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Ukraine likely to halt rise in U.S. stock

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NEW YORK – U.S. stocks are likely to rise next week only if investor uneasiness subsides over the crisis in Ukraine and the recent signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.

Poor weather which may have played a role in recent weak economic data and dampening profit outlooks are one of the things investors will watch out for which will underscore views that setbacks may be temporary.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s comments this week, which raised the possibility of an earlier-than-expected increase in interest rates, added another element of interest to the data.

Reports on U.S. consumer confidence and sentiment are due next week, along with data on new home sales and orders for durable goods.

The market, however, remains vulnerable to any escalation in global tensions over Ukraine, especially since the Standard & Poor’s 500 .SPX reached another intraday record high on Friday before ending lower after a bout of profit-taking.

“The trend is favorable unless it’s upset by world events, and weakening of the data both here and abroad,” said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president of BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

“I would say right now, if you look at the scorecard of economic and global events, it looks a little better than it did a month ago.”

Stocks bounced back this week after losing more than 2 percent the previous week as the problems in Ukraine and worries about a slowdown in China curbed investors’ appetite for riskier assets.

The S&P 500 ended the week up 1.4 percent, its best weekly gain since February. For the year, the benchmark index is up about 1 percent.

President Vladimir Putin signed laws completing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, though Moscow said no other Ukrainian region would be subject to intervention.

The Fed was in focus this week, when the central bank made it clear it would rely on a wide range of measures in deciding when to raise interest rates, dropping the U.S. unemployment rate as its yardstick for gauging the economy’s strength.

“You just have so much indecision. Do you feel good about what Janet said? Do you feel bad? Do you feel good about the Ukraine? Do you feel bad?” said Drew Wilson, an analyst at Fenimore Asset Management in Cobleskill, New York.

“It just feels like you have a hard time getting momentum either way.”

WALLETS AND WARNINGS

Investors will get some information next week on whether consumers kept a tight grip on their wallets last month. The Commerce Department will release February data on U.S. personal income and consumption on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters have forecast slim gains from the previous month.

A final reading on fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released on Thursday.

“Hopefully some of the data is beginning to clear itself from some of the weather impacts, and we may get some better readings on how things are going,” said Cam Albright, director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors.

Negative profit outlooks for the first quarter have been increasing as well, with more companies sounding the alarm about possible problems related to this winter’s harsh weather.

Among them was General Mills (GIS.N), which missed sales and profit expectations this week and has warned on the current quarter. Its CEO said “severe winter weather dampened sales performance across the food industry.”<ID:ASB08H38>

Thomson Reuters data showed that 108 negative outlooks have been issued so far by S&P 500 companies, while only 16 gave positive ones.

But the ratio of negative outlooks to positive ones remains below that of the fourth quarter, which was the worst since at least the first quarter of 1996, according to Thomson Reuters data.

BANKING ON DIVIDENDS

Among stocks likely to post further gains next week are financials, which climbed this week following Yellen’s comments. She indicated that the first increase in interest rates could come in the first half of next year.

Most analysts in a Reuters poll after Yellen’s comments, however, still did not expect the Fed to begin raising rates until the second half of 2015.

Another supportive element for banks came from the Fed after Thursday’s close, when the central bank said 29 out of 30 major banks met the minimum capital hurdle in its annual health check.

The S&P financial index .SPSY gained 4.3 percent for the week, its best weekly percentage increase since January of 2013.

In the coming week, the Fed will announce on Wednesday which banks’ plans to pay dividends or buy back shares were approved.

“Regulators will sign off on the dividend increases, and if they get approved, that will help the momentum in the financial stocks,” Hellwig said.

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Exxon, Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Down 46%, 37% Despite Soaring Oil Prices

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As crude oil deliveries bow to supply disruptions in the Middle East, oil giants, Exxon Mobil and Chevron have reported drops in profit in the first quarter of 2026 despite surging oil prices.

Exxon’s quarterly earnings fell to $4.2 billion from about $7.7 billion the same quarter last year, a decline of about 46 per cent, while Chevron’s profits fell to $2.2 billion from about $3.5 billion, down about 37 per cent. Still, both companies beat Wall Street expectations.

However, America’s two largest oil companies are still expected to eventually reap the benefits of soaring oil prices, which reached levels unseen since 2022 this week as the war in Iran continues, Reuters reported.

In a prepared statement, Exxon said that “timing effects” and volume impacts in the Middle East reduced reported earnings; when excluding those effects, the company reported $8.8 billion in profit. At Chevron, unfavourable timing effects totaled about $3 billion for the quarter, according to the company.

“One of the things that we called out in our press release was the timing,” Darren Woods, Exxon’s chair and chief executive officer, said in an interview. “As you close the quarter in the volatile market, you book the hedges, the paper, but the physical barrels are in inventory until they get delivered.

“So you get this deferred profit that we wanted to basically highlight, and make sure that our investors understood that the work that we’re actually doing to meet the demands today are resulting in benefits not necessarily booked in the quarter,” Woods added.

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At the start of the war, Donald Trump declared on Truth Social: “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”

Certain oil and gas companies are already reaping the benefits. BP announced that its profits more than doubled in the last quarter, crediting “exceptional oil trading” for its highest quarterly profit since 2023 – an announcement that led advocacy groups and some European finance ministers to call for greater taxes on windfall profits.

Other earnings reports indicate that it may take longer for oil companies to report clear gains. ConocoPhillips, a partner in Qatar’s state gas company, cut its forecast annual output due to disruptions in Qatar’s liquified natural gas operations caused by the war. Iranian attacks on QatarEnergy LNG’s export plant will take years to repair, state energy officials have said.

Chevron and Exxon’s stock jumped at the start of the war but eased in April as the US and Iran agreed on a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. And Lockheed Martin, a key defense contractor with the federal government, initially saw its stock jump 25 per cent since the start of the year, but has since dropped to roughly the same levels.

Meanwhile, gas prices at the pump continue to climb, with the current average reaching $4.39, up from $3.187 a year ago. Americans are also facing fears of elevated inflation and slow job growth amid turmoil in the Middle East.

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OPEC+ Hikes Oil Production Quotas, Silent on UAE Pull-out

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Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates.

The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of “their collective commitment to support oil market stability”, according to a statement published by OPEC+.

The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal.

Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE’s departure was a sign of tense relations.

Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted.

ALSO READ: NUPRC, NLNG Deepen Collaboration to Raise Gas Production

“By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon said.

Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Remains
But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.
Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.

Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send “a two-layer message” that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war.

“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter’s production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.

“Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday’s meeting.

Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.

Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.

‘A Big Deal’
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, described the UAE’s exist as “a big deal” for OPEC.

Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, Bakr told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.

The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 — far above the country’s last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.

ADNOC also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is “accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy”.

There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.

AFP

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Shareholders Laud NGX Group at 65th AGM

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Shareholders of Nigerian Exchange Group Plc (NGX Group) have commended the Board and Management for the Group’s performance and strategic direction, urging continued focus on growth and long-term value creation.

At the Group’s 65th Annual General Meeting (AGM), shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, alongside key resolutions including a final dividend of ₦2.00 per share, a one-for-three bonus share issue, and the corresponding increase in share capital. The re-election of Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Board of Directors, Dr. Okechukwu Itanyi, Independent Non-Executive Director and Mrs. Ojinika Olaghere, Independent Non-Executive Director reinforced continuity in governance and oversight.

They acknowledged the Group’s disciplined execution and its role in strengthening the Nigerian capital market, noting that recent developments reflect a more structured and better-regulated market environment.

Speaking during the meeting, the President, New Dimension Shareholders Association, Patrick Ajudua, commended the leadership of the Group for delivering a strong financial outcome, noting that the results reflect both improved market conditions and deliberate strategic execution. “The numbers speak to a business that is gaining strength and direction,” he said.

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Similarly, the Chairman of the Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Boniface Okezie, lauded the Group’s commitment to innovation and infrastructure development. “The market is becoming more forward-looking, supported by strong leadership at the Group level. Initiatives around market infrastructure and participation are yielding results, and this is positive for investors,” he noted.

Commenting during the AGM, Chairman of NGX Group, Umaru Kwairanga, appreciated shareholders for their continued support and reaffirmed the Board’s commitment to sustainable value delivery. He said, “The progress recorded reflects the strength of the Group’s strategy and the performance of its operating businesses. As a Board, our responsibility is to ensure disciplined oversight, uphold strong governance standards, and position NGX Group to deliver sustainable, long-term value to shareholders.”

Temi Popoola, group managing director/chief executive officer, focused on execution priorities, noting that the Group is positioning for scale. He said, “This next phase is about deepening momentum. Our priority is to scale infrastructure, broaden participation, and unlock new pathways for capital formation.”

The meeting reflected strong shareholder confidence in NGX Group’s leadership, with the Group reaffirming its commitment to playing a central role in the evolution of Nigeria’s capital market while delivering sustained returns to investors.

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