Energy
At GOCOP Confab: Liyel Imoke says alleged expenditure of a phantom $16b delayed Nigeria’s power sector reforms
Imoke, who was also Chairman of the Power Sector Technical Board under the Obasanjo administration, stated this as a matter of fact in his keynote at the 8th Annual Conference of the Guild of Corporate Online Publishers (GOCOP), themed: “Nigeria: Tackling insecurity, power deficit, and transitioning to digital economy.”
Admitting that the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA), as it then was, was a monopoly, he said that electricity distribution was also a monopoly even as the execution of so many programmes faced various challenges.
He referred to the undue delay in implementation of the power sector reforms, which resulted from the probe of the claim of a phantom expenditure of $16 billion on the sector under the administration.
According to him: “The power sector probe took about two years. The delay led to huge cost overruns; doubling costs of various contracts awarded during my tenure. Several of these projects were delayed in completion. As we speak, we still have several IPP projects that are ongoing.”
He said that at the end of the probe, they found out that there was no missing $16b, but lamented that the alleged expenditure of the phantom $16b had been used as a political tool to criticize “those of us in government.”
Imoke fingered inadequate information as the trigger for the allegation, pointing out that, for instance, on his watch as Minister of Power, the actual spending was between $2b and $3b, much of which went to the original electric manufacturer.
The former power minister said that insecurity, power deficit, and the slowness in Nigeria’s transition to a full digital economy were challenges impeding national growth and development.
According to him: “These are challenges that impede our growth as a nation. They make us less globally competitive. If you look at electricity insecurity and digital economy and if we tackle these, we will be on our way to economic growth.”
He said to unlock Nigeria’s potential, the administration must tackle insecurity, noting that there had been insurgency and the emergence of Boko Haram, which split into ISWAP.
“We have experienced banditry, kidnapping, armed killings, mass kidnapping, and illegal mining. These days, we can’t go to a gathering of this magnitude without seeing someone who had been kidnapped before. This is one of our new realities,” he stated.
He implicated ethnic tension as a contributory cause of communal violence, adding that grievances in the Niger Delta caused a lot of insecurity in the region in the 2000s.
Imoke spoke about organized private crimes in the Gulf of Guinea, which created insecurity in the area and the separatist marginalization in the southeast region, leading to agitation
He stated that, for instance, between 2009 and 2020, insurgency by Boko Haram alone resulted in over 40,000 deaths.
Imoke listed poverty, high unemployment rate, which was in 1999 put at six per cent, in 2022 put at 22 per cent but which as of today is approaching 40 per cent, weak governance and corruption as well as climate change, as some of the factors that contributed or fuelled insecurity in the country.
He also listed proliferation of small arms and violent crimes across the country as a sore thumb, lamenting that there were more arms with some non-state actors put in their hands by desperate politicians and which at the end of elections, were not retrieved from them and on which they now depended to survive.
Saying that hope was not lost, Imoke declared that successive administrations had succeeded in degrading Boko Haram and recovering territories in the Northeast hitherto seized by the group.
According to him, “The military was able to degrade the group and reclaim the areas in the Northeast around Maiduguri.”
He listed other successes as the decrease in Boko Haram insurgency and deaths by 23 per cent according to the global terrorism index, adding that “there is also reduction of militancy in the Niger Delta as there is no more MEND in the region.”
He continued: “Oil production has significantly rebounded until recently because during the era of MEND, oil production dropped below 1.5 m barrels per day.
“There is anti-piracy measure launched through NIMASA and international collaborators to reduce the piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. Piracy decreased by 58 per cent between 2020 and 2021 in the Gulf of Guinea.
“In the Southeast, the arrest of Nnamdi Kanu is an achievement in the region…Nigerian government has increased its surveillance measures; its counter insurgency operation has been used in combating terrorism. We now have drone technology and others to attack security issues across the board. The persistent Boko Haram issue has been watered down, but there is a humanitarian issue. About 2.7m people have been affected. The UN said that 350,000 people have died as a result of insurgency.”
He, however, noted that Herder-farmers’ conflict was still ongoing, pointing out that over 2,600 people were reportedly killed in 2021 alone.
The former Cross River State governor said that continued separatist agitation had led to the death of police officers as well as IPoB members, adding that there had been extra judicial killings and arbitrary arrests, among others.
He said a multifaceted approach was required to effectively tackle security issues in Nigeria, recommending among others community policing, which should be legally regulated, deployment of vigilance groups in securing the communities, and giving consideration to decentralisation of security rather than centralisation that has not worked.
He also established a nexus between security and economy, arguing that “until we can address the state of our economy, we will not able to address security issues effectively.”
He stated that education, skill acquisition, entrepreneurship training, and access to SMES funding were key, adding that a strong and comprehensive rural development programme was necessary to address banditry and farmer-herder conflicts.
“I am a strong believer in peace and mediation. If the government can establish dialogue platforms between farmers and herders, it would reduce competition over land,” he said.
He also said that the procurement process must be transparent and resources should be deployed in the welfare and training of security personnel, adding that the nation’s judicial system must be able to tackle impunity.
While dwelling on power deficit, Imoke said that there was a lack of continuation of policies and programmes, pointing out that “your predecessor is your most valuable material. We always assume that our predecessor did not know anything, and there is a tendency to want to start afresh. It is important for me to always go back to my predecessor to ask for guidance.”
Admitting that electricity problem in Nigeria is the most humongous problem ever, Imoke said that with over 200 million Nigerians, the country’s installed capacity was like 13,000 megawatts. He said: “It sounds like good news, but we only manage to distribute an average of 4,000 megawatts whereas there are potential distributable 20,000 megawatts.”
He reeled out some sobering comparative statistics about per capita electricity consumption by Nigeria and some countries on the African continent based on recent data.
According to the data referred to by Imoke, “Nigeria per capita electricity consumption is between 150 and 200 kilowatts hours per year (kilowatts hour is the amount of electricity delivered to each household in the country in a year); Ghana is between 800 and 1000 kilowatts hour per year; South Africa is between 4000 and 5000 kilowatts hours per year while Ivory coast is between 500 and 600 kilowatts hour per year.”
Imoke lamented the Nigerian situation, adding that “these tell you the strengths of industrial bases of these countries.”
He, however, noted that despite numerous reforms in Nigeria, the power sector had continued to struggle.
Imoke asked if there was a solution in the face of growing demand? He resolved the question somewhat in the negative, pointing out that with the exponential growth in Nigerian’s population, there was a concomitant rising demand on the electricity supply.
On the transitioning to digital economy, Imoke said the growth in e-commerce platforms like Jumia and others was allowing for competition and efficiency.
According to him: “We are in the fourth industrial revolution, and it is a digital revolution. We missed out on the first, second, and third industrial revolutions. It is for us now as a nation, with a deliberateness of government policy, not to lose out on the fourth industrial revolution.
“All the three sectors-security, power and digital economy – are critical to our growth. The three are intertwined challenges that Nigerian must address to unlock her potential.
“With the collective effort of all, Nigerian can truly emerge as a global leader. Let us seize this moment to build a secure, electrified, and digitalized Nigerian that offers prosperity, growth, and development to all.”
A call has gone to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) the members of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) to start participating in the next oil block licensing round as a strategic option for securing affordable crude feedstock for their refineries.
The Chief Executive, NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, made the on Wednesday during a courtesy visit by members of CORAN to the Commission’s headquarters in Jabi, Abuja, where both parties held discussions on strengthening domestic refining capacity, crude supply sustainability, and collaboration between upstream producers and local refiners.
According to Eyesan greater participation of indigenous refiners in upstream asset ownership would help create more stable and commercially viable crude supply arrangements, while also deepening local participation across the petroleum value chain.
She further assured members of CORAN that Nigeria has sufficient crude resources to support domestic refining ambitions and reiterated the Commission’s commitment to promoting policies that prioritize in-country value addition.
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Eyesan therefore encouraged refinery operators to enter into long-term crude supply contracts with producers as a practical mechanism for ensuring predictable feedstock availability, operational planning, and pricing stability.
The NUPRC Chief however, acknowledged that infrastructure limitations must be tackled before the country can witness seamless crude supply to local refineries. She identified issues such as inadequate pipeline networks, evacuation bottlenecks, storage constraints, marine logistics, and other supply chain gaps as areas requiring urgent investment and coordinated action.
Members of CORAN used the visit to commend the Commission’s ongoing regulatory reforms and its support for domestic refining development, while also emphasizing the need for stronger implementation of frameworks that guarantee regular crude supply to local plants.
Industry stakeholders have increasingly argued that improved access to crude feedstock remains central to reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, strengthening energy security, conserving foreign exchange, and creating jobs through the growth of local refining capacity.
The meeting is seen as another step in ongoing engagements between regulators and private refinery operators aimed at unlocking the full potential of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
Nigeria’s gas industry supplied 62 percent of gas produced to foreign markets in the first quarter of 2026, though the domestic demand remained largely unmet.
This was detailed in data from factsheets by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), an average of 4.832 bscf/day was produced during the quarter but allocations increasingly skewed toward exports — leaving power generation, industries, and households under pressure.
The factsheet showed that while production remained relatively stable — January (4.837 bscf/day), February (4.771 bscf/day), and March (4.888 bscf/day) — domestic utilization steadily weakened as export demand intensified.
In contrast, average daily gas supplied to the domestic market dropped to 1.906 bscf/day in January, 1.763 bscf/day in February, and 1.855 bscf/day in March, indicating that the local market is increasingly treated as a balancing segment — absorbing cuts whenever export demand rises.
At the center of this shift is the Nigeria LNG Limited, which saw gas supply to its six operational trains rise consistently from 2.931 bscf/day in January to 3.018 bscf/day in February and 3.033 bscf/day in March.
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By March, NLNG alone accounted for about 62% of total gas exports, significantly tightening volumes available for domestic use.
The factsheet showed that sharp decline in gas allocations to thermal power plants nationwide is driven primarily by allocation and offtake decisions rather than any underlying supply shortage.
Gas-to-power supply declined sharply by 25% within one quarter, dropping from 0.648 bscf/day in January to 0.536 bscf/day in February and 0.485 bscf/day in March.
This contraction directly correlates with persistent grid instability and electricity shortfalls nationwide witnessed during the quarter.
Average daily gas supply to industrial users remained largely flat — 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March — indicating that constraints on manufacturing and petrochemical output stem less from infrastructure limitations and more from inconsistent allocation of gas.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s cooking gas market tipped into deficit.
Supply, which stood at 5,110 MT/day in January and 4,703 MT/day in February, failed to keep pace with demand in March, where 4,726 MT/day supply lagged behind 5,122 MT/day consumption, resulting in an approximately 400 MT/day shortfall.
This tightening supply to demand balance has sustained high retail prices, which ranges from N950/kg to N1,550/kg during the quarter, thereby forcing many households to revert to alternative fuels such as charcoal and firewood.
Commercial gas supply showed moderate volatility, rising from 0.573 bscf/day in January to 0.628 bscf/day in February, before easing to 0.601 bscf/day in March, showing uncertainty in supply planning for commercial users — particularly in emerging segments such as CNG-based transportation.
In contrast, supply to gas-based industries — including fertilizer, petrochemicals, and manufacturing — remained largely flat at 0.431 bscf/day in January, 0.440 bscf/day in February, and 0.430 bscf/day in March, pointing to stagnation in industrial feedstock availability.
This suggests that constraints are driven less by processing capacity and more by inconsistent and unreliable gas allocation.
Despite the Petroleum Industry Act’s intent to safeguard domestic supply through delivery obligations, findings indicate these commitments are increasingly being sidelined, as export-oriented allocations take precedence.
On the export front, combined flows through NLNG and the West African Gas Pipeline averaged about 0.156 bscf/day in Q1, reinforcing the steady outward push.
The LNG shipments alone grew by 6.4%, rising from 52,857 MT/day in January to 56,241 MT/day in March, outpacing every domestic segment.
The Dangote Refinery supplied about 72.3 percent of Nigeria’s total domestic demand for petrol in March, while consumption fell by approximately 17 percent during the period under consideration from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres last month.
Besides, although still modest compared to last year’s massive importation, the share of petrol imports in the supply mix surged by 96.7 percent month-on-month, rising from 3 million litres per day to 5.9 million litres/day during the period.
Data from the March 2026 fact sheet on midstream and downstream petroleum operations provided by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) yesterday, showed that the 47.3 million litres per day consumption for march fell below the national average of 50 million litres per day.
Overrall, the data indicated that total domestic petrol supply stood at 34.2 million litres per day in March. When measured against total consumption of 47.3 million litres per day, this placed Dangote Refinery’s contribution at approximately 72.3 percent of the domestic market, reaffirming its dominant role in the country’s fuel supply chain.
However, the supply mix also reflected a sharp increase in the role of imports. The fact sheet showed that petrol import contribution rose from 3 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, equivalent to a 96.7 percent jump in import share.
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However, this increase in imported petrol between February and March was despite the downstream regulator’s insistence that it has halted the issuance of import licenses to oil marketers for months.
For over a year, owner of the 650,000 barrels per day facility in Lagos, Aliko Dangote, has pushed to end petrol imports in order to, according to him, protect local refining and grow the economy. Dangote’s refinery, which began production of petrol in 2024, has argued that Nigeria’s import licensing regime undermines local refining by allowing marketers to continue bringing in petrol even when domestic supply is increasing.
The company has maintained that under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), imports should only be permitted when there is a clear supply shortfall, not as a parallel system competing with local production.
On the other hand, oil marketers and a cross section of Nigerians believe that leaving the market solely for Dangote, without any competition from any other refinery, especially from NNPC’s defunct Port Harcourt and Warri refineries will lead to a monopoly and inflated pump prices.
The NMDPRA fact sheet further showed that other domestic refining sources contributed only marginal volumes, specifically diesel refining. The three operational modular refineries: Walter Smith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel collectively supplied about 0.629 million litres per day of diesel during the month.
Walter Smith refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 59.56 per cent, supplying 0.241 million litres per day. Edo Refinery recorded 64.69 percent utilisation with 0.051 million litres per day, while Aradel posted 58.84 percent utilisation, delivering 0.337 million litres per day.
Average diesel consumption during the period stood at 14.5 million litres daily, slightly above the 14 million litres per day national benchmark, despite the rising prices as a result of the Middle East crisis, indicating sustained demand from industrial and commercial users.
Similarly, in March, aviation fuel consumption remained lower at 2.1 million litres per day compared to the 3 million litres per day benchmark for the country and against the 2.9 million litres per day supplied in February.
In the whole gas market segment, total supply averaged 4.888 Billion Standard Cubic Feet Per Day (Bscf/d). Of this, 3.033 Bscf/d was supplied to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG), representing approximately 62 percent of total gas supply.
Domestic gas supply stood at 1.855 Bscf/d, with utilisation spread across key sectors. Gas-to-power accounted for 0.485 Bscf/d, commercial consumption stood at 0.430 Bscf/d, and gas-based industries utilised 0.601 Bscf/d.
In the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) segment, the NMDPRA data indicated that demand outpaced supply during the period. Average daily supply stood at 4,726 metric tonnes, while consumption reached 5,122 metric tonnes per day, leaving a shortfall of 396 metric tonnes daily. Also, retail LPG prices ranged between N980 and N1,450 per kilogramme nationally.
Fuel sufficiency data showed that petrol stock levels stood at 21 days, including pumpable volumes at the Dangote Refinery, diesel sufficiency was 55 days, aviation fuel stood at 109 days, and LPG at 14 days.
In the same vein, the midstream and downstream regulator put the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline completion level at 79.23 per cent; OB3 River Crossing at 59.50 per cent and the Odidi-Warri Expansion Project (OWEP) at 67.34 per cent completion rate.
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