Business
FDI in Sub Saharan Africa on the rise – Report
JOHANNESBURG – Africa’s share of global foreign direct investment (FDI) projects has reached the highest level in a decade, according to Executing Growth, EY’s 2014 Africa Attractiveness Survey.
The report combines an analysis of international investment into Africa since 2003, with a 2014 survey of over 500 global business leaders about their views on the potential of the African market. The latest data shows that while there has been a decline in FDI project numbers from 774 in 2012 to 750 in 2013, primarily due to ongoing uncertainty in North Africa, they remain easily in excess of the pre-crisis average of 390 projects per year.
There is a noticeable divide between FDI trends in North Africa versus Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). While FDI projects in North Africa declined by nearly 30%, projects in SSA increased by 4.7%, reversing the decline of 2012. This further widened the gap between the two sub regions, with SSA’s share of FDI projects exceeding 80% for the first time.
While the UK remains the lead investor into the continent, intra-African investment continues to steadily rise. Investors are also looking beyond the more established markets of South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya to expand their operations, as well as moving into more consumer-related sectors as Africa’s middle class expands.
Ajen Sita, Chief Executive Officer, EY Africa, comments, “Africa’s share of global FDI projects has grown steadily over the past decade and it is a promising sign that investors are now looking across the continent and to new sectors. Further regional integration and infrastructure development should continue to entice investors to the exciting investment opportunities that Africa can offer.”
There was significant movement in the list of top 10 countries by FDI projects in 2013. Only South Africa and Nigeria retained their first and third positions from 2012 with 142 projects and 58 projects, respectively. However, FDI projects in both these countries witnessed a slight decline. Countries such as Kenya with 68 projects, Ghana with 58 and Mozambique with 33 all moved up the ranks.
Zambia and Uganda were the new entrants in the top 10 list in 2013 with 25 and 21 projects respectively, an increase of more than 20%. In contrast, North African countries such as Morocco, Tunisia (ranked 8th in 2012) and Egypt slipped on the rankings.
In 2013, both West and East Africa surpassed North Africa for the first time, becoming the second and third most attractive sub regions in Africa after Southern Africa.
UK leads investment into the continent
The UK became the clear leader in 2013 with 104 projects, while the US fell from joint first place to second place with 78 projects, a 20% decline from last year. South Africa, the third largest investor, directed 63 investment projects into the rest of Africa, a 16% decline on last year but a significant increase from pre-crisis levels when it registered on average 12 projects. There was a sharp uptake in FDI projects by Spanish and Japanese companies with increases of 52% and 77%, respectively.
Intra-African investment is gaining momentum. African investors nearly tripled their share of FDI projects over the last decade, from 8% in 2003 to 22.8% in 2013. This growth is fuelled by the need for improved regional value chains and strengthening regional integration. Another driver of growth is the African investors’ understanding of the market and of the potential opportunities and challenges.
Michael Lalor, EY’s Lead Partner Africa Business Center, comments, “External investors supply long-term capital, skills and technology, and intra-African investment creates a virtuous circle that encourages greater foreign investment.”
Significant shift away from extractive industries towards consumer related sectors
The top three sectors – technology, media and telecoms (TMT) with 150 projects, retail and consumer products (RCP) with 131 projects and financial services with 112 projects – accounted for more than 50% of the total projects in 2013. During the year, RCP overtook financial services to become the second most attractive sector in Africa.
FDI projects in the real estate, hospitality and construction sector increased by 63%, making the sector the fifth most attractive, up three positions from 2012. On the other hand, for the first time ever in 2013, mining and metals exited the top ten sectors when measured by FDI project numbers.
When asked about the three sectors that would offer the highest growth potential for Africa in the next two years, investors highlighted the rising importance of agriculture which ranked only marginally behind mining and metals. Increasingly, infrastructure is also perceived as a key growth sector as well as consumer-facing industries including financial services, telecommunications and consumer products.
Michael comments, “Although perceptions indicate that resource driven sectors are expected to remain the industries with the highest potential over the next two years, the actual numbers show that infrastructure and consumer-facing sectors will increase in prominence as the middle class expands and consumer spending on discretionary goods increases.”
Africa’s perceived attractiveness relative to other regions has improved dramatically over the past few years. The overall survey results show that Africa has moved from third last position in 2011, to become the second-most attractive investment destination in the world, behind North America.
Sixty percent of survey respondents said that there had been an improvement in Africa’s investment attractiveness over the past year, up four percentage points from last year’s survey.
Ajen comments, “The good news in this year’s survey is that perceptions about the continent seem to be shifting. For the first time, Africa is seen as the second most attractive investment destination in the world. It has strong fundamentals to encourage investment including steady democracy and macroeconomic growth; an improving business environment; rising consumer class; abundant natural resources and infrastructure development.”
However, there remains a stubborn perception gap between those already operating on the continent and those who are not yet present. For the first time, this year’s survey shows that companies with a presence on the continent perceive Africa to be the most attractive investment destinationin the world. In stark contrast, those with no business presence in Africa still view the continent as the world’s least attractive investment destination.
Seventy-three percent of those who are already established in the region believe Africa’s attractiveness has improved over the past year versus 39% who are not established.
Africa’s cities are now emerging as the hotspots of economic and investment activity on the continent. Nearly 70% of respondents stressed the significance of cities and urban centers in their investment strategy in Africa.
In terms of perception, city attractiveness closely maps country appeal. In SSA, half of the respondents quote Johannesburg as the most attractive city in which to do business, ahead of Cape Town. Nairobi and Lagos are ranked as third and fourth most attractive cities, respectively. In North Africa, Casablanca, Cairo and Tunis are perceived as the top three cities in which to do business.
Investors highlighted that in order to attract greater investments, cities need to focus on the following critical factors: infrastructure (77%), consumer base (73%), local labor cost and productivity (73%) and a skilled workforce (73%).
Ajen concludes, “Africa’s stronger investment attractiveness is best explained by its own sustained growth rates in the context of slower global growth. Africa’s growth prospects are likely to remain solid, as an urbanizing and rising middle class drives demand for consumer products and improved services.”
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has urged the Federal Government to add its member-stations to the petrol discount programme.
It cautioned that the current arrangement could limit the reach and deny vast consumers in underserved communities the benefits of the 30-day discount window.
The PETROAN also urged the FG to allocate at least 30 percent of the discounted petrol volume to outlets operated by its members.
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The calls followed last week’s announcement by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, of a petrol discount at Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) retail outlets, with priority given to public transport operators nationwide.
According to the National Publicity Secretary, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, the exclusion of independent marketers could undermine the programme’s effectiveness, particularly in communities where NNPC retail outlets have limited presence.
He argued that independent marketers, with their extensive nationwide distribution networks, were better positioned to extend the benefits of the intervention to consumers in remote and underserved areas.
“Independent oil marketers have over 90 percent coverage and presence in the nooks and crannies of this country. You are giving NNPC that is situated only in the town. So how do the poor masses, whom you intend to ensure that this petroleum product will alleviate their sufferings, how would they now get it?” Ukadike asked.
He said the association was not opposed to the government’s policy but insisted that independent marketers should be included to ensure wider access to the discounted product.
“But it’s government policies; we are not against government policies, but let it be all-inclusive; let independent marketers be part of it,” he said.
Ukadike also urged the government to extend the discount period to 60 days, citing logistical challenges that could delay the movement of petrol from coastal depots to other parts of the country.
“And the 30 days should be extended to 60 days. Because of the circulation of petroleum products, most times it takes two weeks for a truck to leave Apapa and get to Gombe, Maiduguri, because of the bad road and all the rest of them and loading process,” he added.
Similarly, PETROAN National President, Billy Gillis-Harry, urged the Federal Government to allocate 30 per cent of the discounted petrol volume to the association’s retail outlets to facilitate broader national distribution.
In the bid to transform Tanzania into the East African regional energy hub, the country is on the verge of concluding an agreement with a consortium of energy companies, including a $42 billion LNG project.
It was gathered that the project is designed to tap the 47.13 tcf of gas discovered in Tanzania’s deep offshore fields, part of the country’s estimated 57.54 tcf in total discovered reserves, the sixth-largest in Africa, behind Nigeria, Algeria, Senegal, Mozambique and Egypt.
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Equinor and Shell would be the lead operators, alongside involvement from ExxonMobil Pavilion Energy and Medco Energi, while state oil major, the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC), would also hold an equity stake in the project.
“It’s almost there,” Khamis Mussa Omar, Tanzania’s finance minister, told Reuters.
President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has reaffirmed his commitment to ensuring broad-based participation in the Dangote Refinery’s Initial Public Offering (IPO).
In a statement, the industrialist announced that investors applying with ₦50,000 and below will receive priority consideration as the company seeks to democratize ownership of one of Africa’s most significant industrial assets.
Dangote made the declaration during the final leg of the nationwide IPO roadshow held in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, where investors, financial market experts, business leaders and other stakeholders gathered to discuss the investment opportunity and its implications for Nigeria’s economic transformation.
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Speaking at the event, Dangote emphasised that the IPO should be viewed not merely as an investment opportunity, but as a chance for Nigerians to become shareholders in a landmark enterprise that is reshaping the country’s industrial landscape.
“We will prioritise people with ₦50,000 and below,” Dangote stated, underscoring the Group’s determination to make the offering accessible to small and medium-scale investors across the country.
He noted that while international and African investors had already committed substantial capital to the refinery, the IPO now offers Nigerians a rare opportunity to participate directly in the ownership of a world-class industrial project built on Nigerian soil.
According to him, investing in the refinery goes beyond financial returns, representing a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s future, institutional development, corporate governance standards and industrial capacity.
“African investors have invested in this refinery. Now it is time for Nigerians to invest in themselves and participate in a project that is creating value, jobs and opportunities for generations to come,” he said.
Dangote also encouraged prospective shareholders to adopt a long-term investment perspective, noting that participation in the IPO presents a pathway to wealth creation, portfolio diversification and increased public engagement with the capital market.
He added that wider participation in the stock market would deepen financial literacy, promote a savings and investment culture, and enable more Nigerians to better understand how businesses create value and contribute to economic growth.
The roadshow also featured insightful presentations from leading economists and market analysts on the refinery’s economic significance and the broader opportunities associated with the public offering.
Renowned economist Bismarck Rewane highlighted the enormous economic potential of the South-South region and stressed the need to convert the area’s resource endowment into sustainable prosperity, infrastructure development and improved living standards. He also noted that the IPO presents an opportunity to deepen Nigeria’s capital market by encouraging citizens to participate actively in wealth creation.
Similarly, economist Dr. Muda Yusuf outlined the refinery’s far-reaching impact on economic diversification, domestic value addition, energy security, capital formation and employment generation.
According to Yusuf, the refinery represents far more than a petroleum-processing facility, serving as a catalyst for growth across multiple sectors including petrochemicals, packaging, manufacturing, logistics and other downstream industries.
He further emphasized that policy consistency, regulatory stability and sustained stakeholder engagement remain critical to maintaining investor confidence and attracting long-term capital into Nigeria’s industrial sector.
Speaking on the investment outlook, stakeholders urged prospective investors to consider the company’s operational performance, valuation metrics and long-term fundamentals when evaluating the offer.
Yusuf also described the refinery as a major example of domestic value addition, noting that its extensive local content and industrial linkages would significantly amplify its contribution to the Nigerian economy.
Discussions at the event further highlighted the importance of sound monetary policy, affordable financing and a predictable business environment in supporting investment-led growth and industrial expansion.
The Port Harcourt engagement was particularly significant for the South-South region, with legal luminary and business leader Paul Usoro expressing satisfaction at the level of participation from investors across the region.
“My joy is to see the South-South well represented,” Usoro said, stressing the importance of ensuring that investors from the region take advantage of the opportunity presented by the IPO.
The Port Harcourt event marked the final stop of the nationwide IPO roadshow, concluding a series of engagements designed to deepen public awareness and expand participation in what is widely regarded as one of the most significant capital market offerings in Nigeria’s history.
For Dangote Group, the objective remains clear: to provide Nigerians from all backgrounds with an opportunity to participate in the ownership of a transformative industrial enterprise while contributing to economic growth, employment generation and national development.
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