Energy
Middle East Crisis Might See Global Crude Oil Buyers Resort to Nigeria, Africa
Nigeria and other oil-producing African countries are set to become major beneficiaries of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
This is the view of global energy analysts, who maintain that leading energy giants in Africa, including Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania, are increasingly seen as lower-risk alternatives to Middle Eastern crude suppliers.
The ongoing Middle East conflict has pushed European and Asian buyers to focus on African volumes, given lower insurance premiums and more predictable delivery times compared to those passing through high-risk routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Nigeria’s energy sector evolution through 2030 involves multiple scenario pathways depending on policy implementation, investment flows, and global market conditions. Strategic planning requires flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances whilst maintaining progress toward energy security objectives.
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Successful energy sector transformation requires coordinated policy implementation across multiple areas, including streamlining permitting processes for energy infrastructure projects, clear pricing mechanisms that balance domestic affordability with investment returns, and environmental standards that ensure sustainable development practices.
Others include tax incentives for domestic refining capacity development, foreign investment frameworks that encourage technology transfer, and regional cooperation agreements that facilitate cross-border energy trade.
The conflict has upended global energy markets, cutting off supplies of approximately 8 million barrels of crude per day and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Brent crude has surged more than 50 per cent to around $110/bbl since the conflict erupted in late February, while the U.S. stock market has lost nearly $4 trillion.
Previously, Oilprice reported that Russia has emerged as the biggest winner of the war, with the conflict providing a strategic “economic lifeline” to Moscow by elevating oil prices, distracting Western allies from the war in Ukraine, and strengthening its diplomatic standing among nations in the Global South.
The Trump administration has even eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, albeit temporarily, drawing bipartisan backlash.
However, Africa’s energy giants could ultimately emerge as the long-term winners of this conflict. The ongoing disruption has handed African energy producers a distinctive structural advantage, thanks to their largely insulated geography from the conflict.
Africa’s burgeoning LNG sector has, by far, the most bullish outlook. The continent’s total LNG export capacity is projected to rise from approximately 80 million tons per year (mtpa) in 2025 to over 175 mtpa by 2040, positioning Africa as a critical global LNG supplier.
Sub-Saharan African LNG exports are projected to increase by 175 per cent by 2034, rising from 30.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024 to 44.5 bcm. This surge will be driven by major project developments, including Mozambique, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Cameroon.
However, the most recent data from the upstream regulatory agency is not palatable for the current scenario.
According to the data, Nigeria, though it has recorded a turning point in its natural gas reserves, has now reached 215.19 trillion cubic feet as of January 2026. However, the country’s oil reserves recorded a slight dip, according to new data released by regulators.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) announced the updated figures in Abuja, highlighting a gradual shift in the country’s energy outlook driven by ongoing gas discoveries and sustained crude production.
This is even as Nigeria recently established the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF), from which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) realised over N450 billion in 2025 alone.
Nigeria’s oil reserves have declined in at least the last three years.
The Commission disclosed that the country’s crude reserves slumped by 0.74 per cent as of January 2026 to 37.01 billion barrels. It is reported that in 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil reserves stood at 37.28 billion barrels, falling from 37.50 billion barrels in 2024, the NUPRC announced at the time.
At its core, Nigeria’s Frontier Exploration Fund was created under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021 to finance exploration in the country’s frontier basins, where hydrocarbons are suspected but not yet proven or commercially developed.
In plain terms, it was designed to search for new oil and gas deposits in underexplored regions, expand Nigeria’s reserve base beyond the traditional Niger Delta, and de-risk exploration in difficult or unproven terrains where private investors are usually reluctant to go.
These frontier basins include places like the Chad Basin, Sokoto Basin, Anambra Basin, Benue Trough, Dahomey Basin, and others.
Before President Bola Tinubu stopped the administration of the NUPRC and the NNPC early this year, instructing direct payment to the Federation Account, the law mandated that about 30 per cent of NNPC’s profit from oil and gas production-sharing contracts was set aside for this purpose.
Under the latest assessment, total oil and condensate reserves declined marginally to 37.01 billion barrels. The adjustment reflects production activities from the previous year and technical reviews of existing fields.
Explaining the development, the Chief Executive of the commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said, “The Reserves Life Index is 59 years and 85 years for oil and gas, respectively. The reason for the slight change in 1.1.2026 oil and condensate reserves by 0.74 per cent is attributable to production in 2025 and reserves update due to field performance and technical evaluation based on subsurface studies.”
Energy
OPEC+ Retains Output at 30.9mbpd
In a confirmation of expectations that more policy adjustments will not occur until 2027, OPEC+ oil-producing countries have voted to keep December production targets steady.
The OPEC+ alliance, yesterday, agreed in principle to keep its combined December oil output targets unchanged at 30.9 million barrels per day (bpd), with Saudi Arabia’s individual target held at 10.5 million bpd.
The resolution was passed at a virtual meeting attended by seven core OPEC+ members- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
This is as the group continues to struggle with export disruptions from the Middle East crisis, while Gulf members have been boosting exports that have been disrupted for months by the conflict, most are still pumping well below their targets.
OPEC+ comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia. Only the seven members — plus the United Arab Emirates (UAE) until it quit OPEC in May — have been involved in monthly output decisions in recent years.
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All members of the 21-country group are due to meet on November 29, when it will decide 2027 quotas.
“Today’s decision was the easy one,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad. “The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”
Oil prices jumped more than two per cent on Friday, with Brent crude settling at almost $118 a barrel, the highest since April, as traders braced for a potential escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections.
“OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027,” Leon added. “The group has to plan around huge uncertainty over the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of the surplus that could emerge once disrupted barrels return.”
The seven members have been boosting output targets for much of 2026 and in September completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. At earlier meetings, they kept the targets steady for October and November.
OPEC+ still has one more layer of production cuts of about two million bpd covering most members through the end of 2026.
The group needs to complete a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas and shape plans to unwind those cuts, sources have said.
The Iran war has disrupted projects to expand capacity across the Middle East, throwing estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, Reuters reported in October. As a result, the review is now expected to be completed by mid-November.
Energy
U.S. to Tweak LNG Safety Rules for Foreign Markets
With a view to accelerating infrastructure development and reducing operating costs, the U.S. Department of Transportation is contemplating a new set of safety regulations for liquefied natural gas facilities.
This is coming as American exporters prepare for another major expansion in global natural gas markets.
It was gathered that the proposal, issued by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), would modernize federal LNG safety requirements by incorporating standards developed by the National Fire Protection Association.
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The changes are to address facility location, engineering, construction, operations, and maintenance, with greater flexibility to adopt newer technologies.
Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy estimates that the updated framework could save LNG operators approximately $100 million annually while maintaining safety protections. The projected savings are an agency estimate, and the proposal has not yet become a final regulation.
The initiative comes as the United States strengthens its position as the world’s largest LNG exporter. American export capacity is expected to increase by approximately 100 million metric tons annually by the end of the decade, supported by projects already under development and additional planned investments.
Global LNG demand has also become more sensitive to geopolitical disruptions. Interruptions to Middle Eastern gas shipments associated with the conflict involving Iran have encouraged international buyers to evaluate alternative suppliers and diversify long-term procurement arrangements.
U.S. LNG developers have responded with additional investment commitments. Projects representing more than 50 million metric tons of annual capacity have reached final investment decisions since the beginning of 2025.
Major exporters, including Cheniere Energy and Venture Global, are pursuing additional development opportunities as federal policy places greater emphasis on expanding domestic energy infrastructure.
However, regulatory modernization does not eliminate the financial or operational challenges associated with LNG construction.
Developers must still secure the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approvals, complete environmental reviews, arrange financing, and address potential legal challenges. Pipeline connections, specialized equipment availability, construction costs, and long-term customer contracts also influence project schedules.
Delfin LNG, which is developing a floating export facility, illustrates the importance of infrastructure safety approvals. Its associated pipeline has not received publicly confirmed PHMSA clearance to resume operations following an explosion earlier this year.
Separately, FERC has proposed a streamlined authorization framework for certain modifications and expansions at existing LNG facilities, including activities that could qualify for automatic approval or shortened review periods.
For energy investors, the combined regulatory initiatives could improve development visibility and reduce some costs, although their financial impact will depend on final requirements and individual project circumstances.
Additional LNG export capacity could support demand for U.S. natural gas production, particularly from major producing regions connected to Gulf Coast terminals.
Midstream operators, engineering companies, compression equipment manufacturers, and construction contractors could also benefit from continued infrastructure investment.
At the same time, greater export demand may increase domestic natural gas price sensitivity to international markets, creating different implications for producers, utilities, and industrial consumers.
Investors will be monitoring the final PHMSA regulations, FERC permitting developments, LNG project financing decisions, and the pace at which proposed export capacity enters commercial service.
Energy
NALPGAM Preaches Innovation, Safety to LPG Operators
The Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGAM) has urged operators in Nigeria’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) industry to strengthen safety standards, improve regulatory compliance and adopt digital technologies to reduce operational losses and drive business growth.
The association said improved operational practices would help protect investments, enhance efficiency, build consumer confidence and support the sustainable expansion of C.
The call followed its 2026 webinar, themed “Downstream LPG Operational Excellence and Compliance,” which brought together industry operators, regulators and other stakeholders to discuss safety risks, market volatility, operational inefficiencies and regulatory requirements in the downstream LPG sector.
Speaking at the event, NALPGAM National President, Edu Inyang, said the industry’s long-term growth would depend on more than increased consumption and supply volumes, stressing the need to embed safety and operational efficiency in everyday business practices.
“The future of Nigeria’s LPG industry cannot be achieved by increasing volumes alone. We must grow safely, responsibly, efficiently and sustainably. Safety is not an occasional campaign; it must become a continuous industry culture,” he said.
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A major outcome of the webinar was a proposal for a NALPGAM Standard of Operational Excellence, anchored on four principles: safe and well-maintained facilities, competent and adequately trained operators, regulatory-compliant processes, and consumer protection.
Participants urged operators to integrate safety into routine operations, strengthen preventive maintenance and comply with licensing and incident-reporting requirements.
They also called for an end to unsafe practices, including unauthorised propane blending and illegal decanting, warning that such activities could expose businesses and consumers to avoidable risks.
Inyang said compliance should be viewed as a means of strengthening business performance rather than merely fulfilling regulatory obligations.
“Compliance is not merely a regulatory burden; it is a business advantage. Well-managed LPG operations reduce accidents, improve efficiency, protect investments and strengthen public confidence in our industry,” he said.
The webinar also highlighted the role of digital technologies in improving operational efficiency and accountability across the LPG value chain.
Participants identified smart filling systems, automated tank gauges, load cells, flow meters and vehicle-tracking systems as practical tools for monitoring product movements, reducing losses and improving inventory management.
Wider adoption of these technologies, they said, could help operators strengthen operational controls, minimise discrepancies and improve the reliability of LPG distribution.
The discussions come as Nigeria seeks to expand LPG consumption to approximately five million tonnes annually by 2030, a target that will require increased investment, stronger distribution networks and wider consumer access.
Stakeholders called for greater industry participation in the Decade of Gas LPG penetration programme, alongside stronger collaboration to expand access, improve cylinder traceability and promote certified local manufacturing.
The NALPGAM also urged regulators and programme coordinators to involve its members more actively in implementing LPG penetration and cylinder recirculation initiatives.
According to the association, its members’ nationwide presence and proximity to consumers could help improve the reach and effectiveness of programmes designed to increase LPG adoption.
Reiterating the association’s position, Inyang said the industry must establish clear operational standards that protect consumers while supporting efficient and sustainable business practices.
“Our aspiration is clear: every LPG facility must be safe and properly maintained, every operator competent and adequately trained, every process compliant, and every customer protected. This is the standard of operational excellence we must collectively pursue,” he said.
The NALPGAM reaffirmed its commitment to working with government agencies, regulators and industry stakeholders to develop a safer, more efficient and competitive LPG market.
The association maintained that embedding safety, strengthening compliance and deploying appropriate technologies would be critical to improving operational performance and supporting the long-term growth of Nigeria’s LPG industry.





