Energy
Middle East Crisis Might See Global Crude Oil Buyers Resort to Nigeria, Africa
Nigeria and other oil-producing African countries are set to become major beneficiaries of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
This is the view of global energy analysts, who maintain that leading energy giants in Africa, including Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania, are increasingly seen as lower-risk alternatives to Middle Eastern crude suppliers.
The ongoing Middle East conflict has pushed European and Asian buyers to focus on African volumes, given lower insurance premiums and more predictable delivery times compared to those passing through high-risk routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Nigeria’s energy sector evolution through 2030 involves multiple scenario pathways depending on policy implementation, investment flows, and global market conditions. Strategic planning requires flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances whilst maintaining progress toward energy security objectives.
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Successful energy sector transformation requires coordinated policy implementation across multiple areas, including streamlining permitting processes for energy infrastructure projects, clear pricing mechanisms that balance domestic affordability with investment returns, and environmental standards that ensure sustainable development practices.
Others include tax incentives for domestic refining capacity development, foreign investment frameworks that encourage technology transfer, and regional cooperation agreements that facilitate cross-border energy trade.
The conflict has upended global energy markets, cutting off supplies of approximately 8 million barrels of crude per day and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Brent crude has surged more than 50 per cent to around $110/bbl since the conflict erupted in late February, while the U.S. stock market has lost nearly $4 trillion.
Previously, Oilprice reported that Russia has emerged as the biggest winner of the war, with the conflict providing a strategic “economic lifeline” to Moscow by elevating oil prices, distracting Western allies from the war in Ukraine, and strengthening its diplomatic standing among nations in the Global South.
The Trump administration has even eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, albeit temporarily, drawing bipartisan backlash.
However, Africa’s energy giants could ultimately emerge as the long-term winners of this conflict. The ongoing disruption has handed African energy producers a distinctive structural advantage, thanks to their largely insulated geography from the conflict.
Africa’s burgeoning LNG sector has, by far, the most bullish outlook. The continent’s total LNG export capacity is projected to rise from approximately 80 million tons per year (mtpa) in 2025 to over 175 mtpa by 2040, positioning Africa as a critical global LNG supplier.
Sub-Saharan African LNG exports are projected to increase by 175 per cent by 2034, rising from 30.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024 to 44.5 bcm. This surge will be driven by major project developments, including Mozambique, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Cameroon.
However, the most recent data from the upstream regulatory agency is not palatable for the current scenario.
According to the data, Nigeria, though it has recorded a turning point in its natural gas reserves, has now reached 215.19 trillion cubic feet as of January 2026. However, the country’s oil reserves recorded a slight dip, according to new data released by regulators.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) announced the updated figures in Abuja, highlighting a gradual shift in the country’s energy outlook driven by ongoing gas discoveries and sustained crude production.
This is even as Nigeria recently established the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF), from which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) realised over N450 billion in 2025 alone.
Nigeria’s oil reserves have declined in at least the last three years.
The Commission disclosed that the country’s crude reserves slumped by 0.74 per cent as of January 2026 to 37.01 billion barrels. It is reported that in 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil reserves stood at 37.28 billion barrels, falling from 37.50 billion barrels in 2024, the NUPRC announced at the time.
At its core, Nigeria’s Frontier Exploration Fund was created under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021 to finance exploration in the country’s frontier basins, where hydrocarbons are suspected but not yet proven or commercially developed.
In plain terms, it was designed to search for new oil and gas deposits in underexplored regions, expand Nigeria’s reserve base beyond the traditional Niger Delta, and de-risk exploration in difficult or unproven terrains where private investors are usually reluctant to go.
These frontier basins include places like the Chad Basin, Sokoto Basin, Anambra Basin, Benue Trough, Dahomey Basin, and others.
Before President Bola Tinubu stopped the administration of the NUPRC and the NNPC early this year, instructing direct payment to the Federation Account, the law mandated that about 30 per cent of NNPC’s profit from oil and gas production-sharing contracts was set aside for this purpose.
Under the latest assessment, total oil and condensate reserves declined marginally to 37.01 billion barrels. The adjustment reflects production activities from the previous year and technical reviews of existing fields.
Explaining the development, the Chief Executive of the commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said, “The Reserves Life Index is 59 years and 85 years for oil and gas, respectively. The reason for the slight change in 1.1.2026 oil and condensate reserves by 0.74 per cent is attributable to production in 2025 and reserves update due to field performance and technical evaluation based on subsurface studies.”
Oil output from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) rose to record levels in September, underscoring its resilience even amidst the Middle East crises and liberation from OPEC+ limits.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued the data in its monthly report, adding that Abu Dhabi raised total oil production, including condensates, by 400,000 bpd to 5.3 MMbpd.
According to the IEA, the UAE bolstered crude output to more than 4.4 MMbpd, nearing its maximum capacity, which surpasses the previous highs for total oil in August, and crude oil in June.
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The UAE has been one of the most successful among regional producers in restoring flows through the Strait of Hormuz, by drawing on a fleet of tankers to discreetly shuttle cargoes through the chokepoint and then transfer them onto other vessels. In addition, the country’s decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as of May has freed it from the group’s output caps, a source of frustration for years.
Its gains contributed to a wider recovery in flows from Gulf producers, which reached more than 75% of pre-war levels in September, led by Saudi Arabia, according to the Paris-based IEA.
Still, it’s unclear how far the regional rebound has withstood a new wave of Iranian attacks on tankers transiting Hormuz, and escalating hostilities carried out by the Houthi rebel faction in Yemen.
The UAE depleted its observable above-ground inventories at a record pace of more than 270,000 bpd in September, drawing them to an all-time low, according to the IEA.
Africa’s gas potential and strengthening the continent’s energy security would take centre stage at the Africa Interviews Sustainability Forum (AISF 2026) scheduled for Wednesday, October 21, in Lagos.
Biztellers reports that top officials of Oando Plc and Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, Ayotola Jagun and Tony Attah, respectively, will be leading other industry leaders in the discussion.
Jagun, Oando’s Executive Director, Chief Corporate Services and Sustainability Officer, and Attah, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, will participate in a panel discussion alongside Lamé Verre of Lean In Equity & Sustainability (LiNES) and Dapo Filani, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Waltersmith.
The panel will examine Africa’s energy security and the role of natural gas in the continent’s energy transition.
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The forum, launched in 2024, is holding its third edition under the theme, “Energy Security and Africa’s Energy Transition: Defining the Role of Gas.”
This year’s gathering will explore how African countries can strengthen energy security, attract investment in gas development and balance growing energy demand with sustainability objectives.
Verre, a London-based energy and sustainability executive, is Co-founder and Chair of the Advisory Board of LiNES. She will bring her international experience in sustainability, decarbonisation and low-carbon development to the discussion. Her work spans low-carbon initiatives across sectors, including marine, the built environment, forestry, land and agriculture.
Jagun brings extensive experience in corporate governance, regulatory compliance, enterprise risk management and sustainability. Her contribution will provide a corporate sustainability and governance perspective on the relationship between energy development, environmental responsibility and Africa’s transition priorities.
Attah, a former Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigeria LNG Limited, has extensive experience in the oil and gas industry, particularly in natural gas development and major energy operations.
Filani leads Waltersmith, an indigenous Nigerian energy company with interests across the oil and gas value chain. His participation will highlight the role of indigenous energy companies in strengthening domestic energy capacity and supporting economic development.
The panel will consider what is required to unlock greater investment in Africa’s gas sector, how natural gas can support industrial growth while advancing sustainability, and what practical measures could help translate the continent’s energy ambitions into tangible outcomes.
Beyond the panel discussion, AISF 2026 will provide opportunities for engagement among senior energy executives, policymakers, investors and business leaders.
Oil prices on Monday went south, after crude exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels, while the Group of Seven nations pledged to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves.
Brent crude futures fell by $1.20, or 1.17 percent, to $101.05 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude declined by $1.16, or 1.27 percent, to $89.95 per barrel, according to Reuters.
Middle Eastern crude exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, shipping data showed, despite attacks on vessels passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The increase in exports, combined with the G7’s planned release of emergency stocks, helped put downward pressure on crude prices.
The G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from energy export restrictions following pressure from United States President Donald Trump.
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However, the scale of the additional supply remained uncertain.
IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said last week that member countries had already released about two-thirds of the 400-million-barrel volume.
Meanwhile, supply concerns remained elevated as fighting continued across parts of the Middle East.
Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer, Amin Nasser, also warned that crude oil and refined fuel supplies were expected to remain stretched.
He said rebuilding global stockpiles after emergency withdrawals could take two years.
The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 283 million barrels last week, its lowest level since October 1982, according to data from the US Department of Energy.
The supply outlook was further complicated by the continuing conflict involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen.
Yemeni government forces attacked Houthi positions in the Dhubab district overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Monday, according to two military sources.
The development came a day after the internationally recognised government launched a campaign to retake Houthi-held territory.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ postponed a review that would determine its 2027 oil output quotas after the war involving Iran disrupted projects aimed at expanding production capacity across the Middle East.
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