The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to face one of its most dicey policy decisions in months with easing global oil prices following the United States-Iran ceasefire being made worse by persistent domestic inflationary pressures, a report from SBM Intelligence said on Wednesday.

The ceasefire agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices, with Brent crude falling from a peak of about $114 per barrel to nearly $101 per barrel.

The development has eased fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions and raised expectations of moderation in fuel and transport costs across oil-importing economies.

For Nigeria, however, the policy implications are far more complex, the SBM report titled; ‘The Persian Trap Aftermath: Has West Africa Escaped a Deeper Crisis?’ said.

During the conflict, rising oil prices pushed petrol pump prices from around N830 per litre to as high as N1,325, while diesel prices climbed above N1,550 per litre, worsening transport costs and food inflation.

The resulting price shocks, the firm said, contributed to a sustained rise in consumer prices and complicated the CBN’s inflation-fighting efforts.

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Data from SBM Intelligence showed that 82.7 percent of traders surveyed across major Nigerian cities reported price increases linked directly to the conflict, while 76.4 percent experienced significant increases in transportation costs.

Headline inflation rose to 15.93 percent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, while food inflation stood at 16.96 percent year-on-year (y/y).

The SBM Jollof Index, which tracks the cost of preparing a standard family-sized pot of jollof rice, reached N30,435 in April, 19.4 percent from N25,486 six months earlier, before easing slightly to N29,800 as of early June.

Against this backdrop, the MPC maintained the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 percent throughout the conflict, prioritising exchange-rate stability, foreign investor confidence and inflation control, according to its chairman, Olayemi Cardoso.

Hence, SBM Intelligence says the committee now faces a difficult balancing act.

According to the research and strategic communications consulting firm, with oil prices retreating and the immediate supply shock fading, pressure may grow on policymakers to begin discussing a gradual easing cycle to support economic activity and reduce borrowing costs for businesses and households.

The firm warned that premature rate cuts could undermine recent gains in inflation management, particularly given lingering uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire agreement and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

“We urge caution even so. Mine-clearance in the strait will take weeks, shipping backlogs at alternative ports need resolution, and the terms of the agreement may still “inject unease and uncertainty” if ratification stalls.

The IMF has welcomed the ceasefire but underlined that the risk of fresh energy disruptions remains elevated, particularly given the unresolved posture of Houthi forces in Yemen and the absence of any normalisation framework between Iran and Israel.

So the challenge ahead for the MPC is to engineer a measured easing cycle as global prices fall, without triggering renewed inflation if the ceasefire breaks down or if the US–Iran agreement stalls in ratification. This requires close monitoring of Hormuz mine-clearance progress and the resumption curve of Iranian export volumes”, the report said.

SBM Intelligence stressed that the situation highlights structural weaknesses within Nigeria’s economy. According to the firm, despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products, domestic fuel pricing remains heavily exposed to international crude benchmarks.

It said that beyond inflation, lower oil prices could create fresh fiscal challenges for the government by reducing projected oil revenues at a time when public finances remain under pressure.

The report concluded that while the ceasefire has delivered welcome relief to global markets and Nigerian consumers, inflation remains above comfort levels, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continues to cast a shadow over the economic outlook.

“The ceasefire offers a narrow window for West Africa to build resilience. Strategic fuel reserves and fertiliser buffer stocks, financed through import levies and distributed through market associations, would protect traders from future shocks.

Regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area must be accelerated to develop overland corridors as alternatives to Middle Eastern maritime routes. Investment in solar and off-grid energy is no longer a luxury but a commercial necessity.

The underlying vulnerabilities are unchanged: import dependence, thin fiscal buffers and exposure to chokepoints beyond West African control. The ceasefire is a diplomatic achievement, but the structural realignment of global trade that the war accelerated will persist. Another shock will come”, it said.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) reaffirmed commitment to nurturing the next generation of African engineers, innovators, and industrial leaders, when it hosted outstanding students from the Federal University of Technology, Owerri (FUTO) on an educational tour.

The visit was in fulfilment of a promise made by the President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, during the university’s 37th Public Lecture, where he pledged to expose exceptional students to world-class industrial operations. The initiative is aimed at bridging the gap between academic learning and real-world industry experience.

Led by the Vice Chancellor of FUTO, Prof Nnenna Oti, the delegation comprised top-performing students drawn from engineering, technology, and entrepreneurship disciplines.

Speaking during an interactive session with the students, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, David Bird, described the facility as a compelling demonstration of how innovation, advanced technology, and private sector investment can drive economic transformation while opening up opportunities for young Africans.

According to Bird, the refinery, widely regarded as the world’s largest single-train refinery, represents the peak of technological sophistication on the African continent.

“There is no better showcase of modern technology than the refinery that Alhaji Aliko Dangote has built here,” he said.

“What we have created is one of the world’s youngest, most modern, energy-efficient, highly automated, and data-rich refineries. It is also contributing to the decarbonisation of the oil and gas value chain while delivering cleaner fuels to Nigeria and West Africa.”

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He emphasised that exposure to facilities of this scale is critical to reshaping perceptions about Africa’s industrial sector.
“I am incredibly inspired by the curiosity, passion, and enthusiasm shown by these students. They are seeing first-hand that this industry is dynamic, innovative, and offers rewarding long-term career opportunities for highly skilled professionals,” Bird added.

He further disclosed that the refinery plans to deepen collaboration with universities and research institutions, particularly in emerging fields such as renewable energy and sustainable fuel technologies.

“Our objective is to stay closely aligned with universities, understand the research they are undertaking, and identify opportunities to support the commercialisation of innovative ideas. There are exciting developments around biofuels and other technologies shaping the future of energy,” he said.

In her remarks, Professor Oti described the visit as a transformative and life-changing experience for the students, noting that it aligns with ongoing efforts to strengthen partnerships between academia and industry.
She explained that the students were personally invited by Aliko Dangote following his lecture at the university earlier in the year.

“At the end of his lecture, he invited 15 female and 15 male students to visit his refinery and factories in Lagos as special guests. This was part of his vision to inspire the next generation, and today stands as a fulfilment of that promise,” she said.

According to the Vice Chancellor, the initiative provides a rare platform for students to connect classroom knowledge with practical industrial applications.

“This is what I describe as an Ivory Tower–Industry Partnership. There is no more effective way to bridge the gap between theory and practice than by exposing students to facilities of this scale,” she said. “These are some of our best students across mechanical, chemical, petroleum and software engineering, as well as entrepreneurship. This experience will undoubtedly broaden their horizons, expand their ambitions, and shape their future careers.”

She added that the visit underscores the transformative impact of visionary African entrepreneurship in driving industrialisation and economic growth.

For many of the students, the tour offered a unique opportunity to see firsthand the technologies and systems they had previously encountered only in theory.

A 500-level Mechanical Engineering student, Amadi Ijeoma Winfrey, described the experience as both enlightening and inspiring.

“The experience has been amazing,” she said. “Seeing the practical application of equipment such as pumps, compressors, and turbines has helped bridge the gap between theory and reality.”

She noted that witnessing the scale and sophistication of the refinery has strengthened her aspirations for a career in engineering and industrial development.

Similarly, a 500-level Chemical Engineering student, Israel Ifanyichukwu, described the visit as transformative, noting that it provided valuable insight into how classroom theories are applied on an industrial scale. He said the experience has not only broadened his perspective but also equipped him with knowledge he intends to apply in his academic and professional pursuits.

Also speaking, Professor Abraham Ngwuta, Director of the Centre for Entrepreneurial Studies, and Professor Chikwendu Emenike Orji, Dean of Students Affairs, described Aliko Dangote as a model entrepreneur whose diverse investments across critical sectors highlight the power of vision, discipline, and long-term value creation. They noted that his industrial footprint offers a practical framework for students to understand entrepreneurship as a driver of national development, job creation, and economic transformation.

The visit forms part of Dangote Industries’ broader commitment to advancing education, innovation, and skills development, as well as preparing a new generation of professionals capable of driving Africa’s industrial transformation.

The Dangote Cement Plc, Ibese Plant has reinforced its commitment to food security and Sustainable Community development with the roll-out of its 2026 annual farmers’ empowerment initiative, providing free agricultural inputs and capacity-building training to farmers drawn from its 17 host communities.

The programme, which has become a cornerstone of the company’s social investment strategy, saw beneficiaries receive modern farming inputs alongside technical training aimed at improving crop yield, productivity, and income across the agricultural value chain with each of the 60 farmers receiving Three bags of 50kg NPK fertilizer; Two bags of Urea fertilizer; One Knapsack sprayer and Ten litres of Force-Up herbicide.

Welcoming the guests and beneficiaries, the Plant Director, Ayyagari Subbaraidu emphasized that the programme was designed not only to support local farmers but to build a sustainable agricultural ecosystem within the company’s host communities. He noted that the intervention aligns with Dangote Cement’s broader corporate social responsibility priorities, which include empowerment, education, health, and infrastructure development.

He said the programme was meant to provide Dangote Cement’s support to “men and women whose labour sustains our food systems and contributes immensely to the well-being of our communities, and the society at large therefore aligns with the yearnings of Government. Your presence despite the public holiday reflects your commitment to agricultural development and the prosperity of our communities.

“At Dangote Cement, we understand that while we manufacture cement for the construction of homes, schools, hospitals, roads, and other critical infrastructure, true development is ultimately about people. It is about creating opportunities, improving livelihoods, and enabling communities to thrive. This philosophy remains at the heart of our operations and our relationship with our host communities.

“This marks the fifth consecutive edition of our Farmers Empowerment Programme at Ibese Plant. It represents five years of consistent engagement, meaningful investment, and a shared commitment to improving livelihoods across our host communities. The initiative has evolved into one of the most impactful interventions under our community development efforts.

“To date, 300 farmers across our host communities have benefited from training, farm inputs, and agricultural tools. Together, the beneficiaries have cultivated more than 800 acres of farmland and produced over 40,000 tons of agricultural output. These figures tell an important story, representing families whose livelihoods have improved, children whose educational needs have been supported, businesses that have grown, and communities that have become more resilient. They demonstrate what can be achieved when communities and corporate organizations work together toward a common goal.

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According to him, the free distribution of farming inputs, including fertilizers, herbicides, and other essential tools, is a deliberate effort to reduce the burden on farmers and equip them with the resources needed for modern agricultural practices. “We provide modern farm inputs to support our farmers to enhance productivity and achieve better yields. This is not just about distribution; it is about enabling a shift to more efficient and sustainable farming methods that will ultimately boost food production and livelihoods,” he said.

He further explained that the training component of the programme is critical in ensuring that beneficiaries maximize the value of the inputs provided. Participants were taken through practical sessions on good agricultural practices, including crop protection and pest management techniques, equipping them with knowledge to mitigate farming risks and improve output.

The event also featured remarks by representatives of the host communities, who commended Dangote Cement for its consistent investment in grassroots development. Speaking on behalf of the communities, a representative described the programme as a “game changer” that has not only boosted food production but also strengthened the relationship between the company and its host communities.

In their responses, beneficiaries of the programme expressed profound appreciation for the intervention, describing it as timely and impactful, especially in the face of rising input costs and climate-related farming challenges.

One of the farmers, Mr. Akanbi Moses from Aga-Olowo Community noted that the provision of free inputs and training has significantly improved their productivity and income levels, enabling them to scale their farming activities. Another beneficiary highlighted how the training sessions have enhanced their understanding of modern farming techniques, resulting in better crop management and reduced post-harvest losses.

Also speaking, Chairman of Yewa North Local Government, who was represented at the event by Hon. Segun Ableto, lauded the initiative, describing it as a model of effective public-private partnership in driving rural development. The representative commended Dangote Cement for complementing government efforts in boosting agricultural production and enhancing food security within the region.

He encouraged the beneficiaries to make judicious use of the inputs and knowledge acquired, stressing that the success of the programme ultimately depends on their commitment to applying the training in their farming activities.

Chairman, Communities Joint Consultative Committee, Comrade Dayo Ogunyinka expressed the appreciation of the people to the management of Dangote Cement for sustaining the initiative, which has become a major support system for farmers across our communities, saying “This programme has continued to improve the lives of our people. It has strengthened our farmers’ capacity and deepened the relationship between Dangote Cement and our communities.”

Industry observers have noted that Dangote Cement’s farmers’ empowerment initiative has consistently contributed to stimulating local economies, creating opportunities for farmers, and strengthening food systems in host communities.

The programme forms part of Dangote Cement’s Community Development Agreement (CDA), which underscores its commitment to fostering socio-economic development and maintaining harmonious relationships with its host communities through targeted and impactful interventions.

Over the years, the Ibese Plant has continued to roll out various empowerment initiatives for different segments of the population, including youths, women, and artisans, reinforcing its philosophy that host communities remain key partners in progress.