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US-Iran Deal over Strait of Hormuz May Cost Nigeria up to N13trn

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The peace deal between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz might cost Nigeria dearly in oil revenues.

Nigeria’s oil earnings recorded an estimated windfall of about N5.13 trillion in two months (February to April), as crude prices surged sharply following tensions between the United States–Iran crisis, pushing revenues far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget estimates.

Recall that the US-Iran war started on February 28 when oil prices were below $70 a barrel.
The hostilities brought the Strait of Hormuz, a major global energy gateway, under blockade for four months.

However, three days ago, a truce was reached among all parties, leading to a ceasefire and the reopening of the channel.

While the war lasted, oil prices rose to an all time peak of over $120 per barrel, further boosting revenue for Nigeria.

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The 2026 budget is anchored on daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

Based on these, expected daily oil revenue stands at $116.73m, derived from multiplying 1.8 million barrels by $64.85. When converted at the budget exchange rate, this amounts to about N163.42bn per day, which serves as the baseline for measuring any revenue gains or shortfalls.
Actual earnings in March and April exceeded this benchmark, largely due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices occasioned by the crisis in the Middle East.

Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that Nigeria’s oil production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, while the average crude price stood at $95.03 per barrel, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, and the exchange rate averaged N1,370 to the dollar.

Going by these figures, daily revenue amounted to approximately $147.30m, obtained by multiplying 1.55 million barrels by $95.03. Converted at the average exchange rate for the month, this translates to about N201.80bn per day.

Despite production falling short of the budget target by about 250,000 barrels per day, the higher oil price ensured that overall revenue remained significantly above projections.

But should the reopening of Strait of Hormuz drive crude prices towards Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel as against elevated crisis level of $95 per barrel, the country could lose about N13 trillion in the remaining months of 2026.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will return millions of barrels of Middle East crude to the market. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE collectively produce more than 15 million barrels per day, compared with Nigeria’s average output of about 1.55 million barrels per day.

The renewed availability of these supplies could narrow the premium enjoyed by Nigerian crude grades during the disruption and intensify competition in key Asian markets.

Energy

NUPRC Presents Successful Bidders with Licences

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As part of a strategy to draw more fresh investments into Nigeria’s upstream sector, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has presented Petroleum Prospecting Licences (PPL) to successful bidders from the concluded 2022/2023 Mini Bid Round and the Nigeria 2024 Licensing Round.

The PPL were presented to the successful bidders, by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), during the 25th Nigeria Oil and Gas Energy Week Conference and Exhibition in Abuja on Wednesday.

Among the companies presented with licences were Broron Energy Limited, which received PPL 2009; Petroli Energy Marketing and Supply Limited, awarded PPL 269; Sahara Deepwater Resources Limited, which secured PPLs 270 and 271; and Tulcan Energy E&P Company, awarded PPL 2008.

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Companies whose representatives were not present will have their execution ceremonies scheduled shortly at mutually convenient dates.

In total, the exercise covers 12 successful awardees across 19 Petroleum Prospecting Licences, comprising a balanced portfolio of deep offshore, shallow water and continental shelf acreages, reflecting the diversity of opportunities offered through the licensing rounds.

According to the NUPRC, the awards represent another significant milestone in Nigeria’s continuing efforts to deepen investment in the upstream petroleum sector, accelerate exploration activities, expand the nation’s hydrocarbon reserves, and create long-term value for the Nigerian economy.

The latest developments come as Nigeria intensifies efforts to raise crude oil production above two million barrels per day and attract fresh capital into its oil and gas industry following years of declining investments, ageing infrastructure, oil theft and project delays.

Since the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the Federal Government and industry regulators have introduced fiscal incentives and regulatory reforms to improve competitiveness and restore investor confidence in the country’s upstream petroleum sector.

Industry are optimistic that the award of new exploration licences, could signal renewed momentum for Nigeria’s deepwater segment, which has long been regarded as critical to achieving sustainable crude oil production growth and boosting government revenues.

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Chevron Nigeria, NGIC Sign Network Entry Agreement for Escravos Gas Delivery

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World Environment Day 2022: Chevron Commits to a sustainable Future

Chevron Nigeria Limited (CNL), in collaboration with Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s subsidiary – NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company Limited (NGIC), has concluded a Network Entry Agreement (NEA) for the system entry point into the Escravos–Lagos Pipeline System.

It was gathered that the NEA establishes the contractual framework required under the Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code to govern gas delivery operations and associated interfacing / information exchange between CNL’s Escravos Gas Plant and NGIC.

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According to Jim Swartz, Chairman and Managing Director, CNL, the agreement underscores the NNPCL/CNL Joint Venture’s commitment to safe and reliable gas delivery while supporting Nigeria’s broader gas development.

“By strengthening the interface between CNL’s Escravos Gas Plant and NGIC’s transportation network, we are helping to enhance energy security, infrastructure efficiency and long-term value creation for Nigeria,” he said.

On his part, Olusoga Oduselu, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, CNL, stated that the development of Nigeria’s uniform NEA framework places Nigeria among the league of countries whose central gas pipeline transporters operate under a standardized framework governing gas injection and offtake.

“By establishing this common gas injection and offtake framework, the NEA reinforces the critical gatekeeping role of the gas Network Operator, NGIC, and delivery facility operators — like CNL, as operator of the NNPCL/CNL Joint Venture— in ensuring that incoming gas does not compromise the safety, integrity, or efficiency of the national gas network,” he noted.

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Energy

Marketers Push N800/l Petrol, Seek Import Licences

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Independent petroleum marketers on Monday pushed for the restoration of importation rights and projected that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, could fall below N800 per litre as the Federal Government intensified efforts to force down the cost of petrol.

The development came as the Federal Government met with major operators in the downstream petroleum sector, including representatives of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, over what it described as the disconnect between falling global crude oil prices and the relatively high pump prices of petrol in the domestic market.

The stakeholders’ meeting on cost-reflective pricing of PMS, held at the headquarters of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority in Abuja, brought together the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Retailers Association of Nigeria, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, the Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners, and other major operators in the sector.

Also in attendance were chief executives and representatives of TotalEnergies, Eterna Plc, Matrix Energy Group, officials of the NMDPRA, and delegates from the Dangote refinery.

The petrol prices have remained a major source of hardship for households and businesses in Nigeria, with pump prices surging following the spike in global crude oil prices triggered by tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and the United States.

Although crude prices have moderated after diplomatic efforts eased the tensions, the reduction has yet to be fully reflected in domestic petrol prices, prompting the Federal Government to convene a stakeholders’ meeting aimed at driving a fair reduction in pump prices.

The National President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abubakar Maigandi, urged the government to permit independent marketers to import petroleum products directly, saying greater competition would ultimately reduce prices.

Maigandi also called for support for local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, while stressing the need to allow marketers to import products whenever necessary.

“Our major concern is that if products are to be distributed, let IPMAN buy products directly from the Dangote refinery and then, if we request importation, let IPMAN import by themselves. What we are trying to encourage is our local refinery. Let the government allow the local refinery to function properly and assist those who intend to refine products too,” he said.

The IPMAN president assured Nigerians that independent marketers were prepared to slash petrol prices significantly and projected that pump prices could fall below N800 per litre under the right market conditions.

“The price of the product is coming down bit by bit. Even when the price was increased, it was not increased at the same time. Likewise, now, as the price is coming down, we too are bringing the price down. If you check prices all over the country, you will see that independent petroleum marketers are reducing their prices gradually. Presently, we have reduced by N125 per litre nationwide,” he stated.

Miagandi added, “At any time when there is a reduction in price, we are ready to reduce the price to even below N800 per litre, not even N900. It depends on the way we buy the product from the private depot owners and the Dangote refinery.

“I thank God that the Dangote refinery has accepted independent petroleum marketers to start purchasing products directly. It is a plus, and very soon the populace will see the change in terms of price.”

The renewed push for importation comes amid an intense pricing battle in the downstream sector following the commencement of large-scale production at the Dangote refinery and the deregulation of the petrol market.

Speaking to journalists after a closed-door session with the stakeholders, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said the government remained concerned that current petrol prices were not reflective of prevailing crude oil prices in the international market.

According to him, the government had engaged marketers in frank discussions aimed at ensuring that the reduction in global crude prices translates into lower pump prices for Nigerians.

Lokpobiri said, “The engagements are ongoing. We had very fruitful and frank discussions with the marketers and the leaders of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry with a view to driving down the price of PMS.

“My own opinion is that the petrol prices are not cost-reflective; they are not reflective of the cost of crude oil. But the marketers are also saying that crude oil prices are still high.

“In fact, somebody told us right there that the crude oil price for a month is still over $90 per barrel. But we are saying that when Brent crude was over $118 per barrel, the price was rapidly going up. Now that the price has come down drastically, why has petrol not come down correspondingly? That is a worry.”

The minister said the government had communicated the concerns of consumers to operators and directed them to return with practical measures that would lead to lower petrol prices.

“We have said that these are the issues of concern to the government. They have also said they will go back and think about what they can put together with a view to addressing the issue of the high cost of PMS that is not reflective of the price of crude in the market.

“We told them the concern of the Nigerian consumer, and they have also said they will go back and think of what concrete steps can be taken with a view to ensuring that the price drops,” he stated.

On when Nigerians should expect a reduction in petrol prices, Lokpobiri said discussions were still ongoing and declined to give a deadline. “As we called you today, we will call you as soon as possible. But the important thing is that discussions are ongoing,” he added.

Before the closed-door meeting, Lokpobiri warned petroleum marketers against using profits from previously acquired expensive fuel inventories as justification for maintaining high petrol prices, insisting that the benefits of lower replacement costs must be passed on to consumers.

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The government said the continued disconnect between falling international crude oil prices and domestic petrol prices had become a source of concern, warning petroleum marketers against sustaining high pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit despite declining global crude prices and insisting that Nigerians should enjoy the benefits of lower replacement costs in a deregulated market.

He insisted that temporary gains realised from inventories purchased when crude oil prices were higher should not become the basis for sustaining elevated pump prices after global oil prices had declined.

“I am aware that PMS pricing is influenced by several factors beyond crude oil prices, but it is equally important to distinguish between genuine replacement cost and windfall gains arising from inventory management.

“Temporary gains realised from inventories acquired at higher prices should not become the basis for sustaining elevated pump prices after replacement costs have declined. As inventories are replenished at lower costs, the benefits of those lower costs should be transmitted to consumers in a timely and transparent manner. That is the essence of a competitive and efficiently functioning market,” he stated.

According to the minister, as marketers replenish their stocks at lower costs, reductions in procurement expenses should be reflected promptly in ex-depot and retail petrol prices in line with the principles of a competitive and efficient deregulated market.

The minister added that the Federal Government remained committed to protecting consumers in the post-subsidy era, stressing that deregulation was not designed to create opportunities for excessive pricing or market distortions but to deepen competition, improve efficiency, and deliver value to Nigerians.

He further warned that sustaining high energy costs beyond what prevailing market conditions justify could worsen inflationary pressures and undermine the gains recorded in moderating the country’s inflation rate.

The minister urged petroleum marketers and operators to immediately transmit the benefits of falling global crude oil prices to Nigerian consumers, warning that deregulation should not be exploited to sustain high petrol prices and generate windfall gains.

His comments come amid growing public concerns over the slow pace of reductions in petrol prices despite the sharp moderation in crude oil prices in recent months.

According to the minister, international crude prices traded between $61 and $65 per barrel in January before surging above $118 per barrel in April following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, prices have since declined to around $71 per barrel after the easing of the tensions.

He noted that while the earlier rise in crude prices exerted upward pressure on petrol prices, the subsequent decline had not been reflected proportionately in domestic pump prices.

“Ordinarily, such movements in crude oil prices should be reflected in the pricing of refined petroleum products. While the initial increase in crude prices understandably exerted upward pressure on PMS prices, the subsequent moderation in crude oil prices has not translated into a commensurate reduction in pump prices across the domestic market.

“This disconnect has understandably raised concerns. PMS peaked at about N1,596 per litre in May and currently sells at around N1,296 per litre. While there has been some reduction, the adjustment has not been commensurate with the decline in underlying market conditions,” the minister said.

He also called for the speedy operationalisation of the National Strategic Stock, describing it as a critical instrument for safeguarding national energy security and moderating future price shocks.

“The National Strategic Stock will strengthen national energy security, reduce exposure to supply disruptions, and moderate price volatility. There is urgency in ensuring that this mechanism becomes fully operational,” he said.

Nigeria’s petrol market has witnessed sharp fluctuations in prices over the past year, with pump prices peaking at over N1,500 per litre in some parts of the country following spikes in global crude oil prices and exchange rate volatility.

However, the recent decline in international oil prices and improved domestic refining capacity have increased pressure on marketers to cut prices, with many consumers expecting further reductions in the coming weeks.

The outcome of the government’s engagement with operators could determine the next phase of competition in the downstream sector and whether Nigerians will eventually see petrol prices fall to the N800 per litre level projected by marketers.

Earlier in his opening remarks, the Authority Chief Executive of the NMDPRA, Rabiu Umar, said the meeting was convened at the directive of the minister to address the growing concerns surrounding petrol pricing and ensure that Nigerians benefit from improvements in global market conditions.

Umar recalled that a similar engagement with operators in the domestic gas sector had recently resulted in a noticeable reduction in liquefied petroleum gas prices, expressing optimism that the same collaborative approach could deliver results in the petrol market.

“Just two weeks ago, many of us gathered in a similar forum to discuss the domestic gas sector. The candid dialogue and the actionable wins we secured during that session are already bearing fruit. Notably, we have seen LPG prices coming down significantly across the market, and we look forward to seeing even more reduction within the next two weeks.

“It is exactly this kind of tangible success that inspired today’s gathering. When regulators and industry operators sit at the same table, we do not just debate challenges; we engineer solutions,” he said.

The NMDPRA boss acknowledged that global crude prices had moderated significantly in recent weeks but lamented that the domestic retail market had yet to adjust accordingly.

“As a responsible regulatory authority, it is our duty to step in alongside you, our valued partners, to interrogate the market forces, understand the operational bottlenecks, and directly address this disconnect between falling replacement costs and sustained retail prices.

“Deregulation is not a licence for market distortion or unfair consumer pricing. It is intended to drive efficiency, maximise value, and protect the public interest. Sustainable profitability for marketers and consumer welfare are not mutually exclusive. We need to build a transparent ecosystem where the benefits of market improvements are passed down to the Nigerian consumer in a timely and fair manner,” Umar added.

He stressed that the objective of the meeting was not to dictate prices but to collaborate with industry stakeholders on practical solutions that would keep businesses viable while protecting consumers.

Courtesy The Punch

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