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Asian markets start nervous, set for tense day amid Fed angst

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SYDNEY – Asian markets were off to a nervous start on Thursday as never- ending speculation about the fate of U.S. stimulus lifted bond yields while helping the dollar pare losses against the yen.

Early attention will be on Japan’s Nikkei after it suffered the biggest one-day fall in six weeks on Wednesday, a day after hitting a six-year closing high. The Nikkei .N225 ended down 2.2 percent, but was still up 48 percent for the year so far.

Nikkei futures were trading at a slight discount on Thursday, suggesting a soft start was possible. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was flat in early trade.

There was nothing but indecision out of Wall Street where the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI edged down 0.16 percent, while the S&P 500 .SPX eased 0.13 percent.

ASIAN STOCKShares had taken a hit after a strong reading on private hiring led to speculation that payrolls could also be upbeat and perhaps hasten the day when the Federal Reserve starts trimming its asset buying. <TOP/CEN>

Other data on services and housing was more mixed, but the risk was enough to send 10-year Treasury yields about 7 basis points higher on Wednesday to 2.84 percent.

Ironically, a sustained increase in long-term yields is exactly what the Fed is trying to avoid, so the rise argues against a start of tapering at this month’s policy meeting.

The lift in yields helped the U.S. dollar regain ground on the yen to stand at 102.37 early Thursday, up from a low of 101.82.

A major mover was the Canadian dollar which sagged to 3-1/2-year lows after the Bank of Canada issued a dovish policy statement, highlighting the risks of undesirably weak inflation.

The euro was steady at $1.3590, having bounced from a trough of $1.3527 on Wednesday. Service sector data had showed activity in Italy and France contracting in November but expanding in Spain and Germany, highlighting the divergence in the bloc.

There was more good news for Spain as Moody’s upgraded its credit outlook to stable from negative, citing a rebalancing of and a brighter medium-term view for the country’s economy.

Investors were now looking ahead of a policy meeting by the European Central Bank. While the consensus is that the central bank will not announce any new measures, markets are nervous having been taken off guard by November’s rate cut.

“We think the Refi rate, the deposit rate, and the forward guidance will be kept unchanged,” said Philippe Gudin, an analyst at Barclays. “The focus will be on the presentation of staff projections for 2014 and 2015, and in particular on inflation forecasts.”

If the region’s recovery continues, the ECB may be done easing for this cycle.

“Should economic activity fail to gain momentum or deflation concerns materialize, we think further monetary easing would be decided,” added Gudin. “Although this is not our baseline scenario, we think the probability is non-negligible.”

In commodity markets, spot gold was holding at $1,242.89 an ounce having bounced 1.7 percent on Wednesday.

U.S. crude added another 12 cents to $97.32 on top of a 1.2 percent rally on Wednesday after data showed domestic crude stocks fell by 5.6 million barrels, snapping 10 straight weeks of builds.

Going the other way, Brent crude finished down 97 cents on Wednesday at $111.65 a barrel after initially rising to the highest since September 12 at $113.02.

– REUTERS

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OPEC+ Hikes Oil Production Quotas, Silent on UAE Pull-out

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Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates.

The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of “their collective commitment to support oil market stability”, according to a statement published by OPEC+.

The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal.

Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE’s departure was a sign of tense relations.

Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted.

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“By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon said.

Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Remains
But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.
Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.

Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send “a two-layer message” that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war.

“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter’s production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.

“Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday’s meeting.

Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.

Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.

‘A Big Deal’
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, described the UAE’s exist as “a big deal” for OPEC.

Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, Bakr told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.

The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 — far above the country’s last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.

ADNOC also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is “accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy”.

There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.

AFP

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Shareholders Laud NGX Group at 65th AGM

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Shareholders of Nigerian Exchange Group Plc (NGX Group) have commended the Board and Management for the Group’s performance and strategic direction, urging continued focus on growth and long-term value creation.

At the Group’s 65th Annual General Meeting (AGM), shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, alongside key resolutions including a final dividend of ₦2.00 per share, a one-for-three bonus share issue, and the corresponding increase in share capital. The re-election of Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Board of Directors, Dr. Okechukwu Itanyi, Independent Non-Executive Director and Mrs. Ojinika Olaghere, Independent Non-Executive Director reinforced continuity in governance and oversight.

They acknowledged the Group’s disciplined execution and its role in strengthening the Nigerian capital market, noting that recent developments reflect a more structured and better-regulated market environment.

Speaking during the meeting, the President, New Dimension Shareholders Association, Patrick Ajudua, commended the leadership of the Group for delivering a strong financial outcome, noting that the results reflect both improved market conditions and deliberate strategic execution. “The numbers speak to a business that is gaining strength and direction,” he said.

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Similarly, the Chairman of the Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Boniface Okezie, lauded the Group’s commitment to innovation and infrastructure development. “The market is becoming more forward-looking, supported by strong leadership at the Group level. Initiatives around market infrastructure and participation are yielding results, and this is positive for investors,” he noted.

Commenting during the AGM, Chairman of NGX Group, Umaru Kwairanga, appreciated shareholders for their continued support and reaffirmed the Board’s commitment to sustainable value delivery. He said, “The progress recorded reflects the strength of the Group’s strategy and the performance of its operating businesses. As a Board, our responsibility is to ensure disciplined oversight, uphold strong governance standards, and position NGX Group to deliver sustainable, long-term value to shareholders.”

Temi Popoola, group managing director/chief executive officer, focused on execution priorities, noting that the Group is positioning for scale. He said, “This next phase is about deepening momentum. Our priority is to scale infrastructure, broaden participation, and unlock new pathways for capital formation.”

The meeting reflected strong shareholder confidence in NGX Group’s leadership, with the Group reaffirming its commitment to playing a central role in the evolution of Nigeria’s capital market while delivering sustained returns to investors.

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S’Leone Inks $225m Offshore Oil Deal with Nigeria’s Marginal Energy

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Sierra Leone has announced the signing of a petroleum licence agreement with Nigeria‑based ​Marginal Energy Limited, granting the company offshore exploration ‌and production rights as the government seeks to revive interest in its under‑explored upstream sector.

The licence, signed through the ​Petroleum Directorate of Sierra Leone (PDSL), covers offshore ​blocks G‑145, G‑146, G‑147, G‑160 and G‑161, spanning ⁠about 6,800 square kilometres, according to a government ​statement, a Reuters report said.

Marginal Energy, a Nigerian independent, has committed to ​a seismic and drilling programme with exploration spending expected to exceed $225 million.

Under the agreement, the state will hold a 10 percent ​carried interest in oil projects and 5 percent in ​gas during exploration and development, with an option to acquire an ‌additional ⁠participating interest on a paid basis of up to 9 percent once production begins.

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The deal was signed at the Invest in African Energy conference in Paris, ​where Sierra ​Leone has been ⁠promoting offshore licensing opportunities to international investors, the report added.

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