Energy
Nigeria Faces Mixed LNG Demand Outlook As NLNG Sustains Growth
Though the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) is focused on its capacity expansion plans, tilting towards bringing on-stream its Train-7, mixed projections on the global demand side are raising serious business development concerns.
Recent reports indicate that the NLNG’s Train 7 project is a significant investment, with a total cost of $10 billion, which is highly significant because Russia’s gas cuts have left the European Union (EU) looking to Nigeria as an alternative to augment its gas needs.
The Deputy Director-General of the European Commission’s Department of Energy, Matthew Baldwin, said Friday, “Europe is in a tight spot in relation to gas following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and instability in our gas market, the threat perhaps to cut off supply altogether.”
Baldwin, who visited Abuja, said the EU is looking to increase Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports from Nigeria above current levels.
Nigeria currently supplies 14 per cent of the EU’s gas imports, while 60 per cent of Nigeria’s LNG shipments go to Europe, he said. “We want to expand what is currently at 14 per cent share of total LNG imports from Nigeria. We want that to go up,” he said.
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Baldwin said that the gas relationship between Nigeria and the EU has extraordinary potential, with the latter determined to deliver on it.
The NLNG is also actively participating in the 2026 International LNG Conference in Qatar, where the company is expected to highlight its commitment plans and growth strategies.
While it has been projected that Nigeria’s revenue from the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will get a major boost in 2026 as global output is set to jump, another interesting conversation is puncturing this hope.
It was projected that a boost in global supply will ease constraints seen since the 2022 Ukraine war, which dampened prices, and could spur demand, including from top importers China and India, analysts say.
This year marks the start of a large wave of supply that analysts expect to last until 2029, depressing prices and potentially driving more demand from emerging economies.
“2026 is expected to be a transitional year for the LNG market,” said Kpler in a report quoted by Reuters. “The market is expected to move away from tightness toward ample availability, with sufficient supply even as winter demand and storage needs emerge, particularly in Europe.”
Nigeria’s LNG exports saw a significant rebound in late 2025, hitting a five-year high in December at 2.1 billion cubic meters, driven by improved gas supply and plant utilisation, according to statistics from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The development positions Nigeria for a major surge in gas exports as new facilities, such as Nigeria LNG Train 7, come online, boosting its role as a key African supplier despite earlier challenges with theft and infrastructure.
In a new development, there are fresh concerns that as several countries invest in expanding their LNG production and export capacity, and significant quantities of the gas are expected to come online in 2026 after a record 2025, supply could soon outpace demand.
This begs the question: just how much LNG is needed to “fill the gap” as the world develops its renewable energy capacity?
Last year was a record year for LNG trade, as exports exceeded the quantities predicted in several industry forecasts.
The expansion of the world’s LNG trade has been led by the United States, which exported over 100 million metric tonnes of LNG in 2025. This was driven by several new plants coming online across the country.
The U.S. exported an estimated 111 million metric tonnes (mmt) of LNG in 2025, 23 mmt more than the previous year and far higher than Qatar’s 20 mmt, the world’s second-largest exporter, according to the data analysis firm LSEG.
LNG shipments from the U.S. contributed roughly 25 per cent of global LNG exports in 2025. The new Plaquemines facility, operated by Venture Global, the country’s second-largest export facility, shipped a reported 16.4 mmt of LNG last year after commencing operations in December 2024. Several other U.S. facilities also increased their deliveries last year following several years of investment. In December, the U.S. set a record monthly LNG export figure of 11.5 mmt.
The head of business intelligence at shipping firm Poten and Partners, Jason Feer, stated, “It is remarkable that in nine years the U.S. has gone from zero LNG exports to over 100 mmt, and the success validates the U.S. approach of selling free on board and pulling gas off the grid and the reliability of U.S. supplies.”
As the U.S. ramped up its LNG production and export capacity, there were fears of a glut. However, as the U.S. and Europe introduced sanctions on Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several European countries were forced to search for alternative gas suppliers, a role that the United States was well-prepared to take on.
Europe purchased 9 mmt of LNG from the U.S. in December alone, further reducing its imports from Russia.
While Europe still requires LNG, there are fears of the region’s growing overdependence on the United States, which could provide up to 80 per cent of its LNG imports by 2030.
On the other hand, as Europe ramps up its renewable energy capacity, fears of an LNG glut in 2026 and beyond are resurfacing.
The U.S. Plaquemines facility is expected to reach its full production capacity this year. Meanwhile, Cheniere’s smaller modular plants will reach full capacity or may even be expanded. QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil’s Golden Pass LNG is also expected to start production this year.
Together, U.S. LNG projects could increase the country’s annual LNG production by another 20 mmt, according to estimates.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has credited the NLNG/SEPNU with leading the rise in Nigeria’s domestic cooking gas supply, which peaked at 5,332 tonnes per day in July 2026.
The NMDPRA’s July 2026 midstream and downstream statistics showed that total liquefied petroleum gas supply increased from 5,100 tonnes per day in June to 5,332 tonnes per day in July.
The NLNG/SEPNU supplied 2,031 tonnes per day through vessels, representing about 38 per cent of the total supply during the month.
Other processing plants supplied 1,513 tonnes per day through trucks, while the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) supplied 829 tonnes per day.
Imports accounted for 959 tonnes per day.
The figures showed that domestic sources supplied 4,373 tonnes per day, representing about 82 percent of the total LPG supply in July, while imports accounted for the remaining 18 percent.
The July supply level was the highest recorded in the 13-month period covered by the NMDPRA data.
LPG supply stood at 4,500 tonnes per day in July 2025 before rising to 5,000 tonnes in August and declining to 3,900 tonnes in September last year.
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It subsequently increased to 4,500 tonnes in October, 5,000 tonnes in November and 5,200 tonnes in December.
In January 2026, supply stood at 5,100 tonnes per day before falling to 4,700 tonnes in February and March, 4,500 tonnes in April and 4,100 tonnes in May.
The supply level then rose to 5,100 tonnes per day in June before reaching 5,332 tonnes in July.
The latest figures indicate a continued strengthening of domestic LPG supply, with local sources now accounting for the bulk of the cooking gas available in the country.
However, our correspondent reports that LPG prices have yet to fall below the N1,000 per kilogramme level after the sudden surge in May.
Though prices have plunged from a high of N2,400/kg to between N1,300 and N1,600, depending on location.
The NLNG recently accused some marketers of contributing to the sharp rise in the price of cooking gas by buying liquefied petroleum gas from the company at prices between N800 and N900 per kilogramme and selling it for as much as N2,400/kg in the retail market.
The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of NLNG, Adeleye Falade, disclosed this during a recent media briefing in Lagos, where he attributed the price spike to supply shortages, artificial scarcity and distortions in the distribution chain rather than the company’s pricing.
According to him, when the retail price of LPG climbed to N2,400/kg, the NLNG was selling the product to buyers at between N800 and N900/kg. He said the price was supposed to be in the range of N1,000 to N1,200, going by the recommendation of the NMDPRA.
“When the product was being sold at N2,400 in the market, guess how much they (marketers) were lifting it from us? It was between N800 and N900 per kg. And NMDPRA recommended that by the time you put in transportation costs and all other things, it shouldn’t be selling more than N1,000, N1,100 or N1,200. So, there’s also some distortion that happened on the sales side, which I know the regulators are working on right now to get control of it,” he stated.
On Tuesday, renewed escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran pressured oil prices to over $94/barrel.
Current hostilities which witnessed American air strikes on Iranian targets and triggered global concerns of disruption to crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Brent crude rose $4.06, or 4.49 percent, to $94.55 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained $4.44, or 5.18 percent, to $90.20 a barrel. Murban crude also surged by $7.19, or 7.30 percent, to $105.60 a barrel, according to Oilprice.com.
The rally followed the United States’ fresh strikes on Iran, with Washington saying its forces had targeted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC).
“Today (Tuesday) at 12 p.m. ET (1600 GMT), US forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran.
“The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region,” the US Central Command said.
The latest attacks have raised fresh concerns about the security around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies. Oil prices had already risen following the exchange of attacks between the two countries over the weekend, while reports of attacks on tankers further fuelled supply concerns.
Reuters reported that two supertankers carrying Saudi oil were struck by unknown projectiles within minutes of each other while travelling outbound through the Strait of Hormuz late on Monday, according to shipping intelligence and tracking firms.
Following the reports, Brent crude futures, which were already up about two percent, jumped by almost another two percent.
Iran has also threatened to prevent oil exports from the Gulf if the US continues its attacks. “If the enemy wants us not to export oil from the Persian Gulf, no one will be able to export oil,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf was quoted as saying by Iranian media.
The renewed confrontation has heightened fears that the six-month-old conflict could escalate into a wider war and threaten crude supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region.
The conflict had previously shifted towards sanctions, blockades and economic pressure, but the latest exchange of attacks has raised concerns about a return to sustained military confrontation.
US President Donald Trump warned Iran that it would face a stronger response if it retaliated against the latest American strikes.The US strikes came after Iranian missiles were fired at two US air bases in Jordan in response to an earlier American attack on Iran’s Larak Island.
The latest escalation also coincided with plans by Washington to impose additional economic sanctions on Tehran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said bank sanctions against Iran were likely to be announced this week and next, while warning that Washington would also target other entities doing business with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has said that 172 Host Communities Development Trusts (HCDTs) have so far been incorporated by oil and gas companies operating across the country.
The chief executive, NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed this while addressing the leadership of the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) in Abuja.
Under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), oil and gas companies, referred to as settlors, are required to contribute three percent of their Operating Expenditure from the preceding financial year into a Host Communities Trust Fund for the benefit of communities where they operate.
Eyesan said the NUPRC had been enforcing the provisions of the Act, particularly those relating to host communities and the obligations of operating companies, and had put in place regulations and procedures to streamline the process.
“We have laid out procedures for doing things and we have put regulations in place to streamline the process. So far, we have registered 172 HCDTs and we have been able to manage contributions by settlors,” she said.
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She said the trusts had funded the construction of schools, hospitals and other infrastructure, and had contributed significantly to peace and stability in previously volatile communities, which in turn had led to an increase in oil production.
Eyesan, however, admitted that some of the HCDTs had become subjects of litigation over disagreements on the constitution of their Boards of Trustees. She said the Commission had been working to ensure the trusts run smoothly, and that its Alternative Dispute Resolution Centre had played a key role in addressing some of the grievances.
She said that while the RMAFC’s interest in host communities was appreciated, oversight of how the funds are managed remained the exclusive preserve of the NUPRC.
The NUPRC boss also promised to investigate the lingering disagreement between Sterling Oil Exploration and Energy Production Company (SEEPCO) and its host community in Anambra State.
Responding, the chairman of the RMAFC, Dr Mohammed Bello Shehu, commended the NUPRC for overseeing reforms in the oil and gas sector that had contributed to growth in production.
Shehu said the RMAFC regards the upstream oil and gas sector as important, given that it accounts for a large share of revenue accruing to the Federation Account.
He thanked the NUPRC leadership for honouring the RMAFC’s invitation and called for stronger collaboration between the two institutions in the interest of the country.
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