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China’s Economic Slowdown To Hit Nigeria, IMF Warns

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The International Monetary Fund has revealed that China’s diminishing economic growth is poised to impact Nigeria’s economic prospects.

 

The IMF pointed out that due to China’s extensive economic connections with sub-Saharan African countries in the last two decades, Nigeria’s growth may decrease by an average of 0.5 percentage points.

 

Notably, China serves as the largest trading partner for the region, purchasing a significant portion of exports such as metals, minerals, and fuel, while also supplying the majority of manufactured goods and machinery.

 

However, the IMF highlighted that China’s recovery from the pandemic is expected to have a positive ripple effect across Africa. This insight was shared in a post titled ‘China’s Slowing Economy Will Hit Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth’ by the Washington-based lender.

 

It said, “However, China’s recovery from the pandemic has slowed recently due to a property downturn and flagging demand for its manufactured goods as global growth has also slowed.

“This matters for Africa. A one percentage point decline in China’s growth rate could reduce average growth in the region by about 0.25 percentage points within a year, according to the latest Regional Economic Outlook. For oil-exporters, such as Angola and Nigeria, the loss could be 0.5 percentage points on average.”

Additionally, the IMF emphasized that the repercussions of China’s economic slowdown extend to sovereign lending in sub-Saharan Africa, dropping below $1 billion last year, marking the lowest level in nearly two decades. This reduction signifies a departure from substantial infrastructure financing.

The IMF stressed that sub-Saharan African nations must adjust to China’s economic slowdown and decreased economic interactions by enhancing resilience through heightened intra-African trade.

Additionally, the IMF recommended building buffers through tax policy reforms and improvements in revenue administration. The institution underscored the importance of diversifying African economies to ensure sustained future growth.

It added, “The strong demand for minerals that support renewable energy development could provide an opportunity for countries to forge new trade relationships and develop more local processing capabilities. Countries can improve their competitiveness by creating a favorable business environment, investing in infrastructure, and deepening domestic financial markets.”

The Consul General of China in Lagos, Yan Yuging, revealed that the bilateral trade volume between China and Nigeria for the first three quarters of 2023 reached $17.25 billion.

He said, “China is a significant trade partner for Nigeria. According to Chinese customs data, the bilateral trade volume between China and Nigeria reached $23.9bn in 2022, with China’s exports to Nigeria amounting to $22.3bn and imports from Nigeria totaling $1.6bn.”

Given China’s significant role as a major lender in the region, the impact of reduced loans is anticipated to be felt in Angola, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia, where China stands as the largest bilateral official lender.

Data from the Debt Management Office disclosed that total borrowing from China increased to $4.29 billion by the end of December 2022.

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Savannah Energy Provides Unaudited FY 2024 Trading Updates 

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Savannah Energy Inks New Gas Sales Agreement with Notore

 

Savannah Energy has shared a trading update on its Nigerian operations and other markets in Africa, including up-to-date cash collections in its Nigerian business.

According to the update, made available on Thursday in Lagos, its gross production in Nigeria averaged 23.1 Kboepd for FY 2024, broadly in line with the prior year’s 23.6 Kboepd, of which 88% was gas (FY 2023: 91%).

On the update, CEO of Savannah Energy, Andrew Knott, said, “I am pleased to provide a FY trading update which demonstrates the continued progress we have made in 2024, a year which saw the highest level of cash collections ever recorded by our Nigerian business. 2025 is expected to be an exciting year for our Company: we have a large planned operational programme in Nigeria which is anticipated to enhance both our oil and gas production levels and capacity; we intend to progress our R3 East oil development project in Niger; we continue to pursue key acquisitions in the upstream oil and gas space; and we continue to seek to build our power business.

“Fundamentally, Savannah remains unequivocally an “AND” company, seeking to deliver strong performance both for the short AND long term across multiple fronts, and pursuing growth opportunities in both the hydrocarbon AND power sectors.”

The update It also shows that it generated a Total Income of US$393.6 million in 2024, compared to FY 2023’s US$289.8 million. This consists of Total Revenues of US$258.7 million and Other operating income of US$134.9 million.

The report also shows that Savannah’s FY 2024 Total Revenues were ahead of the previously issued financial guidance of greater than US$245 million, while FY 2024 financial guidance is reiterated for Operating expenses plus administrative expenses at ‘up to US$75 million’. The company expects its FY 2024 capital expenditure to come in lower than planned (previously guided at ‘up to US$50 million’) due to the phasing of spend.

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According to the update, Savannah’s cash collections in 2024 amounted to US$248.5 million, a slight increase from the US$206 million it received in 2023. The report further shows that its cash balances as at 31 December 2024 stood at US$32.6 million, compared to the 31 December 2023 figure of US$107.0 million.

The report shows that the company’s midstream subsidiary, Accugas Limited, had as at 31 December 2024 drawn down on its NGN332 billion of the NGN Transitional Facility, with the resulting funds being converted to US$, which, along with cash held, was used to partially prepay the existing Accugas US$ Facility, leaving a balance as at 31 December 2024 of approximately US$212.3 million.

The report also provided new updates on Accugas’ US$45 million Uquo Central Processing Facility (“Uquo CPF”) compression project in Nigeria, noting that its commissioning which will enable the expansion of gas production in the medium term is well underway.

The report highlighted the progress being made in the procurement process of long lead equipment in Nigeria for a potential two-well drilling campaign on the Uquo Field in H2 2025, with an additional gas development well expected to add up to 80 MMscfpd of supplemental production capacity and a potential exploration well targeting an Unrisked Gross gas initially in place (“GIIP”) of 154 Bscf (25.7 MMboe) of incremental gas resources.

The update shows that progress is also being made in the planned Savannah acquisition of Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Nigeria Limited, whose principal asset is a 49% non-operated interest in the Stubb Creek oil and gas field (“Stubb Creek”), with regulatory approval and completion being targeted in Q1 2025. Following the completion of the acquisition, Savannah intends to commence an expansion programme which is anticipated to increase Stubb Creek gross production from an average of 2.7 Kbopd in 2024 to approximately 4.7 Kbopd.

In Niger, Savannah continues to seek to progress its 35 MMstb (Gross 2C Resources) R3 East oil development in South-East Niger, while it continues to push for a potential alternative transaction structure to acquire a material stake in producing oil and gas assets in South Sudan as previously announced on 20 December 2024.

On the renewable energy front, the update shows that Savannah has up to 696 MW of renewable energy projects currently in motion, including the up to 250 MW Parc Eolien de la Tarka wind farm project in Niger and the up to 95 MW Bini a Warak hybrid hydroelectric and solar project in Cameroon. A firm believer in Africa’s transition to renewable energy, Savannah continues to target a portfolio of up to 2 GW+ of power projects in motion by the end of 2026.

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Nigeria Can Achieve 5.5% GDP Growth – NESG

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The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that the country has the potential to achieve a 5.5% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if critical policy reforms are sustained.

This was disclosed on Thursday during the launch of the NESG’s 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook report.

Speaking at the event, the Chief Economist and Director of Research & Development at NESG, Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, highlighted the need for more efficient policy implementation to unlock Nigeria’s economic potential.

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“We believe at the optimal level, if we embark on more efficient policy reforms, the Nigerian economy has the potential, the GDP to end up at 5.5 per cent, and we believe that this is achievable,” Omisakin stated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

More to follow………. 

 

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CBN Approves Release Of Nigerian FX Code

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CBN Prohibits Foreign Banks' Rep Offices From Banking Operations

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced the release of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange (FX) Code, a set of guidelines designed to promote ethical conduct among authorized dealers in the country’s FX market.

In a statement, the apex bank disclosed that the official launch of the Code would take place on Tuesday, January 28, 2025, at the CBN Head Office Auditorium in Abuja.

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“The Central Bank of Nigeria has approved the release of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange (FX) Code as a guideline to the banking industry to promote the ethical conduct of authorised dealers in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market,” the statement read.

The introduction of the FX Code is expected to enhance transparency, accountability, and professionalism within Nigeria’s foreign exchange ecosystem, aligning it with global best practices.

The event is anticipated to attract key stakeholders in the financial and banking sectors, as well as representatives from authorized FX-dealing institutions across the country.

 

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