Business
Nigerian stocks have room to run as analysts outline bull case
LAGOS – In 2013, valuations in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All Share Index (ASI) increased by 47 percent, the most since 2007 as banks recovered from the 2009 financial crisis and blue chips, from Dangote Cement to Nestle, rode the consumer boom to boost returns.
Analysts believe investors shouldn’t bet against equities now – despite the broad based rally – as the bull-market has room to run.
“Why must investors look at Nigeria? Because from Feb 2014, we should see that Nigeria is the biggest economy in Africa at over $400 billion, and because it has one of the best reform teams in any country globally,” Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said in an emailed note, sent on Monday, Jan.6.
“Electricity reform is working. Growth of 7 percent a year, since 2000, means Nigeria’s GDP is on course to be bigger than 2012 Japan, at over $5 trillion in today’s money by 2050.”
The NSE ASI has risen 109.3 percent since its February 2009 low of 19,803.6 points to 41,450 points last Friday.
Nigerian equities will from May 2014 make up 20 percent of the MSCI frontier markets index (the key benchmark for equity investors) from 14 percent of the benchmark today.
This should lead to a further bid for Nigerian equities from global fund managers who have exposure to frontier markets.
The NSE’s equity market capitalisation of N13.2 trillion ($82 billion), is only equivalent to 31 percent of Nigeria’s $262 billion economy at year end 2012, meaning the stock market has room to grow before it truly reflects the economic activities that are taking place within the country.
Jim O’Neill who coined the term BRIC in 2001, as potential powerhouses of the world economy, has now identified the “MINT” countries – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – as emerging economic giants.
“The creativity in Nigeria is so easy to get enthused about, and I returned from a recent visit full of excitement about different investment opportunities,” wrote O’Neill in a January 6 article.
Few stocks were left behind in last year’s advance as most of the blue chip names and banks that make up about 90 percent of capitalisation in the NSE-ASI rose.
All the major sector indices such as the NSE: Banking, Consumer goods, Oil and gas, and Industrial, index gained at least 20 percent or more last year, according to data from the bourse.
Growing corporate profits, dividends and current-account surpluses have made frontier countries like Nigeria resilient to investor concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve will reduce monetary stimulus.
“We are very, very optimistic for 2014 – we are expecting average growth of 30 percent group wide,” said Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and chairman of Dangote Cement, as he outlined plans in an interview to invest $4.7 billion to finish cement projects in about 18 countries, including Nigeria.
Analysts at Meristem Securities Limited, project that First quarter (Q1) returns will be driven largely by corporate earnings scorecards and dividend/ bonus benefits expectations.
“We look forward to modest earnings growth as banks focus on growing top lines and costs containment,” Meristem securities research analysts, said in a response to BusinessDay questions.
“That said, our outlook remains modest, as we expect foreign portfolio managers (who hold strong attraction for banking stocks) to tread cautiously on the banks, ahead of 2015 general elections maneuverings, and a new regime in the CBN.”
The NSE attracted N456.18 billion ($2.85 billion) from foreign portfolio investors between January and October 2013. Foreign investors were responsible for 51.43 percent of all flows for the period, data from the bourse show.
A further bullish case for equities is Nigeria’s N3.7 trillion ($23.2 billion) pension fund, which is growing at $2.5bn a year, or roughly 1 percent of GDP, per annum.
“Assuming pension funds continue to grow by $2.5bn (N400 billion) a year, and that roughly 20-25 percent are allocated to equities, this is a constant $600mn (N96 billion) annual bid for equities,” said Robertson.
– BUSINESS DAY
Business
NNPC Ltd: $3.4bn Saved Through Contract Restructuring
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) claimed that it saved $3.4 billion through contract restructuring and optimisation between April 2025 and July 2026.
Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, made the assertion in Abuja at the opening of the 25th Nigeria Oil & Gas (NOG) Energy Week, while highlighting the impact of ongoing reforms aimed at improving operational efficiency, reducing costs, strengthening partnerships, and enhancing value delivery to the federation.
Ojulari also stated that the national oil company had maintained full compliance with its joint venture cash call obligations.
ALSO READ: Oil, Gas Deals Push Nigeria’s FDI to $4 Billion
According to the scorecard presented by the NNPC Ltd, the $3.4 billion cost savings were realised through contract restructuring and optimisation initiatives across the company’s operations.
The reforms also contributed to an increase in government revenue, with the NNPC Ltd reporting a government take of N19.5 trillion, representing a 21.8 per cent year-on-year increase.
Besides, a major highlight of the report was NNPC’s 100 percent compliance with its joint venture cash call obligations across all its joint ventures from Financial Year 2025 to June 2026.
However, the company’s partners recorded a blended compliance rate of just 61 percent.
Of the 27 joint venture partners, only six were fully current with their obligations, while 13 recorded partial compliance with an average payment rate of 72 percent, and eight remained in significant default, paying an average of only 14 percent, prompting Joint Operating Agreement remedies.
The NNPC Ltd said it remained committed to sustaining its cash call obligations to support Nigeria’s target of achieving two million barrels of oil production per day.
Operationally, the company reported a six percent increase in crude oil production year-on-year and an 8.1 percent rise in gas production over the same period, reflecting improvements in upstream operations.
Ojulari also highlighted several strategic partnerships concluded since the last Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference, including a long term gas supply agreement with Nigeria LNG, progress on deepwater investments valued at over $20 billion, refinery related partnerships, industrial gas projects, and new gas supply arrangements.
Looking ahead, the company identified seven priority projects expected to drive production and gas infrastructure growth through 2027.
These, it said, included the UTM Floating LNG project, the OB3 East West Connector, the AKK gas pipeline, refinery technical enhancement projects, the Zabazaba deepwater development, the Owowo field, and the BSWAP project.
The state oil major added that the combination of cost optimisation, stronger operational performance, improved infrastructure reliability, and strategic partnerships would reinforce Nigeria’s energy security, boost government revenues, and support sustainable growth in oil and gas production.
Ojulari said the national oil company achieved 98 percent recovery across five crude export terminals between April 2025 and May 2026, up from one per cent at Bonny in June 2022.
He put current output at 1.71mbpd, the highest in five years, with the NNPC Exploration and Production Limited (NEPL) hitting a record 365,000 bpd.
Gas production, he said, reached 7.5 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscf/d) following the River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Pipeline and inauguration of the ANOH Gas Plant.
Ojulari added that the NNPC Ltd had “zero tolerance for partners who are not able to fund their Cash-call” and had begun invoking default clauses.
He stressed collaboration over control, saying, “We have rid ourselves of any pseudo-regulation. We are not the super-regulator. Let them regulate. We want to work.”
Business
Energia, Oando Inaugurate Board for HCDT in Delta Community
Energia Limited and its Joint Venture partner, Oando Plc, have inaugurated the board of trustees of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust (HCDT).
The inauguration marked a significant milestone in strengthening sustainable development, transparency and community participation across their host communities in Delta State.
The inauguration, held in Asaba, also featured the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Energia-Oando Joint Venture and the seven host communities, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021.
The event brought together representatives of Delta State Government, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), traditional rulers, community leaders, members of the newly inaugurated board of trustees, and other key stakeholders from the oil and gas industry.
ALSO READ: Oil, Gas Deals Push Nigeria’s FDI to $4 Billion
Representing the Governor of Deputy Governor, Delta State, Sir Monday Onyeme, Deputy Chief of Staff, Hon. Christopher Osaskwe commended Energia Limited and the host communities for successfully establishing the Trust and signing the Memorandum of Understanding.
He described the initiative as a demonstration of mutual commitment to partnership and sustainable development, while urging the newly inaugurated board to discharge its responsibilities with transparency, accountability and fairness.
He also encouraged host communities to continue protecting oil and gas infrastructure and embrace dialogue as the preferred approach to resolving disputes.
Managing Director, Energia Limited, Oladimeji Bashorun, described the inauguration as the beginning of a new chapter in the relationship between Energia and its host communities.
According to him, the company remains focused on building partnership, shared responsibility and sustainable development rather than dependency.
He noted that while the PIA provides a structured framework for host community development, Energia’s commitment to its host communities predates the legislation and has remained a core part of the Company’s operating philosophy since it achieved First Oil in 2009.
“Communities that host our operations should also share meaningfully in the opportunities created by those operations. Our success has always been closely connected to the success of our host communities,” Bashorun said.
He also disclosed that Energia has invested over N15.94 billion in community development initiatives since inception, supporting roads, drainage systems, healthcare facilities, educational programmes, scholarships, youth empowerment, solar-powered street lighting, community welfare initiatives and other social investments across its operational communities. He added that the Company dedicates 3% of its gross revenue annually to support sustainable development initiatives for its host communities.
Also speaking at the event, the Asset Manager of Oando, Seyi Fawora, reaffirmed the Joint Venture’s commitment to implementing the HCDT, noting that the partnership remains focused on building stronger, mutually beneficial relationships with host communities.
The representative of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr. Dennis Eyitemi, described the inauguration as a significant milestone in strengthening host community participation in development. He urged members of the Board of Trustees to remain accountable, transparent and committed to promoting the long-term welfare of the communities they represent.
Providing an overview of the HCDT framework, the Delta State Solicitor-General and Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Justice, Omamuzo Irebe, SAN, commended Energia for contributing beyond the statutory requirement prescribed under the Petroleum Industry Act and encouraged members of the Board to place community interests above personal interests while ensuring prudent management of the Trust’s resources.
The ceremony concluded with the swearing-in of the members of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust Board of Trustees. In his acceptance remarks, the Chairman of the Board, Chief Godwin Edeme, pledged the Board’s commitment to working with Energia Limited, Oando Petroleum Development Company and all stakeholders to ensure the effective implementation of the Trust for the benefit of present and future generations.
The establishment of the Ndokwa West-1 Host Community Development Trust represents another milestone in Energia’s long-standing commitment to responsible operations, stakeholder engagement and creating shared value for its host communities through sustainable, transparent and inclusive development. About Energia Limited
Energia Limited is a leading indigenous Nigerian exploration and production company with a proven track record of responsible hydrocarbon development and sustainable value creation. Since achieving First Oil in 2009, Energia has remained committed to operational excellence, environmental stewardship, and meaningful partnerships with its host communities, delivering lasting social and economic impact alongside its business growth.
Business
Oil, Gas Deals Push Nigeria’s FDI to $4 Billion
Foreign direct investment (FDI) flow into Nigeria climbed to roughly $4 billion last year, according to UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2026.
The report stated that “Inflows to Nigeria rose to about $4 billion, supported mainly by oil and gas–related IPF deals, including a major project valued at about $2 billion.”
The report indicated that Nigeria’s inflows were $1.6 billion in 2024, before increasing to roughly $4 billion (precisely $4.005 billion) in 2025 — reversing a downward trend that had seen inflows dip as low as $895 million in 2022. The figures place Nigeria among a cluster of West and East African economies that bucked a broader continental slowdown
According to the report, Nigeria’s outward investment also rose, from $408 million in 2024 to $1.19 billion in 2025, while its inward FDI stock reached nearly $93 billion by year-end.
“In Nigeria, deals included the sale of Shell’s onshore oil assets to the Nigerian consortium Renaissance Africa Energy and the acquisition of Lafarge Africa by Huaxin Cement of China, signaling both a wave of asset localization in the oil sector and continued Asian appetite for Nigerian industrial assets.
ALSO READ: Global Demand for Nigerian Crude Higher Outstrips Supply – FG
On the Greenfield side, conglomerate Dangote Group emerged as an outward investor in its own right, backing a $3 billion chemicals project in neighboring Ethiopia — one of the 10 largest Greenfield projects announced across the continent in 2025.
Policy shifts also featured prominently in the report’s account of the investment climate. It noted that the government introduced sweeping fiscal reforms during the year, including a new minimum tax regime aligned with international standards.
“Nigeria, for instance, introduced a minimum effective tax rate of 15 per cent for multinational enterprises with revenues exceeding €750 million,” the report noted.
Alongside this, the report observed that Nigeria, together with Cameroon, moved to tighten incentive structures more broadly, as the two countries “replaced broad tax exemptions with tiered tax credits and strict eligibility requirements, such as job creation, local value addition and priority sectors.” Separately, the government rolled out targeted relief for the petroleum sector, introducing “performance-based tax credits for companies in the upstream petroleum industry, linking fiscal benefits to cost efficiency.”
The report also credited Nigeria with using regulatory innovation to court investors beyond the extractive sector.
It pointed to the Federal Government ‘s technology-focused reforms, noting that Nigeria “has used regulatory frameworks to reduce uncertainty for innovative firms,” citing the Startup Act and accompanying central bank rules that let sandboxes allow start-ups to test products with real users before facing the full weight of regulation.
On trade infrastructure, the report named Nigeria as one of five countries — alongside Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Ghana and Togo — that committed under a regional agreement to harmonising customs and border procedures along the Abidjan–Lagos corridor, part of a wider West African push to cut transit times and integrate cross-border trade.
Africa as a whole, according to the report, saw FDI inflows fall sharply from an exceptional 2024, but the report noted that in West Africa, investment “rose in several West African economies, supported mainly by investment in natural resources and energy.”
Courtesy – The Punch





