Business
Nigeria’s ‘rented foreign reserves’ increase risk perception
ABUJA – The continued reduction in the accretion to Nigeria’s foreign reserves, currently at $41.5 billion, and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) accounting for about $20 billion of this amount raises the risk perception about Nigeria’s economy, BusinessDay interaction with economy watchers has revealed.
“The over $20.0 billion of the total foreign reserves being inflow from FPIs calls for concern, in view of the gradual phase-out of the US Fed stimulus programme in 2014,” say Afrinvest analysts. “Based on this development, it becomes imminent that the ‘rented reserves’ may depart the country sooner than we anticipate.”
Consequently, any portfolio reversal as a result of the United States quantitative easing will leave the country with no option than to borrow, with the resultant effect of higher yields on the Federal Government bonds and, consequently, increase in the level of recurrent expenditure.
For instance, government interest on domestic debt has been on the increase, from N495.1 billion in 2011 to N559.5 billion in 2012, to N591.8 billion in 2013 with N712 billion projected for 2014, in addition to the N300 billion CBN interest on T-Bills and Open Market Operations (OMO).
Some other analysts argue that the sustenance of foreign reserves on portfolio investments or ‘hot money’ portends more vulnerability of the economy to the whims and caprices of investors who may take advantage of the opportunities provided by the easing in the US market to embark on reversals.
Doyin Salami, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN, said at a recent meeting of the committee that he sees the deterioration in foreign reserve position as a reflection of a slowdown in inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPI), adding that “FPI inflows, at $19.182 billion in 2013, accounted for approximately 82 percent of capital importation in 2013”.
Afrinvest analysts further say that if this happens, and coupled with the reduction in the accretion of the foreign reserves, then the risk perception about Nigeria would rise drastically.
“In addition, the reserves ($21.5 billion, assuming it remains at present level) may cover below three months of imports (below global requirement). This would also increase the country risk premium placed on Nigeria, hence an increase in the yields on FGN bonds,” say Afrinvest analysts.
“This increase will raise the cost of borrowing to the government, further snowballing its re-current expenditure (over 65.0 percent in 2014). The country may also find it challenging to raise additional funds through Eurobonds and may be lured to raise the coupon to what is commensurate with perceived risks,” they add.
Samir Gadio, emerging markets analyst at Standard Bank, London, observed that the accumulation of FX reserves in 2012 and early 2013 was a function of increased portfolio inflows which subsequently dried up and even turned negative recently.
Gadio wondered why Nigeria has been unable to rebuild its fiscal buffers despite the robust oil price over the past few years, which appears to reflect a moderate drop in oil output, stressing that possible revenue leakages and prior to this, the fuel subsidy scam, could be responsible.
“On top of the regular budget augmentation disbursements, the ECA funds have also been shared among the three tiers of government to fund ‘people-oriented projects’, but there is little tangible investment to account for,” said Gadio.
Gadio sees this as a serious problem as, according to him, the balance of the ECA declined to a low of USD2.5 billion in January, which is less than 1 percent of GDP (vs a median of 65 percent of GDP among major oil producing countries).
“Should this trend persist,” he added, “Nigeria will remain vulnerable to long-run oil boom and bust cycles, and a potential prolonged decline in the oil price below the USD100 pbl level at some stage in the future would seriously threaten the country’s macroeconomic position.”
Uche Chibuike, a member of the MPC, at the recent committee meeting, observed that recent international developments had already ensured a slowdown in the inflow of such speculative capital.
“Despite this, I find it prudent to continue to express my concern about speculative capital. This is because the vulnerability of the value of our currency in recent times has at least in part been as a consequence of the unstable nature of such speculative FDI. The earlier we begin to discourage such capital flows, the better. While FDI is desirable, it only makes sense when it is invested in the real sectors of our economy,” he said.
Ganiu Garba, also a member of the MPC, at the recent meeting attributed the problem to a non-forward-looking and non-strategic management of oil and gas resources with the consequent inability to sustain inflows of forex revenue to support and sustain some of the economic buffers.
“A strategic and forward-looking management of oil and gas resources is critical to building the forex reserves required to support a stable currency,” Garba said.
– BUSINESS DAY
Business
Ingentia Energies Focused on Exponential Growth
Ingentia Energies Limited has said it is targeting an expansion of its drilling operations after increasing its oil production by 150 per cent under the leadership of Engr Charles Odita as the company’s acting Chief Executive Officer.
This was disclosed in a statement signed by the Chairman of the Board, Chief Oseni Elamah, following a meeting in Lagos attended by Agbaroji and the outgoing CEO, Odita, after Victor Agbaroji assumed office as the company’s new Managing Director and CEO.
The board commended Odita for what it described as transformational leadership, noting that “production increased by 150 per cent during his tenure, from 2,200 barrels per day”.
Elamah extended congratulations and appreciation to Odita, describing his tenure as transformational and characterised by strategic clarity, decisive execution and exceptional leadership.
Agbaroji, who succeeded Odita, expressed appreciation for the achievements recorded under his predecessor and pledged to build on the foundation already established.
He identified enhancing drilling operations, maximising the value of existing assets, improving cost competitiveness, expanding the company’s portfolio and unlocking greater value from its gas resources as key priorities for the next phase of growth.
“Our immediate focus is to strengthen the next phase of our drilling campaign by leveraging the seismic acquisition programme currently underway.
This will enable us to execute a more robust and efficient drilling programme while improving exploration outcomes and operational performance,” Agbaroji said.
He also stressed the importance of crude oil evacuation infrastructure to future production growth, saying the company would intensify efforts to advance its pipeline evacuation project.
Agbaroji reaffirmed management’s commitment to sustaining the momentum achieved under Odita, adding that the company would continue to benefit from the experience and institutional knowledge developed during his tenure.
The leadership transition is expected to consolidate Ingentia’s recent gains, expand production capacity, improve operational efficiency and strengthen its position as an indigenous energy company.
Business
Dangote IPO Will Spread Wealth Across Nigeria – Emir Sanusi
A prominent royal father has mounted a spirited defence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (DPRP), dismissing criticisms of the Initial Public Offering (IPO) and challenging detractors to replicate its scale by raising the estimated $22 billion required to build a competing refinery.
The Emir of Kano, His Royal Highness Khalifa Muhammadu Sanusi II, on Thursday made the remarks during the DPRP’s “People’s IPO” roadshow in Kano, where he passionately advocated broader Nigerian participation in the IPO as a pathway to wealth creation and economic inclusion.
Addressing a gathering of investors, business leaders, professionals and members of the public, the former Central Bank Governor described the refinery as one of the most significant industrial projects in Africa’s history and urged Kano residents to seize the opportunity to become shareholders.
According to the Emir, equity ownership represents one of the most effective means through which ordinary citizens can participate directly in national economic growth and build long-term financial security.
“Kano is a commercial city with a long tradition of trade, investment and entrepreneurship. Our people understand business, and they should understand the value of owning shares in productive enterprises,” he said.
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Drawing from personal experience, Sanusi recounted his interactions with Aliko Dangote during his banking career in the late 1990s when Dangote Group was evolving from a trading company into a manufacturing powerhouse.
The Emir revealed that many observers at the time questioned Dangote’s strategy of deploying short-term financing to support long-term industrial investments. However, he noted that what critics considered risky was actually a demonstration of strategic foresight and a deep commitment to transforming Nigeria’s productive capacity.
Recalling the philosophy that drove the company’s industrial expansion, the monarch said the vision was anchored on a simple principle: producing domestically what Nigerians consume daily instead of relying excessively on imports.
“Somebody needs to produce the petrol for your cars, somebody needs to produce the cement for your houses, somebody needs to produce the food that you eat. We are importing these things from Asia, Europe and America. Our strategy is to produce those things here,” he stated.
The Emir described the Dangote Refinery as a game-changing investment that could fundamentally alter the structure of the Nigerian economy by reducing dependence on imported petroleum products and preserving foreign exchange.
Drawing on his experience at the nation’s apex bank, Sanusi explained that Nigeria had historically earned foreign exchange through crude oil exports only to expend a substantial portion of it importing refined fuel.
“What Aliko has done is disrupt that model,” he said.
According to him, the emergence of a world-class refinery on Nigerian soil positions the country not merely as an exporter of crude oil but as a major supplier of refined petroleum products to regional and international markets.
As evidence of the refinery’s growing global relevance, he cited reports that European airlines had sourced aviation fuel from the facility during recent supply disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring its ability to compete effectively on the global stage.
Sanusi also addressed concerns raised by critics who have accused the refinery of seeking market dominance. The monarch firmly rejected such claims, arguing that competition remains open to anyone willing to undertake the financial and operational challenges associated with large-scale refining.
“There is no monopoly if a monopoly is not protected by law,” he declared.
“Anybody who wants to build a refinery, anybody who wants to raise $22 billion, invest and go through what Aliko went through is welcome to do so.”
The comment drew applause from participants at the roadshow, many of whom viewed the statement as a direct response to persistent criticism of the refinery’s market influence.
The Emir stressed that Nigeria’s economic future depends on encouraging more investments in productive industries capable of creating jobs, generating exports and strengthening local value chains. He warned against a culture that prioritises speculation and the accumulation of overseas assets at the expense of domestic industrial development.
He therefore described the Dangote Refinery IPO as a historic opportunity for millions of Nigerians to own a stake in one of Africa’s most strategic industrial assets.
“It is the shareholders who own it. It is the shareholders who take the returns. It is the shareholders who own the profits,” he said.
While encouraging broad participation, the respected traditional ruler advised prospective investors to approach the market responsibly. He urged citizens to invest only funds they could afford to commit for the long term and not resources earmarked for essential family needs.
In his closing remarks, Sanusi called on Kano residents and Nigerians generally to embrace the capital market and take advantage of the IPO, arguing that widespread ownership would democratise wealth generation and deepen public participation in national economic development.
He said broader participation in the Dangote Refinery IPO would not only reward investors financially but also strengthen local ownership of critical national infrastructure, expand financial inclusion and ensure that the benefits of industrialisation are shared more widely across the country.
“The opportunity is here. The question is whether you will participate,” the Emir told the audience.
The DPRP IPO roadshow, tagged “Kano Grand Homecoming,” brought together leading figures from Nigeria’s business, investment and financial sectors, including Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Industries Limited; Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company; Adetilewa Adebajo, CEO of CFG Advisory; and other capital market stakeholders.
Photo Caption – From Left: Emir of Kano, His Highness, Muhammadu Sanusi II (Special Guest of Honour & Chairman); President/CE, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO Roadshow tagged “Kano Grand Homecoming” in Kano on Thursday, September 17, 2026.
Business
How Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Rose to $54.61bn in 2026
Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves have risen to $54.61 billion in 2026, representing a $12.76 billion increase from the $41.84 billion recorded a year earlier.
The latest figure, recorded as of September, represents a 30.5 per cent year-on-year increase and continues a steady accumulation of Nigeria’s external reserves that became more pronounced from the middle of the year.
But how did Nigeria build up such a substantial reserve position within months?
Available data and analysis point to a combination of stronger oil-sector earnings, increased foreign capital inflows, diaspora remittances, non-oil export proceeds and changes in foreign exchange and monetary management.
Oil production and earnings
One of the factors supporting the improvement has been stronger crude oil production.
SEE ALSO: Nigeria Beats 2026 Foreign Reserves Target, Hits $53.1b
Analysis of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data by Nairametrics showed that reserves stood at $49.80 billion on June 1 before crossing the $50 billion mark on June 4. By July 3, the balance had risen to $51.53 billion and subsequently moved above $52 billion in August.
Earlier CBN data analysis also showed that crude oil and condensate production averaged about 1.68 million barrels per day in April, 1.73 million barrels per day in May and 1.72 million barrels per day in June, before standing at about 1.68 million barrels per day in July.
The stronger production has coincided with higher oil-sector revenues. Nairametrics reported that NNPC revenue rose from N2.57 trillion in January to N2.68 trillion in February and N2.77 trillion in March, before jumping to N4.97 trillion in April. It subsequently stood at N4.34 trillion in May, N4.39 trillion in June and N3.09 trillion in July.
Aminu Gwambe, President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria, also attributed part of the reserve improvement to higher crude oil prices and increased production.
According to Gwambe, reduced volatility in the Niger Delta and lower crude oil theft have helped improve production and, consequently, foreign exchange receipts.
Foreign capital inflows surge
Another major development has been the increase in foreign capital entering Nigeria.
Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in foreign capital in the first quarter of 2026, representing an 83.8 per cent increase from the $5.64 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, according to National Bureau of Statistics data.
Portfolio investment accounted for the overwhelming majority of the inflows, reaching $9.86 billion, or 95.09 per cent of total capital imported during the quarter.
The banking sector attracted $7.55 billion, representing 72.79 per cent of total capital imported, while the financing sector received $2.43 billion.
The United Kingdom was the largest source of the foreign capital, contributing $5.08 billion, followed by the United States with $3.18 billion and South Africa with $983.83 million.
The increase in portfolio inflows has been linked by analysts to improved conditions in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market and the attractiveness of Nigerian financial assets and yields.
However, the composition of the inflows is significant because portfolio investments can be more easily reversed than longer-term foreign direct investment.
Remittances and non-oil exports
The reserve buildup has also been linked to stronger diaspora remittances passing through official channels.
Gwambe pointed to increased remittance flows following Nigeria’s foreign exchange reforms, as well as growing dollar liquidity through licensed fintech channels.
Higher non-oil export proceeds have also contributed to the country’s foreign exchange earnings, while improvements in fiscal and monetary management have supported the broader accumulation.
These sources are important because they provide foreign exchange beyond crude oil, although their contribution must be viewed alongside the much larger role still played by oil and financial-market inflows.
Foreign investors show greater interest
Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, linked part of the improvement to stronger foreign investor confidence and increased portfolio inflows.
Yusuf said, “It takes a lot of confidence in an economy for foreign inflows to come in,” while also pointing to improving export performance.
A source at the CBN disclosed that interest from foreign investors in Nigerian government securities had increased, with the apex bank receiving enquiries from foreign investors seeking information about Nigeria’s long-term bonds.
The development suggests that some investors are showing greater interest in holding Nigerian financial assets, although the extent to which such inflows remain in the country over the longer term remains uncertain.
FX and monetary reforms
Changes in Nigeria’s foreign exchange management have also played a role in the changing external position.
Analysts have linked stronger inflows partly to reforms aimed at improving liquidity and reducing distortions in the foreign exchange market.
The improvement in reserves has occurred alongside a period of relative stability in the naira.
The currency closed at N1,329.50/$ on September 15, compared with N1,328/$ on September 10, with the naira remaining within a narrow range over four consecutive trading sessions.
The stronger reserve position gives the CBN a larger external buffer with which to respond to temporary foreign exchange pressures and manage excessive volatility.
The numbers show how quickly reserves have accumulated
The pace of accumulation has accelerated during 2026.
Reserves stood at $50.03 billion in March and reached $49.80 billion on June 1. They crossed $50 billion on June 4 and reached $51.53 billion by July 3.
By August 14, reserves had risen to $52.32 billion.
They then climbed to $53.90 billion on September 1, $54.08 billion on September 3 and finally $54.61 billion on September 14.
That means Nigeria added about $707.75 million to its reserves during the first 14 days of September alone, while the balance increased by about $2.28 billion between August 14 and September 14.
The current position is also above the approximately $51.04 billion reserve level projected by the CBN for the whole of 2026.
Sustainability remains a concern
Despite the sharp increase, analysts have cautioned that the composition of the reserves matters as much as the headline figure.
A former Access Bank Treasury official noted that it is difficult to attribute the buildup to one particular source because several channels contribute to reserve accumulation.
Portfolio inflows can strengthen Nigeria’s foreign exchange liquidity, but they can also leave quickly when global interest rates, exchange-rate expectations or investor sentiment change.
Similarly, oil remains vulnerable to fluctuations in international crude prices and disruptions to domestic production.
Olu Olajemgbese of the University of Abuja therefore argued that a more sustainable improvement would require a broader mix of foreign exchange sources, including non-oil exports, remittances and productive foreign direct investment.
Gwambe has also raised concerns about the continuing gap between the official and parallel foreign exchange markets.
“My worry is on the inherent gaps between the official market and the parallel market rates,” he said.
He called for greater integration of Bureau de Change operators into the formal foreign exchange system and increased participation in the market.





