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China Inflation Below Target as Leaders Start Reform Summit

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TOKYO – China’s consumer prices rose less than economists forecast in October and factory-gate deflation deepened for the first time in five months, reducing odds that officials will tighten monetary policy.

The consumer price index rose 3.2 percent in October from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing, compared with the 3.3 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and September’s 3.1 percent. Industrial-production growth unexpectedly accelerated to 10.3 percent, a separate report showed.

Inflation below the government’s 3.5 percent full-year target may allow Communist Party leaders, gathering today in Beijing for an economic summit, to take a measured approach to reining in credit growth. State media have called the meeting a “watershed” for reform as China seeks to move to an economy focused on domestic demand.

China“Both CPI inflation and economic growth still remain within Beijing policy makers’ comfort zone,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. While there’s “no need for either easing or tightening in the coming months,” the central bank will have to use its tools to keep liquidity stable as money inflows keep rising, Qu said.

The gain in factory output compares with a median estimate of 10 percent in a Bloomberg News survey and September’s 10.2 percent pace. Retail sales rose 13.3 percent in October from a year earlier, the same pace as the previous month, while January-to-October fixed asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 20.1 percent, after a 20.2 percent rate in the first nine months, statistics bureau data showed.

Inflation Estimates

The central bank is scheduled to release money supply and lending numbers by Nov. 15.
Price gains have stayed within the government’s 2013 target of 3.5 percent every month this year. Estimates (CNCPIYOY) for October consumer inflation from 44 analysts ranged from 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The median estimate of 40 economists was for a 1.4 percent drop in producer prices.
Producer prices fell a more-than-projected 1.5 percent, after a 1.3 percent decline the previous month. It was the 20th straight month of declining factory-gate prices, the longest stretch since 2002. “As long as PPI inflation remains negative, there is little pass-through effect to CPI inflation,” Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao, economists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a note.

Food Prices

The October CPI gain was the highest since February when the index also rose 3.2 percent. Food prices rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier, the most since April 2012, while non-food inflation was unchanged from September at 1.6 percent, according to today’s data. Transportation and communications costs fell 0.6 percent, the most in four months.

Competition is helping keep consumer-price gains muted, as Chinese online shopping sites gear up for “Singles Day” sales on Nov. 11 by slashing prices. 360buy Jingdong Inc. began offering half-price Pampers diapers as of Nov. 1 and will slice as much as 70 percent off items including slimming belts and facial moisturizers, according to its website.

The benchmark seven-day repurchase rate climbed 85 basis points to 5.05 percent in October, helping derail a stock market rally and driving the one-year government bond yield to a record high. In June, the Shanghai Composite Index of shares sank 7.7 percent after the repo rate touched an all-time high of 10.77 percent.

Comfort Zone

While inflation remains in a “comfortable zone,” it has begun to “flag an alarm for the monetary authority to keep a close watch on the trend,” Hu Yifan, chief economist at Haitong International Securities Group in Hong Kong, said in a note.
Yuan positions at Chinese financial institutions accumulated from foreign-exchange purchases, a gauge of capital inflows, rose in September by the most in five months, data showed last month.

Among other recent signs of potential tightening, the People’s Bank of China said in a report this week that the economy “may see a decline in leverage” over a relatively long period of time, a suggestion that UBS AG said hadn’t been previously mentioned by a government economic agency. The PBOC also said that “we can’t be blindly optimistic about the price situation.”

Meeting Start

Leaders including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang started a four-day gathering today, the third full meeting of the party’s current Central Committee, to chart out China’s long-term economic policies.
Li said in remarks published earlier this week that “there’s a lot of money in the ‘pool’ and issuing more money may lead to inflation,” citing the nation’s outstanding M2 money supply of more than 100 trillion yuan ($16 trillion) as of March, about double gross domestic product.

China’s economic growth rebounded to 7.8 percent in the third quarter from 7.5 percent in the second quarter. Data yesterday showed China’s exports increased a more-than-estimated 5.6 percent in October from a year earlier, rebounding from September’s unexpected drop. Imports rose 7.6 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $31.1 billion, the biggest this year.

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Dangote Refinery Pioneers Honeywell’s AI Technology

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) is set to become the first industrial facility to deploy Honeywell Technologies’ newly launched artificial intelligence platform, in a major technological advancement projected to deliver more than $60 million in annual gross operational benefits at full refining capacity.

The deployment of the platform, known as Forge Plant Cognition, will position the Lekki-based refinery at the forefront of AI-driven industrial operations, combining Honeywell Technologies’ process engineering expertise with NVIDIA’s artificial intelligence capabilities and Dell Technologies’ computing infrastructure to improve refining efficiency, maximise output and strengthen operational reliability. Announcing the development, Honeywell Technologies said the new platform would make its global debut at Dangote Refinery, one of the world’s largest refineries, as part of efforts to unlock greater value from existing industrial assets and transform how complex refining and petrochemical facilities are operated.

According to preliminary assessments, the technology could generate operational benefits exceeding 29 cents per barrel at the refinery. At full-capacity throughput, Honeywell estimates that the improvements could translate into more than $60 million in annual gross benefits. The company, however, clarified that the projection was specific to the Dangote facility, based on preliminary data and subject to actual operating conditions. The development represents another significant step in Dangote Refinery’s technological evolution, as the company moves beyond the construction and commissioning of a world-class industrial complex towards the deployment of advanced digital systems designed to maximise productivity, strengthen competitiveness and support its ambitious expansion programme.

READ ALSO: NALPGAM Preaches Innovation, Safety to LPG Operators

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of DPRP, David Bird, said the decision to adopt the technology reflected the refinery’s commitment to operational excellence, innovation and the development of Nigerian engineering talent.

“We chose Honeywell Technologies’ Forge Plant Cognition because the platform can deliver unrivaled industrial expertise combined with differentiated AI capabilities to help us optimize performance, unlock greater value from our operations and evolve how we operate our assets,” Bird said. “This investment reinforces our commitment to operational excellence, advancing technology and developing Nigerian talent to operate at world-class standards.”

Unlike conventional industrial monitoring systems that primarily analyse operating data and generate recommendations, Forge Plant Cognition is designed to integrate real-time plant information with engineering knowledge, advanced calculations, and physics-based models to identify operational constraints and support faster, more informed decisions. The technology will enable refinery engineers and operators to detect potential equipment and process problems before they escalate, identify bottlenecks affecting production and recommend corrective actions to improve throughput, product yields, and overall plant performance.

Honeywell explained that the platform would focus on three critical areas: identifying opportunities to improve refining margins, protecting production by reducing unplanned downtime, and making specialised engineering expertise more readily available to plant personnel. By combining these capabilities, the system is expected to help operators extract greater value from existing equipment while strengthening the reliability and efficiency of interconnected refining processes. Forge Plant Cognition would help transfer specialised process knowledge into AI-powered tools accessible to local engineers and operators, enabling them to solve complex problems more efficiently and develop advanced industrial capabilities. The initiative supports Dangote Refinery’s objective of building a workforce comprising more than 70 per cent Nigerians, while progressively reducing dependence on external technical expertise.

President of Honeywell Technologies UOP, Rajesh Gattupalli, described the collaboration with Dangote as a demonstration of the potential of artificial intelligence to transform large-scale industrial operations.

“Industrial plants are among the most complex operating environments in the world, with enormous potential to realize greater performance and value using digital technologies and connected solutions,” Gattupalli said. “By collaborating with Dangote to launch Forge Plant Cognition, we are demonstrating how AI can help transform industrial operations, driving new levels of productivity, reliability and profitability at significant scale.”

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Standard Chartered Inks Deal for Shell Gas Sale

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Standard Chartered says it acted as the sole financial adviser to Shell International Limited on the sale of Shell Nigeria Gas Limited to Vaaris Energy Limited, in a transaction expected to be completed in the first half of 2027.

The bank disclosed this in a statement announcing its advisory role in the transaction, which involves one of Nigeria’s leading gas distribution platforms.

Shell entered into an agreement to sell the business on 13 October, 2026, with the transaction expected to provide Vaaris Energy with an established gas infrastructure network serving industrial and commercial customers.

Shell Nigeria Gas provides gas supply solutions to businesses through its extensive distribution infrastructure, positioning the company to benefit from growing domestic gas demand.

READ ALSO: NALPGAM Preaches Innovation, Safety to LPG Operators

Standard Chartered explained that it provided strategic and financial advice throughout the transaction, managing the entire sale process, including transaction preparation and positioning, buyer engagement, deal structuring, negotiations, due diligence coordination and transaction documentation.

Commenting on the transaction, the Chief Executive Officer and Head of Coverage for Africa at Standard Chartered, Dalu Ajene, stated that Nigeria’s gas sector had an important role to play in supporting the country’s economic ambitions and meeting rising domestic energy demand.

“Nigeria’s gas sector has an important role to play in supporting the country’s economic ambitions and meeting growing domestic energy demand. Across Africa, investment in critical energy infrastructure is essential to unlocking industrial growth and long-term development, and this transaction demonstrates the role strategic investment can play in advancing that opportunity. At Standard Chartered, connecting our clients in Nigeria and across Africa to global capital and investors remains a priority. We are pleased to have supported Shell by bringing together the strength of our international network, deep local knowledge and sector expertise.”

The Head of Mergers and Acquisitions for Africa at Standard Chartered, Yemisi Deji-Bejide, said the transaction demonstrated the bank’s capacity to execute complex deals by combining international expertise with local market knowledge.

“We are proud to have advised Shell on the sale of one of Nigeria’s leading gas distribution platforms. As sole financial adviser, we brought together end-to-end M&A execution, deep sector expertise and strong buyer connectivity. This transaction demonstrates the strength of our Africa M&A franchise and our ability to combine global capabilities with local market insight to execute complex, strategically important transactions for our clients.”

The bank said the transaction supported Shell’s ongoing portfolio optimisation strategy while providing a platform for the continued development of Shell Nigeria Gas under Vaaris Energy.

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Tinubu Promises to Boost Local Production with NNPC Refineries

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Given the growing capacity of private refiners and their impact on local supplies, Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has assured of his government’s commitment to rehabilitating and repositioning Nigeria’s dormant national refineries.

Represented by the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Patience Oyekunle, at the 20th OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos, on Monday, Tinubu revealed his government’s priorities for the petroleum industry.

He made it clear that the facilities will not be allowed to become stranded investments.

Recall that three government refineries, including the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries, being managed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), have been moribund despite billions of naira spent on turnaround maintenance over the years.

READ ALSO: NUPRC Sets Revocation Date for Undeveloped Oil Licences

Speaking at OTL conference, Tinubu said the government was pursuing a more rigorous and commercially sustainable approach to the rehabilitation of the national refineries, with technical assessments, stronger partnerships and improved operational discipline expected to guide the process.

“At the same time, the government remains committed to ensuring that existing national refining assets are not allowed to become stranded investments.

“We are pursuing a more rigorous, commercially sustainable approach to the rehabilitation and repositioning of our refineries, supported by technical assessment, stronger partnerships, and improved operational discipline,“ she stated.

Tinubu emphasised that the objective is to ensure Nigeria refines more of its crude and a fuel supplier to other nations.

“Our objective is clear. Nigeria must first refine more of its crudes, create more value domestically, and become a reliable supplier of energy to Africa,” he said.

The President’s position comes as Nigeria seeks to increase domestic refining capacity and reduce its historical dependence on imported petroleum products, despite having substantial crude oil resources.

He said the country was transitioning from an industry historically characterised by import dependence and infrastructure constraints to one increasingly driven by domestic refining, private investment, market efficiency, value addition and regional competitiveness.

According to him, the reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) are intended to create a transparent, commercially viable and investment-friendly industry capable of delivering greater value to Nigerians.

“The reforms under the PIA are designed to create a petroleum industry that is transparent, commercially viable, investment-friendly, and capable of delivering value to Nigerians. Today, we are beginning to see the results,” he said.

Tinubu described the emergence of large-scale private refining capacity as an important turning point for Nigeria’s petroleum industry, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as a major development in the country’s ambition to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

He said the refinery had reached its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, strengthening Nigeria’s prospects of supplying refined products to other African countries.

“The emergence of large-scale private refining capacity represents an important turning point. The Dangote Refinery has reached its 650,000-per-day main-plate capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s prospect of becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products and creating opportunities for regional supply,” he said.

The president said the government’s ambition extended beyond increasing crude oil production, stressing that Nigeria needed to develop an energy economy in which its petroleum resources would support industrialisation, manufacturing and other productive activities.

For decades, Nigeria exported crude oil while importing a substantial portion of the petroleum products required to power its economy. Tinubu said his administration wanted to change that pattern by retaining more value within the country through refining, petrochemicals, gas processing and other energy-intensive industries.

He said the government was also seeking to ensure that the country’s oil and gas resources translated into jobs, investment, technology and broader economic prosperity.

“Our commitment is therefore not to simply produce hydrocarbons. It is to create an ecosystem in which hydrocarbons catalyse industrialisation, jobs, investment, technology, and prosperity,” he said.

Tinubu also called on operators across the petroleum value chain to contribute more to domestic industrial development, particularly through investment in local content, technology, infrastructure and human capital.

He said industry stakeholders were expected to take greater responsibility for environmental protection and community development, warning that extracting resources without creating additional value was no longer consistent with the government’s expectations.

“To our industry stakeholders, I say, the era of extracting value without building value is changing. We expect greater investment in local content, technology, infrastructure, human capital, environmental responsibilities, and boost community development,” he said.

The president further urged investors to take advantage of opportunities in Nigeria’s petroleum industry, saying the country remained open to businesses with the technical competence and financial capacity to develop its oil and gas resources.

In his opening speech, the Chairman of the OTL Advisory Board, Adetunji Oyebanji, said Africa’s downstream petroleum industry had made significant progress since the organisation began in 2007, with developments in refining, logistics and market liberalisation expanding the continent’s capacity to meet its energy needs.

Oyebanji said the emergence of large-scale private refining in Nigeria, particularly the Dangote refinery, had changed the prospects for domestic petroleum supply and regional trade.

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