Finance
How Nigeria can get out of economic crisis – IMF boss
ABUJA – MANAGING Director, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde has asked Nigeria and Nigerians to brace up for harder times, following the massive fall in the price of oil globally, just as she said that the country since inception recorded the slowest pace of growth in the year 2015.
Lagarde, who called for increase in Value Added Tax, VAT, stressed that it has become imperative for the federal government to broaden the country’s tax base against the backdrop that Nigeria has the lowest VAT rate in the African continent. According to her, “the current VAT rate is among the lowest in the world and well below the rates in other ECOWAS members—so some increase should be considered.”
IMF chief, Christine Largarde speaking in Abuja
Although the IMF Managing Director was careful not to endorse the devaluation of naira against major international currencies, she, however, urged the federal government to adopt a flexible monetary policy that will better serve the interest of Nigerians.
Speaking, yesterday, at the National Assembly complex in Abuja during a meeting with Senate President Bukola Saraki and other senators, the IMF boss who called on the federal government to reduce cost of governance, said that the contentious fuel subsidy must be removed to allow government spend on infrastructure, housing, education, health, among others.
She, however, cautioned Nigeria against obtaining loans, noting that it was at the moment affecting the country and subsequent borrowing could hurt the nation’s economy in the long run.
She said: “On recurrent expenditure, efforts should be made to streamline the cost of government and improve efficiency of public service delivery across the federal and sub-national governments. Transfers and tax expenditures should also be addressed. For example, continuing the move already begun by the government in the 2016 budget to eliminate resources allocated to fuel subsidies would allow more targeted spending, including on innovative social programmes for the most needy.”
Fuel subsidies hard to defend
She continued: “Indeed fuel subsidies are hard to defend.“Not only do they harm the planet, but they rarely help the poor. IMF research shows that more than 40 per cent of fuel price subsidies in developing countries accrue to the richest 20 per cent of households, while only 7 per cent of the benefits go to the poorest 20 per cent.
“The move by the government to remove fuel subsidy is good. Those people who need the subsidy can receive cash transfer. Fuel subsidies are hard to defend. Subsidies are no longer good. But I hear that it will hurt the poor. Forty per cent of fuel subsidies in rich countries go to rich families. The people do not really need the subsidy. Look at the number of people who stay in stations trying to buy fuel.
“There is a small acceleration expected in 2016. Growth in the last 10 years has slowed down in Sub-Saharan African countries. Oil prices will remain low and low for a long time. Oil producing countries must factor this in and model their economic policies towards this direction. Nigeria is facing mounting pressure. There will continue to be abundant supply of oil, but low demands. It is very unlikely that we will see any rise anytime soon.
“Private sector investments will be affected. Higher interest rate will continue to rise. Sub-Saharan African countries are facing immense pressure as a result of this. I can feel the hardship and pains as a result of activities of Boko Haram. The resources spent in trying to fight insurgency are supposed to be spent on infrastructure.
“Whatever happens in Nigeria will affect our neighbours because of the trading relationship. There must be a fundamental change in the way government operates. It is not about how to divide proceeds from oil wealth. It is about how to deliver to Nigerians the basic services they deserve. Hard decisions must be made. As the National Assembly considers the 2016 budget, these are the issues they consider.
“Moreover, the experience here in Nigeria of administering fuel subsidies suggests that it is time for a change—think of the regular accusations of corruption, and think of the many Nigerians who spend hours in queues trying to get gas (fuel) so that they can go about their everyday business.
“At the same time, we should not forget the huge challenges facing Nigeria’s state and local governments. These sub-national governments—which account for the bulk of social spending—have only limited tools to manage the impact of declining oil revenues. My message here is to manage better the smaller purse, while building capacity to increase internally generated revenue.”
Nigeria and West Africa
Lagarde then urged Nigeria as a country to build regional cooperation among West African countries because whatever affects Nigeria directly or indirectly affects other countries within the sub region. According to her, “This is always a moment I cherish. My first visit to Nigeria was in late 2011. At that time, Nigeria was emerging from the global economic crisis. Nigeria is the prime destination in Africa. Nigeria has gone through democratic transition which is a good thing. When investors know that transitions can happen successfully, they have more confidence.
“The richness of Nigeria has to do with the population. Nigeria is a huge market and people who are prepared to put their money here look at the population. Oil prices have fallen sharply. The geopolitical tensions have increased. These things are happening at a time the country needed to lift the standard of living of Nigerians. Nigerians are known for their courage and doggedness. Nigeria cannot waste time. There is no time at all.
“Government must step up revenue mobilization and reduce leakages. Every 50 kobo collected from 30 per cent of the country’s revenue goes into the servicing of local and foreign debts. The government must focus on power, transportation and housing. These three areas will create wealth.
They are critically important. Efforts should be made to reduce the cost of governance.
“As I am told, Nollywood currently employs over one million Nigerians. Poverty and inequality still remain high in many parts of the country. Mortality rate is still high.”
Speaking on the need to strengthen institutions of government empowered to tackle corruption-related issues, Ms Lagarde revealed that over $1 trillion was given and received as bribes globally every year. She equally revealed that corruption makes up five per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The IMF boss who urged the National Assembly to come up with laws that will address corruption and block leakages in the system, said: “Corruption is touted to be five per cent of the global GDP and over $1 trillion is said to be given as bribes globally every year. Today, Nigeria is looking ahead. The future is greater than the past in Nigeria. But the sooner the government delivers, the better it will be for Nigeria and Nigerians.”
Nigerian financial sector’s strong, solid, but needs to support real economy
Meanwhile, speaking earlier during a meeting with officials of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and chief executives of financial institutions in Abuja, Lagarde emphasized the need for the financial sector to support the real sector and also contribute to the growth and development of the Nigerian economy.
She said: “We had a productive meeting with representatives of the banking industry and we had the chance to discuss the stability and the sustainability of that particular sector. We also had the chance to debate together how the financial sector can better contribute to financing the economy and supporting the business and the development of growth in Nigeria.
“From my perspective, it was a very productive meeting, very open; we had the chance to really exchange and consider how the system can improve further.
“The financial sector of Nigeria is strong, solid and needs to continue to be so, but it also needs to lend to the real economy and to provide good terms of business.”
Also, Governor of the CBN, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, stated that banks in the country promised to increase their support of the real sector and also play a major role in Nigeria’s economic development.
He said: “On behalf of the people of Nigeria and the bankers, I would like to thank the IMF and Lagarde. We had very fruitful discussions and she gave support to the efforts of the CBN by also trying to encourage Nigerian banks to continue to support the real sector, support SME in Nigeria and indeed, also try as much as possible to boost lending at very concessionary pricing, just as we are doing.
“And the banks themselves have given their words that they would do their best to support, notwithstanding the risk as well as some of the challenges we had witnessed in the past.”
After the meeting at the CBN, Lagarde, who was accompanied by her husband, Xavier Giocanti, also visited Mother Theresa Children Home, Gwarimpa, Abuja, where she made a donation of $7,500, about N1.5 million, to the orphanage on behalf of the IMF.
Speaking at the orphanage, Lagarde congratulated the management of the orphanage for their efforts at caring for the children.
She said this was her second visit to Nigeria as IMF president, but nothing was as touching as whenever she visits orphanage of the likes of Mother Theresa Children Home.
She said: “This is my second visit to Nigeria as head of the IMF and on every occasion I have visited, presidents, governor of the CBN and legislators, but nothing is as touching as a visit like this one.
“And as you say, the future of Nigeria is bigger than its past. But the future is built investing in youth and education. And that future is built one child at a time; and that is what this orphanage demonstrates. No child is left behind and you care about those who are left by the society. And for that, I really want to thank you.
Nigerisa’s Vice President Kashim Shettima
By Modupe Asudo
The 2026 edition of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) Summit got underway in Lagos on Monday with regulatory agencies, project promoters, and financial institutions focused on deepening intra-Africa trade, a unified code of standards for professional qualifications and manufactured goods, and expansion of the frontiers of technological development and innovation.
Critical questions addressed include how AfCFTA’s 1.4 billion population and $3.4 trillion economy could achieve “a strategic shift from fragmented economies towards a globally competitive supply chain system”; how Africa could leverage its vast mineral resources, including copper, iron ore, petrochemical, for domestic production of hardware such as Christmas tree (an assembly of valves, fittings on top of a wellhead to control oil production), and how, hypothetically, Tema Shipyard in Ghana could be designated the vessel construction, assembly and repairs hub for Africa.
Related questions were how cables manufactured in Nigeria, hypothetically, could benefit from favourable trade terms in Angola; what compliance requirements a sacrificial anode producer in Nigeria would have to meet in regard to the rule of origin requirement to export anodes to Algeria for protection and longevity of pipelines, storage tanks, offshore platforms, etc., and what other support levers would be required to achieve energy security for Africa besides expanded refining capabilities in Dangote Refinery, laying of continental gas transmission pipelines, and establishment of industrial parks and other support infrastructure.
In a keynote address at the event, the Executive Secretary of the NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, represented by the Director, Corporate Services, Dr. Abdulmalik Halilu, disclosed that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry embraced AfCFTA and developed a framework for domesticating the policy in 2022.
According to him, implementing AfCFTA in the industry was anchored on three broad pillars, namely, Opportunities Identification, Capacity Development, and Capacity Exportation. In regard to opportunities, he said Nigeria’s strength lies in formidable supply chain in oil field services, refining capacity, oil field logistics base, gas supply pipelines, and a pool of qualified oil field technical workforce.
On capacity development, he pointed out that Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, through the local content law, has developed capabilities in the oil and gas value chain spanning marine vessel asset ownership, fabrication, assembly and installation of production systems, including Christmas trees, pressure vessels, and pumps.
What remains unresolved, described by the Executive Secretary as “the next frontier and the reason for convening the Summit,” is capacity exportation. He posited for consideration a unified work permit and visa that would enable, say, “a welder in Senegal to be engaged in Arlec Engineering Works, Johannesburg, South Africa, for fabrication of heat exchangers, storage tanks, pressure tanks, pressure vessels, etc.”
In examining the importance of achieving continental economic integration, Engr. Ogbe explained that strong regional supply chains would shift Africa from exporting raw materials to producing high-value goods. For pathways to integration, he listed regional value chains, infrastructure connectivity, regulatory harmonization, industrial clusters, and small and medium scale enterprises (SME) inclusion.
He assured industry stakeholders and participants maximum support by the NCDMB.
By Modupe Asudo
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board has outlined a practical framework for positioning Nigeria’s energy sector to access the African Continental Free Trade Area, following a strategic webinar focused on meeting rules-of-origin requirements for continental trade.
The Board held a pre-conference webinar on Wednesday ahead of the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit scheduled for Monday, February 9, 2026.
The engagement was attended by stakeholders from the oil and gas, power and renewable energy sectors, and they addressed how Nigerian products and services can qualify for preferential market access across 54 African countries with a combined gross domestic product of $3.4tn and a population of about 1.4 billion people.
Entitled ‘Meeting AfCFTA Origin Requirements in Energy Trade’, the webinar focussed on one of the major barriers facing Nigerian exporters under AfCFTA — structuring production and operations to meet origin requirements that determine eligibility for duty-free and preferential trade.
The initiative was supported by the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the Acting Director of Planning, Research and Statistics, Mr. Ene Ette, as part of preparations for the forthcoming Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, with the theme ‘Unlocking Africa’s Energy Future through AfCFTA: Trade, Innovation and Regional Integration’.
Speaking during the session, a communications analyst, Joseph Nwokedi, representing the Acting National Coordinator of Nigeria’s AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mrs Patience Okala, stressed the central role of energy in Africa’s economic integration under AfCFTA.
He urged Nigerian companies to shift their focus from Nigeria’s domestic market of about 200m people to the wider continental market of 1.4bn consumers.
“Without energy, there’s no industrialisation. Without energy, regional value chains remain aspirational,” Nwokedi said. “With AfCFTA, energy transforms from a domestic infrastructure issue into a tradable, investable and exportable sector within an integrated African market.”
He noted that even one per cent penetration of the African market translates to about 14m consumers, underscoring the scale of opportunity available to Nigerian energy firms.
The webinar identified four key pathways through which Nigeria’s energy sector can participate in AfCFTA-enabled trade. First, Nigeria’s Electricity Act of 2023 allows independent power producers to supply electricity directly to industrial clusters and export processing zones, positioning power generation as a foundation for trade-ready manufacturing.
Second, the country has submitted commitments under AfCFTA that enable professionals such as engineers, electricians, geophysicists and energy auditors to export services across Africa, subject to mutual recognition of qualifications.
Third, refined petroleum products, gas derivatives, electricity and renewable energy components can be traded across borders under preferential tariffs, provided they meet AfCFTA rules of origin.
Fourth, AfCFTA’s investment protocol, combined with recent domestic reforms, including the Presidential Directives on Investment Incentives for 2024–2025, strengthens Nigeria’s credibility for attracting cross-border investments in power generation, transmission, renewable energy and storage infrastructure.
Delivering a technical presentation, Assistant Comptroller of Customs, Burhan Sulaiman, explained that AfCFTA would eliminate tariffs on 90 per cent of goods traded within the bloc over five to 10 years, with an additional seven per cent liberalised over 13 years. However, he stressed that these benefits were conditional on meeting origin requirements.
“Companies lose benefits because origin was treated as an afterthought,” Sulaiman said. “You must build in origin compliance from the beginning, not while already running your project. Origin determines whether you export duty-free or pay full tariffs.”
He clarified that origin is determined by where economic production takes place, not by company ownership or registration. Foreign-owned companies producing in Nigeria can export as Nigerian origin, while Nigerian companies importing finished goods cannot claim AfCFTA preferences.
Sulaiman explained that products qualify for preferential access through two routes. “Wholly obtained” goods are entirely produced within AfCFTA member states, such as crude oil and natural gas extracted in Nigeria, as well as locally generated electricity regardless of fuel source.
The second route, “substantial transformation”, applies where foreign inputs are used and requires compliance with one of three tests: a change in tariff classification; a value-addition threshold limiting foreign content to between 30 and 60 per cent of ex-works price; or completion of specific prescribed processes such as distillation, cracking or reforming for petroleum products.
He provided sector-specific guidance, noting that in oil and gas, locally extracted crude and gas qualify, just as refined petroleum products that meet processing requirements. However, simple blending, basic distillation operations and modular refineries using imported crude without substantial transformation do not qualify.
In the power sector, he explained, locally generated electricity and regionally manufactured equipment with deep component transformation qualify, while installation-only activities, imported turbines, transformers and switchgear mounting do not.
“For renewables, regional solar cell and battery cell manufacturing with deep component processing qualify,” he said, adding that panel installation alone, simple module assembly and packaging imported batteries do not meet the thresholds.
Sulaiman warned that without regional manufacturing accumulation, power equipment exports fail origin tests.
According to him, the Nigeria Customs Service applies a five-step verification process for origin claims, including confirming accurate HS codes, reviewing production records, testing for minimal operations, verifying African input origins and ensuring consistency across certificates, production records and cost documentation.
“Weak documentation kills origin claims. Even genuinely originating products can be denied if documentation is incomplete or inaccurate,” he noted.
Both speakers emphasised that origin compliance should be treated as a core business strategy rather than a regulatory formality.
“Origin is not paperwork; it is strategy,” Sulaiman said. “It shapes where you locate facilities, how you source inputs, and where you sign regional contracts. Treat it as strategic from day one.”
Nwokedi urged Nigerian firms to act early. “AfCFTA is happening now. Early movers will shape supply chains, standards and partnerships. Are you going to lead, or simply follow?”
Officials also provided updates on AfCFTA implementation, noting that 92 per cent of rules of origin had been agreed, with negotiations ongoing in the textiles and automotive sectors.
An online dispute resolution mechanism has been established to coordinate Customs authorities, standards bodies and complainants.
Nigeria has deployed a fully operational electronic certification system for paperless trade, while Nigerian Customs is introducing risk-management frameworks that could allow exporter self-certification on commercial invoices.
Following a five-year implementation review led by the Minister of Industry and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, government sensitisation efforts have intensified through partnerships with the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture; Women’s Chambers of Commerce; zonal outreach programmes and ‘P3 engagements’ involving the press, private sector and public institutions.
“The government will not trade under AfCFTA — our exporters will,” officials said. “If they win, we win.”
Nigerian Customs also reiterated its open-door policy for pre-export origin verification to help businesses avoid delays and additional costs at the border.
The webinar highlighted Nigeria’s potential as a regional energy and transition-fuel hub, building on frameworks such as the West African Power Pool to support cross-border electricity trade.
Key recommendations included structuring projects for origin compliance from inception, forming regional joint ventures, aligning with continental standards and leveraging AfCFTA service commitments to export Nigerian energy expertise.
The session ended with confirmation that the webinar was a technical precursor to the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, which will convene policymakers, industry leaders and trade experts to develop strategies for maximising Africa’s energy potential under the AfCFTA framework.
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