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Nigeria’s economy largest in Africa as rebasing boosts GDP to $405bn

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ABUJA – In about three weeks from now, when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) it will show that Nigeria has overtaken South Africa as Africa’s largest economy, which will have great economic and geopolitical implications.

This is according to emerging markets focused investment banking firm Renaissance Capital, whose team of analysts were in Abuja, over the weekend.

“We are revising up our estimate of Nigeria’s GDP by 53 percent. The NBS has nearly completed its work, and our new estimate is that a 45 percent to 60 percent uplift is likely, and we are taking 53 percent as the mid-point figure. We expect the data in January,” said Renaissance Capital analysts led by Charles Robertson, its global chief economist and head of macro strategy, in a research report released yesterday (Dec 18).

“This means Nigeria, at $405 bn in 2013 would be the largest economy in Africa, ahead of South Africa at around $370 bn.”

Other impacts of the rebasing include the possible reduction of growth rates to 5 – 6 percent from 6 – 7 percent, and an increase in GDP per capita to $2,400 from around $1,700, in essence moving Nigeria into middle income economy territory.

Nigeria’s economy largest in Africa as rebasing boosts GDP to $405bn“Sectors that may show the biggest upward revision range from Nollywood to IT and telecoms, while we think agriculture will shrink from around 40 percent of GDP to 25 – 30 percent of GDP,” said Robertson.

The rebasing will show public debt shrinking to 13 percent of GDP from 20 percent of GDP. Public external debt would be below 2 percent of GDP, while the current account surplus may still be 5 percent of GDP which will leave the sovereign in a good position to borrow if needed.

According to Rencap “In a Fed tapering world, these revisions make Nigeria look good, but credit rating upgrades (Ba3/BB-) are likely to be constrained by the most competitive presidential elections Nigeria will have seen since democracy returned in the 1990s.”

The NBS is seeking to change the calculations of Nigeria’s GDP, using a new base year of 2010 to give a better indication of the size and composition of its economy.

Most governments overhaul GDP calculations every few years to reflect changes in output and consumption, such as telecoms, financial services and internet usage, but Nigeria has not done so since 1990 (about 23 years) suggesting that the previous GDP framework underestimated economic activity.

The numbers will have new implications for investors and the geopolitics of Nigeria’s place in Africa.

“We would be very surprised if recent and pending investment decisions are taken on the basis of the 1990 national accounts,” said FBN capital research analysts led by Gregory Kronsten, in a note released in August.

“The new GDP series will however be tracked by potential investors, such as suppliers of consumer goods and services,” Kronsten said.

Nigeria already hosts the second largest debt and stock markets in Africa, behind South Africa.

Its stock market is valued at $77 billion, while the secondary market bond trading volumes, ”certainly exceed those of Egypt and Morocco and represent around 20 percent of South Africa’s turnover,” according to Samir Gadio, an emerging markets strategist, at Standard Bank, in London.

Overall – Nigeria’s debt, budget and current account ratios will look among the best in Africa and in the emerging markets (EM), once the rebased figures are released, notes Robertson.

“We like Nigeria in the coming quarter – though we see domestic bond yields up a little, at around 13.5 percent on average. Nigeria is going to rise from 14 percent of MSCI frontier markets to around 20 percent in May 2014 which could attract equity investors wanting exposure to frontiers and/or Africa. We expect the NGN to remain at 160/$ until June 2014. But we are still nervous for the second half of 2014,” Robertson said.

– BUSINESS DAY

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NGX Poised for Dollar Denominated DPRP IPO, Pioneer African Exchanges Linkage Project

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) is set for the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP), which would have three billion ordinary shares on offer at $0.35 ​per share.

Chairman of the (NGX Group), Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, spoke of the IPO at the weekend during a visit to the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange (ADX), United Arab Emirates (UAE), adding that investor demand already exceeded $2 ​billion.

During a meeting with ADX’s board and management, Dr. Kwairanga said: “In Nigeria, we are also preparing for Dangote Refinery IPO which is seen as a continental project. Hopefully, the refinery, which is one of the biggest refineries in the world, will consider a dual listing in a global financial centre and we hope to have the active participation of Middle East investors with roadshows likely in the UAE.”

Quoting sources and a placement document, Reuters on Friday reported that the refinery is offering 3 billion ordinary shares at $0.35 ​per share, with investor demand already exceeding $2 ​billion.

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According to the report, investors must subscribe to a ⁠minimum of one million shares ($350,000), with additional ​purchases in multiples of 500,000 shares, adding that shares ​will be subject to a 365-day lock-up period.

Proceeds will be used for expansion and general corporate purposes as ​the refinery ramps up operations and strengthens ​its market position, the document showed.

During the meeting with the executives of the UAE-based exchange at the weekend, Kwairanga solicited collaborative efforts between the NGX and ADX, noting that both markets could explore knowledge sharing and training programmes.

He expressed delight that despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Abu Dhabi Exchange and the UAE in general are working and peaceful and still a global destination of choice for business.

This, he observed, was a clear demonstration of the solid foundation laid by the founding fathers and the resilience, determination and focus of current leaders, adding that he had no doubt that the UAE will emerge stronger from present issues.

He said the NGX, which he chairs, and the Nigerian capital market have witnessed dramatic improvement in performance and operations over the last couple of years.

“Our index and market capitalisation has more than doubled in the last couple of years and we have been attracting renewed interest from investors from all parts of the globe, including the Middle East.

“I recall that our President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is Nigeria’s leader and chief marketer was in Abu Dhabi earlier this year to inform investors about ongoing economic reforms in Nigeria and why it is a very attractive destination for business,” Kwairanga said in a statement which he made personally signed.

The NGX Chairman said the exchange is also at the forefront of the African Exchanges Linkage Project, which will seamlessly link stock exchanges in several African countries for intra African trading and broaden the continent’s capital markets significantly.

“I believe during this visit, we will discuss areas for collaboration between our two exchanges in areas such as exchange of knowledge and training programmes, especially product development, cross border listings, openings in Nigeria for UAE quoted companies that may wish to expand. One product/platform that I believe we can work on is Tabadul.

“In Nigeria, we are also preparing for Dangote Refinery IPO which is seen as a continental project. Hopefully, the refinery, which is one of the biggest refineries in the world, will consider a dual listing in a global financial centre and we hope to have the active participation of Middle East investors with roadshows likely in the UAE,” he said.

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Ekpo Urges Entrepreneurs to Harness Nigeria’s Gas Resources for Economic Growth, General Wellbeing

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, has urged investors to unlock Nigeria’s vast natural gas resources to drive industrialisation, economic growth, job creation, and improved living standards for all Nigerians.

Ekpo made this appeal when he delivered a keynote address at the Association of Local Distributors of Gas (ALDG) Business Forum 2026 held in Abuja, where he spoke on the theme, ‘From Gas Abundance to Gas Access: Reassessing Nigeria’s Gas Distribution Imperatives’.

The minister who was represented by the Director of Midstream and Downstream at the ministry, Mrs. Ikenma Irene, told stakeholders that while Nigeria possessed over 209 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves—making it one of the most gas-endowed nations globally—the country’s true challenge was actually on how to ensure widespread access and utilisation of this strategic resource.

“Nigeria’s development will not be measured by the volume of gas beneath our soil, but by the extent to which that gas powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, and fuels sustainable economic growth,” the minister stated.

The minister commended ALDG for providing a strategic platform for collaboration and dialogue among key stakeholders, noting that the Forum intervened at a critical period in Nigeria’s energy transition journey.

He highlighted the federal government’s continued commitment under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu to deepen domestic gas utilisation through the Decade of Gas initiative and other transformative reforms designed to position Nigeria as a gas-powered economy.

The minister further noted that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 has strengthened the legal and regulatory framework necessary to attract investment, encourage private sector participation, expand infrastructure, and promote market efficiency throughout the gas sector.

ALSO READ: NNPC Ltd Uncovers Pipeline Vandals, Disguising as FG Taskforce

According to the minister, industrialised nations achieved economic advancement not merely because of resource endowment but because they built systems that enabled reliable energy access, industrial utilisation, and efficient markets.

He said, “Nigeria must now move decisively from gas abundance to gas accessibility.

“The success of this vision requires policy consistency, strong institutions, strategic investments, infrastructure expansion, security collaboration, and sustainable stakeholder partnerships.”

He urged stakeholders participating in the Forum to focus on developing practical, investment-driven solutions that expand gas access and deliver measurable benefits to Nigerians.

“As we deliberate today, let us remain focused on building a gas sector that delivers real value to Nigerians — one that powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, enhances energy security, and drives inclusive national development,” the minister stated.

“Let us move from gas abundance to gas access. Let us move from policy to implementation. Let us build a gas economy that works for all Nigerians,” he added.

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LPG Exports Ban Still in Force – FG

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GAS: New Temile/Hyundai LPG Vessel to bring down high cost of cooking gas in Nigeria-NCDMB

The ban on exportation of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is still in force despite rising prices and supply concerns across Nigeria.

An official with the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources made the clarification amid soaring prices and claims that locally produced cooking gas is being exported in foreign currency at the expense of domestic consumers.

Speculations had mounted amongst cooking gas retailers that some locally produced LPG was being sold to West African buyers because it was more profitable than supplying the domestic market.

The Chairman of the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Retailers Association, Ayobami Olarinoye, had told The PUNCH that the persistent scarcity and high prices of cooking gas were being worsened by limited product availability and alleged exports by a local refinery.

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Speaking exclusively with The PUNCH, the spokesman for the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Louis Ibah, dismissed the claim, saying the Federal Government’s restriction on LPG exports remains in place and is being enforced by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

“The ban on exports of LPG announced by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Dr Ekperikpe Ekpo, is still in place to stabilise prices and is strictly enforced by the NMDPRA,” Ibah told The PUNCH on Thursday.

Ibah emphasised that none of the local producers is allowed to export cooking gas, saying all resources are focused on making the product available for Nigerians. “It’s important to note that none of our producers are currently exporting the LPG meant for cooking in Nigeria, so all resources are focused on meeting our local needs,” he said.

The government’s position comes as concerns mount over soaring cooking gas prices and supply shortages across several parts of the country. Retailers and consumers have reported difficulties accessing supplies, while prices have continued to rise.
Describing the situation, Olarinoye said access to products had become increasingly difficult in recent weeks. “Getting the product has been excruciatingly difficult, and it is not readily available. Out of every 10 plants, only one or two would have products to sell to our members. Many of them, especially those situated in relatively residential areas, prefer to sell directly to end-users, while a few are still selling to retailers,” he stated.

He warned that prices were unlikely to decline in the immediate term unless there was an intervention. “The high price may remain the way it is until the situation changes positively,” the LPGAR boss noted.

Olarinoye called on the Federal Government to create incentives that would encourage more investors to enter the LPG market and boost local supply.

A source at the NMDPRA said the regulator was working with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other stakeholders to improve product availability. “The regulator is collaborating with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other key stakeholders to further boost LPG availability in the local market,” the source said.

It was also learnt that a new Seplat gas facility is expected to begin LPG supply to the domestic market by July. “This means we can expect a significant improvement in supply,” the source added.

The concerns come as the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, called for stronger efforts to improve domestic gas distribution and utilisation across the country.

Speaking at the Association of Local Distributors of Gas Business Forum 2026 in Abuja, Ekpo said Nigeria’s vast gas reserves would remain economically insignificant unless they are translated into accessible energy for households, industries and businesses.
Represented by the Director, Midstream and Downstream, Mrs Ikenma Irene, the minister delivered a keynote address titled, ‘From Gas Abundance to Gas Access: Reassessing Nigeria’s Gas Distribution Imperatives’.

He noted that Nigeria holds more than 209 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves but said the country’s development would depend on how effectively those resources are utilised.

“Nigeria’s development will not be measured by the volume of gas beneath our soil but by the extent to which that gas powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, and fuels sustainable economic growth,” the minister stated.

According to him, infrastructure gaps, weak distribution networks and limited market penetration remain major obstacles to increased domestic gas utilisation.

Ekpo reiterated the Federal Government’s commitment under President Bola Tinubu to accelerate domestic gas development through the Decade of Gas initiative and highlighted reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 aimed at improving investor confidence and encouraging private sector participation.

“Nigeria must now move decisively from gas abundance to gas accessibility. The success of this vision requires policy consistency, strong institutions, strategic investments, infrastructure expansion, security collaboration, and sustainable stakeholder partnerships,” he said.

He urged operators to focus on practical solutions that would expand infrastructure and distribution networks while ensuring affordable and reliable access to gas.
“Let us remain focused on building a gas sector that delivers real value to Nigerians—one that powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, enhances energy security, and drives inclusive national development,” he stated.

The minister concluded with a call for the implementation of gas sector reforms. “Let us move from gas abundance to gas access. Let us move from policy to implementation. Let us build a gas economy that works for all Nigerians,” he added.

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