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Asia to reduce Dollar Dependency
TOKYO – Recent market volatility over expected U.S. monetary tightening has made Asia keenly aware of its reliance on the dollar, boosting efforts to use local currencies for trade and other transactions.On Tuesday, China and Singapore announced they would introduce direct trading between their currencies. Beijing also said it would allow Singapore-based investors to take yuan funds raised in the city-state and invest them in mainland securities markets.
Singapore follows in the footsteps of London – which gained so-called RQFII status last week – and Hong Kong. The move, designed to promote use of the yuan and broaden the investor base in China’s markets, builds on other measures taken recently that aim to reduce Asia’s dependence on the U.S. dollar.
Earlier this month China signed a 100 billion yuan ($16.4 billion) swap deal with Indonesia. It has existing pacts with Australia, South Korea and a number of European countries.
South Korea this month signed currency-swap agreements with Indonesia, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates worth around $20 billion. Officials say they’re considering more such deals, in addition to existing pacts with China and Japan.
Swap agreements – in which central banks pledge to provide each other with currency, usually on a short-term basis – often are enacted during periods of financial turmoil, but more recently have taken on a greater role in trade and diplomacy.The arrangements are small compared to use of the dollar for international transactions, which accounted for foreign-exchange turnover of around $4.65 trillion a day, or 87% of the global total, according to triennial survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements in April.
Still, the swap deals help insulate Asian currencies a bit from the whims of speculative investors, and make it more likely their movements will reflect trade needs or economic fundamentals.
For China, the latest deals are part of efforts to boost international use of the yuan and move closer to a fully convertible currency and an open capital account.
More broadly, the deals aim to boost bilateral trade and reduce associated costs by allowing central banks to buy currencies from each other, making it easier for commercial banks to get hold of foreign exchange.
But most pertinent, in light of this summer’s market turmoil, is their role in improving financial stability. A Korean official said last week that reduced dependence on the dollar would help the country better cope with market volatility caused by the greenback.The Chinese and Korean governments “want to avoid dollar concentration and diversify their portfolio structure. They will continue these efforts,” Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ strategist Takahiro Sekido said.
At a meeting in Brunei earlier this month, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told East Asian leaders it was imperative to strengthen the region’s financial safety arrangements by bolstering foreign exchange reserves and signing currency-swap deals. He also said China would work with other countries to look at using local currencies in East Asia’s crisis fund, the Chiang Mai Initiative.
A recent paper co-authored by Asian Development Bank Chief Economist Changyong Rhee found that wider use of the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen in international transactions would help Asia deal with local crises and curb its dependence on the dollar, bolstering the region’s economic stability.
In an interview ahead of the paper’s publication this month, Mr. Rhee told The Wall Street Journal that the Chiang Mai Initiative should consider diversifying its portfolio out of dollars to include yen and eventually yuan. But that can’t happen overnight, so greater use of Asian currencies for bilateral swaps, trade settlement and bond issuance are a good intermediate goal, he said.
Beijing began liberalizing the yuan in 2009 but capital flows into and out of China are still restricted, making it difficult for central banks to hold large quantities of reserves in yuan. Some Chinese officials have suggested opening the country’s capital account by 2020, though economists warn that moving too fast could lead to destabilizing outflows.
Some economists say that even the Japanese yen may not make an appropriate reserve currency.
Charles Adams, a visiting professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore and former International Monetary Fund official, says Japan would need to further increase the liquidity and openness of its financial markets and improve policy transparency for the yen to be an effective reserve currency.
“Since Japan is doing a big monetary experiment, I can’t imagine people would want to hold yen until it’s all over,” he said, referring to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic policy, which includes aggressive bond-buying by the Bank of Japan, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms.
The pull of market forces which moved the hands of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) to reduce the price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) to N880 per litre in Lagos and N935 in Abuja appears to be a source of torture to independent markets.
Biztellers reports that the latest price review on Easter Monday saw NNPC retail outlets in Lagos drop from N925 to N880, while those in Abuja adjusted from N950 to N935.
The NNPC Ltd’s price reduction came barely a week after the Dangote Refinery lowered its ex-depot price from N865 to N835 per litre.
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In addition, the $20bn refinery also directed its partners like MRS, Heyden, and Ardova to sell a litre of petrol at the rate of N890 instead of N920 in Lagos, N900 in the South West, N910 in the South-South, and N920 in the North East.
Consumers can smile because with the reaction, the NNPC Ltd’s new price in Lagos is N10 lower than what the Dangote Refinery is selling at, which might lead to another reaction, as the price war between the two companies.
Though some NNPC Ltd’s retail outlets were observed selling at the old rate in Lagos, it was gathered that they were given the liberty to exhaust old stock before adjusting to the new prices.
Market sources are of the view that the current price war was ignited by the Federal Government’s implementation of the Naira-for-crude policy.
Gold soared to a record high of $3,500 an ounce on Tuesday, as mounting fears over a potential U.S. recession and escalating tensions between President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve drove investors toward the traditional safe-haven asset.
The precious metal briefly touched an all-time high of $3,500.10 an ounce before retreating slightly to trade at $3,467.87.
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The rally marks the latest in a string of record-breaking gains for gold, fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar, sharp declines across global stock markets, and growing concerns over the health of the world economy.
Market sentiment took another hit this week after President Trump ramped up his trade war with China, slapping fresh tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy and intensifying fears of prolonged economic disruption.
Gold has surged more than 30 percent since the start of the year as investors seek refuge from mounting market volatility.
“The rally reflects ongoing recession fears in the U.S. economy and heightened political tensions, especially as President Donald Trump continues to attack Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell,” said Rania Gule, senior market analyst at trading group XS.com.
Concerns about the Fed’s independence were further stoked Monday, when Trump publicly lashed out at Powell on social media, branding him a “major loser” for not cutting interest rates — a move the president has repeatedly demanded.
The sharp criticism follows Trump’s recent suggestion that he might attempt to remove Powell from his post.
Klaus Schwab, the founder of the World Economic Forum (WEF), announced his resignation from the board on Monday, marking a significant moment in the organization’s history.
Schwab, who has been at the helm of the WEF for over five decades, confirmed he was stepping down from his position as Chair and leaving the Board of Trustees with immediate effect.
“I have decided to step down from the position of Chair and as a member of the Board of Trustees, with immediate effect,” Schwab said, noting that the decision comes as he approaches his 88th year.
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His resignation follows his stepping down as executive chairman in 2024, when former Norwegian foreign minister Borge Brende took over the day-to-day operations.
In response, WEF appointed Vice Chairman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe as interim chairman while a search committee was formed to find a permanent successor.
The WEF board lauded Schwab’s immense contributions, acknowledging his “outstanding achievements” over his 55-year leadership tenure.
“At a time when the world is undergoing rapid transformation, the need for inclusive dialogue to navigate complexity and shape the future has never been more critical,” the WEF stated.
“Building on its trusted role, the Forum will continue to bring together leaders from all sectors and regions to exchange insights and foster collaboration.”
Schwab, originally from Ravensburg, Germany, founded the precursor to the WEF, the European Management Forum, in 1971.
The first meeting drew fewer than 500 participants, but over the years, Schwab expanded the gathering into a prestigious platform that now attracts thousands of influential figures.
The Davos summit has become synonymous with global power brokers, offering opportunities for high-level networking, discussion, and collaboration on issues affecting the world.
Under Schwab’s leadership, the WEF grew to include regional meetings and established centers dedicated to pressing global topics such as cybersecurity, climate change, and financial systems.
The organization continues to uphold its mission of “improving the state of the world” by fostering dialogue and cooperation.
However, the WEF and Schwab have not been without their critics. Many argue that the forum has become a venue for corporate elites to exert influence over governments, with the term “Davos Man” often used to describe the affluent attendees.
Schwab has also faced the ire of conspiracy theorists, particularly following his promotion of the “Great Reset” following the COVID-19 pandemic.
These theorists have spread misinformation, alleging that Schwab and the WEF are part of a global elite aiming to control the world, with even Elon Musk weighing in on social media, claiming Schwab “wants to be emperor of Earth.”
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