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Nigeria Faces Mixed LNG Demand Outlook As NLNG Sustains Growth

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Though the Nigeria LNG (NLNG) is focused on its capacity expansion plans, tilting towards bringing on-stream its Train-7, mixed projections on the global demand side are raising serious business development concerns.

Recent reports indicate that the NLNG’s Train 7 project is a significant investment, with a total cost of $10 billion, which is highly significant because Russia’s gas cuts have left the European Union (EU) looking to Nigeria as an alternative to augment its gas needs.

The Deputy Director-General of the European Commission’s Department of Energy, Matthew Baldwin, said Friday, “Europe is in a tight spot in relation to gas following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and instability in our gas market, the threat perhaps to cut off supply altogether.”

Baldwin, who visited Abuja, said the EU is looking to increase Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports from Nigeria above current levels.

Nigeria currently supplies 14 per cent of the EU’s gas imports, while 60 per cent of Nigeria’s LNG shipments go to Europe, he said. “We want to expand what is currently at 14 per cent share of total LNG imports from Nigeria. We want that to go up,” he said.

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Baldwin said that the gas relationship between Nigeria and the EU has extraordinary potential, with the latter determined to deliver on it.

The NLNG is also actively participating in the 2026 International LNG Conference in Qatar, where the company is expected to highlight its commitment plans and growth strategies.

While it has been projected that Nigeria’s revenue from the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will get a major boost in 2026 as global output is set to jump, another interesting conversation is puncturing this hope.

It was projected that a boost in global supply will ease constraints seen since the 2022 Ukraine war, which dampened prices, and could spur demand, including from top importers China and India, analysts say.

This year marks the start of a large wave of supply that analysts expect to last until 2029, depressing prices and potentially driving more demand from emerging economies.

“2026 is expected to be a transitional year for the LNG market,” said Kpler in a report quoted by Reuters. “The market is expected to move away from tightness toward ample availability, with sufficient supply even as winter demand and storage needs emerge, particularly in Europe.”

Nigeria’s LNG exports saw a significant rebound in late 2025, hitting a five-year high in December at 2.1 billion cubic meters, driven by improved gas supply and plant utilisation, according to statistics from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The development positions Nigeria for a major surge in gas exports as new facilities, such as Nigeria LNG Train 7, come online, boosting its role as a key African supplier despite earlier challenges with theft and infrastructure.

In a new development, there are fresh concerns that as several countries invest in expanding their LNG production and export capacity, and significant quantities of the gas are expected to come online in 2026 after a record 2025, supply could soon outpace demand.

This begs the question: just how much LNG is needed to “fill the gap” as the world develops its renewable energy capacity?

Last year was a record year for LNG trade, as exports exceeded the quantities predicted in several industry forecasts.

The expansion of the world’s LNG trade has been led by the United States, which exported over 100 million metric tonnes of LNG in 2025. This was driven by several new plants coming online across the country.

The U.S. exported an estimated 111 million metric tonnes (mmt) of LNG in 2025, 23 mmt more than the previous year and far higher than Qatar’s 20 mmt, the world’s second-largest exporter, according to the data analysis firm LSEG.

LNG shipments from the U.S. contributed roughly 25 per cent of global LNG exports in 2025. The new Plaquemines facility, operated by Venture Global, the country’s second-largest export facility, shipped a reported 16.4 mmt of LNG last year after commencing operations in December 2024. Several other U.S. facilities also increased their deliveries last year following several years of investment. In December, the U.S. set a record monthly LNG export figure of 11.5 mmt.

The head of business intelligence at shipping firm Poten and Partners, Jason Feer, stated, “It is remarkable that in nine years the U.S. has gone from zero LNG exports to over 100 mmt, and the success validates the U.S. approach of selling free on board and pulling gas off the grid and the reliability of U.S. supplies.”

As the U.S. ramped up its LNG production and export capacity, there were fears of a glut. However, as the U.S. and Europe introduced sanctions on Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, several European countries were forced to search for alternative gas suppliers, a role that the United States was well-prepared to take on.

Europe purchased 9 mmt of LNG from the U.S. in December alone, further reducing its imports from Russia.

While Europe still requires LNG, there are fears of the region’s growing overdependence on the United States, which could provide up to 80 per cent of its LNG imports by 2030.

On the other hand, as Europe ramps up its renewable energy capacity, fears of an LNG glut in 2026 and beyond are resurfacing.

The U.S. Plaquemines facility is expected to reach its full production capacity this year. Meanwhile, Cheniere’s smaller modular plants will reach full capacity or may even be expanded. QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil’s Golden Pass LNG is also expected to start production this year.

Together, U.S. LNG projects could increase the country’s annual LNG production by another 20 mmt, according to estimates.

Energy

OPEC+ Retains Output at 30.9mbpd

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Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.238m bpd in June – OPEC

In a confirmation of expectations that more policy adjustments will not occur until 2027, OPEC+ oil-producing countries have voted to keep December production targets steady.

The OPEC+ alliance, yesterday, agreed in principle to keep its combined December oil output targets unchanged at 30.9 million barrels per day (bpd), with Saudi Arabia’s individual target held at 10.5 million bpd.

The resolution was passed at a virtual meeting attended by seven core OPEC+ members- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

This is as the group continues to struggle with export disruptions from the Middle East crisis, while Gulf members have been boosting exports that have been disrupted for months by the conflict, most are still pumping well below their targets.

OPEC+ comprises the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia. Only the seven members — plus the United Arab Emirates (UAE) until it quit OPEC in May — have been involved in monthly output decisions in recent years.

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All members of the 21-country group are due to meet on November 29, when it will decide 2027 quotas.

“Today’s decision was the easy one,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad. “The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”

Oil prices jumped more than two per cent on Friday, with Brent crude settling at almost $118 a barrel, the highest since April, as traders braced for a potential escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections.

“OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027,” Leon added. “The group has to plan around huge uncertainty over the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of the surplus that could emerge once disrupted barrels return.”

The seven members have been boosting output targets for much of 2026 and in September completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. At earlier meetings, they kept the targets steady for October and November.

OPEC+ still has one more layer ⁠of production cuts of about two million bpd covering most members through the end of 2026.

The group needs to complete a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas ⁠and shape plans to unwind those cuts, sources have said.

The Iran war has disrupted projects to expand capacity across the Middle East, throwing estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, Reuters reported in October. As a result, the review is now expected to be completed by mid-November.

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Energy

U.S. to Tweak LNG Safety Rules for Foreign Markets

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With a view to accelerating infrastructure development and reducing operating costs, the U.S. Department of Transportation is contemplating a new set of safety regulations for liquefied natural gas facilities.

This is coming as American exporters prepare for another major expansion in global natural gas markets.

It was gathered that the proposal, issued by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), would modernize federal LNG safety requirements by incorporating standards developed by the National Fire Protection Association.

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The changes are to address facility location, engineering, construction, operations, and maintenance, with greater flexibility to adopt newer technologies.

Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy estimates that the updated framework could save LNG operators approximately $100 million annually while maintaining safety protections. The projected savings are an agency estimate, and the proposal has not yet become a final regulation.

The initiative comes as the United States strengthens its position as the world’s largest LNG exporter. American export capacity is expected to increase by approximately 100 million metric tons annually by the end of the decade, supported by projects already under development and additional planned investments.

Global LNG demand has also become more sensitive to geopolitical disruptions. Interruptions to Middle Eastern gas shipments associated with the conflict involving Iran have encouraged international buyers to evaluate alternative suppliers and diversify long-term procurement arrangements.

U.S. LNG developers have responded with additional investment commitments. Projects representing more than 50 million metric tons of annual capacity have reached final investment decisions since the beginning of 2025.

Major exporters, including Cheniere Energy and Venture Global, are pursuing additional development opportunities as federal policy places greater emphasis on expanding domestic energy infrastructure.

However, regulatory modernization does not eliminate the financial or operational challenges associated with LNG construction.

Developers must still secure the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approvals, complete environmental reviews, arrange financing, and address potential legal challenges. Pipeline connections, specialized equipment availability, construction costs, and long-term customer contracts also influence project schedules.

Delfin LNG, which is developing a floating export facility, illustrates the importance of infrastructure safety approvals. Its associated pipeline has not received publicly confirmed PHMSA clearance to resume operations following an explosion earlier this year.

Separately, FERC has proposed a streamlined authorization framework for certain modifications and expansions at existing LNG facilities, including activities that could qualify for automatic approval or shortened review periods.

For energy investors, the combined regulatory initiatives could improve development visibility and reduce some costs, although their financial impact will depend on final requirements and individual project circumstances.

Additional LNG export capacity could support demand for U.S. natural gas production, particularly from major producing regions connected to Gulf Coast terminals.

Midstream operators, engineering companies, compression equipment manufacturers, and construction contractors could also benefit from continued infrastructure investment.

At the same time, greater export demand may increase domestic natural gas price sensitivity to international markets, creating different implications for producers, utilities, and industrial consumers.

Investors will be monitoring the final PHMSA regulations, FERC permitting developments, LNG project financing decisions, and the pace at which proposed export capacity enters commercial service.

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Energy

NALPGAM Preaches Innovation, Safety to LPG Operators

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GAS: New Temile/Hyundai LPG Vessel to bring down high cost of cooking gas in Nigeria-NCDMB

The Nigerian Association of Liquefied Petroleum Gas Marketers (NALPGAM) has urged operators in Nigeria’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) industry to strengthen safety standards, improve regulatory compliance and adopt digital technologies to reduce operational losses and drive business growth.

The association said improved operational practices would help protect investments, enhance efficiency, build consumer confidence and support the sustainable expansion of C.

The call followed its 2026 webinar, themed “Downstream LPG Operational Excellence and Compliance,” which brought together industry operators, regulators and other stakeholders to discuss safety risks, market volatility, operational inefficiencies and regulatory requirements in the downstream LPG sector.

Speaking at the event, NALPGAM National President, Edu Inyang, said the industry’s long-term growth would depend on more than increased consumption and supply volumes, stressing the need to embed safety and operational efficiency in everyday business practices.

“The future of Nigeria’s LPG industry cannot be achieved by increasing volumes alone. We must grow safely, responsibly, efficiently and sustainably. Safety is not an occasional campaign; it must become a continuous industry culture,” he said.

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A major outcome of the webinar was a proposal for a NALPGAM Standard of Operational Excellence, anchored on four principles: safe and well-maintained facilities, competent and adequately trained operators, regulatory-compliant processes, and consumer protection.

Participants urged operators to integrate safety into routine operations, strengthen preventive maintenance and comply with licensing and incident-reporting requirements.

They also called for an end to unsafe practices, including unauthorised propane blending and illegal decanting, warning that such activities could expose businesses and consumers to avoidable risks.

Inyang said compliance should be viewed as a means of strengthening business performance rather than merely fulfilling regulatory obligations.

“Compliance is not merely a regulatory burden; it is a business advantage. Well-managed LPG operations reduce accidents, improve efficiency, protect investments and strengthen public confidence in our industry,” he said.

The webinar also highlighted the role of digital technologies in improving operational efficiency and accountability across the LPG value chain.

Participants identified smart filling systems, automated tank gauges, load cells, flow meters and vehicle-tracking systems as practical tools for monitoring product movements, reducing losses and improving inventory management.

Wider adoption of these technologies, they said, could help operators strengthen operational controls, minimise discrepancies and improve the reliability of LPG distribution.

The discussions come as Nigeria seeks to expand LPG consumption to approximately five million tonnes annually by 2030, a target that will require increased investment, stronger distribution networks and wider consumer access.

Stakeholders called for greater industry participation in the Decade of Gas LPG penetration programme, alongside stronger collaboration to expand access, improve cylinder traceability and promote certified local manufacturing.

The NALPGAM also urged regulators and programme coordinators to involve its members more actively in implementing LPG penetration and cylinder recirculation initiatives.

According to the association, its members’ nationwide presence and proximity to consumers could help improve the reach and effectiveness of programmes designed to increase LPG adoption.

Reiterating the association’s position, Inyang said the industry must establish clear operational standards that protect consumers while supporting efficient and sustainable business practices.

“Our aspiration is clear: every LPG facility must be safe and properly maintained, every operator competent and adequately trained, every process compliant, and every customer protected. This is the standard of operational excellence we must collectively pursue,” he said.

The NALPGAM reaffirmed its commitment to working with government agencies, regulators and industry stakeholders to develop a safer, more efficient and competitive LPG market.

The association maintained that embedding safety, strengthening compliance and deploying appropriate technologies would be critical to improving operational performance and supporting the long-term growth of Nigeria’s LPG industry.

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