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Nigerian stocks have room to run as analysts outline bull case

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LAGOS – In 2013, valuations in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All Share Index (ASI) increased by 47 percent, the most since 2007 as banks recovered from the 2009 financial crisis and blue chips, from Dangote Cement to Nestle, rode the consumer boom to boost returns.

Analysts believe investors shouldn’t bet against equities now – despite the broad based rally – as the bull-market has room to run.

“Why must investors look at Nigeria? Because from Feb 2014, we should see that Nigeria is the biggest economy in Africa at over $400 billion, and because it has one of the best reform teams in any country globally,” Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said in an emailed note, sent on Monday, Jan.6.

“Electricity reform is working. Growth of 7 percent a year, since 2000, means Nigeria’s GDP is on course to be bigger than 2012 Japan, at over $5 trillion in today’s money by 2050.”

The NSE ASI has risen 109.3 percent since its February 2009 low of 19,803.6 points to 41,450 points last Friday.

Nigerian stocks exchangeNigerian equities will from May 2014 make up 20 percent of the MSCI frontier markets index (the key benchmark for equity investors) from 14 percent of the benchmark today.

This should lead to a further bid for Nigerian equities from global fund managers who have exposure to frontier markets.

The NSE’s equity market capitalisation of N13.2 trillion ($82 billion), is only equivalent to 31 percent of Nigeria’s $262 billion economy at year end 2012, meaning the stock market has room to grow before it truly reflects the economic activities that are taking place within the country.

Jim O’Neill who coined the term BRIC in 2001, as potential powerhouses of the world economy, has now identified the “MINT” countries – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – as emerging economic giants.

“The creativity in Nigeria is so easy to get enthused about, and I returned from a recent visit full of excitement about different investment opportunities,” wrote O’Neill in a January 6 article.

Few stocks were left behind in last year’s advance as most of the blue chip names and banks that make up about 90 percent of capitalisation in the NSE-ASI rose.

All the major sector indices such as the NSE: Banking, Consumer goods, Oil and gas, and Industrial, index gained at least 20 percent or more last year, according to data from the bourse.

Growing corporate profits, dividends and current-account surpluses have made frontier countries like Nigeria resilient to investor concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce monetary stimulus.

“We are very, very optimistic for 2014 – we are expecting average growth of 30 percent group wide,” said Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and chairman of Dangote Cement, as he outlined plans in an interview to invest $4.7 billion to finish cement projects in about 18 countries, including Nigeria.

Analysts at Meristem Securities Limited, project that First quarter (Q1) returns will be driven largely by corporate earnings scorecards and dividend/ bonus benefits expectations.

“We look forward to modest earnings growth as banks focus on growing top lines and costs containment,” Meristem securities research analysts, said in a response to BusinessDay questions.

“That said, our outlook remains modest, as we expect foreign portfolio managers (who hold strong attraction for banking stocks) to tread cautiously on the banks, ahead of 2015 general elections maneuverings, and a new regime in the CBN.”

The NSE attracted N456.18 billion ($2.85 billion) from foreign portfolio investors between January and October 2013. Foreign investors were responsible for 51.43 percent of all flows for the period, data from the bourse show.

A further bullish case for equities is Nigeria’s N3.7 trillion ($23.2 billion) pension fund, which is growing at $2.5bn a year, or roughly 1 percent of GDP, per annum.

“Assuming pension funds continue to grow by $2.5bn (N400 billion) a year, and that roughly 20-25 percent are allocated to equities, this is a constant $600mn (N96 billion) annual bid for equities,” said Robertson.

– BUSINESS DAY

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Imported Petrol Now Costs More than Dangote Fuel – Report

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The landed cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) has climbed above the gantry price offered by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, reinforcing calls by petroleum marketers for Nigeria to halt fuel importation and prioritise local refining.

The latest Energy Bulletin released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria showed that the spot landed cost of imported petrol stood at N1,223.32 per litre as of July 29.

The price is higher than the Dangote refinery’s gantry price of N1,215 per litre, indicating that imported petrol currently costs marketers more than supplies sourced from the 650,000-barrels-per-day Lekki-based refinery.

The MEMAN bulletin also showed that Brent crude averaged $90 per barrel during the review period.

The development comes days after the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria renewed its call for an end to petrol importation, arguing that local refining capacity is sufficient to meet the country’s fuel demand.

IPMAN National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, recently told The PUNCH that there was no justification for continued petrol imports when local refineries, particularly the Dangote refinery, were producing enough to supply the domestic market.

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He argued that importing petrol when locally refined products were available only exerted additional pressure on foreign exchange and undermined investments in domestic refining.

The latest pricing data appears to support the marketers’ position, with the landed cost of imported petrol now exceeding the Dangote refinery’s gantry price.

According to the MEMAN bulletin, Dangote’s coastal price for PMS stood at N1,195 per litre, while its gantry price was N1,215 per litre, inclusive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority charges.

The report also showed that the naira averaged N1,367.03/$ during the review period, while international crude oil prices remained elevated, contributing to higher import costs.

The rise in global crude prices also pushed up the cost of refined petroleum products internationally. The price of diesel traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in Europe averaged $1,246.54 per metric tonne during the review period.

The bulletin further revealed that the spot landed cost of diesel rose to N1,739.96 per litre, compared with a 30-day average of N1,427.00 per litre, while aviation fuel climbed to N1,616.43 per litre against a 30-day average of N1,421.10 per litre.

The pricing trend suggests that locally refined petrol currently offers marketers a cheaper alternative than imports.

Earlier, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria urged the Federal Government to halt the importation of petrol, arguing that imported petrol has become more expensive than locally refined products and is frustrating efforts to stabilise prices in the downstream sector.

The association said the continued issuance of fuel import licences was worsening price volatility, putting additional pressure on the naira and undermining the competitiveness of domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Speaking with The PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, said the recent import licences issued by the NMDPRA had failed to achieve their intended objective of moderating domestic fuel prices.

According to him, petrol imported under the new licences is being sold at rates significantly higher than the price of products supplied by the Dangote refinery.

Meanwhile, data from Petroleumprice.ng also showed that some depot owners continued to adjust their ex-depot petrol prices on Thursday amid changing market conditions. AIPEC sold at N1,216 per litre.

Ardova reduced its ex-depot price by N1 to N1,217 per litre, while Ascon and T-Time each cut their prices by N2 to N1,216 per litre. Emadeb, however, increased its price by N1 to N1,218 per litre, while NIPCO retained its price at N1,217 per litre.

Outside Lagos, Aradel raised its ex-depot price by N5 to N1,240 per litre in Port Harcourt. Matrix and Sigmund reduced their prices by N10 each to N1,225 and N1,224 per litre, respectively, while T.S.L. cut its price by N15 to N1,225 per litre.

In Calabar, Hong Petroleum, Mainland and Sobaz each reduced their depot prices by N5 to N1,220 per litre. In Warri, A.Y.M. Shafa increased its price by N3 to N1,233 per litre, while Optima raised its price by N2 to N1,232 per litre. Matrix reduced its price by N3 to N1,230 per litre, while Rainoil cut its price by N2 to N1,240 per litre.

The PUNCH reports that the pump prices of petrol currently hover around N1,250 to N1,300 per litre in Lagos and Ogun states, while they are higher in the North and other distant locations.

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NMDPRA Calls for ECOWAS Petroleum Products Pricing Policy

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A call has gone to the political leadership across the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the institution of a regional pricing benchmark for oil and gas to address rising concerns of uneven pricing.

Making the call on Wednesday in Abuja, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Rabiu Umar, noted that a standard pricing formula across the region would promote cross-border trade and attract investment into the downstream petroleum sector.

He expressed concern that Africa still relies on international markets to determine the prices of petroleum products produced within the continent despite its abundant resources.

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He used the media briefing to disclose that Nigeria, in partnership with S&P Global Commodity Insights and the West Africa Regulators Forum (WARF), would organise the second West Africa Refined Fuel Conference from 11 to 12 August in Abuja.

The theme of the conference is: “Funding West Africa Infrastructure & Distribution to Create a Transparent Market for Regional Price Benchmarks.”

According to him, the event is aimed at developing a formidable regional marketplace where petroleum products can be traded competitively.

He said: “The vision is to establish West Africa as a credible regional marketplace where petroleum products can be traded efficiently, transparently and competitively.

“By strengthening infrastructure, harmonising regulations and improving market data, the region can enhance price discovery, facilitate cross-border trade and attract greater investment.”

Umar said progress had been recorded since the maiden edition of the conference in 2025, including the establishment of the West Africa Regulators Forum, the publication of West African reference prices, and the opening of S&P Global Commodity Insights’ regional office in Abuja.

He said the 2026 edition would focus on infrastructure financing, regional cooperation, market transparency, logistics development, and expanding refining capacity to improve energy security and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

He identified pipelines, storage facilities, marine terminals, ports, rail infrastructure, digital commodity exchanges, trading platforms, strategic petroleum reserves, LNG infrastructure, and logistics corridors as critical investments needed to create an integrated regional energy market.

Umar stressed that regulators have a key role to play in ensuring fair competition, investor confidence, consumer protection, and regional cooperation through harmonised standards and regulations.

He cited the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub in Europe as an example of a benchmark that considers supply, demand, transportation, and logistics costs.

He said: “The more we are able to produce, the more relevant it becomes to have our own reference pricing.”

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Summit Bank Backs Landmark Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market

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In line with its corporate vision, Summit Bank has reinforced its commitment to opportunities and business expansion, entrepreneurship, and Nigeria’s growing digital economy through its support of the newly-commissioned Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market in Kano. Established as a landmark commercial initiative, the digital market will enhance ecommerce and economic opportunities for the African market. It is projected to create more than 100,000 jobs and generate an estimated N50bn annually in economic activity.

Summit Bank joined government officials, industry leaders, and initiative stakeholders on Saturday for the official commissioning of the market. Among the dignitaries were Barr. Abdulkarim Kabiru Maude, Kano State Commissioner of Justice; Yusuf Ata, Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, represented by his Special Assistant (Technical), Kabir Aminu Dutse; Ahmed Idris, former Accountant General of the Federation; Dr. Mansur Muhtah, Chairman of Bank of Industry; and Alhaji Jamilu Abdussalam, CEO, Hajjaj Real Estate.

In his remarks, Dr. Sirajo Salisu, Summit Bank’s MD/CEO, reaffirmed the bank’s belief that access to ethical finance and a thriving commercial ecosystem remain key drivers of sustainable economic growth.

Developed under a public-private partnership (PPP) involving Kano State Government, Hajjaj ZOEC Real Estate, and ZOEC Construction, with Summit Bank as a proud sponsor, the digital market was inaugurated in Tudun Wada, Sabon Gari, Kano. As a transformative project, the bank’s support reflects a commitment to supporting businesses, deepening financial inclusion, and building a more connected digital economy. “We believe this market is not only an opportunity for Kano State or Northern Nigeria but for the entire African continent. Instead of travelling all the way to China to purchase goods in bulk, traders will be able to come to Kano and place their orders here,” Alhaji Abdussalam said, during his remarks.

ALSO READ: Dangote Cement Exports Rise 62.3%, as H1 Profit Hits ₦638.5bn

While speaking during the ceremony, Dr. Salisu said the significance of the digital market goes beyond its physical infrastructure. “Markets have always been at the centre of enterprise. What the Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market represents is the next stage of evolution that blends physical and digital commerce into a modern ecosystem where businesses can grow, technology can thrive, and entrepreneurs can unlock new opportunities,” he said.

Dr. Salisu said supporting enterprise is a core purpose of Summit Bank as a non-interest financial institution. “We believe banking should do more than provide financial services; it should help create the conditions that allow businesses to flourish,” adding that when entrepreneurs have access to the right ecosystem, markets become stronger, jobs are created, families earn better livelihoods, and communities prosper. He said this is the kind of impact that Summit Bank supports.

Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market is designed as the largest, purpose-built modern business hub for electronic dealers, tech entrepreneurs, wholesalers, retailers, and investors across Nigeria and West Africa. It will provide more than 1500 trading spaces, according to Abdussalam, with state-of-the-art amenities and digital infrastructure. This development strengthens Kano’s longstanding position as a frontline commercial center in Nigeria, and a hub other region can feed into.

For Summit Bank, the development aligns closely with its broader mission of supporting productive enterprise through ethical, transparent and customer-focused banking solutions. The Bank believes that sustainable economic development is built not only through access to finance but also through meaningful partnerships that drive business growth.

The commissioning also reflects Summit Bank’s growing engagement with Nigeria’s SME sector. Through initiatives such as its recent Market Storm activations across key commercial centers in Kano, Kaduna and Abuja, the Bank has continued to deepen relationships with traders, entrepreneurs and small business owners, taking financial education and banking solutions directly to the communities where commerce happens every day.

Summit Bank said it remains committed to supporting initiatives that advance entrepreneurship, expand financial inclusion and strengthen Nigeria’s digital economy, while helping businesses build lasting value for themselves, their customers and their communities.

As an innovative non-interest financial institution, the bank continues to champion a banking model rooted in ethics, transparency, partnership, shared prosperity and responsible growth, connecting finance with real economic activity and contributes meaningfully to national development.

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