Nigeria’s gas industry supplied 62 percent of gas produced to foreign markets in the first quarter of 2026, though the domestic demand remained largely unmet.

This was detailed in data from factsheets by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), an average of 4.832 bscf/day was produced during the quarter but allocations increasingly skewed toward exports — leaving power generation, industries, and households under pressure.

The factsheet showed that while production remained relatively stable — January (4.837 bscf/day), February (4.771 bscf/day), and March (4.888 bscf/day) — domestic utilization steadily weakened as export demand intensified.

In contrast, average daily gas supplied to the domestic market dropped to 1.906 bscf/day in January, 1.763 bscf/day in February, and 1.855 bscf/day in March, indicating that the local market is increasingly treated as a balancing segment — absorbing cuts whenever export demand rises.

At the center of this shift is the Nigeria LNG Limited, which saw gas supply to its six operational trains rise consistently from 2.931 bscf/day in January to 3.018 bscf/day in February and 3.033 bscf/day in March.

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By March, NLNG alone accounted for about 62% of total gas exports, significantly tightening volumes available for domestic use.

The factsheet showed that sharp decline in gas allocations to thermal power plants nationwide is driven primarily by allocation and offtake decisions rather than any underlying supply shortage.

Gas-to-power supply declined sharply by 25% within one quarter, dropping from 0.648 bscf/day in January to 0.536 bscf/day in February and 0.485 bscf/day in March.

This contraction directly correlates with persistent grid instability and electricity shortfalls nationwide witnessed during the quarter.

Average daily gas supply to industrial users remained largely flat — 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March — indicating that constraints on manufacturing and petrochemical output stem less from infrastructure limitations and more from inconsistent allocation of gas.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s cooking gas market tipped into deficit.

Supply, which stood at 5,110 MT/day in January and 4,703 MT/day in February, failed to keep pace with demand in March, where 4,726 MT/day supply lagged behind 5,122 MT/day consumption, resulting in an approximately 400 MT/day shortfall.

This tightening supply to demand balance has sustained high retail prices, which ranges from N950/kg to N1,550/kg during the quarter, thereby forcing many households to revert to alternative fuels such as charcoal and firewood.

Commercial gas supply showed moderate volatility, rising from 0.573 bscf/day in January to 0.628 bscf/day in February, before easing to 0.601 bscf/day in March, showing uncertainty in supply planning for commercial users — particularly in emerging segments such as CNG-based transportation.

In contrast, supply to gas-based industries — including fertilizer, petrochemicals, and manufacturing — remained largely flat at 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March, pointing to stagnation in industrial feedstock availability.

This suggests that constraints are driven less by processing capacity and more by inconsistent and unreliable gas allocation.

Despite the Petroleum Industry Act’s intent to safeguard domestic supply through delivery obligations, findings indicate these commitments are increasingly being sidelined, as export-oriented allocations take precedence.

On the export front, combined flows through NLNG and the West African Gas Pipeline averaged about 0.156 bscf/day in Q1, reinforcing the steady outward push.

The LNG shipments alone grew by 6.4%, rising from 52,857 MT/day in January to 56,241 MT/day in March, outpacing every domestic segment.

The Dangote Refinery supplied about 72.3 percent of Nigeria’s total domestic demand for petrol in March, while consumption fell by approximately 17 percent during the period under consideration from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres last month.

Besides, although still modest compared to last year’s massive importation, the share of petrol imports in the supply mix surged by 96.7 percent month-on-month, rising from 3 million litres per day to 5.9 million litres/day during the period.

Data from the March 2026 fact sheet on midstream and downstream petroleum operations provided by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) yesterday, showed that the 47.3 million litres per day consumption for march fell below the national average of 50 million litres per day.

Overrall, the data indicated that total domestic petrol supply stood at 34.2 million litres per day in March. When measured against total consumption of 47.3 million litres per day, this placed Dangote Refinery’s contribution at approximately 72.3 percent of the domestic market, reaffirming its dominant role in the country’s fuel supply chain.

However, the supply mix also reflected a sharp increase in the role of imports. The fact sheet showed that petrol import contribution rose from 3 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, equivalent to a 96.7 percent jump in import share.

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However, this increase in imported petrol between February and March was despite the downstream regulator’s insistence that it has halted the issuance of import licenses to oil marketers for months.

For over a year, owner of the 650,000 barrels per day facility in Lagos, Aliko Dangote, has pushed to end petrol imports in order to, according to him, protect local refining and grow the economy. Dangote’s refinery, which began production of petrol in 2024, has argued that Nigeria’s import licensing regime undermines local refining by allowing marketers to continue bringing in petrol even when domestic supply is increasing.

The company has maintained that under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), imports should only be permitted when there is a clear supply shortfall, not as a parallel system competing with local production.

On the other hand, oil marketers and a cross section of Nigerians believe that leaving the market solely for Dangote, without any competition from any other refinery, especially from NNPC’s defunct Port Harcourt and Warri refineries will lead to a monopoly and inflated pump prices.

The NMDPRA fact sheet further showed that other domestic refining sources contributed only marginal volumes, specifically diesel refining. The three operational modular refineries: Walter Smith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel collectively supplied about 0.629 million litres per day of diesel during the month.

Walter Smith refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 59.56 per cent, supplying 0.241 million litres per day. Edo Refinery recorded 64.69 percent utilisation with 0.051 million litres per day, while Aradel posted 58.84 percent utilisation, delivering 0.337 million litres per day.

Average diesel consumption during the period stood at 14.5 million litres daily, slightly above the 14 million litres per day national benchmark, despite the rising prices as a result of the Middle East crisis, indicating sustained demand from industrial and commercial users.

Similarly, in March, aviation fuel consumption remained lower at 2.1 million litres per day compared to the 3 million litres per day benchmark for the country and against the 2.9 million litres per day supplied in February.

In the whole gas market segment, total supply averaged 4.888 Billion Standard Cubic Feet Per Day (Bscf/d). Of this, 3.033 Bscf/d was supplied to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG), representing approximately 62 percent of total gas supply.

Domestic gas supply stood at 1.855 Bscf/d, with utilisation spread across key sectors. Gas-to-power accounted for 0.485 Bscf/d, commercial consumption stood at 0.430 Bscf/d, and gas-based industries utilised 0.601 Bscf/d.

In the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) segment, the NMDPRA data indicated that demand outpaced supply during the period. Average daily supply stood at 4,726 metric tonnes, while consumption reached 5,122 metric tonnes per day, leaving a shortfall of 396 metric tonnes daily. Also, retail LPG prices ranged between N980 and N1,450 per kilogramme nationally.

Fuel sufficiency data showed that petrol stock levels stood at 21 days, including pumpable volumes at the Dangote Refinery, diesel sufficiency was 55 days, aviation fuel stood at 109 days, and LPG at 14 days.

In the same vein, the midstream and downstream regulator put the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline completion level at 79.23 per cent; OB3 River Crossing at 59.50 per cent and the Odidi-Warri Expansion Project (OWEP) at 67.34 per cent completion rate.

Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Rt Hon Ekperikpe Ekpo, has commended Southfield Petroleum Limited (SPL) and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) for advancing Nigeria’s gas development agenda through strategic infrastructure investments.

Ekpo gave the commendation at the groundbreaking ceremony of the 200 MMSCFD SPL Utorogu Gas Processing Plant in Iwherekan, Ughelli, Delta State.

He noted that the project was aligned with the federal government’s vision of harnessing gas resources for economic growth and energy security, noting that it would unlock Nigeria’s vast gas potential under the Decade of Gas Initiative.

Represented by the Director Gas, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Elisha Benjamin Dan-Asabe, the Gas Minister also praised the NCDMB for driving local content development and facilitating investments across the oil and gas value chain, particularly in the Niger Delta.

“I have to commend the Board and Management of Southfield Petroleum Limited for this bold and strategic investment. This project is not only timely but also strongly aligns with the Federal Government’s vision of using Nigeria’s gas resources as a catalyst for economic growth, industrialisation, and energy security,” Ekpo said.

“Through strategic interventions and partnerships such as this, the Board is deepening local content, unlocking financing for critical infrastructure, and accelerating gas development. This project clearly demonstrates the NCDMB’s commitment to translating policy into tangible, high-impact investments that deliver value for the economy and the people,” he stated.

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The Minister described the Utorogu Gas Processing Plant as critical infrastructure that will boost domestic gas supply by processing wet gas into lean gas for reinjection into the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System, supporting power generation and industrial activities nationwide.

He added that the facility’s capacity to produce natural gas liquids—including liquefied petroleum gas, propane, and condensate—would significantly increase LPG availability and support Nigeria’s clean cooking initiative.

“This is how we translate policy into results: through investments that expand energy access, create jobs, and drive local economic development,” he said.

The Minister emphasised the importance of collaboration among government, investors, and host communities, assuring that the Federal Government would continue to provide an enabling environment through transparent regulations and investment-friendly policies to ensure successful project delivery.