Business
Crude Supply Crisis Hits Dangote
Optimism over improved domestic refining output and cheaper petroleum products at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) now hang in the balance in the face of a 62 percent crude oil supply shortfall.
The $20 billion, 700,000 barrels per day facility, which began operations in 2021, is facing a severe crude supply shortfall of eight cargoes per month.
To operate at optimal capacity, the refinery requires 13 cargoes (ships) of crude monthly as against five cargoes currently being supplied by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd).
This was detailed in a report by the African Energy Council (AEC), which highlighted that the refinery is currently running at a third of its crude oil requirement.
The report lamented that the refinery running at a shortfall is not because the feedstock does not exist in Nigeria, but because the system supplying it has a vested interest in keeping the import window open.
The AEC added that the decision of the DPRP to file a suit against the Federal Government, NNPC Ltd and downstream regulator is less a legal story and more of a governance issue.
“When your mandated crude supplier competes with you in the same market, a shortfall of eight deliveries per month stops being a logistics problem and starts looking like a structural one,”, the report noted.
It added that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 was supposed to settle this.
ALSO READ: Renaissance Acquisition Pushes Aradel’s Assets Up 466% to N10trn
Specifically, the AEC noted that Section 317(9) served as an implicit agreement with private investors to refine locally, meet domestic demand, and operate in a context where import competition is effectively limited.
“That compact is now being tested in a Lagos courtroom and the outcome will say far more about Nigeria’s investment credibility than any roadshow ever could”.
The think-tank group pointed out that the real cost is not felt in Ibeju-Lekki but at the pump, at the CBN’s FX desk and in boardrooms across the continent watching to see whether Nigerian energy law means what it says.
The AEC argues that Dangote’s crude dispute lays bare a governance failure that no court ruling can fully fix.
The body lamented that a state oil company acting as both supplier and competitor to the very refinery built to end Nigeria’s import embarrassment is a conflict of interest hiding in plain sight.
“Until NNPC’s commercial and regulatory roles are cleanly separated, the PIA remains a promise on paper, and Africa’s most ambitious private energy investment stays hostage to institutional self-interest,” it noted.
The drop in crude supply to the Dangote refinery is further supported by latest data released by the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Authority (NMDPRA) for the month of May.
The report indicated that crude oil deliveries to Dangote, including other local refineries declined during the review period. Refiners received an average of 578,000 barrels of crude oil per day in May, down from 612,000 barrels per day in April, representing a decrease of 5.6 percent.
Industry observers pointed out that the development suggests that while local refining capacity continues to expand, refiners may still be facing operational and feedstock challenges that require supplementary imports to bridge supply gaps and maintain market stability.
Business
Why SPE Tips Nigeria to Attain 3mbpd Oil Output by 2030
The Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) Nigeria Council is of the view that the country will achieve three million barrels of oil production per day by 2030.
Biztellers reports that the thoughts are predicated on the oil and gas sector regaining global investor confidence owing to reforms, transparent licensing rounds and accelerated gas development reposition, factors that have combined to make the country an attractive investment destination for major global players in the sector.
Chairman of the SPE Nigeria Council, Francis Nwaochei, stated this at the opening ceremony of the 49th Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition (NAICE 2026) in Lagos on Monday.
The NAICE 2026 is holding under the theme: Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience”.
ALSO READ: How Will Local Petrol Prices Respond to Tumbling Oil Prices?
He said the recent policy reforms and coordinated actions by government and industry stakeholders were restoring confidence across the petroleum sector after years of declining investment.
According to him, Nigeria’s energy industry is entering a new phase driven by regulatory reforms, improved transparency, indigenous capacity and renewed efforts to attract long term capital.
He cited the successful conclusion of the 2025 Licensing Round, in which 31 companies emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks, as evidence of renewed investor appetite and a more transparent competitive bidding process.
“The industry is not standing still. The conclusion of recent licensing and bid rounds signals renewed investor interest and a more transparent competitive process.” The SPE Nigeria Council Chairman noted that the Federal Government’s Decade of Gas initiative was steadily positioning natural gas as the foundation for industrialisation, improved electricity supply, cleaner energy access and economic diversification. He also described the Federal Government’s planned N4 trillion government-backed bond to settle verified debts owed to electricity generation companies and gas suppliers as a significant intervention that would restore liquidity, improve bankability and strengthen confidence across Nigeria’s power and gas value chain.
According to him, these developments complement the broader vision of the Federal Government to increase crude oil production, deepen gas commercialisation and create a more predictable and investor-friendly operating environment.
He noted that the Ministers of State for Petroleum Resources, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) had consistently aligned around the goal of attracting investment, improving regulatory efficiency, expanding gas utilisation and growing Nigeria’s production capacity to three million barrels per day by 2030.
“The reforms, investments, regulatory actions and industry commitments we are witnessing today are the beginning of what resilience truly means for Nigeria’s energy industry,” he said.
Nwaochei said Nigeria possesses significant competitive advantages, including abundant hydrocarbon resources, resilient indigenous operators, world-class technical professionals and an expanding technology ecosystem capable of supporting long-term industry growth.
He, however, stressed that sustaining the industry’s momentum would require policy consistency, stronger regulatory coordination, technology deployment, local content development and greater collaboration among government, operators and investors.
“Nigeria’s energy future will be determined not only by the resources beneath our soil, but by how we develop technical solutions to our unique challenges, the quality of our leadership, the strength of our institutions, the clarity and stability of our policies, our willingness to innovate and our commitment to collaboration,” he said.
He urged participants at the three-day conference to move beyond identifying industry challenges and instead develop practical, implementable solutions capable of positioning Nigeria as a globally competitive energy destination.
The conference, one of Africa’s largest annual gatherings of petroleum professionals, will attract government officials, regulators, international and indigenous oil companies, service providers, investors, researchers, technology firms and students from Nigeria and other countries to discuss the future of the energy industry.
Business
How Will Local Petrol Prices Respond to Tumbling Oil Prices?
The world is witnessing a sharp drop in crude oil prices, which raises the issue of how the domestic market would react to the global trend.
The fall in oil prices came on Monday after United States President Donald Trump signalled a shift from military action against Iran to renewed diplomatic talks, easing fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The development calmed global oil markets, where traders had been worried that fighting in the region could disrupt crude supplies.
Brent crude, the international benchmark used to price Nigerian oil, dropped by more than 4.8 per cent to around $83.70 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by over 5 percent to about $79.60 per barrel. The decline marked one of the biggest single-day losses in recent months.
The price drop followed Trump’s announcement that he had suspended plans for a military strike on Iran and was instead pursuing a deal aimed at ending tensions over Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
In a message posted on his Truth Social platform, Trump said: “Iran and all other players have requested time to finalize a deal.”
ALSO READ: NLNG: How Cooking Gas Offtakers Greed Fuel Scarcity, High Prices
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes, with nearly a fifth of global crude exports passing through it. Any threat to shipping in the area usually pushes oil prices higher because traders fear supply shortages.
For weeks, uncertainty surrounding the conflict had driven oil prices sharply upward, raising the cost of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other refined products across many countries, including Nigeria.
Energy analysts say the latest decline in crude prices could eventually translate into lower fuel prices if the trend continues.
Nigeria now operates a deregulated downstream petroleum market, meaning petrol prices largely reflect global crude prices, exchange rates, shipping costs and local distribution expenses.
When crude oil becomes cheaper, the cost of producing refined petroleum products also falls. If marketers are able to buy fuel at lower international prices, consumers could benefit through reduced pump prices, although the adjustment may not happen immediately.
Industry experts, however, caution that Nigerians should not expect an instant reduction because local petrol prices are also influenced by the naira’s exchange rate, transportation costs, taxes and marketers’ existing inventories purchased at higher prices.
They note that marketers typically sell existing stock before adjusting prices to reflect lower replacement costs.
Market still watching Middle East Despite Monday’s sharp decline, analysts say uncertainty remains high as investors continue to monitor developments between the United States and Iran.
While hopes of diplomacy have eased fears of an immediate supply disruption, traders remain cautious because negotiations could still collapse, potentially reigniting tensions and sending oil prices higher again.
Another factor supporting lower prices is the decision by OPEC+ to gradually increase oil production from September. However, supply challenges in parts of the Middle East and other producing countries continue to limit the full impact of additional output.
For Nigeria, lower crude prices present mixed implications. Consumers could benefit from cheaper petrol if marketers pass on the savings, but reduced oil prices may also shrink government revenue since crude oil remains the country’s biggest source of foreign exchange earnings.
Whether Nigerians eventually enjoy cheaper fuel will depend on how long the decline in global oil prices lasts and whether other factors, particularly the exchange rate and distribution costs, remain stable.
Business
Shell Pledges Support for Nigeria’s Energy Journey
Shell will continue to support Nigeria in its efforts to build a secure energy future through investments and efficient delivery of its businesses in Nigeria.
“We continue to invest in Nigeria’s future through our projects, our people, and our enduring confidence in the potential of this nation,” General Manager, Development and Subsurface Shell Nigeria Deepwater, Kun Jiang said today while delivering the sponsor’s remarks at the 49th edition of the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition of the Society of Petroleum Engineers in Lagos.
Kun highlighted current investments in Bonga North, HI and the advancement of Bonga Southwest as testimonies of Shell’s confidence in Nigeria’s deepwater future. The confidence was further reiterated with the recent launch of a US$3 billion contract financing programme by Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo), which will help Nigerian contractors build capability, create value, and accelerate project delivery.
Shell is a major sponsor of the conference as part of a longstanding support for a professional body which has contributed to the development of the oil and gas industry. Discussing the theme of the conference; “Thriving in the Evolving Global Energy Landscape: Collaborative Growth and Resilience,” Kun said Nigeria had a lot of opportunities despite geopolitical tensions that threaten global supply chains and market volatility and shifting energy dynamics.
“With a population exceeding 240 million people, abundant natural resources, world-class talent, and growing domestic energy needs, Nigeria has all the ingredients to become one of the world’s most attractive energy investment destination,” she pointed out. “But potential alone does not create prosperity. Potential must be converted into progress. Resources must be transformed into value. Opportunity must be matched by action.”
ALSO READ: Eterna Posts N5.88bn Profit for H1
Nigeria must continue to attract capital, strengthen the business environment, embrace technology to unlock potentials if it will thrive in the global evolving energy landscape. She added: “The future will belong to countries and industries that combine resilience with innovation, ambition with collaboration and investment with execution excellence. Nigeria has the resources. Nigeria has the talent. Nigeria has the opportunity. What is required now is the collective determination to seize it.”
Shell is mounting an exhibition at the SPE conference with SNEPCo’s Senior Production Geologist Abidemi Belgore taking industry leaders and regulators round the stand.
Key areas of interest include technological breakthroughs that have enhanced output at Bonga and facilitated the execution of the Bonga North project. Also highlighted on the stand is the full range of Shell businesses in Nigeria from deepwater oil production and integrated gas to renewables and power solutions as well as social investments across the country.





