Nigeria’s petrol imports rose sharply in May 2026, increasing by 59.5 percent month-on-month despite stronger production from domestic refineries led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP).

Latest data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that average daily imports of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, climbed to 5.9 million litres per day in May from 3.7 million litres per day recorded in April.

The increase indicates that oil marketers continued to rely on imported products to complement local supplies, even as domestic refineries accounted for the overwhelming share of fuel distributed across the country.

According to the NMDPRA’s Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Statistics, Nigeria’s total petrol supply increased to 47.4 million litres per day in May, compared with 44.4 million litres per day in April, representing a 6.8 percent rise.

Domestic refineries supplied 41.5 million litres per day during the month, while imported products accounted for 5.9 million litres per day. This means that locally refined products contributed nearly 88 percent of total petrol supply nationwide, underscoring the growing importance of domestic refining in meeting the country’s energy needs.

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The latest figures highlight the continuing transition of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector from heavy dependence on imported fuel to increased reliance on local refining capacity.

However, despite the rise in petrol availability, crude oil deliveries to local refineries declined during the review period.
Refiners received an average of 578,000 barrels of crude oil per day in May, down from 612,000 barrels per day in April, representing a decrease of 5.6 percent.

Industry observers say the development suggests that while local refining capacity continues to expand, refiners may still be facing operational and feedstock challenges that require supplementary imports to bridge supply gaps and maintain market stability.

Private refineries remained the major drivers of domestic fuel production during the month.

The DPRP retained its dominant position in the market, supplying 41.5 million litres of petrol daily in May, up from 40.7 million litres per day in April. The refinery recorded an average capacity utilisation rate of 101.25 percent and reportedly operated at full capacity on most production days during the month.

Other private refineries posted varying levels of operational performance.

WalterSmith Refinery achieved a capacity utilisation rate of 65.31 percent, while Edo Refinery and Petrochemicals recorded 91.66 percent utilisation. Aradel Refinery operated at 62.94 percent capacity utilisation during the period.

In contrast, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) owned Warri and Kaduna refineries remained inactive, recording no production despite ongoing rehabilitation and revamp efforts.

The continued inactivity of the state-owned refineries further highlights the growing role of private-sector investment in Nigeria’s refining industry and the increasing contribution of privately owned facilities to national fuel security.

A review of the NMDPRA supply data for the first five months of 2026 shows a broad decline in petrol imports as local refining capacity strengthened, although monthly fluctuations persisted.

In January, petrol imports averaged 24.8 million litres per day, while domestic refineries supplied 40.1 million litres daily. Imports fell dramatically to 3 million litres per day in February, although local refinery output also declined to 29.4 million litres per day during the same period.

By March, imports rebounded to 5.9 million litres per day, while domestic production improved significantly to 34.2 million litres per day. The upward trend continued in April when local refinery output rose to 40.7 million litres per day and imports eased to 3.7 million litres per day.

In May, domestic supply increased further to 41.5 million litres per day, while imports returned to 5.9 million litres per day.

Despite the latest jump, petrol imports remain substantially below January levels, pointing to a structural shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain following the expansion of local refining operations.

The data comes as Nigeria’s crude oil production also showed signs of improvement. Recent industry figures indicate that average daily crude oil output rose to 1.53 million barrels per day in May from 1.489 million barrels per day in April, an increase of 41,000 barrels per day.

The increase marked Nigeria’s first return above its production quota under the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) since mid-2025, providing additional support for the country’s efforts to strengthen domestic refining and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

Global oil market disruptions occasioned by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions involving the United States and Iran cost Nigeria’s domestic airlines operators dearly.

The Chairman of United Nigeria Airlines and spokesperson for the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), Prof Obiora Okonkwo, made the assertion, adding that his airline alone lost about N10bn within three months of the impasse.

According to Okonkwo, the geopolitical crisis triggered a rise in aviation fuel prices, worsening operating conditions for domestic carriers already battling high operating costs and infrastructure challenges.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is regarded as the world’s most critical oil transit route, handling nearly 20 percent of global petroleum shipments. Its disruption sent shockwaves through global energy markets and significantly impacted Nigeria’s aviation industry.

He spoke during the unveiling of two newly acquired Boeing 737-800 Next Generation aircraft, registered as 5N-CFC and 5N-CFB, by United Nigeria Airlines. The aircraft were named after the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe, and the late literary icon Chinua Achebe.

Reflecting on the airline’s recent challenges, Okonkwo acknowledged that reforms introduced by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, had helped stabilise the sector, but external economic pressures remained severe.

“There are seasons when there are low passengers, but in the last three months, what we have seen is simply too much. We have lost about N10bn, N5bn, N6bn in a space of three months as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We have to make up for the losses we have incurred in the last three months,” he said.

Despite the setbacks, the airline chief described the acquisition of the new aircraft as a major milestone and a sign of resilience in the Nigerian aviation sector.

“We have gathered here to celebrate. Two, three, four years ago, it was not clear what the future of aviation would be. There were issues, and in Nigeria, aviation was in total turmoil. But until our minister, Festus Keyamo, stepped in, we had a meeting in his office where he promised he would address the policy issues. Today, the right policies have helped us come this far,” he added.

Speaking on the choice of names for the aircraft, Okonkwo paid tribute to both Chinua Achebe and the Obi of Onitsha.

“Today we have one Achebe that introduced Africa to the whole world. He is from my hometown. Wherever I go around the world, I tell them that Okonkwo in Things Fall Apart is my great-great-grandfather. We have another Achebe who is a living legend and icon. We have here the Obi of Onitsha, Nnaemeka Achebe,” he said.

Providing insight into the airline’s expansion plans, he revealed that the newly acquired aircraft are part of a broader fleet acquisition programme, promising that more aircraft will arrive in the country before the year runs out.

“It is going to be six aircraft in total, and we just have two here. I thank God Almighty for making this possible,” he said.

Okonkwo also commended the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority for expediting the certification process for the aircraft, describing the regulator’s support as crucial to the airline’s growth.

“We are thankful to the DG of the NCAA who has made our services possible. I had told him I had three aircraft that were arriving. Three of his directors came to our office on a Saturday, prepared all the documents, inspected the aircraft, and issued all the certificates. The process of operating aircraft won’t be easy without ease in certifications,” he said.

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The airline chairman further highlighted the operational difficulties airlines face daily, stressing that delays are often caused by factors beyond the control of carriers.

“I know we have passengers in Nigeria that want to get to their destinations. The important thing is to get passengers to their destinations safely and in time. The truth of the matter is that the operator wants to take you there on time.

“That you buy a ticket doesn’t put money in our pockets, because you can demand a refund. Sometimes we meet situations beyond our control. When one aircraft goes bad, we start to work on the schedule so we don’t leave anyone behind. Sometimes it is a bird strike, sometimes it could be because of airport availability,” he explained.

Okonkwo also criticised the financial structure governing aviation agencies, arguing that excessive deductions from the revenues of the NCAA and the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria were limiting their ability to improve infrastructure and service delivery.

“Minister, we are not happy with the recent report from IATA that Nigeria is the most expensive place to operate. It means it costs operators more to operate. We want a reduction in the charges,” he said.

“The government yanks 70 per cent from the aviation accounts to do other things that are not aviation-related, and this strains the NCAA and FAAN. If we leave these monies in their accounts, they will be encouraged to provide the needed services. The core aspect of the Nigerian economy is driven by aviation. In conclusion, when this is done, the government can also provide a single-digit loan,” he added.

Speaking on behalf of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Executive Sales Director for Africa, Moore Ibekwe, said recent reforms in Nigeria’s aviation sector have improved access to financing, strengthened regulatory compliance and enhanced safety standards, creating a more attractive environment for aircraft acquisition and industry growth.

According to him, the improvements have enabled Nigerian operators to acquire new-generation aircraft and expand technical capacity.

He noted that Boeing recently launched a training programme in Nigeria, with its engineers providing hands-on training for local professionals. Ibekwe added that the newly acquired Boeing 737 aircraft would create significant opportunities for the country’s aviation industry and broader economy.

“The country needs about 1,200 aircraft. If we get a good percentage of these aircraft, the sky will not be our limit. We have the manpower, capability, and finances. Aviation is global; it creates good-paying jobs, opens up the economy, and positions Nigeria on the world stage in science, technology, finance, fashion, and entertainment,” he said.

Also speaking, the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe, expressed gratitude after one of the newly inducted aircraft was named in his honour alongside the late literary icon Chinua Achebe. “I am overwhelmed. I’m lost for words. It is a day of gratitude,” he said.

Also speaking at the event, the Minister of Aviation expressed delight at developments in the country’s aviation industry.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to face one of its most dicey policy decisions in months with easing global oil prices following the United States-Iran ceasefire being made worse by persistent domestic inflationary pressures, a report from SBM Intelligence said on Wednesday.

The ceasefire agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices, with Brent crude falling from a peak of about $114 per barrel to nearly $101 per barrel.

The development has eased fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions and raised expectations of moderation in fuel and transport costs across oil-importing economies.

For Nigeria, however, the policy implications are far more complex, the SBM report titled; ‘The Persian Trap Aftermath: Has West Africa Escaped a Deeper Crisis?’ said.

During the conflict, rising oil prices pushed petrol pump prices from around N830 per litre to as high as N1,325, while diesel prices climbed above N1,550 per litre, worsening transport costs and food inflation.

The resulting price shocks, the firm said, contributed to a sustained rise in consumer prices and complicated the CBN’s inflation-fighting efforts.

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Data from SBM Intelligence showed that 82.7 percent of traders surveyed across major Nigerian cities reported price increases linked directly to the conflict, while 76.4 percent experienced significant increases in transportation costs.

Headline inflation rose to 15.93 percent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, while food inflation stood at 16.96 percent year-on-year (y/y).

The SBM Jollof Index, which tracks the cost of preparing a standard family-sized pot of jollof rice, reached N30,435 in April, 19.4 percent from N25,486 six months earlier, before easing slightly to N29,800 as of early June.

Against this backdrop, the MPC maintained the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 percent throughout the conflict, prioritising exchange-rate stability, foreign investor confidence and inflation control, according to its chairman, Olayemi Cardoso.

Hence, SBM Intelligence says the committee now faces a difficult balancing act.

According to the research and strategic communications consulting firm, with oil prices retreating and the immediate supply shock fading, pressure may grow on policymakers to begin discussing a gradual easing cycle to support economic activity and reduce borrowing costs for businesses and households.

The firm warned that premature rate cuts could undermine recent gains in inflation management, particularly given lingering uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire agreement and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

“We urge caution even so. Mine-clearance in the strait will take weeks, shipping backlogs at alternative ports need resolution, and the terms of the agreement may still “inject unease and uncertainty” if ratification stalls.

The IMF has welcomed the ceasefire but underlined that the risk of fresh energy disruptions remains elevated, particularly given the unresolved posture of Houthi forces in Yemen and the absence of any normalisation framework between Iran and Israel.

So the challenge ahead for the MPC is to engineer a measured easing cycle as global prices fall, without triggering renewed inflation if the ceasefire breaks down or if the US–Iran agreement stalls in ratification. This requires close monitoring of Hormuz mine-clearance progress and the resumption curve of Iranian export volumes”, the report said.

SBM Intelligence stressed that the situation highlights structural weaknesses within Nigeria’s economy. According to the firm, despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products, domestic fuel pricing remains heavily exposed to international crude benchmarks.

It said that beyond inflation, lower oil prices could create fresh fiscal challenges for the government by reducing projected oil revenues at a time when public finances remain under pressure.

The report concluded that while the ceasefire has delivered welcome relief to global markets and Nigerian consumers, inflation remains above comfort levels, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continues to cast a shadow over the economic outlook.

“The ceasefire offers a narrow window for West Africa to build resilience. Strategic fuel reserves and fertiliser buffer stocks, financed through import levies and distributed through market associations, would protect traders from future shocks.

Regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area must be accelerated to develop overland corridors as alternatives to Middle Eastern maritime routes. Investment in solar and off-grid energy is no longer a luxury but a commercial necessity.

The underlying vulnerabilities are unchanged: import dependence, thin fiscal buffers and exposure to chokepoints beyond West African control. The ceasefire is a diplomatic achievement, but the structural realignment of global trade that the war accelerated will persist. Another shock will come”, it said.