Despite a sharp resurgence in petrol imports, domestic refineries, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, emerged as Nigeria’s largest source of petrol supply in the first seven months of 2026, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) supply, while imports fell sharply compared with the corresponding period of 2025.

This comes amid increasing dependence on imported petrol in June and July after the authority issued import licences and supplies from domestic refineries dropped sharply, forcing a bigger contribution from imports despite the country’s expanding refining capacity.

An analysis of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s monthly fact sheets by The PUNCH on Wednesday showed that domestic refineries supplied approximately 7.41 billion litres of petrol between January and July 2026, compared with about 4.27 billion litres in the corresponding period of 2025.

The figure represents an increase of approximately 3.14 billion litres, or 73.5 per cent, within one year. Petrol imports, however, fell from approximately 6.58 billion litres between January and July 2025 to about 2.48 billion litres in the corresponding period of 2026, representing a decline of about 4.10 billion litres, or 62.3 per cent.

READ ALSO: DPRP Decries Rising Fuel Imports, Despite Strong Local Supply Capacity

The seven-month figures confirm a dramatic reversal in Nigeria’s petrol supply structure, with domestic refining displacing imports as the country’s dominant source of PMS.

Of the approximately 9.89 billion litres of petrol supplied between January and July 2026, domestic refineries accounted for 74.9 per cent, while imported petrol contributed 25.1 per cent.

This contrasts sharply with the corresponding period of 2025, when Nigeria relied primarily on imported petrol. Between January and July 2025, the country received approximately 10.85 billion litres of PMS, comprising 6.58 billion litres from imports and 4.27 billion litres from domestic refineries.

Imports therefore accounted for approximately 60.6 per cent of the total petrol supply during the seven-month period in 2025, while domestic refining accounted for 39.4 per cent.

The data show that domestic refining gained more than 35 percentage points of Nigeria’s petrol supply market within one year, while the share of imports dropped by the same margin.

To reach this conclusion, our correspondent analysed NMDPRA data on daily average domestic and imported petrol supplies from January to July 2025 and compared them with the figures for the corresponding period of 2026. The analysis covered the actual number of days in each month.

The latest NMDPRA fact sheet for July showed that domestic refining supplied an average of approximately 25.8 million litres of petrol per day, while imports contributed about 19.7 million litres daily.

This translates to approximately 799.8 million litres from domestic refineries and 610.7 million litres from imports during July, based on the 31 days in the month.

The July figures showed that while imports increased compared with some of the preceding months, domestic refining remained the larger source of petrol supply.

The development extends the trend recorded in the first half of the year, when domestic refineries supplied approximately 6.61 billion litres, compared with about 1.87 billion litres supplied through imports.

However, the July figures also showed that Nigeria’s domestic refining system remains vulnerable to fluctuations in refinery output, as imported petrol continues to serve as a major source of supply whenever local production declines.

Overall, domestic refinery supply increased by approximately 73.5 per cent between the January-to-July periods of 2025 and 2026, while petrol imports declined by about 62.3 per cent.

A month-by-month analysis revealed that domestic petrol refining supply recorded a mixed performance in the first seven months of 2026. Supply started at 40.1 million litres per day in January but fell by 26.7 per cent to 29.4 million litres daily in February.

It recovered in March, rising by 16.3 per cent to 34.2 million litres per day, before increasing further by 19 per cent to 40.7 million litres daily in April. The upward trend continued in May, when domestic supply rose marginally by two per cent to a seven-month high of 41.5 million litres per day.

However, the gains were reversed in the following months. Domestic refining supply fell by 21.7 per cent to 32.5 million litres daily in June and dropped by another 20.6 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day in July, the lowest level recorded in 2026.

In contrast, domestic refining supply in 2025 recorded only one month of growth during the January-to-July period. Supply rose by 29.8 per cent from 19.1 million litres per day in January to 24.8 million litres daily in February.

Thereafter, supply declined for five consecutive months. It fell by 7.7 per cent to 22.9 million litres daily in March, declined by 6.1 per cent to 21.5 million litres in April and dropped by 14 per cent to 18.5 million litres daily in May.

The downward trend continued in June, when domestic supply declined by 2.2 per cent to 18.1 million litres per day, before falling by another 8.8 per cent to 16.5 million litres daily in July.

Overall, the figures show that while domestic petrol refining supply in 2026 was significantly higher than in 2025, the sector experienced greater volatility. Supply climbed to a peak of 41.5 million litres per day in May 2026 before declining sharply by about 38 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day in July. In 2025, the decline was more gradual but persistent, with supply falling for five consecutive months after its February peak.

Despite the substantial increase in locally refined petrol, Nigeria’s overall PMS supply declined slightly during the period. Total petrol supply fell from approximately 10.85 billion litres between January and July 2025 to about 9.89 billion litres in the corresponding period of 2026, representing a reduction of about 957 million litres, or 8.8 per cent.

The figures underline the rapid transformation of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market following the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other domestic refining facilities.

The Dangote refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, has emerged as the dominant contributor to Nigeria’s domestic petrol supply since commencing commercial operations.

Its increased output has significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported PMS, which for decades accounted for the majority of fuel consumed in the country.

However, the volatility in monthly domestic supply has continued to expose the fragility of the country’s transition away from imports.

In June, for instance, domestic refinery supply fell sharply compared with May, while imports rose substantially to fill the resulting supply gap. The July data showed that imports remained elevated, supplying more than 610 million litres during the month, although domestic refineries still supplied nearly 800 million litres.

The development came amid continuing disagreements between the Federal Government and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery over crude supply, petrol imports and the structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.

The refinery has repeatedly raised concerns about access to locally produced crude and foreign exchange required to purchase feedstock. According to a recent Bloomberg report, the refinery increasingly directed products towards export markets as it struggled with crude supply and foreign exchange constraints under the naira-for-crude arrangement.

“We are exporting as much as possible,” Bloomberg quoted the Group Vice-President of Dangote Refinery, Devakumar V.G. Edwin, as saying. “We are not able to get enough dollars from the Central Bank, and it doesn’t make any sense to be selling the products in naira and not being able to buy dollars. We need the dollars to buy our feedstock.”

The January-to-July figures nevertheless show that Nigeria’s petrol market has undergone a fundamental shift. Within one year, domestic refineries moved from supplying less than two-fifths of the country’s petrol needs to accounting for about three-quarters of total supply, while the dominance of imported products weakened considerably.

The figures suggest that Nigeria’s transition from an import-dependent petrol market to a domestic-refining-led system is accelerating, although the continued supply of more than 2.48 billion litres of imported petrol in seven months shows that imports remain important in bridging supply gaps.

The development has also renewed the debate over the future of petrol imports.

Amid the crisis, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria in July urged the Federal Government to halt petrol importation, arguing that imported products had become more expensive than locally refined fuel and were undermining efforts to stabilise prices in the downstream sector.

Speaking with The PUNCH, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, said the continued issuance of import licences was failing to achieve its intended objective of moderating domestic fuel prices.

Ukadike said, “Independent marketers have looked at the issues of price volatility, import licences and the sale of petroleum products in dollars. I want to use this opportunity to urge the Federal Government to transparently review these issues through the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, which is the industry’s regulator.

“The recent import licences, which were expected to serve as a guide and a check on the prices of petroleum products refined locally, are not yielding the results we expected. We were shocked that the licences issued to depot owners to import petroleum products are resulting in prices of about N1,350 per litre, which is far higher than what Dangote has been selling to us.”

He stressed that the objective of allowing fuel imports was to create competition capable of checking domestic prices but argued that the policy had failed to deliver the expected outcome.

The latest NMDPRA figures, however, indicate that while domestic refining has now become Nigeria’s largest source of petrol, imported products still play a significant role in maintaining supply whenever refinery output falls.

The seven-month data therefore underscore the importance of reliable crude supply, stable foreign exchange access and consistent refinery operations if Nigeria is to consolidate the gains from its growing domestic refining capacity and further reduce its dependence on imported petrol.

Courtesy – The Punch

The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) has expressed concern over the continued issuance of petroleum product import licences despite the refinery’s proven capacity to meet and exceed Nigeria’s domestic Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) requirements.

The refinery noted that while it remains fully committed to supporting Nigeria’s energy security and ensuring uninterrupted fuel availability across the country, the volume of imported PMS entering the market has created uncertainty in domestic demand planning and inventory management.

According to market data available to the refinery, imported PMS accounted for approximately 43 percent of the fuel supplied into the Nigerian market in July, a development that raises questions about the necessity of continued large-scale imports when substantial local refining capacity exists.

Since commencing operations, Dangote Refinery has consistently maintained sufficient inventory levels and reserved product volumes to guarantee steady supply to the Nigerian market. This commitment has required significant investment in storage, logistics, and working capital, all aimed at protecting Nigerians from supply disruptions and market volatility.

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However, the refinery stated that the absence of transparency regarding the actual volume of imported products expected into the country makes effective production and inventory planning increasingly challenging. Maintaining large stock positions without clear visibility into import volumes imposes substantial carrying costs on the refinery and ultimately undermines efficient market operations.

“As a responsible energy provider, we have always endeavoured to keep adequate reserves to satisfy local demand at all times. However, in an environment where significant volumes of imported PMS continue to enter the market through licences issued by the regulator, and where there is limited visibility on future import volumes, it becomes commercially unsustainable to continue holding excess inventory indefinitely.”

The refinery explained that, under these circumstances, any surplus products not immediately absorbed by the domestic market must be exported to regional and international markets. Consequently, DPRP’s export volumes have increased in recent months, not because local demand cannot be met, but because excess inventory generated by market uncertainty must be evacuated to avoid unnecessary storage and financing costs.

Dangote Refinery emphasised that its growing exports should not be interpreted as a lack of commitment to the Nigerian market. Rather, exports are a prudent operational response to the realities of a market where imported products continue to compete with locally refined fuel despite the availability of sufficient domestic refining capacity.

The company reiterated that it remains ready, willing, and able to meet and surpass Nigeria’s petroleum product requirements and continues to invest heavily in ensuring reliable supply across the country.

The refinery further stated that should any supply shortfalls arise as a result of market distortions created by excessive importation and the inability of local producers to accurately forecast domestic demand, such shortages should not be attributed to Dangote Refinery, which has consistently demonstrated its capacity and commitment to serving the Nigerian market.

DPRP therefore called for greater transparency, improved market coordination, and policies that support local refining, enhance energy security, conserve foreign exchange, and maximize the economic benefits of Nigeria’s investments in domestic refining capacity.

Savannah Energy PLC, has released its operational and financial update on its Nigerian operations and other markets in Africa for the seven months to 31 July 2026, including up-to-date cash collections in its Nigerian business.

The update shows that its group daily gross production averaged 16.3 Kboepd for 7M 2026, compared to 18.8 Kboepd during the same period in FY 2025. With its Uquo 13 now on stream, it expects its average gross daily production to exceed 20 Kboepd over the remaining five months of the year, with FY 2026 average gross daily production anticipated to be in the range of 18-20 Kboepd, including further upside potential from the Uquo South exploration well.

The company reported that following the completion of the SIPEC Acquisition in March 2025, the production expansion programme underway at Stubb Creek has delivered a 29% year-on-year increase in average gross daily production to 3.7 Kbopd for 7M 2026 (7M 2025: 2.8 Kbopd). Average production in July 2026 was in excess of 5.0 Kbopd.

The report also shows that its cash collections in Nigeria increased by 13% year-on-year to US$247.9 million during the 7-month period, compared to US$219.2 million during the same period in FY 2025.
According to the report, Savannah’s Revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to US$160.6 million, compared to US$146.0 million during the first seven months of 2025. As at 31 July 2026, its cash balances totalled US$62.0 million (it was US$42.7 million as at 31 December 2025), and net debt stood at US$672.0 million (31 December 2025: US$658.8 million). Its Trade Receivables balance as at 31 July 2026 was US$394.6 million, a 22% reduction on year-end 2025 (31 December 2025) of US$508.5 million.

READ ALSO: Domestic Refineries’ Crude Imports Skyrocket 151.5% in July — NMDPRA

Savannah also provided new updates on its Uquo 13, formerly known as Uquo NE and Uquo South exploration well. It reports that drilling and completion activities at the Uquo 13 well location have been concluded. The well which was tied back to the Uquo Central Processing Facility (“CPF”), achieved first gas in July and is on stream, after having successfully been tested at approximately 50 MMscfd.

The Uquo South exploration well spudded in early August 2026 and is currently being completed. Gas has been confirmed in most of the targeted reservoirs through pressure measurements, fluid sampling and logging. The Uquo South discovery is expected to be fully evaluated following completion of the well and the planned testing programme.

On Niger, Savannah reported that it continues to engage with the country’s Government in relation to the R1234 PSC and the forward work programme. These discussions, it said, are aimed at resolving disputed issues arising under this contract and notably cover the contractual and operational framework for recommencing activity, including the treatment of periods during which operations have been materially constrained. It said it continues to reserve its rights under the R1234 PSC and is seeking to agree a mutually acceptable basis with the Government for future operations, and that work will only recommence on these assets if, and when, the Company reaches such a satisfactory agreement with the Government.

The report also provides updates on ongoing arbitration in Chad where its wholly owned subsidiaries, SCI and SMIL, commenced arbitral proceedings in 2023 against the Government of the Republic of Chad. It would be recalled that SCI had sued the Chadian Government in response to the March 2023 nationalisation of SCI’s rights in the Doba fields in Chad, and other breaches of SCI’s rights. SMIL had also commenced arbitral proceedings in 2023 in relation to the nationalisation of its investment in TOTCo, the Chadian company which owns and operates the section of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline located in Chad. SMIL had also commenced arbitral and other legal proceedings for breaches of SMIL’s rights in relation to COTCo, the Cameroon company which owns and operates the section of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline located in Cameroon. Savannah said it expects these arbitral proceedings to be concluded in H2 2026.

SCI is also involved in further arbitral proceedings in which designates of Société des Hydrocarbures du Tchad allege breaches by SCI of the Doba fields joint operating agreement. SCI is defending the claims vigorously. Savannah expects these arbitral proceedings to be concluded in H1 2027.

Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Energy, said: “2025 was a year of execution for Savannah with good progress delivered across the nine focus areas we set out at the start of the year. In Nigeria, we increased our rate of cash collections year-on-year by 12%, a trend which we hope to continue into 2026, and have made significant progress in refinancing our debt facilities.

In our Hydrocarbons Division, the completion of the SIPEC acquisition in March enabled us to commence an expansion programme at Stubb Creek, increasing 2025 production materially above 2024 levels. At Uquo we delivered the new compression system under budget and advanced site construction ahead of the planned commencement of drilling of the new Uquo NE well. During the year, we also announced a 21% 2P Reserves upgrade at the Uquo gas field and a 29% upgrade to Stubb Creek oil field 2P Reserves. In Niger, we remain actively engaged with the Government on future activity, with the R3 East development plan significantly enhanced during the year.

“In the power sector, we repositioned our business model and advanced both operating and development opportunities, including the proposed acquisition of interests in three East African hydropower projects, which is targeted for completion in H1 this year. We have also continued to progress on our wind, solar and hydro portfolio. Alongside this, we continue to pursue further value-accretive acquisitions across both hydrocarbons and power, with several other opportunities under active discussion.

“We also continued to progress our arbitration claims, with the Savannah Chad Inc (“SCI”) and Savannah Midstream Investment Limited (“SMIL”) proceedings currently expected to be concluded in the first half of 2026.

“Overall, this progress provides a strong platform for continued delivery in 2026.”