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AfCTA: NCDMB provides roadmap to $3.4tn continental market

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By Modupe Asudo

The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board has outlined a practical framework for positioning Nigeria’s energy sector to access the African Continental Free Trade Area, following a strategic webinar focused on meeting rules-of-origin requirements for continental trade.

The Board held a pre-conference webinar on Wednesday ahead of the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit scheduled for Monday, February 9, 2026.

The engagement was attended by stakeholders from the oil and gas, power and renewable energy sectors, and they addressed how Nigerian products and services can qualify for preferential market access across 54 African countries with a combined gross domestic product of $3.4tn and a population of about 1.4 billion people.

NCDMB Charges Indigenous Companies On Compliance As Nigerian Content Level Hits 54% In 2022Entitled ‘Meeting AfCFTA Origin Requirements in Energy Trade’, the webinar focussed on one of the major barriers facing Nigerian exporters under AfCFTA — structuring production and operations to meet origin requirements that determine eligibility for duty-free and preferential trade.

The initiative was supported by the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe, and the Acting Director of Planning, Research and Statistics, Mr. Ene Ette, as part of preparations for the forthcoming Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, with the theme ‘Unlocking Africa’s Energy Future through AfCFTA: Trade, Innovation and Regional Integration’.

Speaking during the session, a communications analyst, Joseph Nwokedi, representing the Acting National Coordinator of Nigeria’s AfCFTA Coordination Office, Mrs Patience Okala, stressed the central role of energy in Africa’s economic integration under AfCFTA.

He urged Nigerian companies to shift their focus from Nigeria’s domestic market of about 200m people to the wider continental market of 1.4bn consumers.

“Without energy, there’s no industrialisation. Without energy, regional value chains remain aspirational,” Nwokedi said. “With AfCFTA, energy transforms from a domestic infrastructure issue into a tradable, investable and exportable sector within an integrated African market.”

He noted that even one per cent penetration of the African market translates to about 14m consumers, underscoring the scale of opportunity available to Nigerian energy firms.

The webinar identified four key pathways through which Nigeria’s energy sector can participate in AfCFTA-enabled trade. First, Nigeria’s Electricity Act of 2023 allows independent power producers to supply electricity directly to industrial clusters and export processing zones, positioning power generation as a foundation for trade-ready manufacturing.

Second, the country has submitted commitments under AfCFTA that enable professionals such as engineers, electricians, geophysicists and energy auditors to export services across Africa, subject to mutual recognition of qualifications.

Third, refined petroleum products, gas derivatives, electricity and renewable energy components can be traded across borders under preferential tariffs, provided they meet AfCFTA rules of origin.

Fourth, AfCFTA’s investment protocol, combined with recent domestic reforms, including the Presidential Directives on Investment Incentives for 2024–2025, strengthens Nigeria’s credibility for attracting cross-border investments in power generation, transmission, renewable energy and storage infrastructure.

Delivering a technical presentation, Assistant Comptroller of Customs, Burhan Sulaiman, explained that AfCFTA would eliminate tariffs on 90 per cent of goods traded within the bloc over five to 10 years, with an additional seven per cent liberalised over 13 years. However, he stressed that these benefits were conditional on meeting origin requirements.

“Companies lose benefits because origin was treated as an afterthought,” Sulaiman said. “You must build in origin compliance from the beginning, not while already running your project. Origin determines whether you export duty-free or pay full tariffs.”

He clarified that origin is determined by where economic production takes place, not by company ownership or registration. Foreign-owned companies producing in Nigeria can export as Nigerian origin, while Nigerian companies importing finished goods cannot claim AfCFTA preferences.

Sulaiman explained that products qualify for preferential access through two routes. “Wholly obtained” goods are entirely produced within AfCFTA member states, such as crude oil and natural gas extracted in Nigeria, as well as locally generated electricity regardless of fuel source.

The second route, “substantial transformation”, applies where foreign inputs are used and requires compliance with one of three tests: a change in tariff classification; a value-addition threshold limiting foreign content to between 30 and 60 per cent of ex-works price; or completion of specific prescribed processes such as distillation, cracking or reforming for petroleum products.

He provided sector-specific guidance, noting that in oil and gas, locally extracted crude and gas qualify, just as refined petroleum products that meet processing requirements. However, simple blending, basic distillation operations and modular refineries using imported crude without substantial transformation do not qualify.

In the power sector, he explained, locally generated electricity and regionally manufactured equipment with deep component transformation qualify, while installation-only activities, imported turbines, transformers and switchgear mounting do not.

“For renewables, regional solar cell and battery cell manufacturing with deep component processing qualify,” he said, adding that panel installation alone, simple module assembly and packaging imported batteries do not meet the thresholds.

Sulaiman warned that without regional manufacturing accumulation, power equipment exports fail origin tests.

According to him, the Nigeria Customs Service applies a five-step verification process for origin claims, including confirming accurate HS codes, reviewing production records, testing for minimal operations, verifying African input origins and ensuring consistency across certificates, production records and cost documentation.

“Weak documentation kills origin claims. Even genuinely originating products can be denied if documentation is incomplete or inaccurate,” he noted.

Both speakers emphasised that origin compliance should be treated as a core business strategy rather than a regulatory formality.

“Origin is not paperwork; it is strategy,” Sulaiman said. “It shapes where you locate facilities, how you source inputs, and where you sign regional contracts. Treat it as strategic from day one.”

Nwokedi urged Nigerian firms to act early. “AfCFTA is happening now. Early movers will shape supply chains, standards and partnerships. Are you going to lead, or simply follow?”

Officials also provided updates on AfCFTA implementation, noting that 92 per cent of rules of origin had been agreed, with negotiations ongoing in the textiles and automotive sectors.

An online dispute resolution mechanism has been established to coordinate Customs authorities, standards bodies and complainants.

Nigeria has deployed a fully operational electronic certification system for paperless trade, while Nigerian Customs is introducing risk-management frameworks that could allow exporter self-certification on commercial invoices.

Following a five-year implementation review led by the Minister of Industry and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, government sensitisation efforts have intensified through partnerships with the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture; Women’s Chambers of Commerce; zonal outreach programmes and ‘P3 engagements’ involving the press, private sector and public institutions.

“The government will not trade under AfCFTA — our exporters will,” officials said. “If they win, we win.”

Nigerian Customs also reiterated its open-door policy for pre-export origin verification to help businesses avoid delays and additional costs at the border.

The webinar highlighted Nigeria’s potential as a regional energy and transition-fuel hub, building on frameworks such as the West African Power Pool to support cross-border electricity trade.

Key recommendations included structuring projects for origin compliance from inception, forming regional joint ventures, aligning with continental standards and leveraging AfCFTA service commitments to export Nigerian energy expertise.

The session ended with confirmation that the webinar was a technical precursor to the Nigeria Local Content AfCFTA Energy Summit, which will convene policymakers, industry leaders and trade experts to develop strategies for maximising Africa’s energy potential under the AfCFTA framework.

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Dangote Refinery Pioneers Honeywell’s AI Technology

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) is set to become the first industrial facility to deploy Honeywell Technologies’ newly launched artificial intelligence platform, in a major technological advancement projected to deliver more than $60 million in annual gross operational benefits at full refining capacity.

The deployment of the platform, known as Forge Plant Cognition, will position the Lekki-based refinery at the forefront of AI-driven industrial operations, combining Honeywell Technologies’ process engineering expertise with NVIDIA’s artificial intelligence capabilities and Dell Technologies’ computing infrastructure to improve refining efficiency, maximise output and strengthen operational reliability. Announcing the development, Honeywell Technologies said the new platform would make its global debut at Dangote Refinery, one of the world’s largest refineries, as part of efforts to unlock greater value from existing industrial assets and transform how complex refining and petrochemical facilities are operated.

According to preliminary assessments, the technology could generate operational benefits exceeding 29 cents per barrel at the refinery. At full-capacity throughput, Honeywell estimates that the improvements could translate into more than $60 million in annual gross benefits. The company, however, clarified that the projection was specific to the Dangote facility, based on preliminary data and subject to actual operating conditions. The development represents another significant step in Dangote Refinery’s technological evolution, as the company moves beyond the construction and commissioning of a world-class industrial complex towards the deployment of advanced digital systems designed to maximise productivity, strengthen competitiveness and support its ambitious expansion programme.

READ ALSO: NALPGAM Preaches Innovation, Safety to LPG Operators

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of DPRP, David Bird, said the decision to adopt the technology reflected the refinery’s commitment to operational excellence, innovation and the development of Nigerian engineering talent.

“We chose Honeywell Technologies’ Forge Plant Cognition because the platform can deliver unrivaled industrial expertise combined with differentiated AI capabilities to help us optimize performance, unlock greater value from our operations and evolve how we operate our assets,” Bird said. “This investment reinforces our commitment to operational excellence, advancing technology and developing Nigerian talent to operate at world-class standards.”

Unlike conventional industrial monitoring systems that primarily analyse operating data and generate recommendations, Forge Plant Cognition is designed to integrate real-time plant information with engineering knowledge, advanced calculations, and physics-based models to identify operational constraints and support faster, more informed decisions. The technology will enable refinery engineers and operators to detect potential equipment and process problems before they escalate, identify bottlenecks affecting production and recommend corrective actions to improve throughput, product yields, and overall plant performance.

Honeywell explained that the platform would focus on three critical areas: identifying opportunities to improve refining margins, protecting production by reducing unplanned downtime, and making specialised engineering expertise more readily available to plant personnel. By combining these capabilities, the system is expected to help operators extract greater value from existing equipment while strengthening the reliability and efficiency of interconnected refining processes. Forge Plant Cognition would help transfer specialised process knowledge into AI-powered tools accessible to local engineers and operators, enabling them to solve complex problems more efficiently and develop advanced industrial capabilities. The initiative supports Dangote Refinery’s objective of building a workforce comprising more than 70 per cent Nigerians, while progressively reducing dependence on external technical expertise.

President of Honeywell Technologies UOP, Rajesh Gattupalli, described the collaboration with Dangote as a demonstration of the potential of artificial intelligence to transform large-scale industrial operations.

“Industrial plants are among the most complex operating environments in the world, with enormous potential to realize greater performance and value using digital technologies and connected solutions,” Gattupalli said. “By collaborating with Dangote to launch Forge Plant Cognition, we are demonstrating how AI can help transform industrial operations, driving new levels of productivity, reliability and profitability at significant scale.”

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Standard Chartered Inks Deal for Shell Gas Sale

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Standard Chartered says it acted as the sole financial adviser to Shell International Limited on the sale of Shell Nigeria Gas Limited to Vaaris Energy Limited, in a transaction expected to be completed in the first half of 2027.

The bank disclosed this in a statement announcing its advisory role in the transaction, which involves one of Nigeria’s leading gas distribution platforms.

Shell entered into an agreement to sell the business on 13 October, 2026, with the transaction expected to provide Vaaris Energy with an established gas infrastructure network serving industrial and commercial customers.

Shell Nigeria Gas provides gas supply solutions to businesses through its extensive distribution infrastructure, positioning the company to benefit from growing domestic gas demand.

READ ALSO: NALPGAM Preaches Innovation, Safety to LPG Operators

Standard Chartered explained that it provided strategic and financial advice throughout the transaction, managing the entire sale process, including transaction preparation and positioning, buyer engagement, deal structuring, negotiations, due diligence coordination and transaction documentation.

Commenting on the transaction, the Chief Executive Officer and Head of Coverage for Africa at Standard Chartered, Dalu Ajene, stated that Nigeria’s gas sector had an important role to play in supporting the country’s economic ambitions and meeting rising domestic energy demand.

“Nigeria’s gas sector has an important role to play in supporting the country’s economic ambitions and meeting growing domestic energy demand. Across Africa, investment in critical energy infrastructure is essential to unlocking industrial growth and long-term development, and this transaction demonstrates the role strategic investment can play in advancing that opportunity. At Standard Chartered, connecting our clients in Nigeria and across Africa to global capital and investors remains a priority. We are pleased to have supported Shell by bringing together the strength of our international network, deep local knowledge and sector expertise.”

The Head of Mergers and Acquisitions for Africa at Standard Chartered, Yemisi Deji-Bejide, said the transaction demonstrated the bank’s capacity to execute complex deals by combining international expertise with local market knowledge.

“We are proud to have advised Shell on the sale of one of Nigeria’s leading gas distribution platforms. As sole financial adviser, we brought together end-to-end M&A execution, deep sector expertise and strong buyer connectivity. This transaction demonstrates the strength of our Africa M&A franchise and our ability to combine global capabilities with local market insight to execute complex, strategically important transactions for our clients.”

The bank said the transaction supported Shell’s ongoing portfolio optimisation strategy while providing a platform for the continued development of Shell Nigeria Gas under Vaaris Energy.

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Tinubu Promises to Boost Local Production with NNPC Refineries

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Given the growing capacity of private refiners and their impact on local supplies, Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has assured of his government’s commitment to rehabilitating and repositioning Nigeria’s dormant national refineries.

Represented by the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Patience Oyekunle, at the 20th OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos, on Monday, Tinubu revealed his government’s priorities for the petroleum industry.

He made it clear that the facilities will not be allowed to become stranded investments.

Recall that three government refineries, including the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries, being managed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), have been moribund despite billions of naira spent on turnaround maintenance over the years.

READ ALSO: NUPRC Sets Revocation Date for Undeveloped Oil Licences

Speaking at OTL conference, Tinubu said the government was pursuing a more rigorous and commercially sustainable approach to the rehabilitation of the national refineries, with technical assessments, stronger partnerships and improved operational discipline expected to guide the process.

“At the same time, the government remains committed to ensuring that existing national refining assets are not allowed to become stranded investments.

“We are pursuing a more rigorous, commercially sustainable approach to the rehabilitation and repositioning of our refineries, supported by technical assessment, stronger partnerships, and improved operational discipline,“ she stated.

Tinubu emphasised that the objective is to ensure Nigeria refines more of its crude and a fuel supplier to other nations.

“Our objective is clear. Nigeria must first refine more of its crudes, create more value domestically, and become a reliable supplier of energy to Africa,” he said.

The President’s position comes as Nigeria seeks to increase domestic refining capacity and reduce its historical dependence on imported petroleum products, despite having substantial crude oil resources.

He said the country was transitioning from an industry historically characterised by import dependence and infrastructure constraints to one increasingly driven by domestic refining, private investment, market efficiency, value addition and regional competitiveness.

According to him, the reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) are intended to create a transparent, commercially viable and investment-friendly industry capable of delivering greater value to Nigerians.

“The reforms under the PIA are designed to create a petroleum industry that is transparent, commercially viable, investment-friendly, and capable of delivering value to Nigerians. Today, we are beginning to see the results,” he said.

Tinubu described the emergence of large-scale private refining capacity as an important turning point for Nigeria’s petroleum industry, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as a major development in the country’s ambition to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

He said the refinery had reached its nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, strengthening Nigeria’s prospects of supplying refined products to other African countries.

“The emergence of large-scale private refining capacity represents an important turning point. The Dangote Refinery has reached its 650,000-per-day main-plate capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s prospect of becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products and creating opportunities for regional supply,” he said.

The president said the government’s ambition extended beyond increasing crude oil production, stressing that Nigeria needed to develop an energy economy in which its petroleum resources would support industrialisation, manufacturing and other productive activities.

For decades, Nigeria exported crude oil while importing a substantial portion of the petroleum products required to power its economy. Tinubu said his administration wanted to change that pattern by retaining more value within the country through refining, petrochemicals, gas processing and other energy-intensive industries.

He said the government was also seeking to ensure that the country’s oil and gas resources translated into jobs, investment, technology and broader economic prosperity.

“Our commitment is therefore not to simply produce hydrocarbons. It is to create an ecosystem in which hydrocarbons catalyse industrialisation, jobs, investment, technology, and prosperity,” he said.

Tinubu also called on operators across the petroleum value chain to contribute more to domestic industrial development, particularly through investment in local content, technology, infrastructure and human capital.

He said industry stakeholders were expected to take greater responsibility for environmental protection and community development, warning that extracting resources without creating additional value was no longer consistent with the government’s expectations.

“To our industry stakeholders, I say, the era of extracting value without building value is changing. We expect greater investment in local content, technology, infrastructure, human capital, environmental responsibilities, and boost community development,” he said.

The president further urged investors to take advantage of opportunities in Nigeria’s petroleum industry, saying the country remained open to businesses with the technical competence and financial capacity to develop its oil and gas resources.

In his opening speech, the Chairman of the OTL Advisory Board, Adetunji Oyebanji, said Africa’s downstream petroleum industry had made significant progress since the organisation began in 2007, with developments in refining, logistics and market liberalisation expanding the continent’s capacity to meet its energy needs.

Oyebanji said the emergence of large-scale private refining in Nigeria, particularly the Dangote refinery, had changed the prospects for domestic petroleum supply and regional trade.

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