect to CPI inflation,” Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao, economists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a note.
Food Prices
The October CPI gain was the highest since February when the index also rose 3.2 percent. Food prices rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier, the most since April 2012, while non-food inflation was unchanged from September at 1.6 percent, according to today’s data. Transportation and communications costs fell 0.6 percent, the most in four months.
Competition is helping keep consumer-price gains muted, as Chinese online shopping sites gear up for “Singles Day” sales on Nov. 11 by slashing prices. 360buy Jingdong Inc. began offering half-price Pampers diapers as of Nov. 1 and will slice as much as 70 percent off items including slimming belts and facial moisturizers, according to its website.
The benchmark seven-day repurchase rate climbed 85 basis points to 5.05 percent in October, helping derail a stock market rally and driving the one-year government bond yield to a record high. In June, the Shanghai Composite Index of shares sank 7.7 percent after the repo rate touched an all-time high of 10.77 percent.
Comfort Zone
While inflation remains in a “comfortable zone,” it has begun to “flag an alarm for the monetary authority to keep a close watch on the trend,” Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong International Securities Group in Hong Kong, said in a note.
Yuan positions at Chinese financial institutions accumulated from foreign-exchange purchases, a gauge of capital inflows, rose in September by the most in five months, data showed last month.
Among other recent signs of potential tightening, the People’s Bank of China said in a report this week that the economy “may see a decline in leverage” over a relatively long period of time, a suggestion that UBS AG said hadn’t been previously mentioned by a government economic agency. The PBOC also said that “we can’t be blindly optimistic about the price situation.”
Meeting Start
Leaders including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang started a four-day gathering today, the third full meeting of the party’s current Central Committee, to chart out China’s long-term economic policies.
Li said in remarks published earlier this week that “there’s a lot of money in the ‘pool’ and issuing more money may lead to inflation,” citing the nation’s outstanding M2 money supply of more than 100 trillion yuan ($16 trillion) as of March, about double gross domestic product.
China’s economic growth rebounded to 7.8 percent in the third quarter from 7.5 percent in the second quarter. Data yesterday showed China’s exports increased a more-than-estimated 5.6 percent in October from a year earlier, rebounding from September’s unexpected drop. Imports rose 7.6 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $31.1 billion, the biggest this year.
BLOOMBERG
The President of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), Aliko Dangote, has expressed support for the economic reforms of the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market.
The industrialist gave the commendation in Lagos on Monday at the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) during the formal launch of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP).
He also commended Tinubu’s leadership and said the Dangote Refinery was supporting the administration’s efforts.
“I want to thank him for taking a lot of bold steps by removing the subsidy and democratising the exchange rate…” Dangote said.
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He assured that the Dangote Group would continue working with the government to contribute to Nigeria’s development.
“So, we thank you very much for your leadership and we will continue to partner with the government to ensure that we make this country great and we make Africa great,” he said.
Dangote, a former president of the Nigerian Exchange, also expressed surprise at the transformation of the bourse, saying he had not expected it to reach its current level.
“I was the president of this exchange. Even when I was inviting people to come and help me turn the exchange around to make it a world-class exchange, I never thought this exchange would be at this level in 2026,” he said.
He revealed that a more grand ceremony would be held with Tinubu in attendance.
The refinery’s IPO, which opened on Monday, offers 4.1 billion new ordinary shares at N525 per share, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares valued at N5,250.
The offer is scheduled to close on 13 October 2026, subject to the terms of the prospectus.
President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, has described the Initial Public Offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals as a “People’s IPO” as the N2.15tn offer officially opened on the Nigerian Exchange on Monday.
Dangote sounded the gong at the NGX trading floor in Lagos to formally open the offer, marking a major milestone for Nigeria’s capital market.
The IPO comprises 4.1 billion new ordinary shares priced at N525 per share, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares valued at N5,250.
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The offer, which opened on September 14, 2026, is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026, subject to the terms contained in the prospectus.
Speaking after sounding the gong, Dangote said the offering was aimed at widening public participation in the ownership of the refinery.
“We fully share all our prosperity with the people. That’s why we call this ‘People’s IPO’. We know the journey has actually just started.
“It’s not only about the refinery.”
The Dangote Refinery IPO is the first refinery offering to investors on the Nigerian stock market in the 66-year history of the Nigerian Exchange.
The offer is open to retail, institutional and eligible African investors, providing members of the public with an opportunity to acquire an interest in one of Africa’s largest industrial projects.
Dangote also disclosed that the IPO was part of a broader plan by the Dangote Group to list more of its companies on the capital market.
He said the group intended to list every company that would operate under its umbrella in the future.
“We, as a group, will list every single company that will operate. I don’t know about the others, but I know our own market cap, even at a 10 times P/E ratio by 2030, should not be less than $350 billion,” he said.
The businessman added that the Nigerian Exchange would provide a platform for the group to pursue listings on other international exchanges.
“From this exchange, then we can go to any other place.
“So, Nigeria and Africa is our base. We want to make sure that we join our continent.”
The Dangote Refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos, has been positioned as a major investment in Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and efforts to reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.
The opening ceremony was attended by Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, NGX Group Chairman Umaru Kwairanga, the Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi Ojaja II, Zenith Bank founder Jim Ovia and other dignitaries.
The N2.15tn IPO will remain open until October 13, 2026, subject to the terms contained in the prospectus.
A 0.4 percent increase from the 1.67 million bpd recorded in July saw Nigeria’s crude and condensate production rise to 1,677,777 barrels per day in August 2026.
The growth, disclosed in a statement by Head, Media and Corporate Communications, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Eniola Akinkuotu, on Sunday.
Another interesting aspect of the report is that it shows Nigeria’s consistent compliance with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil quota for the fourth consecutive month.
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According to the regulator, crude oil production, excluding condensates, stood at 1,500,190 barrels per day in August.
The report revealed that Nigeria meeting her OPEC quota for the fourth consecutive month, reflects continued efforts by operators to restore affected production capacity and address operational bottlenecks.
The latest increase followed the resolution of operational challenges involving the Single Buoy Mooring at the Erha field, which had affected production performance in the preceding month.
The NUPRC said the restoration of normal evacuation and production operations at the asset contributed positively to the overall output recorded during the month.
The statement read, “The NUPRC attributed the modest improvement in August production largely to the resolution of the Single Buoy Mooring operational challenges at the Erha field, which had adversely impacted production performance in the preceding month.
“The restoration of normal evacuation and production operations at the asset contributed positively to overall production volumes during the period under review.”
The regulator added that production activities across most other producing assets remained relatively stable, with operators sustaining measures aimed at improving efficiency, maintaining asset integrity and reducing operational disruptions.
According to the commission, the lowest daily crude oil and condensate production recorded in August was 1.64 million bpd, while the highest stood at 1.71 million bpd.
A breakdown of production by terminals and streams showed that the Bonny Terminal recorded the highest average output during the month, accounting for 320.04 thousand bpd.
Forcados Terminal followed with 317.40 thousand bpd, while the Qua Iboe Terminal recorded an average of 171.72 thousand bpd of crude oil and condensates.
Escravos Oil Terminal posted a daily average of 131.71 thousand bpd, while Bonga ranked fifth among the leading producing terminals with an average of 92.50 thousand bdp of crude oil.
The August output represented an increase of 6,777 bpd from July’s 1,671,000 barrels per day, based on the rounded July figure. It was also 57,621 bpd, lower than the 1,735,398 bpd recorded in June.
The June figure represented a decline of about 3.3 per cent in August when compared with the latest available June production data.
The NUPRC said the August performance reflected the industry’s continued efforts to resolve operational constraints and restore affected production capacity.
It stated, “While the increase recorded in August was modest, it reflects the industry’s continued efforts to address operational bottlenecks and restore affected production capacity.
“Stakeholders remain focused on enhancing asset reliability, improving operational resilience and advancing intervention programs to support sustained production growth in the coming months.”
The regulator further emphasised the importance of timely intervention, effective asset management and collaboration among industry stakeholders in safeguarding the country’s crude oil production capacity.
Nigeria’s oil production has remained a major focus of government efforts to increase revenue, improve foreign exchange earnings and strengthen the country’s ability to meet its OPEC production quota.
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