Business
FDI in Sub Saharan Africa on the rise – Report
JOHANNESBURG – Africa’s share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) projects has reached the highest level in a decade, according to Executing Growth, EY’s 2014 Africa Attractiveness Survey.
The report combines an analysis of international investment into Africa since 2003, with a 2014 survey of over 500 global business leaders about their views on the potential of the African market. The latest data shows that while there has been a decline in FDI project numbers from 774 in 2012 to 750 in 2013, primarily due to ongoing uncertainty in North Africa, they remain easily in excess of the pre-crisis average of 390 projects per year.
There is a noticeable divide between FDI trends in North Africa versus Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). While FDI projects in North Africa declined by nearly 30%, projects in SSA increased by 4.7%, reversing the decline of 2012. This further widened the gap between the two sub regions, with SSA’s share of FDI projects exceeding 80% for the first time.
While the UK remains the lead investor into the continent, intra-African investment continues to steadily rise. Investors are also looking beyond the more established markets of South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya to expand their operations, as well as moving into more consumer-related sectors as Africa’s middle class expands.
Ajen Sita, Chief Executive Officer, EY Africa, comments, “Africa’s share of global FDI projects has grown steadily over the past decade and it is a promising sign that investors are now looking across the continent and to new sectors. Further regional integration and infrastructure development should continue to entice investors to the exciting investment opportunities that Africa can offer.”
There was significant movement in the list of top 10 countries by FDI projects in 2013. Only South Africa and Nigeria retained their first and third positions from 2012 with 142 projects and 58 projects, respectively. However, FDI projects in both these countries witnessed a slight decline. Countries such as Kenya with 68 projects, Ghana with 58 and Mozambique with 33 all moved up the ranks.
Zambia and Uganda were the new entrants in the top 10 list in 2013 with 25 and 21 projects respectively, an increase of more than 20%. In contrast, North African countries such as Morocco, Tunisia (ranked 8th in 2012) and Egypt slipped on the rankings.
In 2013, both West and East Africa surpassed North Africa for the first time, becoming the second and third most attractive sub regions in Africa after Southern Africa.
UK leads investment into the continent
The UK became the clear leader in 2013 with 104 projects, while the US fell from joint first place to second place with 78 projects, a 20% decline from last year. South Africa, the third largest investor, directed 63 investment projects into the rest of Africa, a 16% decline on last year but a significant increase from pre-crisis levels when it registered on average 12 projects. There was a sharp uptake in FDI projects by Spanish and Japanese companies with increases of 52% and 77%, respectively.
Intra-African investment is gaining momentum. African investors nearly tripled their share of FDI projects over the last decade, from 8% in 2003 to 22.8% in 2013. This growth is fuelled by the need for improved regional value chains and strengthening regional integration. Another driver of growth is the African investors’ understanding of the market and of the potential opportunities and challenges.
Michael Lalor, EY’s Lead Partner Africa Business Center, comments, “External investors supply long-term capital, skills and technology, and intra-African investment creates a virtuous circle that encourages greater foreign investment.”
Significant shift away from extractive industries towards consumer related sectors
The top three sectors – technology, media and telecoms (TMT) with 150 projects, retail and consumer products (RCP) with 131 projects and financial services with 112 projects – accounted for more than 50% of the total projects in 2013. During the year, RCP overtook financial services to become the second most attractive sector in Africa.
FDI projects in the real estate, hospitality and construction sector increased by 63%, making the sector the fifth most attractive, up three positions from 2012. On the other hand, for the first time ever in 2013, mining and metals exited the top ten sectors when measured by FDI project numbers.
When asked about the three sectors that would offer the highest growth potential for Africa in the next two years, investors highlighted the rising importance of agriculture which ranked only marginally behind mining and metals. Increasingly, infrastructure is also perceived as a key growth sector as well as consumer-facing industries including financial services, telecommunications and consumer products.
Michael comments, “Although perceptions indicate that resource driven sectors are expected to remain the industries with the highest potential over the next two years, the actual numbers show that infrastructure and consumer-facing sectors will increase in prominence as the middle class expands and consumer spending on discretionary goods increases.”
Africa’s perceived attractiveness relative to other regions has improved dramatically over the past few years. The overall survey results show that Africa has moved from third last position in 2011, to become the second-most attractive investment destination in the world, behind North America.
Sixty percent of survey respondents said that there had been an improvement in Africa’s investment attractiveness over the past year, up four percentage points from last year’s survey.
Ajen comments, “The good news in this year’s survey is that perceptions about the continent seem to be shifting. For the first time, Africa is seen as the second most attractive investment destination in the world. It has strong fundamentals to encourage investment including steady democracy and macroeconomic growth; an improving business environment; rising consumer class; abundant natural resources and infrastructure development.”
However, there remains a stubborn perception gap between those already operating on the continent and those who are not yet present. For the first time, this year’s survey shows that companies with a presence on the continent perceive Africa to be the most attractive investment destinationin the world. In stark contrast, those with no business presence in Africa still view the continent as the world’s least attractive investment destination.
Seventy-three percent of those who are already established in the region believe Africa’s attractiveness has improved over the past year versus 39% who are not established.
Africa’s cities are now emerging as the hotspots of economic and investment activity on the continent. Nearly 70% of respondents stressed the significance of cities and urban centers in their investment strategy in Africa.
In terms of perception, city attractiveness closely maps country appeal. In SSA, half of the respondents quote Johannesburg as the most attractive city in which to do business, ahead of Cape Town. Nairobi and Lagos are ranked as third and fourth most attractive cities, respectively. In North Africa, Casablanca, Cairo and Tunis are perceived as the top three cities in which to do business.
Investors highlighted that in order to attract greater investments, cities need to focus on the following critical factors: infrastructure (77%), consumer base (73%), local labor cost and productivity (73%) and a skilled workforce (73%).
Ajen concludes, “Africa’s stronger investment attractiveness is best explained by its own sustained growth rates in the context of slower global growth. Africa’s growth prospects are likely to remain solid, as an urbanizing and rising middle class drives demand for consumer products and improved services.”
Nigeria’s economic fortune is benefiting from the Middle East crisis, as the impact of capital inflows from stronger crude oil earnings has seen her foreign reserves climb to record $53.1 billion, beating the $51.04 billion year-end target.
Data available on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) website indicated that the reserves closed at $53.1 billion on August 24, which is the highest level in almost 18 years.
Any analyses of the growth shows that the difference in reserves position places the Nigerian economy in good stead, because it can cover over 12 months import.
It is noteworthy that Nigeria’s external reserves fuel the CBN’s capacity to support the local currency and meet external obligations, have continued to rise steadily, since the face-off between the United States and Iran.
Further analysis of the data displayed by the CBN showed that the liquid portion of the external reserves stood at $52.5 billion.
Biztellers reports that Brent crude traded around $87 per barrel, within the week, well above Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget benchmark of $64.85.
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With the Middle East crisis not showing signs of abating, analysts believe the price rebound would largely bolster Nigeria’s fiscal revenues.
The line of thought is popular among those who know, because as a crude oil exporter, Nigeria will continue to earn more petrodollars, which they argue would support the domestic currency – naira’s stability, while pumping the volume of external reserves.
In its economic projections for 2026, the CBN targeted stronger oil earnings, foreign exchange market reforms and improved external capital inflows to achieve the year-end reserves projection.
According to analysts, the current reserves position reinforces the steady growth in Nigeria’s external buffers.
The founder/Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, earlier hinted at a positive outlook for Nigeria’s external reserves as he does not see anything derailing the forex and fiscal reforms that have brought about stability and improvement in external reserves, as reported by The Nation.
Yusuf said: “Well, the outlook for me is positive because I don’t see anything derailing these forex reforms, fuel subsidy etc. It is these reforms that have brought about stability.”
The CBN data further showed that Nigeria’s external reserves have maintained a steady upward surge in recent months.
The reserves started June at $49.80 billion and crossed the $50 billion mark by June 5, reaching $50.12 billion.
On June 15, reserves had increased further to $50.81 billion before rising to the current position. The reserves stood at $51.9 billion on July 31, and continued.
The sustained increase reflects stronger foreign exchange inflows and improved liquidity conditions in the country’s external sector.
The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said: “This strong buffer continues to reinforce investor confidence in the Nigerian economy and support exchange rate stability.”
The CBN’s decision to clear over $7 billion unsettled FX backlogs raised investors’ confidence in the economy, supporting dollar inflows and foreign reserves accretion, Cardoso added.
The CBN boss had explained that although he had no idea where the fund for the backlog clearance would come from, when he assumed office, he believed it was the right thing to do, and gave investors his word.
He said: “Credibility is at the heart of any central bank. If you don’t have credibility, people do not trust you and they do not invest in your economy. When I took office, I made a promise we would pay the backlog, the verifiable backlog of monies that were owed by Nigeria to third parties.
“And it was, at the time, estimated at over $7 billion US dollars. And to be honest with you, I had no idea how I was going to do it, but I just felt it was not something to be negotiated.”
Cardoso explained that Nigeria needed to ensure that its integrity is maintained. Analysts believe the higher reserve level could enhance the CBN’s capacity to support exchange rate stability and meet external obligations.
Up to 30% equity in the upcoming Dangote Refinery in Kenya, has been placed on the table for East African countries, which makes about $1.5 billion worth of the planned project available to regional investors.
David Ndii, Kenyan President William Ruto’s economic adviser, disclosed this on Thursday at a capital markets forum in Nairobi, where he said Kenya would take a 10% stake while Ethiopia and Rwanda had also expressed interest.
Dangote’s planned refinery is expected to be developed in Lamu, a coastal town in southeastern Kenya, though the project was initially proposed for Tanga in Tanzania.
According to the billionaire industrialist, the decision to move the proposed location to Kenya was informed by commercial and technical considerations.
Ndii disclosed that Kenya’s proposed 10% participation would be worth approximately $500 million.
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He said the combined regional participation could amount to about $1.5 billion, with Dangote prepared to support the project if some participating countries are unable to commit as crude off-takers.
“The total for the region is about $1.5 billion,” he said. “I don’t actually see a challenge in doing that, and if some of them are not off-taking we will backstop.”
The proposed regional participation would give East African countries a direct equity interest in a major energy infrastructure project while potentially securing access to refined petroleum products for participating markets.
The United Nations Geoscheme (UNG) for Africa defines Eastern Africa as comprising 18 sovereign countries, alongside two French overseas territories, meaning the proposed 30% allocation could potentially involve a broader regional investor base beyond Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda.
The Nigerian authorities have been called upon to focus on strengthening domestic refining capacity.
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) made the call in a communiqué issued at the end of the three-day PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit (PEALS 2026).
It stressed the need for adequate protection for refineries operating in the country.
The PENGASSAN said Nigeria must reduce the economic inefficiency of exporting crude oil while importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products by creating an environment that supports domestic refining and other value‑adding activities.
The communiqué, signed by the union President, Festus Osifo, and General Secretary, Jerry Amah, stressed the need to protect refineries, including Dangote Refinery and Waltersmith Refinery.
The association said the expansion would enable Nigeria to retain a greater share of the value generated from its petroleum resources while creating jobs, conserving foreign exchange and stimulating industrial development. PENGASSAN linked the growth to wider opportunities in petrochemicals, gas processing and other downstream activities.
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The communiqué reads in part: “The summit called for sustained policies and investments to expand Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and reduce the economic inefficiency of exporting crude oil while importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products. The need to protect refineries (such as Dangote Refinery, Waltersmith Refinery, etc.) within Nigeria’s jurisdiction was emphasised.
“Nigeria must progressively retain more value from its petroleum resources through domestic refining, petrochemicals, gas processing and other value‑adding activities capable of generating employment, conserving foreign exchange and stimulating industrial growth.
“Ultimately, the strength of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry will not be measured merely by the resources beneath the ground, but by the projects delivered, the value created, the Nigerian capabilities developed, the decent jobs sustained and the prosperity generated for the Nigerian people.”
The association also warned that abrupt policy changes, overlapping mandates, repetitive approvals and conflicting directives increase the cost of doing business and weaken Nigeria’s competitiveness for global energy capital.
The PENGASSAN called for faster regulatory approvals, digitalised processes and clearer timelines, arguing that the effectiveness of regulation should be measured by its impact on investment, production, government revenue, job creation and national value rather than simply by the number of licences or approvals issued.
On gas, the PENGASSAN advocated an integrated approach to developing Nigeria’s more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, including investments in processing facilities, pipelines, storage, LNG, LPG and CNG infrastructure. It said gas should be deployed more aggressively for power generation, manufacturing, transportation, fertiliser and petrochemical production.
The association also urged stronger protection of workers’ rights, occupational safety and employment during mergers, acquisitions, divestments and asset transfers, saying sustainable investment requires skilled and fairly treated workers and that increased production must not come at the expense of workers’ lives and wellbeing.
In addition, the PENGASSAN said the next phase of Nigeria’s petroleum industry must focus on execution with measurable targets and clearly assigned responsibilities to ensure policies translate into projects, production, investment and sustainable employment.
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