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Nigeria’s Budget Threatened by Offshore Oil Output Flop

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Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.238m bpd in June – OPEC

Persistent weaknesses in offshore crude production which left output below the level on which the 2026 federal budget was set out, has brought Nigeria’s fiscal position under pressure despite a strong rally in international oil prices.

MoneyAfrica shed light on this in its newsletter on Monday, asserting that Nigeria produced an average of 1.505 million barrels per day of crude oil in July, which industry figures aver is marginally above her Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota of 1.50 million bpd for the third consecutive month.

However, July output was 4 percent lower than in June, reflecting technical disruptions at some offshore oil fields.

MoneyAfrica said while the performance signals an improvement from the severe production losses Nigeria experienced in previous years, it remains insufficient to meet the government’s revenue plans.

When condensates are included, total liquids production averaged 1.67 million bpd in July, well below the 1.84 million bpd benchmark used in the 2026 budget.

The volume gap has remained a central risk to public finances throughout the year, constraining the amount of oil available for export and limiting the government’s capacity to convert stronger global prices into a material revenue windfall.

Crude prices have, nonetheless, provided an important cushion. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have supported global oil markets, pushing Nigeria’s realised crude prices to around 29 percent above the budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.

“This suggests gross oil revenue during the first half of the year may have exceeded the budgeted level in nominal terms, even with production running below target.

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Yet the higher-price environment has primarily neutralised the effect of lower export volumes instead of creating meaningful additional fiscal headroom.

Nigeria is therefore still exposed to a reversal in global prices, while its production base remains vulnerable to operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints and delayed investment”, the newsletter read.

The challenge is reflected in the government’s reported $2.49 billion oil-revenue shortfall in the first half of 2026. That underperformance, MoneyAfrica, said, feeds directly into the fiscal deficit and could increase the government’s financing needs, placing further pressure on domestic borrowing costs and public debt metrics.

The administration has intensified efforts to attract investment into oil and gas, particularly deep-offshore projects that could help rebuild output over the medium term.

Measures include tax incentives intended to improve project economics, unlock capital and shorten the path to final investment decisions.

The government has set an ambition to raise production towards 3 million bpd, but the scale of capital expenditure, technical work and infrastructure improvements required means the target is unlikely to be achieved quickly.

MoneyAfrica said, “For now, Nigeria is producing enough crude to comply with its OPEC quota, but not enough to deliver the oil volumes embedded in its own budget. Until offshore operations are stabilised and new investment translates into sustained barrels, higher crude prices will offer only a temporary buffer rather than a durable solution to the country’s fiscal vulnerability”.

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Fake Certificates: FG, NYSC Unveil Digital Plan to Block Fraudsters

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The Federal Government and the National Youth Service Corps have intensified efforts to tackle certificate racketeering and strengthen the verification of academic qualifications through digital integration.

The Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa, disclosed this on Tuesday in Abuja when the NYSC Director-General, Brig Gen Olakunle Nafiu, led a delegation to the ministry.

Alausa said the initiative was part of the Federal Government’s ongoing digital transformation of the education sector under President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

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According to him, the reforms are designed to close loopholes in the management of academic records, combat certificate fraud and ensure that genuine graduates are not denied opportunities because of verification challenges.

The minister said the Nigerian Education Repository Data Bank was already collecting and verifying university certificates, tracking learners across the education system and supporting tertiary institutions through help-desk officers.

He added that the Nigerian Education Data Infrastructure would link records across different stages of a learner’s educational journey.

Alausa also revealed that discussions were ongoing with the NYSC on an application programming interface that would allow faster verification and seamless exchange of relevant data between the two institutions.

He said the system would help address issues affecting qualified graduates, including discrepancies in names, challenges involving graduates of part-time National Diploma programmes and the admission of National Certificate in Education holders into Higher National Diploma programmes.

The minister said the government would collaborate with the National Board for Technical Education, Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board, National Identity Management Commission and other stakeholders to develop lasting solutions.

Among the proposed measures is the introduction of a national Learner Identification Number and a uniform framework for recording and sequencing names across government education and identity databases.

Alausa said this would ensure that accurate identity records were established from the beginning of a learner’s educational journey, thereby reducing discrepancies that could create problems for graduates later.

The move comes amid increased government efforts to authenticate academic credentials used for employment and NYSC mobilisation.

On his part, the NYSC Director-General, Nafiu, commended the ministry’s digital reforms and pledged the Corps’ continued support.

He said NYSC had pursued digitalisation since 2014 and developed systems to provide reliable information on Corps members and their deployment.

Nafiu added that the Corps had complied with the Federal Executive Council’s directive on collaboration with the Nigerian Education Repository Data Bank and was ready to deepen its partnership with the ministry.

He further noted that the introduction of QR codes had “virtually eliminated document cloning” within the NYSC.

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Petrol Imports Surge 989% to N952bn Amid Dangote, Importers Feud

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Nigeria spent N952.15bn on imported Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, in the second quarter of 2026, representing a staggering 989.4 per cent increase from the N87.40bn recorded in the first quarter.

The latest figures contained in the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade report showed that petrol accounted for 6.60 per cent of Nigeria’s total imports of N14.42tn during the quarter, making it the country’s largest imported commodity.

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Despite the sharp quarterly increase, the value of petrol imports declined significantly year-on-year, falling from N2.83tn in the second quarter of 2025 to N952.15bn in Q2 2026, representing a 66.4 per cent reduction.

The surge in petrol imports came amid an ongoing dispute between the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and fuel importers and marketers over the continued importation of petrol despite rising domestic production.

The Dangote refinery had reportedly considered stopping petrol sales to major marketers that continue to import the product, citing concerns over the quality of imported petrol and the possibility of imported fuel being blended with its products.

Dangote also raised concerns over the lack of sufficient independent laboratory and quality-control infrastructure to verify the quality of imported petrol.

The refinery said imported petrol accounted for about 43 per cent of fuel supplied into the Nigerian market in July, adding that the issuance of import licences made it difficult to accurately plan production and inventory.

It said excess stock could eventually be exported if the situation continued.

However, fuel importers and marketers rejected the position, describing the move as an attempt to restrict imports. They challenged Dangote to provide evidence that imported petrol failed to meet Nigeria’s required quality standards.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that average daily petrol imports fell from 11.23 million litres in Q1 to 9.23 million litres in Q2, representing a 17.8 per cent decline.

However, imports increased sharply in June, reaching 18.1 million litres per day compared with 3.7 million litres per day in April.

At the same time, domestic petrol supply increased, with domestic refineries supplying 38.23 million litres per day in Q2, up from 34.57 million litres per day in Q1, representing a 10.6 per cent increase.

Consequently, the share of domestic refineries in Nigeria’s petrol supply rose from 75.5 per cent in Q1 to 80.5 per cent in Q2, while the import share dropped from 24.5 per cent to 19.5 per cent.

Industry data also indicated that imported petrol was more expensive than Dangote’s locally refined product.

According to the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, Dangote’s gantry price stood at N1,265 per litre, compared with an import-parity price of N1,310.64 per litre under the approved pricing benchmark.

This meant imported petrol was about N45.64 per litre more expensive.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria subsequently called on the Federal Government to halt petrol imports, arguing that import licences were resulting in higher prices and undermining domestic refineries.

Meanwhile, Nigeria exported N546.02bn worth of petrol in Q2 2026, up 20.67 per cent from N452.48bn in Q1.

Of the Q2 petrol exports, N416.78bn went to African markets, while N376.46bn was exported to West African countries.

Despite the increase in exports, Nigeria remained a net importer of petrol by value during the quarter, importing N952.15bn worth of the product against exports valued at N546.02bn—a difference of N406.12bn.

The higher import bill was also linked partly to international market conditions, as the period coincided with disruptions to global oil supplies and rising international fuel prices.

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Abuja Building Collapses Hours After FCTA Sealing

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A building has collapsed in Wuse Zone 4, Abuja, just hours after the Development Control Department of the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) sealed the structure and directed occupants to vacate the premises.

The building reportedly collapsed at about 8pm on Monday, September 7, 2026, prompting an emergency response as personnel of the Federal Fire Service and other responders moved to the scene.

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Three ambulances were stationed at the location as rescue teams worked to determine whether anyone was trapped beneath the rubble and to evacuate any possible casualties.

The FCTA’s Development Control Department had earlier sealed the building and ordered occupants to leave the premises before the collapse.

The cause of the collapse remained unclear as of the time of the report, while rescue operations were still ongoing.

The incident has renewed concerns over the safety of ageing and distressed buildings in Abuja, particularly structures that have previously been flagged by regulatory authorities.

Further details on possible casualties and the circumstances surrounding the collapse are expected as emergency operations continue.

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