Energy
Middle East Crisis Might See Global Crude Oil Buyers Resort to Nigeria, Africa
Nigeria and other oil-producing African countries are set to become major beneficiaries of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
This is the view of global energy analysts, who maintain that leading energy giants in Africa, including Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania, are increasingly seen as lower-risk alternatives to Middle Eastern crude suppliers.
The ongoing Middle East conflict has pushed European and Asian buyers to focus on African volumes, given lower insurance premiums and more predictable delivery times compared to those passing through high-risk routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Nigeria’s energy sector evolution through 2030 involves multiple scenario pathways depending on policy implementation, investment flows, and global market conditions. Strategic planning requires flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances whilst maintaining progress toward energy security objectives.
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Successful energy sector transformation requires coordinated policy implementation across multiple areas, including streamlining permitting processes for energy infrastructure projects, clear pricing mechanisms that balance domestic affordability with investment returns, and environmental standards that ensure sustainable development practices.
Others include tax incentives for domestic refining capacity development, foreign investment frameworks that encourage technology transfer, and regional cooperation agreements that facilitate cross-border energy trade.
The conflict has upended global energy markets, cutting off supplies of approximately 8 million barrels of crude per day and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Brent crude has surged more than 50 per cent to around $110/bbl since the conflict erupted in late February, while the U.S. stock market has lost nearly $4 trillion.
Previously, Oilprice reported that Russia has emerged as the biggest winner of the war, with the conflict providing a strategic “economic lifeline” to Moscow by elevating oil prices, distracting Western allies from the war in Ukraine, and strengthening its diplomatic standing among nations in the Global South.
The Trump administration has even eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, albeit temporarily, drawing bipartisan backlash.
However, Africa’s energy giants could ultimately emerge as the long-term winners of this conflict. The ongoing disruption has handed African energy producers a distinctive structural advantage, thanks to their largely insulated geography from the conflict.
Africa’s burgeoning LNG sector has, by far, the most bullish outlook. The continent’s total LNG export capacity is projected to rise from approximately 80 million tons per year (mtpa) in 2025 to over 175 mtpa by 2040, positioning Africa as a critical global LNG supplier.
Sub-Saharan African LNG exports are projected to increase by 175 per cent by 2034, rising from 30.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024 to 44.5 bcm. This surge will be driven by major project developments, including Mozambique, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Cameroon.
However, the most recent data from the upstream regulatory agency is not palatable for the current scenario.
According to the data, Nigeria, though it has recorded a turning point in its natural gas reserves, has now reached 215.19 trillion cubic feet as of January 2026. However, the country’s oil reserves recorded a slight dip, according to new data released by regulators.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) announced the updated figures in Abuja, highlighting a gradual shift in the country’s energy outlook driven by ongoing gas discoveries and sustained crude production.
This is even as Nigeria recently established the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF), from which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) realised over N450 billion in 2025 alone.
Nigeria’s oil reserves have declined in at least the last three years.
The Commission disclosed that the country’s crude reserves slumped by 0.74 per cent as of January 2026 to 37.01 billion barrels. It is reported that in 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil reserves stood at 37.28 billion barrels, falling from 37.50 billion barrels in 2024, the NUPRC announced at the time.
At its core, Nigeria’s Frontier Exploration Fund was created under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021 to finance exploration in the country’s frontier basins, where hydrocarbons are suspected but not yet proven or commercially developed.
In plain terms, it was designed to search for new oil and gas deposits in underexplored regions, expand Nigeria’s reserve base beyond the traditional Niger Delta, and de-risk exploration in difficult or unproven terrains where private investors are usually reluctant to go.
These frontier basins include places like the Chad Basin, Sokoto Basin, Anambra Basin, Benue Trough, Dahomey Basin, and others.
Before President Bola Tinubu stopped the administration of the NUPRC and the NNPC early this year, instructing direct payment to the Federation Account, the law mandated that about 30 per cent of NNPC’s profit from oil and gas production-sharing contracts was set aside for this purpose.
Under the latest assessment, total oil and condensate reserves declined marginally to 37.01 billion barrels. The adjustment reflects production activities from the previous year and technical reviews of existing fields.
Explaining the development, the Chief Executive of the commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said, “The Reserves Life Index is 59 years and 85 years for oil and gas, respectively. The reason for the slight change in 1.1.2026 oil and condensate reserves by 0.74 per cent is attributable to production in 2025 and reserves update due to field performance and technical evaluation based on subsurface studies.”
Energy
Nigeria’s Crude Output Grows to 12m Barrels on Utapate, Cawthorne
New crude grade variants, Utapate and Cawthorne, have boosted Nigeria’s crude oil production by 12.16 million barrels.
The crude grades, introduced in 2024 and early 2026, represent the latest additions to the country’s basket of crude oil grades aimed at expanding export streams and strengthening oil revenues.
Data contained in the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s (NUPRC) monthly crude and condensate production, indicated that the Utapate crude grade produced a total of 8.75 million barrels between January and May 2026, while the newly introduced Cawthorne blend contributed 3.41 million barrels during the same period, bringing the combined output from both crude grades to approximately 12.16 million barrels.
The data also showed that Utapate has yet to achieve its projected output target announced by the government, even as production remained more than 20,000 barrels per day below the 80,000 bpd target set by operators.
The figures showed that Utapate recorded an average daily production of 55,190 barrels in January. Based on the 31-day month, this translated to a total monthly output of 1.71 million barrels.
Output increased to 57,970 barrels per day in February, yielding about 1.62 million barrels, before rising marginally to 58,020 barrels daily in March, equivalent to roughly 1.80 million barrels.
In April, the field attained its highest daily production level of 59,290 barrels, producing an estimated 1.78 million barrels during the month. Production moderated slightly to 59,170 barrels per day in May but still generated approximately 1.83 million barrels due to the longer calendar month.
However, despite the upward trend, the data indicated that Utapate remained significantly below the 80,000 barrels-per-day target. The field fell short by 24,810 barrels daily in January, 22,030 barrels in February, and 21,980 barrels in March.
The production gap narrowed to 20,710 barrels per day in April before widening marginally to 20,830 barrels in May.
The development suggests that although operators have made progress in scaling up production, the ambitious target announced earlier by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has yet to be realised.
The Utapate field, which commenced production in May 2024, had been projected to achieve 80,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025.
The Utapate crude blend was introduced into the international market by the NNPC Ltd and its partner, Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production Company Limited, following the lifting of the maiden cargo of 950,000 barrels destined for Spain.
Produced from Oil Mining Lease 13 in Akwa Ibom State, the crude grade possesses characteristics that have attracted international interest. It has a sulphur content of 0.0655 percent and a relatively low carbon footprint resulting from flare gas elimination.
Meanwhile, another emerging crude stream, Cawthorne, contributed 3.41 million barrels to Nigeria’s production between January and May, according to the NUPRC data.
The figures showed that Cawthorne’s average daily production rose sharply from 12,340 barrels in January to 16,450 barrels in February and 23,970 barrels in March. The field sustained the momentum in April, reaching 30,970 barrels per day before easing slightly to 28,940 barrels daily in May.
The monthly production volumes translated to 382,540 barrels in January, 460,600 barrels in February, 743,070 barrels in March, 929,100 barrels in April and 897,140 barrels in May.
The NNPC Ltd had recently announced the commencement of exports from the Cawthorne blend, describing the development as part of efforts to increase Nigeria’s crude oil production and strengthen the country’s position in the global energy market.
In a statement, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Ltd, Andy Odeh, said the first cargo of the new grade was lifted aboard the MT Eburones vessel for shipment to the Netherlands.
“The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has commenced export of its new crude grade, Cawthorne, marking a significant milestone in the company’s drive to increase Nigeria’s crude oil production and expand its portfolio of globally competitive export streams,” Odeh said.
He added, “Cawthorne blend crude, the latest addition to Nigeria’s basket of crude grades, has an API gravity of 36.4, placing it firmly within the light, sweet category, comparable to Bonny Light, and highly valued in the global market for its superior petrol and diesel yields.”
According to him, the maiden cargo, estimated at 950,000 barrels, was exported through the Cawthorne Floating Storage and Offloading vessel located offshore Bonny, Rivers State.
“The cargo was exported via the Cawthorne Floating Storage and Offloading vessel, which is strategically located offshore Bonny. The facility enhances crude evacuation from OML 18 and strengthens Nigeria’s export reliability, operational efficiency and overall energy security,” Odeh stated.
The emergence of both Utapate and Cawthorne underscores Nigeria’s determination to diversify its crude export portfolio and maximise oil earnings. However, the latest NUPRC figures also highlight the operational challenges facing producers as they strive to convert ambitious output targets into actual barrels.
Combined, Utapate and Cawthorne contributed an estimated 12.16 million barrels of crude oil between January and May, providing additional support to Nigeria’s broader efforts to sustain production growth and improve foreign exchange earnings from the oil sector.
On Thursday, the NUPRC reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose above its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries quota in May 2026, with the country recording its highest crude output in 15 months amid improved operational stability and the absence of major disruptions across key oil facilities.
Data released showed that Nigeria produced an average of 1,530,354 barrels of crude oil per day in May, representing 102 per cent of the country’s 1.5 million barrels-per-day quota approved by OPEC.
When condensate production of 170,446 barrels per day was added, Nigeria’s total oil output climbed to 1,700,800 barrels per day, further strengthening the country’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer and boosting revenue.
Energy
OPEC Oil Output Lowest Since at Least 2000 as US Blockade Squeezes Iran: Report
OPEC oil output in May hit its lowest in more than two decades, a Reuters survey found, as a U.S. naval blockade cut Iran’s exports and Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz slashed exports by other Gulf producers.
Output by the 11-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 1.06 million barrels per day month-on-month to 16.13 million bpd, the survey found.
That was the lowest monthly figure since at least 2000, according to Reuters surveys, and well below the levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 when demand collapsed.
The figures exclude the United Arab Emirates which quit OPEC as of May 1.
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Saudi Arabia had a further decline, although Iraq was able to increase supply due to increased domestic use, sources in the survey said.
Venezuela and Nigeria also pumped more.
Eight members of the OPEC+ producer group, which includes OPEC plus allies including Russia, had agreed to raise production in May, but the Iran war and U.S. blockade made that impossible.
The Reuters survey is based on flow data from financial group LSEG, information from other companies that track flows, such as Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
Credit – Times of India
Energy
Shell Points Pathways to Advance Gas Utilisation at Abuja Business Forum
Shell Nigeria Gas (SNG) shared its experiences in pioneering gas distribution nearly 30 years ago, and identified the expansion of pipeline natural gas infrastructure and the market‑making role of gas distributors as critical in moving gas from a policy aspiration to a practical energy solution for Nigerian industries.
“When SNG started in Agbara–Ota over 20 years ago, demand was nowhere near what it is today,” recalled Managing Director Ralph Gbobo at a panel session on “Building a Bankable Gas Distribution Ecosystem: Infrastructure, Capital and Market Demand” at the 2nd business forum of the Association of Local Distributors of Gas (ALDG) in Abuja late last week.
Represented by Head, Gas Distribution, Chukwuka Amos-Ejesi, Raph said: “The economics was not perfect, but there was a leap of faith anchored on Nigeria’s industrialisation trajectory. That decision has proven right.”
He said SNG’s persistence proved that when demand ambition, supply certainty, enabling infrastructure, and commercial clarity come together, even if not perfectly at the start, it creates industrial clusters that can grow and attract long-term capital. “Sustainability and bankability emerge over time, as utilization deepens and confidence builds,” he pointed out.
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The theme of the forum was “From Gas Abundance to Gas Access: Reassessing Nigeria’s Gas Distribution Imperatives,” with industry leaders and other stakeholders discussing the use of gas to drive industrialisation. The panel session agreed on the need for “clear, supportive and credible policy frameworks, especially measures designed to improve the use of gas.
Ralph noted: “The introduction of gas-focused policies, notably the Petroleum Industry Act, marked a turning point. By reinforcing the role of gas in Nigeria’s energy and industrial strategy and embedding instruments such as the Network Code- a critical framework that governs the operations of the Domestic Gas market and ensures transparency and stability, and the Domestic Gas Supply Obligation which compels gas producers to allocate gas to the domestic market, the PIA significantly reduced policy ambiguity around gas development.”
He added: “The introduction of clearer pricing frameworks for gas supply and transportation and a more transparent and competitive licensing regime, has also strengthened market confidence. Together, these measures have improved producer confidence, particularly for domestic gas projects, and signaled the government’s strong commitment to gas as a driver of industrial development.”
Incorporated in 1998 as a fully Shell-owned gas distribution company, SNG currently serves over 150 clients in Abia, Bayelsa, Ogun and Rivers states, partnering with governments and other stakeholders to take the cleaner and more affordable energy to the doorsteps of industries. In the first half of this year alone, the company has connected two additional companies in Ogun State to its gas distribution network.
Photo Caption – L–R: Chairman, Association of Local Distributors of Gas (ALDG), and Managing Director, Axxela Gas Distribution, Kehinde Alabi; and Head of Gas Distribution, Shell Nigeria Gas, Chukwuka Amos-Ejesi, receiving a commendation plaque on behalf of SNG Managing Director, Ralph Gbobo, in recognition of his professional and diligent service on the Governing Board of the Association, at the Association of Local Distributors of Gas (ALDG) Business Forum in Abuja





