Business
Ukraine likely to halt rise in U.S. stock
NEW YORK – U.S. stocks are likely to rise next week only if investor uneasiness subsides over the crisis in Ukraine and the recent signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.
Poor weather which may have played a role in recent weak economic data and dampening profit outlooks are one of the things investors will watch out for which will underscore views that setbacks may be temporary.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s comments this week, which raised the possibility of an earlier-than-expected increase in interest rates, added another element of interest to the data.
Reports on U.S. consumer confidence and sentiment are due next week, along with data on new home sales and orders for durable goods.
The market, however, remains vulnerable to any escalation in global tensions over Ukraine, especially since the Standard & Poor’s 500 .SPX reached another intraday record high on Friday before ending lower after a bout of profit-taking.
“The trend is favorable unless it’s upset by world events, and weakening of the data both here and abroad,” said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president of BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
“I would say right now, if you look at the scorecard of economic and global events, it looks a little better than it did a month ago.”
Stocks bounced back this week after losing more than 2 percent the previous week as the problems in Ukraine and worries about a slowdown in China curbed investors’ appetite for riskier assets.
The S&P 500 ended the week up 1.4 percent, its best weekly gain since February. For the year, the benchmark index is up about 1 percent.
President Vladimir Putin signed laws completing Russia’s annexation of Crimea, though Moscow said no other Ukrainian region would be subject to intervention.
The Fed was in focus this week, when the central bank made it clear it would rely on a wide range of measures in deciding when to raise interest rates, dropping the U.S. unemployment rate as its yardstick for gauging the economy’s strength.
“You just have so much indecision. Do you feel good about what Janet said? Do you feel bad? Do you feel good about the Ukraine? Do you feel bad?” said Drew Wilson, an analyst at Fenimore Asset Management in Cobleskill, New York.
“It just feels like you have a hard time getting momentum either way.”
WALLETS AND WARNINGS
Investors will get some information next week on whether consumers kept a tight grip on their wallets last month. The Commerce Department will release February data on U.S. personal income and consumption on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters have forecast slim gains from the previous month.
A final reading on fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product will be released on Thursday.
“Hopefully some of the data is beginning to clear itself from some of the weather impacts, and we may get some better readings on how things are going,” said Cam Albright, director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors.
Negative profit outlooks for the first quarter have been increasing as well, with more companies sounding the alarm about possible problems related to this winter’s harsh weather.
Among them was General Mills (GIS.N), which missed sales and profit expectations this week and has warned on the current quarter. Its CEO said “severe winter weather dampened sales performance across the food industry.”<ID:ASB08H38>
Thomson Reuters data showed that 108 negative outlooks have been issued so far by S&P 500 companies, while only 16 gave positive ones.
But the ratio of negative outlooks to positive ones remains below that of the fourth quarter, which was the worst since at least the first quarter of 1996, according to Thomson Reuters data.
BANKING ON DIVIDENDS
Among stocks likely to post further gains next week are financials, which climbed this week following Yellen’s comments. She indicated that the first increase in interest rates could come in the first half of next year.
Most analysts in a Reuters poll after Yellen’s comments, however, still did not expect the Fed to begin raising rates until the second half of 2015.
Another supportive element for banks came from the Fed after Thursday’s close, when the central bank said 29 out of 30 major banks met the minimum capital hurdle in its annual health check.
The S&P financial index .SPSY gained 4.3 percent for the week, its best weekly percentage increase since January of 2013.
In the coming week, the Fed will announce on Wednesday which banks’ plans to pay dividends or buy back shares were approved.
“Regulators will sign off on the dividend increases, and if they get approved, that will help the momentum in the financial stocks,” Hellwig said.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has increased the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 27.25% to 27.50%, marking a 25-basis-point hike.
The announcement was made on Tuesday by the CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso, following the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) final meeting for the year at the apex bank’s headquarters in Abuja.
Governor Cardoso stated that the decision to raise the MPR, which serves as Nigeria’s benchmark interest rate, was unanimously agreed upon by the committee.
He explained that the adjustment is part of efforts to address prevailing economic challenges while ensuring stability in the financial system.
Other key monetary policy parameters remain unchanged. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) stays at 50% for Deposit Money Banks and 16% for Merchant Banks.
Similarly, the Liquidity Ratio (LR) was maintained at 30%, with the Asymmetric Corridor retained at +500/-100 basis points around the MPR.
More to follow……….
In a blitz of honour, the Pan-Africa Conglomerate, Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), and its subsidiaries Dangote Cement Plc and Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals stole the show at the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association (NECA) during its 2024 annual night of recognitions.
Biztellers reports that they carted away excellence awards bestowed by the private sector employers’ body, in Lagos, over the weekend.
Specifically, the Dangote Group was recognised under the Visible Impact Award for Resilience & Entrepreneurship; Dangote Cement won the Sectoral Excellence Award in the Chemical and Non-Metallic Products category, while the 650,000bpd capacity world’s largest single train refinery, Dangote Refinery won the Groundbreaking Investment award.
Basking in the euphoria of the recognitions, DIL’s Vice-President, Oil and Gas, Devakumar Edwin, described them as reflecting the values of the Dangote Group and its subsidiaries as top employers of labour showing resilience in the face of tough business operating environment.
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According to him, the award would only spur the management of Dangote to continue in the trajectory of the fine best global best practices in business with more investments in the task of rejuvenating the nation’s economy.
In the same vein, Minister of Industry, Trade and Investments, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole and her counterpart in Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr. Festus Keyamo (SAN) were recipients of the “Visible Impact in Public Service Award.”
This year’s awards, dubbed “Defying the Odds”, NECA said, was geared towards promoting and encouraging best practices in Corporate Performance, People Management and Industrial Relations practices amongst employers in Nigeria.
This, it explained, was in a bid to celebrate outstanding contributions of enterprise to national development, noting that the award provided a platform for celebrating the resilience, doggedness and outstanding performance of employers in Nigeria.
In his welcome address, President of NECA, Dr. Ifeanyi Eric Okoye, noted that the award ceremony was to celebrate the excellence, resilience, innovation and unwavering commitment demonstrated by businesses across the various sectors of the Nigerian economy in 2024.
He said the Awards’ theme, “Defying the Odds,” reflected the indomitable spirit of the Nigerian enterprises that had consistently risen to the challenges posed by the dynamic and demanding local and global economic landscape.
Said he, “This annual ceremony is a testament to remarkable progress made by organisations that share our vision of a thriving private sector as the bedrock of national development. Over the years, the NECA’s Excellence Award has become a hallmark of prestige highlighting organisations that exemplify best practices in corporate governance, industrial relations and environmental sustainability.
“Our honours tonight do not only serve as a beacon of hope, and a reminder that in the face of adversities excellence is achievable, it is also an opportunity to increase visibility by highlighting their achievements and innovations to a wider audience.
“As we celebrate tonight, let us not only celebrate the achievements of the award recipients; let also celebrate all businesses here present and those that have left in the past few years and recommit ourselves to fostering innovation, inclusivity and resilience in all that we do. Together we can build a future where Nigerian enterprises thrive as global leaders.”
In the same vein, the Director General of NECA, Mr. Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, explained that the awards were a statement that, irrespective of the challenges the private sector employers have been facing “since January till now, there is time for all of us to sit down and just breathe and celebrate the resilience, doggedness, innovations your businesses were able to bring on-board and their contributions to national development”.
Oyerinde stated further: “So, we are gathered this evening to celebrate your businesses, contribution and support to NECA. We have broken away from the traditional issues of labour and employment that you know us with and are now dealing with all fundamental issues that affect your businesses either now or in the future like Environmental, Social and Governance in sustainability issues.
“We are also deepening our collaboration with CIPE moving into the realms of ethics with emphasis on doing business correctly. We are also deepening our engagements with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) in the context of responsible business conduct for our members to operate responsibly within the context of the law.
“This strengthens our hands to advocate against unfavourable business regulations that see businesses as cash cows rather than agents of national development.”
Lagos State Governor, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, represented by Head of Service, Lagos State, Mr. Shuaheeb Agoro, commended the NECA for its remarkable legacy of championing enterprise, competitiveness, responsible business practices and industrial harmony describing the award as another remarkable way of motivating employers in the private sector.
Sanwo-Olu said, “This year’s theme could not to be more apt as it speaks to the determination that Nigerian employers have continued to demonstrate in overcoming challenges to sustain businesses, create jobs and drive national development. This resilience is a reflection of enduring entrepreneurial spirit that defines our great nation.”
The governor pointed out that the award inspires the culture of best practices in corporate governance, industrial relations, environmental sustainability and responsible business conduct.”
Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, marking a strong performance compared to the 2.54% growth recorded during the same period in 2023 and 3.19% in Q2 2024, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The growth was largely fueled by the services sector, which expanded by 5.19% and contributed 53.58% to the overall GDP.
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“The performance of the GDP in the third quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the services sector,” the NBS stated in its report.
Key areas in this sector, including financial institutions, telecommunications, and trade, played significant roles in the economy’s growth.
The agriculture sector, while still positive, showed a slight slowdown, growing by 1.14%, compared to 1.30% in Q3 2023.
The industrial sector, however, posted a notable recovery, increasing by 2.18%, a marked improvement from the 0.46% recorded in the same quarter of 2023.
In nominal terms, Nigeria’s GDP at basic price for Q3 2024 reached N71.13 trillion, a substantial 17.26% increase from the N60.66 trillion recorded in Q3 2023.
“This performance is higher when compared to the third quarter of 2023, which recorded an aggregate GDP of N60,658,600.37 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth of 17.26%,” the NBS added.
The non-oil sector also showed strong performance, growing by 3.37% in real terms during Q3 2024, outperforming the 2.75% growth seen in the same quarter of 2023 and exceeding the 2.80% growth recorded in Q2 2024.
“The sector was driven in the third quarter of 2024 mainly by financial and insurance (financial institutions); information and communication (telecommunications); agriculture (crop production); transportation and storage (road transport); trade; and construction, accounting for positive GDP growth,” the NBS explained.
Despite the growth in the non-oil sector, its share of the total GDP decreased slightly to 94.43%, compared to 94.52% in Q3 2023, though it remained higher than 94.30% in Q2 2024.
The oil sector, in contrast, recorded a 5.17% year-on-year growth in Q3 2024, reversing the -0.85% decline seen in the same period in 2023.
However, growth slowed from the 10.15% recorded in Q2 2024. The NBS reported that Nigeria’s oil production averaged 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd) during the third quarter, a slight increase from 1.45 mbpd in Q3 2023 and 1.41 mbpd in Q2 2024.
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