Oil and gas expert and Convener of the Oil, Gas and Power Forum, Madaki Ameh, has urged Nigerians to take advantage of the Dangote Refinery Initial Public Offering (IPO), describing it as a rare opportunity for ordinary citizens to own a stake in one of the country’s biggest refining businesses.

Ameh said the IPO, priced at ₦525 per share, has created an accessible entry point for Nigerians who want to participate in the oil and gas industry, noting that investors can buy shares with as little as ₦5,000.

He made the remarks while speaking on Arise News, where he described the offer as an opportunity Nigerians should seriously consider.

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“The Dangote Refinery IPO gives Nigerians a rare opportunity to own a piece of a refinery. Most of us will not be able to build our own refineries in our lifetime, so this is a very good opportunity.

“The IPO is coming at an extremely good price—at 525 Naira per share, the shares are worth less than $1 (around 30 cents). Nobody would sell shares of an organization like Dangote Refinery for that low.”

According to Ameh, the relatively low entry point could generate significant interest among retail investors and potentially lead to substantial oversubscription.

“Ordinarily, I expect a huge level of interest—maybe a 200% to 300% oversubscription within a month. They have made it easy for anyone to buy; if you have up to 5,000 Naira, you can own a piece of Dangote Refinery. It is a very smart, strategic move,” he said.

Shares Could Double Within Six Months

Ameh also projected significant growth in the value of the refinery’s shares, citing plans by the company to increase its refining capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day.

“From the way this IPO is priced, and considering that the refinery plans to double its capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day in a short while, informed investors see that these shares are priced almost like penny stocks with the capacity to double within six months.

“In an inflationary environment, money kept in the bank loses value. Putting your money here is a prudent choice, as it can grow exponentially within a short time.”

He encouraged Nigerians to consider participating in the IPO, arguing that the minimum investment required was relatively small compared with the potential opportunity.

“As they say, no risk, no reward. If the risk threshold is low—5,000 Naira can hardly buy a decent meal in this country—and people are not ready to take a chance to buy ten shares, then they are not ready to make money.

“Nigerians should encourage themselves to be part of this massive business. This is money you make even while sleeping once you have investable funds.”

Dangote Should Be Encouraged

Ameh also dismissed concerns that the Dangote Refinery could create a monopoly in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, arguing that the company should instead be encouraged for taking the risk of investing billions of dollars in domestic refining.

He recalled that Dangote began developing the refinery about a decade ago, at a time when there was uncertainty over whether the massive project would be completed.

“Dangote started this refinery about ten years ago when nobody gave him much of a chance. Dangote took personal courage and committed his own resources, recognizing that the future still required refining.

“He set up a private refinery that is now operational and delivering value. Now he is going to Kenya to set up another massive refinery in East Africa to handle the oil and gas value chain in that region.”

Responding to concerns about competition, Ameh argued that other investors had opportunities to establish refineries but failed to commit the necessary resources.

“People complain about a monopoly, but nobody prevented others from doing business. Many people hold refinery licenses today and have not laid a single brick.

“A man who had the courage to take the bull by the horns should be encouraged to reap the benefits. I fully align with the need to continue encouraging private industry, and Dangote is leading the way in Africa.”

He further argued that the risks associated with Dangote’s investment should be viewed in the context of the enormous scale of the project.

“The risks mentioned are minimal when looking at the entire risk profile. Dangote knows how to manage big companies. For a private individual to import and install every component shows immense confidence in this economy. We need many more investors like Dangote doing this level of work,” Ameh told Arise News.

Ameh Wants Government to Sell Crude to Local Refiners at $10

Beyond the IPO, Ameh called for broader reforms in Nigeria’s oil industry, including the sale of crude oil to domestic refiners at wellhead prices of no more than $10 per barrel.

He said the policy would strengthen local refining, increase domestic production and reduce the foreign exchange burden associated with importing refined petroleum products.

“Since 2012, I have consistently advocated that Nigeria needs a strategic plan to exit OPEC at some point. We have no business selling unrefined crude oil; we should refine everything we produce.

“Producing between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels in total is not enough to grow this economy to where it ought to be.”

Ameh argued that the government should shift the focus of petroleum subsidies from consumption to production.

“The country needs to shift the subsidy from the consumption end to the production end. If you sell crude oil at the wellhead cost (which should not be more than $10 a barrel) to local refiners, you energize the economy significantly.

“This stops the drain on foreign exchange from importing products we can produce in abundance locally.”

Dangote Should Enter Upstream Sector

Ameh also called on Dangote to consider entering the upstream oil sector to secure crude feedstock for the refinery, particularly as its refining capacity expands.

“The government should encourage Dangote to enter the upstream sector himself to produce the feedstock for his refinery. When he expands to 1.4 million barrels per day and starts production in Kenya, finding enough crude to refine will become difficult.”

He said the government could support backward integration by allocating oil-producing assets to serious local refiners.

“If we have serious local refiners, why not farm out acreages in prolific fields and allow them to engage in backward integration? That way, the refinery produces its own feedstock,” he said.

Dangote Refinery Shares Could Double By December

Ameh further expressed optimism about the valuation prospects of Dangote Refinery, saying its share price could almost double or more than double by December 2026.

He linked the projection to expected strong demand for the refinery’s products in both domestic and international markets.

“When Dangote says the refinery will be the most valuable by December, he means that based on current projections and demand both locally and internationally, the value of these shares on listing could almost double or more than double by the end of the year,” Ameh said.

The comments come as the Dangote Refinery IPO attracts growing attention from Nigerian investors, with the offer providing retail investors an opportunity to participate directly in the ownership of a major player in the country’s oil and gas value chain.

However, while Ameh expressed strong optimism about the potential returns, investment in equities remains subject to market risks, and future share-price performance is not guaranteed.