Business
Nigeria’s economy largest in Africa as rebasing boosts GDP to $405bn
ABUJA – In about three weeks from now, when the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) it will show that Nigeria has overtaken South Africa as Africa’s largest economy, which will have great economic and geopolitical implications.
This is according to emerging markets focused investment banking firm Renaissance Capital, whose team of analysts were in Abuja, over the weekend.
“We are revising up our estimate of Nigeria’s GDP by 53 percent. The NBS has nearly completed its work, and our new estimate is that a 45 percent to 60 percent uplift is likely, and we are taking 53 percent as the mid-point figure. We expect the data in January,” said Renaissance Capital analysts led by Charles Robertson, its global chief economist and head of macro strategy, in a research report released yesterday (Dec 18).
“This means Nigeria, at $405 bn in 2013 would be the largest economy in Africa, ahead of South Africa at around $370 bn.”
Other impacts of the rebasing include the possible reduction of growth rates to 5 – 6 percent from 6 – 7 percent, and an increase in GDP per capita to $2,400 from around $1,700, in essence moving Nigeria into middle income economy territory.
“Sectors that may show the biggest upward revision range from Nollywood to IT and telecoms, while we think agriculture will shrink from around 40 percent of GDP to 25 – 30 percent of GDP,” said Robertson.
The rebasing will show public debt shrinking to 13 percent of GDP from 20 percent of GDP. Public external debt would be below 2 percent of GDP, while the current account surplus may still be 5 percent of GDP which will leave the sovereign in a good position to borrow if needed.
According to Rencap “In a Fed tapering world, these revisions make Nigeria look good, but credit rating upgrades (Ba3/BB-) are likely to be constrained by the most competitive presidential elections Nigeria will have seen since democracy returned in the 1990s.”
The NBS is seeking to change the calculations of Nigeria’s GDP, using a new base year of 2010 to give a better indication of the size and composition of its economy.
Most governments overhaul GDP calculations every few years to reflect changes in output and consumption, such as telecoms, financial services and internet usage, but Nigeria has not done so since 1990 (about 23 years) suggesting that the previous GDP framework underestimated economic activity.
The numbers will have new implications for investors and the geopolitics of Nigeria’s place in Africa.
“We would be very surprised if recent and pending investment decisions are taken on the basis of the 1990 national accounts,” said FBN capital research analysts led by Gregory Kronsten, in a note released in August.
“The new GDP series will however be tracked by potential investors, such as suppliers of consumer goods and services,” Kronsten said.
Nigeria already hosts the second largest debt and stock markets in Africa, behind South Africa.
Its stock market is valued at $77 billion, while the secondary market bond trading volumes, ”certainly exceed those of Egypt and Morocco and represent around 20 percent of South Africa’s turnover,” according to Samir Gadio, an emerging markets strategist, at Standard Bank, in London.
Overall – Nigeria’s debt, budget and current account ratios will look among the best in Africa and in the emerging markets (EM), once the rebased figures are released, notes Robertson.
“We like Nigeria in the coming quarter – though we see domestic bond yields up a little, at around 13.5 percent on average. Nigeria is going to rise from 14 percent of MSCI frontier markets to around 20 percent in May 2014 which could attract equity investors wanting exposure to frontiers and/or Africa. We expect the NGN to remain at 160/$ until June 2014. But we are still nervous for the second half of 2014,” Robertson said.
– BUSINESS DAY
A call has gone to the political leadership across the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for the institution of a regional pricing benchmark for oil and gas to address rising concerns of uneven pricing.
Making the call on Wednesday in Abuja, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Rabiu Umar, noted that a standard pricing formula across the region would promote cross-border trade and attract investment into the downstream petroleum sector.
He expressed concern that Africa still relies on international markets to determine the prices of petroleum products produced within the continent despite its abundant resources.
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He used the media briefing to disclose that Nigeria, in partnership with S&P Global Commodity Insights and the West Africa Regulators Forum (WARF), would organise the second West Africa Refined Fuel Conference from 11 to 12 August in Abuja.
The theme of the conference is: “Funding West Africa Infrastructure & Distribution to Create a Transparent Market for Regional Price Benchmarks.”
According to him, the event is aimed at developing a formidable regional marketplace where petroleum products can be traded competitively.
He said: “The vision is to establish West Africa as a credible regional marketplace where petroleum products can be traded efficiently, transparently and competitively.
“By strengthening infrastructure, harmonising regulations and improving market data, the region can enhance price discovery, facilitate cross-border trade and attract greater investment.”
Umar said progress had been recorded since the maiden edition of the conference in 2025, including the establishment of the West Africa Regulators Forum, the publication of West African reference prices, and the opening of S&P Global Commodity Insights’ regional office in Abuja.
He said the 2026 edition would focus on infrastructure financing, regional cooperation, market transparency, logistics development, and expanding refining capacity to improve energy security and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.
He identified pipelines, storage facilities, marine terminals, ports, rail infrastructure, digital commodity exchanges, trading platforms, strategic petroleum reserves, LNG infrastructure, and logistics corridors as critical investments needed to create an integrated regional energy market.
Umar stressed that regulators have a key role to play in ensuring fair competition, investor confidence, consumer protection, and regional cooperation through harmonised standards and regulations.
He cited the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub in Europe as an example of a benchmark that considers supply, demand, transportation, and logistics costs.
He said: “The more we are able to produce, the more relevant it becomes to have our own reference pricing.”
In line with its corporate vision, Summit Bank has reinforced its commitment to opportunities and business expansion, entrepreneurship, and Nigeria’s growing digital economy through its support of the newly-commissioned Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market in Kano. Established as a landmark commercial initiative, the digital market will enhance ecommerce and economic opportunities for the African market. It is projected to create more than 100,000 jobs and generate an estimated N50bn annually in economic activity.
Summit Bank joined government officials, industry leaders, and initiative stakeholders on Saturday for the official commissioning of the market. Among the dignitaries were Barr. Abdulkarim Kabiru Maude, Kano State Commissioner of Justice; Yusuf Ata, Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development, represented by his Special Assistant (Technical), Kabir Aminu Dutse; Ahmed Idris, former Accountant General of the Federation; Dr. Mansur Muhtah, Chairman of Bank of Industry; and Alhaji Jamilu Abdussalam, CEO, Hajjaj Real Estate.
In his remarks, Dr. Sirajo Salisu, Summit Bank’s MD/CEO, reaffirmed the bank’s belief that access to ethical finance and a thriving commercial ecosystem remain key drivers of sustainable economic growth.
Developed under a public-private partnership (PPP) involving Kano State Government, Hajjaj ZOEC Real Estate, and ZOEC Construction, with Summit Bank as a proud sponsor, the digital market was inaugurated in Tudun Wada, Sabon Gari, Kano. As a transformative project, the bank’s support reflects a commitment to supporting businesses, deepening financial inclusion, and building a more connected digital economy. “We believe this market is not only an opportunity for Kano State or Northern Nigeria but for the entire African continent. Instead of travelling all the way to China to purchase goods in bulk, traders will be able to come to Kano and place their orders here,” Alhaji Abdussalam said, during his remarks.
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While speaking during the ceremony, Dr. Salisu said the significance of the digital market goes beyond its physical infrastructure. “Markets have always been at the centre of enterprise. What the Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market represents is the next stage of evolution that blends physical and digital commerce into a modern ecosystem where businesses can grow, technology can thrive, and entrepreneurs can unlock new opportunities,” he said.
Dr. Salisu said supporting enterprise is a core purpose of Summit Bank as a non-interest financial institution. “We believe banking should do more than provide financial services; it should help create the conditions that allow businesses to flourish,” adding that when entrepreneurs have access to the right ecosystem, markets become stronger, jobs are created, families earn better livelihoods, and communities prosper. He said this is the kind of impact that Summit Bank supports.
Hajaj-Zoec Digital Market is designed as the largest, purpose-built modern business hub for electronic dealers, tech entrepreneurs, wholesalers, retailers, and investors across Nigeria and West Africa. It will provide more than 1500 trading spaces, according to Abdussalam, with state-of-the-art amenities and digital infrastructure. This development strengthens Kano’s longstanding position as a frontline commercial center in Nigeria, and a hub other region can feed into.
For Summit Bank, the development aligns closely with its broader mission of supporting productive enterprise through ethical, transparent and customer-focused banking solutions. The Bank believes that sustainable economic development is built not only through access to finance but also through meaningful partnerships that drive business growth.
The commissioning also reflects Summit Bank’s growing engagement with Nigeria’s SME sector. Through initiatives such as its recent Market Storm activations across key commercial centers in Kano, Kaduna and Abuja, the Bank has continued to deepen relationships with traders, entrepreneurs and small business owners, taking financial education and banking solutions directly to the communities where commerce happens every day.
Summit Bank said it remains committed to supporting initiatives that advance entrepreneurship, expand financial inclusion and strengthen Nigeria’s digital economy, while helping businesses build lasting value for themselves, their customers and their communities.
As an innovative non-interest financial institution, the bank continues to champion a banking model rooted in ethics, transparency, partnership, shared prosperity and responsible growth, connecting finance with real economic activity and contributes meaningfully to national development.
The Dangote Cement Plc grew cement and clinker exports from Nigeria by 62.3% to 1.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, reinforcing the country’s position as a regional manufacturing and export hub while also reporting a 22.7% rise in profit after tax to ₦638.5 billion.
The company said it dispatched 20 clinker ships from Nigeria to Ghana, Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire during the period, reflecting rising demand for its products across West Africa and the growing contribution of exports to its pan-African growth strategy.
The unaudited results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 also showed that Group revenue increased by 21.4% to ₦2.514 trillion, while Group EBITDA rose by 25.8% to ₦1.188 trillion, reflecting a margin of 47.3%. Earnings per share advanced by 24.3% to ₦38.22, as the company closed the period with a strong net cash position of ₦215.2 billion.
Overall Group volumes grew by 11.8% to 14.9 million tonnes, supported by resilient demand in key markets. Nigeria continued to anchor earnings, with EBITDA from the domestic market rising by 28.4% to ₦1.086 trillion and margins improving to 60.1%.
Operational efficiency remained a key focus, with the company reporting a strong reduction in Nigeria cash costs, supported by a more favourable energy mix. It also commissioned the Okpella mobile refuelling unit and added 300 compressed natural gas trucks in Tanzania as part of efforts to improve logistics efficiency and reduce operating costs.
Commenting on the results, Chief Executive Officer, Arvind Pathak, said the first-half performance reflected the strong momentum the company had built since the start of the year, supported by disciplined execution, higher sales volumes and sustained demand across key markets.
“Our performance in the first half of 2026 reflects the strong momentum we have continued to build since the start of the year. The business delivered another solid set of results, supported by higher sales volumes, disciplined execution, and sustained demand across our key markets,” Pathak said.
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He noted that revenue growth, stronger EBITDA and the ₦215.2 billion net cash balance underscored the resilience of Dangote Cement’s business model and its capacity to invest in future growth while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.
Pathak said the company’s export strategy continued to deliver encouraging results, adding that the growth in shipments to regional markets reflected rising demand for its products across West Africa.
On expansion, he said construction and commissioning activities at the company’s new 6Mta Itori plant were at an advanced stage, with completion expected before the end of the year. The plant is expected to strengthen Dangote Cement’s production footprint, expand export capacity and support its long-term ambition of reaching 80Mta in
installed production capacity by 2030.
“Looking ahead, market fundamentals remain favourable and our strategic investments continue to strengthen the business. Combined with our unwavering focus on operational excellence and cost discipline, these factors position us well to sustain our growth trajectory and continue creating lasting value for our shareholders,” he added.
The Dangote Cement is Africa’s leading cement producer, with 55.0Mta capacity across the continent. The company operates a fully integrated quarry-to-customer model and has 35.25Mta production capacity in Nigeria, including plants in Obajana, Ibese, Gboko and Okpella.
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