Energy
Middle East Crisis Might See Global Crude Oil Buyers Resort to Nigeria, Africa
Nigeria and other oil-producing African countries are set to become major beneficiaries of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
This is the view of global energy analysts, who maintain that leading energy giants in Africa, including Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Gabon, Mozambique, Namibia, and Tanzania, are increasingly seen as lower-risk alternatives to Middle Eastern crude suppliers.
The ongoing Middle East conflict has pushed European and Asian buyers to focus on African volumes, given lower insurance premiums and more predictable delivery times compared to those passing through high-risk routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Nigeria’s energy sector evolution through 2030 involves multiple scenario pathways depending on policy implementation, investment flows, and global market conditions. Strategic planning requires flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances whilst maintaining progress toward energy security objectives.
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Successful energy sector transformation requires coordinated policy implementation across multiple areas, including streamlining permitting processes for energy infrastructure projects, clear pricing mechanisms that balance domestic affordability with investment returns, and environmental standards that ensure sustainable development practices.
Others include tax incentives for domestic refining capacity development, foreign investment frameworks that encourage technology transfer, and regional cooperation agreements that facilitate cross-border energy trade.
The conflict has upended global energy markets, cutting off supplies of approximately 8 million barrels of crude per day and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Brent crude has surged more than 50 per cent to around $110/bbl since the conflict erupted in late February, while the U.S. stock market has lost nearly $4 trillion.
Previously, Oilprice reported that Russia has emerged as the biggest winner of the war, with the conflict providing a strategic “economic lifeline” to Moscow by elevating oil prices, distracting Western allies from the war in Ukraine, and strengthening its diplomatic standing among nations in the Global South.
The Trump administration has even eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, albeit temporarily, drawing bipartisan backlash.
However, Africa’s energy giants could ultimately emerge as the long-term winners of this conflict. The ongoing disruption has handed African energy producers a distinctive structural advantage, thanks to their largely insulated geography from the conflict.
Africa’s burgeoning LNG sector has, by far, the most bullish outlook. The continent’s total LNG export capacity is projected to rise from approximately 80 million tons per year (mtpa) in 2025 to over 175 mtpa by 2040, positioning Africa as a critical global LNG supplier.
Sub-Saharan African LNG exports are projected to increase by 175 per cent by 2034, rising from 30.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024 to 44.5 bcm. This surge will be driven by major project developments, including Mozambique, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, and Cameroon.
However, the most recent data from the upstream regulatory agency is not palatable for the current scenario.
According to the data, Nigeria, though it has recorded a turning point in its natural gas reserves, has now reached 215.19 trillion cubic feet as of January 2026. However, the country’s oil reserves recorded a slight dip, according to new data released by regulators.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) announced the updated figures in Abuja, highlighting a gradual shift in the country’s energy outlook driven by ongoing gas discoveries and sustained crude production.
This is even as Nigeria recently established the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF), from which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) realised over N450 billion in 2025 alone.
Nigeria’s oil reserves have declined in at least the last three years.
The Commission disclosed that the country’s crude reserves slumped by 0.74 per cent as of January 2026 to 37.01 billion barrels. It is reported that in 2025, Nigeria’s crude oil reserves stood at 37.28 billion barrels, falling from 37.50 billion barrels in 2024, the NUPRC announced at the time.
At its core, Nigeria’s Frontier Exploration Fund was created under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021 to finance exploration in the country’s frontier basins, where hydrocarbons are suspected but not yet proven or commercially developed.
In plain terms, it was designed to search for new oil and gas deposits in underexplored regions, expand Nigeria’s reserve base beyond the traditional Niger Delta, and de-risk exploration in difficult or unproven terrains where private investors are usually reluctant to go.
These frontier basins include places like the Chad Basin, Sokoto Basin, Anambra Basin, Benue Trough, Dahomey Basin, and others.
Before President Bola Tinubu stopped the administration of the NUPRC and the NNPC early this year, instructing direct payment to the Federation Account, the law mandated that about 30 per cent of NNPC’s profit from oil and gas production-sharing contracts was set aside for this purpose.
Under the latest assessment, total oil and condensate reserves declined marginally to 37.01 billion barrels. The adjustment reflects production activities from the previous year and technical reviews of existing fields.
Explaining the development, the Chief Executive of the commission, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said, “The Reserves Life Index is 59 years and 85 years for oil and gas, respectively. The reason for the slight change in 1.1.2026 oil and condensate reserves by 0.74 per cent is attributable to production in 2025 and reserves update due to field performance and technical evaluation based on subsurface studies.”
Energy
N4bn Compensation Dispute Threatens Ikot Abasi Power Project
Nearly 20 years after the Federal Government awarded the contract for the 330kV Ikot Abasi Transmission Line, the Niger Delta Power Holding Company Limited (NDPHC) has turned to the Akwa Ibom State Government to break a N4 billion compensation deadlock threatening the completion of the strategic power project.
The transmission project, awarded in 2006 under the National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP), has remained stalled primarily over unresolved community and wayleave compensation issues.
But, to ensure the completion of the project, NDPHC Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer, Jennifer Adighije, is now seeking the intervention of Akwa Ibom State Governor, Pastor Umo Eno, to clear the outstanding issues and enable the contractor, Anit Energy, to return to site.
Adighije made the appeal during a courtesy visit to the Governor in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State.
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She disclosed that the latest valuation of the outstanding wayleave obligations was slightly below N4 billion.
The NDPHC boss said the prolonged delay was particularly concerning because the contractor had reportedly completed about 90 per cent of the engineering, procurement and construction procurement for the project.
She added that substantial project materials, including conductors and tower members worth millions of dollars, had already been deployed along the project corridor between Adiasim and Ikot Ekpene, but were still lying across communities as the impasse persists.
“We are therefore pleading for your kind intervention as a shareholder and board member of the company,” Adighije told the governor.
According to her, resolving the outstanding community issues would allow the contractor to remobilise to site and bring the long-delayed project to completion.
NDPHC is now targeting May 29, 2027, for commissioning of the transmission line, subject to the successful resolution of the outstanding compensation and community challenges.
Adighije said NDPHC was keen to support the state’s development ambitions through its role as a major interventionist agency in Nigeria’s electricity sector.
“We want to be part of your ARISE Agenda,” she said, referring to the governor’s development programme.
She also welcomed the establishment of the Akwa Ibom State Electricity Regulatory Commission, saying NDPHC had commenced discussions with the commission on the development of appropriate electricity-market frameworks for the state.
According to her, officials of the commission had visited NDPHC and requested information on the company’s projects in Akwa Ibom, while a joint working group was being established to examine how the assets could be better utilised and electricity access extended to underserved communities.
Also speaking, NDPHC Executive Director, Strategy and Commercial, Mr. Patrick Obahiagbon, commended the Governor’s administration for its development initiatives across the state.
Responding, Governor Eno welcomed the NDPHC initiative and pledged to take the Ikot Abasi project before the State Executive Council for consideration. The governor said the state government would examine the outstanding issues and determine how it could intervene to facilitate the completion of the project.
Energy
Nigeria-Libya Gas Pipeline as FG Eyes New LNG Markets
There are indications that the Nigeria-Libya Gas Pipeline would go from the drawing board to reality, as it has emerged as a major option to help Nigeria break into new markets for her gas reserves.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, disclosed this at Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, Thailand, during a high-level engagement with global energy companies, investors and governments on expanding Nigeria’s gas production, infrastructure, domestic utilisation and export markets.
The renewed push for the Nigeria-Libya pipeline topped the agenda for the meeting between Ekpo and Libya’s Minister of Oil and Gas, Dr Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek.
Under the proposed framework, Nigeria and Libya are expected to explore a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and establish a joint technical team to assess the feasibility, financing, infrastructure requirements, security considerations and commercial viability of the project.
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The NNPC Limited is expected to spearhead Nigeria’s participation in the bilateral initiative. If developed, the pipeline would provide another potential route for transporting Nigerian gas through North Africa to European markets, giving Nigeria an additional platform to monetise its gas resources beyond existing LNG channels.
According to Ekpo, the Federal Government was determined to create an investment environment capable of attracting the capital, technology and strategic partnerships required to convert the country’s gas reserves into economic growth, industrial development and jobs.
“Nigeria is open for business. We have put in place the right fiscal policies and operating environment, and the security of investors and their investments is guaranteed,” he said.
He revealed that the NNPC Limited would play a central role in translating Nigeria’s bilateral energy engagements into commercially viable projects, strategic investments and sustainable development.
The minister’s engagements also revealed plans by major industry players to significantly ramp up domestic gas production and infrastructure.
Energy
Gas Industry Must Commercialise Methane – NLNG
Gas producers must stop treating methane reduction as an environmental cost, because methane released into the atmosphere represents lost gas, lost revenue and lost energy that could otherwise be recovered and sold.
The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) Adeleye Falade, made the declaration during a panel titled “Capturing the Lost Opportunity: Driving Global Alignment on Methane Abatement Across Natural Gas Supply Chains,” at the Gastech 2026 Exhibition and Conference in Bangkok, Thailand.
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Taking from the company’s experience, he highlighted that investments in methane abatement could pay for themselves while improving plant efficiency and asset reliability.
The NLNG CEO said the commercial value of recovering lost gas should become a central part of the global industry’s approach to methane management.
“Every tonne emitted is lost product, lost revenue and lost energy; gas we could have sold. Every molecule of methane avoided is both an emissions reduction and a recovered energy resource.”
According to him, the NLNG’s new boil-off gas compressor and start-up gas recovery project demonstrate the business case for methane reduction, with each project expected to deliver methane reductions of about 10–15 percent while also recording positive projected net present values. “The most compelling business case is the simplest one: the projects that cut our methane also pay for themselves.
“The same discipline that reduces methane also improves asset reliability and plant efficiency. The returns show up in more places than the emissions ledger,” Falade said.
He added that the starting point for methane abatement was credible measurement of gas losses, which enables companies to identify where methane is being lost, channel investment towards the right interventions and independently verify the results.
According to Falade, the NLNG had demonstrated that producers in developing economies could meet globally recognised standards for emissions measurement and reporting, despite infrastructure and other constraints.
He disclosed that the NLNG had achieved Gold Standard recognition under the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0 and became the first company in Africa to attain Level 5 methane emissions reporting.
Its measurement, reporting and verification system is independently assured by DNV in line with ISO 14064.
The NLNG’s methane-management programme includes site-wide optical gas imaging, a structured Leak Detection and Repair programme, as well as phased deployment of continuous monitoring and real-time emissions dashboards across its plant and vessels.
Falade said methane reduction was also being incorporated into the design of Train 7, which is expected to raise the NLNG’s LNG production capacity from 22 million tonnes per annum to 30 million tonnes.
The commercial case for emissions abatement was not new to Nigeria, he added, pointing to the NLNG’s longstanding role in converting gas that would otherwise have been flared into a marketable product.
According to him, the company’s activities have contributed to reducing Nigeria’s gas-flaring rate from above 65 percent to below 20 percent.
Beyond its own operations, Falade revealed that the NLNG was extending methane-management requirements across its supply chain through its Scope 3 Advocacy Plan.
The company engages feed-gas suppliers and contractors to measure, disclose and reduce emissions, while verified upstream emissions data and emissions-related criteria are incorporated into supplier selection and evaluation.
Falade also called for greater consistency in methane measurement and reporting requirements across jurisdictions, arguing that divergent standards make enforcement uneven and complicate meaningful comparisons between producers.
“The industry does not need weaker standards; it needs stronger, shared ones backed by real measurement,” he said.
On the tension between emissions reduction, energy access and affordability, Falade said developing economies should not be forced to choose between economic development and climate action.
“Developing economies cannot be asked to choose between economic development and emissions reduction. Both must progress together,” he said.
Other panellists were Zubin Bamji of the World Bank, Niels Dijksman of Brunei LNG and Hiroyuki Mori of JOGMEC.
The session was moderated by energy economist Dr Carole Nakhle of Crystol Energy.





