Connect with us

Business

Currency crisis looms as fiscal buffers dwindle

Published

on

LAGOS – The continued dwindling of the fiscal buffers- foreign reserves, excess crude account, (ECA) against the backdrop of rising and stable oil prices at the international market is responsible for the strengthening expectation that the nation’s currency, the naira, will dramatically lose value, Business Day investigations have shown.

Also, the current gap of over N13 between the official and parallel market rate which is creating arbitrage opportunity for forex dealers and lose fiscal stance of the federal government among others, is increasing dealers appetite for hedging through the growing desire to switch from Naira to foreign currency denominated deposits. The implication, they argue, is that naira will witness more depreciation.

Razia Khan, analyst with the standard chartered bank, London said, “It is correct that fiscal policy plays a key role in shaping expectations. Monetary policy has done pretty much what it can to restore FX stability. But expectations regarding the sustainability of a stable FX rate are heavily influenced by fiscal policy.

Currency crisis looms as fiscal buffers dwindleBy running down its external and fiscal buffers, the ECA, Nigeria proves itself to be especially susceptible to oil price volatility. In the event of an oil price (or oil output) shock, the perception is that Nigeria will not be able to defend its FX rate. Markets are forward looking, hence the pressure on the currency now. Monetary policy will continue to try to restore stability – but it can only do so much.”

Analysts and monetary policy committee members are of the opinion that this portends danger for the economy as the Central Bank of Nigeria is getting closer to the limit of its monetary policy, stressing that the projected 6-9 percentage inflation rate can only be achieved with stable currency.

A currency crisis is a sudden devaluation of a currency which often ends in a speculative attack in the foreign exchange market. A currency crisis may result from chronic balance-of-payments deficits or from market speculation about the ability of a government to back its currency.

Although most of the analysts who spoke with BusinessDay did not see devaluation as the viable option in view of the import dependent nature of our economy, they wonder why Nigeria with a $30bn current account surplus and with oil prices at $100 per barrel is not seeing an accretion in its foreign reserves.

Besides, they say that considering the rate at which ECA is being depleted, we may wake up next year to discover that nothing is left in the account.

Another concern is the fact that no one seems to be in charge or accountable for management of oil income and questioned the relevance of the economic management team.

“That is why you have all the noise of accusation and denial with regards to what has accrued to the NNPC that is not remitted to the nation’s coffers,” says one close currency watcher

“Somehow, somebody will have to make sense of the oil production and revenue numbers. We are all going to pay a huge price for negligence as CBN can not continue to defend the naira as its balance sheet has very little wiggle room, he told BusinessDay.

Bismark Rewane in recent LBS breakfast meeting for February said that weaker naira will impair earnings of banks and also increases risk of default on dollar-denominated loans.”

Doyin Salami, in his contributions at the last MPC meeting said “From the perspective of economics theory, a persistent surplus on our current account, resulting from high oil price, should see the Naira strengthen. However, the failure to build reserves has resulted in strengthening expectation of that the Naira will lose value. This expectation has been manifested in a continuing switch from Naira to foreign currency denominated deposits –a trend I had previously described as “retail hedging.”

Unless the Fiscal side shows significant improvement imminently, the options for monetary policy may become glaringly inconsistent with the objectives and policy direction for the economy in Nigeria. For monetary policy, the challenge of managing the internal and external value of the Naira is a core element of its mandate. Achieving inflation rate of 6 ‐9 per cent in 2014 requires a stable currency.”

Salami further observed that the model articulated, in various documents, for the growth and development of the larger economy in Nigeria is predicated on Import substitution and for CBN to achieve price stability, “import substitution requires a stable, even strong currency.”

He said that given the data and information laid before the committee members “the immediate and emerging build up of banking system liquidity, it is clear that there is a need to respond to the pressure on the currency and forestall the build-up of further pressure. However, it is increasingly clear that we are approaching the limits for using the cost of credit as a management tool without inflicting damage on the growth and development aspirations of the economy.”

Sarah Alade, deputy governor and member of the MPC said, “Already, available data suggest that Gross Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and portfolio inflows decreased significantly in the last quarter of 2013. Given that monetary policy is approaching its limit, there is need to allow for more flexibility in the exchange rate”

Suleiman Barau, another member of MPC said that the current crisis was “aggravated by activities of politicians who may have been forced to recourse to the use of foreign currencies to avoid charges associated with Naira cash withdrawals. The aggravated demand for foreign exchange (for transfers/Letter of Credit valid) that we have seen in 2013 is largely in the area of invisibles which has increased by 23.8% from 24% ($13.3b) to 48.2% ($26.1b) during corresponding period in 2012.”

Kingsley Moghalu, deputy governor and also a member of the committee said, “The role of fiscal factors in the current difficulties, marked by a severe decline in the Excess Crude Account over the past year, thus leaving the country dangerously vulnerable to external shocks as a result of the lack of fiscal savings. There is no indication that this situation will change in the near to medium term.”

– BUSINESS DAY

Click to comment
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Business

Nigerian Airline Decries Impact of Global Oil Crisis

Published

on

Global oil market disruptions occasioned by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions involving the United States and Iran cost Nigeria’s domestic airlines operators dearly.

The Chairman of United Nigeria Airlines and spokesperson for the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), Prof Obiora Okonkwo, made the assertion, adding that his airline alone lost about N10bn within three months of the impasse.

According to Okonkwo, the geopolitical crisis triggered a rise in aviation fuel prices, worsening operating conditions for domestic carriers already battling high operating costs and infrastructure challenges.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is regarded as the world’s most critical oil transit route, handling nearly 20 percent of global petroleum shipments. Its disruption sent shockwaves through global energy markets and significantly impacted Nigeria’s aviation industry.

He spoke during the unveiling of two newly acquired Boeing 737-800 Next Generation aircraft, registered as 5N-CFC and 5N-CFB, by United Nigeria Airlines. The aircraft were named after the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe, and the late literary icon Chinua Achebe.

Reflecting on the airline’s recent challenges, Okonkwo acknowledged that reforms introduced by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, had helped stabilise the sector, but external economic pressures remained severe.

“There are seasons when there are low passengers, but in the last three months, what we have seen is simply too much. We have lost about N10bn, N5bn, N6bn in a space of three months as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We have to make up for the losses we have incurred in the last three months,” he said.

Despite the setbacks, the airline chief described the acquisition of the new aircraft as a major milestone and a sign of resilience in the Nigerian aviation sector.

“We have gathered here to celebrate. Two, three, four years ago, it was not clear what the future of aviation would be. There were issues, and in Nigeria, aviation was in total turmoil. But until our minister, Festus Keyamo, stepped in, we had a meeting in his office where he promised he would address the policy issues. Today, the right policies have helped us come this far,” he added.

Speaking on the choice of names for the aircraft, Okonkwo paid tribute to both Chinua Achebe and the Obi of Onitsha.

“Today we have one Achebe that introduced Africa to the whole world. He is from my hometown. Wherever I go around the world, I tell them that Okonkwo in Things Fall Apart is my great-great-grandfather. We have another Achebe who is a living legend and icon. We have here the Obi of Onitsha, Nnaemeka Achebe,” he said.

Providing insight into the airline’s expansion plans, he revealed that the newly acquired aircraft are part of a broader fleet acquisition programme, promising that more aircraft will arrive in the country before the year runs out.

“It is going to be six aircraft in total, and we just have two here. I thank God Almighty for making this possible,” he said.

Okonkwo also commended the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority for expediting the certification process for the aircraft, describing the regulator’s support as crucial to the airline’s growth.

“We are thankful to the DG of the NCAA who has made our services possible. I had told him I had three aircraft that were arriving. Three of his directors came to our office on a Saturday, prepared all the documents, inspected the aircraft, and issued all the certificates. The process of operating aircraft won’t be easy without ease in certifications,” he said.

ALSO READ: Adeleke Credits Judiciary with Key to Survival of Nigeria’s Democracy

The airline chairman further highlighted the operational difficulties airlines face daily, stressing that delays are often caused by factors beyond the control of carriers.

“I know we have passengers in Nigeria that want to get to their destinations. The important thing is to get passengers to their destinations safely and in time. The truth of the matter is that the operator wants to take you there on time.

“That you buy a ticket doesn’t put money in our pockets, because you can demand a refund. Sometimes we meet situations beyond our control. When one aircraft goes bad, we start to work on the schedule so we don’t leave anyone behind. Sometimes it is a bird strike, sometimes it could be because of airport availability,” he explained.

Okonkwo also criticised the financial structure governing aviation agencies, arguing that excessive deductions from the revenues of the NCAA and the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria were limiting their ability to improve infrastructure and service delivery.

“Minister, we are not happy with the recent report from IATA that Nigeria is the most expensive place to operate. It means it costs operators more to operate. We want a reduction in the charges,” he said.

“The government yanks 70 per cent from the aviation accounts to do other things that are not aviation-related, and this strains the NCAA and FAAN. If we leave these monies in their accounts, they will be encouraged to provide the needed services. The core aspect of the Nigerian economy is driven by aviation. In conclusion, when this is done, the government can also provide a single-digit loan,” he added.

Speaking on behalf of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Executive Sales Director for Africa, Moore Ibekwe, said recent reforms in Nigeria’s aviation sector have improved access to financing, strengthened regulatory compliance and enhanced safety standards, creating a more attractive environment for aircraft acquisition and industry growth.

According to him, the improvements have enabled Nigerian operators to acquire new-generation aircraft and expand technical capacity.

He noted that Boeing recently launched a training programme in Nigeria, with its engineers providing hands-on training for local professionals. Ibekwe added that the newly acquired Boeing 737 aircraft would create significant opportunities for the country’s aviation industry and broader economy.

“The country needs about 1,200 aircraft. If we get a good percentage of these aircraft, the sky will not be our limit. We have the manpower, capability, and finances. Aviation is global; it creates good-paying jobs, opens up the economy, and positions Nigeria on the world stage in science, technology, finance, fashion, and entertainment,” he said.

Also speaking, the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe, expressed gratitude after one of the newly inducted aircraft was named in his honour alongside the late literary icon Chinua Achebe. “I am overwhelmed. I’m lost for words. It is a day of gratitude,” he said.

Also speaking at the event, the Minister of Aviation expressed delight at developments in the country’s aviation industry.

Continue Reading

Business

Post-war Rate Dilemma, Inflation, Lower Oil Prices Rattle CBN

Published

on

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to face one of its most dicey policy decisions in months with easing global oil prices following the United States-Iran ceasefire being made worse by persistent domestic inflationary pressures, a report from SBM Intelligence said on Wednesday.

The ceasefire agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices, with Brent crude falling from a peak of about $114 per barrel to nearly $101 per barrel.

The development has eased fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions and raised expectations of moderation in fuel and transport costs across oil-importing economies.

For Nigeria, however, the policy implications are far more complex, the SBM report titled; ‘The Persian Trap Aftermath: Has West Africa Escaped a Deeper Crisis?’ said.

During the conflict, rising oil prices pushed petrol pump prices from around N830 per litre to as high as N1,325, while diesel prices climbed above N1,550 per litre, worsening transport costs and food inflation.

The resulting price shocks, the firm said, contributed to a sustained rise in consumer prices and complicated the CBN’s inflation-fighting efforts.

ALSO REAS: US-Iran Deal over Strait of Hormuz May Cost Nigeria up to N13trn

Data from SBM Intelligence showed that 82.7 percent of traders surveyed across major Nigerian cities reported price increases linked directly to the conflict, while 76.4 percent experienced significant increases in transportation costs.

Headline inflation rose to 15.93 percent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, while food inflation stood at 16.96 percent year-on-year (y/y).

The SBM Jollof Index, which tracks the cost of preparing a standard family-sized pot of jollof rice, reached N30,435 in April, 19.4 percent from N25,486 six months earlier, before easing slightly to N29,800 as of early June.

Against this backdrop, the MPC maintained the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 percent throughout the conflict, prioritising exchange-rate stability, foreign investor confidence and inflation control, according to its chairman, Olayemi Cardoso.

Hence, SBM Intelligence says the committee now faces a difficult balancing act.

According to the research and strategic communications consulting firm, with oil prices retreating and the immediate supply shock fading, pressure may grow on policymakers to begin discussing a gradual easing cycle to support economic activity and reduce borrowing costs for businesses and households.

The firm warned that premature rate cuts could undermine recent gains in inflation management, particularly given lingering uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire agreement and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

“We urge caution even so. Mine-clearance in the strait will take weeks, shipping backlogs at alternative ports need resolution, and the terms of the agreement may still “inject unease and uncertainty” if ratification stalls.

The IMF has welcomed the ceasefire but underlined that the risk of fresh energy disruptions remains elevated, particularly given the unresolved posture of Houthi forces in Yemen and the absence of any normalisation framework between Iran and Israel.

So the challenge ahead for the MPC is to engineer a measured easing cycle as global prices fall, without triggering renewed inflation if the ceasefire breaks down or if the US–Iran agreement stalls in ratification. This requires close monitoring of Hormuz mine-clearance progress and the resumption curve of Iranian export volumes”, the report said.

SBM Intelligence stressed that the situation highlights structural weaknesses within Nigeria’s economy. According to the firm, despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products, domestic fuel pricing remains heavily exposed to international crude benchmarks.

It said that beyond inflation, lower oil prices could create fresh fiscal challenges for the government by reducing projected oil revenues at a time when public finances remain under pressure.

The report concluded that while the ceasefire has delivered welcome relief to global markets and Nigerian consumers, inflation remains above comfort levels, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continues to cast a shadow over the economic outlook.

“The ceasefire offers a narrow window for West Africa to build resilience. Strategic fuel reserves and fertiliser buffer stocks, financed through import levies and distributed through market associations, would protect traders from future shocks.

Regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area must be accelerated to develop overland corridors as alternatives to Middle Eastern maritime routes. Investment in solar and off-grid energy is no longer a luxury but a commercial necessity.

The underlying vulnerabilities are unchanged: import dependence, thin fiscal buffers and exposure to chokepoints beyond West African control. The ceasefire is a diplomatic achievement, but the structural realignment of global trade that the war accelerated will persist. Another shock will come”, it said.

Continue Reading

Business

Dangote Refinery Inspires Future Engineers as FUTO Students Experience Africa’s Largest Industrial Complex

Published

on

Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) reaffirmed commitment to nurturing the next generation of African engineers, innovators, and industrial leaders, when it hosted outstanding students from the Federal University of Technology, Owerri (FUTO) on an educational tour.

The visit was in fulfilment of a promise made by the President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, during the university’s 37th Public Lecture, where he pledged to expose exceptional students to world-class industrial operations. The initiative is aimed at bridging the gap between academic learning and real-world industry experience.

Led by the Vice Chancellor of FUTO, Prof Nnenna Oti, the delegation comprised top-performing students drawn from engineering, technology, and entrepreneurship disciplines.

Speaking during an interactive session with the students, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, David Bird, described the facility as a compelling demonstration of how innovation, advanced technology, and private sector investment can drive economic transformation while opening up opportunities for young Africans.

According to Bird, the refinery, widely regarded as the world’s largest single-train refinery, represents the peak of technological sophistication on the African continent.

“There is no better showcase of modern technology than the refinery that Alhaji Aliko Dangote has built here,” he said.

“What we have created is one of the world’s youngest, most modern, energy-efficient, highly automated, and data-rich refineries. It is also contributing to the decarbonisation of the oil and gas value chain while delivering cleaner fuels to Nigeria and West Africa.”

ALSO READ: Midnight Horror in Kaduna: Gunmen Kill Nine, Injure 11 in Fresh Community Attack

He emphasised that exposure to facilities of this scale is critical to reshaping perceptions about Africa’s industrial sector.
“I am incredibly inspired by the curiosity, passion, and enthusiasm shown by these students. They are seeing first-hand that this industry is dynamic, innovative, and offers rewarding long-term career opportunities for highly skilled professionals,” Bird added.

He further disclosed that the refinery plans to deepen collaboration with universities and research institutions, particularly in emerging fields such as renewable energy and sustainable fuel technologies.

“Our objective is to stay closely aligned with universities, understand the research they are undertaking, and identify opportunities to support the commercialisation of innovative ideas. There are exciting developments around biofuels and other technologies shaping the future of energy,” he said.

In her remarks, Professor Oti described the visit as a transformative and life-changing experience for the students, noting that it aligns with ongoing efforts to strengthen partnerships between academia and industry.
She explained that the students were personally invited by Aliko Dangote following his lecture at the university earlier in the year.

“At the end of his lecture, he invited 15 female and 15 male students to visit his refinery and factories in Lagos as special guests. This was part of his vision to inspire the next generation, and today stands as a fulfilment of that promise,” she said.

According to the Vice Chancellor, the initiative provides a rare platform for students to connect classroom knowledge with practical industrial applications.

“This is what I describe as an Ivory Tower–Industry Partnership. There is no more effective way to bridge the gap between theory and practice than by exposing students to facilities of this scale,” she said. “These are some of our best students across mechanical, chemical, petroleum and software engineering, as well as entrepreneurship. This experience will undoubtedly broaden their horizons, expand their ambitions, and shape their future careers.”

She added that the visit underscores the transformative impact of visionary African entrepreneurship in driving industrialisation and economic growth.

For many of the students, the tour offered a unique opportunity to see firsthand the technologies and systems they had previously encountered only in theory.

A 500-level Mechanical Engineering student, Amadi Ijeoma Winfrey, described the experience as both enlightening and inspiring.

“The experience has been amazing,” she said. “Seeing the practical application of equipment such as pumps, compressors, and turbines has helped bridge the gap between theory and reality.”

She noted that witnessing the scale and sophistication of the refinery has strengthened her aspirations for a career in engineering and industrial development.

Similarly, a 500-level Chemical Engineering student, Israel Ifanyichukwu, described the visit as transformative, noting that it provided valuable insight into how classroom theories are applied on an industrial scale. He said the experience has not only broadened his perspective but also equipped him with knowledge he intends to apply in his academic and professional pursuits.

Also speaking, Professor Abraham Ngwuta, Director of the Centre for Entrepreneurial Studies, and Professor Chikwendu Emenike Orji, Dean of Students Affairs, described Aliko Dangote as a model entrepreneur whose diverse investments across critical sectors highlight the power of vision, discipline, and long-term value creation. They noted that his industrial footprint offers a practical framework for students to understand entrepreneurship as a driver of national development, job creation, and economic transformation.

The visit forms part of Dangote Industries’ broader commitment to advancing education, innovation, and skills development, as well as preparing a new generation of professionals capable of driving Africa’s industrial transformation.

Continue Reading

Copyright © 2022. Biztellers, powered by Alphaxristi.

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x