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Delay In Crude Supply To Dangote Refinery Poses Risk To Nigeria’s Economy – EIU Report
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has issued a warning that further delays in crude oil feedstock to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals could jeopardise Nigeria’s economic recovery and put additional pressure on the naira.
The research and analysis division of the Economist Group said the Dangote refinery which began production in January has encountered setbacks in petrol production due to a shortage of crude oil feedstock.
It noted that the $20 billion facility has successfully exported various products, including fuel oil, naphtha, nitrogen fertilisers, gasoil, jet fuel, and diesel but has been able to ramp up petrol production due to challenges in sourcing adequate crude oil.
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According to the EIU, the delays in crude feedstock to the Dangote Refinery are expected to have significant economic repercussions for Nigeria, potentially worsening the already strained relationship between public finances and the management of the naira, the country’s currency.
The report pointed out that though the government had previously scrapped the official petrol subsidy in June 2023, the practice of unofficially subsidising petrol continues, with substantial implications for the national budget.
It further pointed out that this had led to increased currency losses, contributing to a widening budget deficit which made it increasingly difficult to manage and could force the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to revert to stronger management of the currency.
“As the federal government unofficially subsidises petrol (the official subsidy was scrapped in June 2023), currency losses feed into a widening budget deficit that is becoming more challenging to finance. This provides extra incentive for the central bank to revert to stronger management of the currency, as we already expect, but the degree of market intervention could become heavier. Meanwhile, ongoing fuel imports would reduce the current-account surplus from the 1.9% of GDP that we currently project for 2025, potentially leading to lower foreign reserves and the return to a more rigid and unstable foreign-exchange system,” it said.
The delay in securing a reliable pipeline of affordable crude oil feedstock was attributed to low crude production due to oil theft and underinvestment, as well as using crude oil to repay outstanding loans.
“The refinery has encountered a range of problems, both practical and political in nature. The most publicly discussed issue is how the refinery can secure a reliable pipeline of crude oil feedstock at affordable prices. NNPC, the state oil firm, has not been able to provide enough volume. The government has promised to deliver 450,000 b/d of oil to the refinery through NNPC in a pilot scheme, sold in naira, but the state oil company is not in a position to make this a reliable arrangement. Crude production in Nigeria is stubbornly low, as a result of oil theft and underinvestment. Output was 1.31m b/d in July, against an OPEC+ target of 1.38m b/d. NNPC receives a varying minority share of this and, moreover, a sizable quantity (about 90,000 b/d) is being committed as loan collateral,” it added.
The situation, it said, has been worsened by International Oil Companies (IOCs) operating in Nigeria, which demand a premium of $3-$4 per barrel over the prices they receive elsewhere. It noted that regulators are hesitant to enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) — which requires IOCs to sell crude to local refineries — out of concern that such enforcement might lead to divestment.
The report emphasised that producing fuel locally would significantly benefit Nigeria’s fiscal position and currency, given that petroleum products account for 15% to 20% of the country’s goods import bill.
The Dangote Refinery, hailed as a transformative development, is expected to resolve the paradox of Nigeria being a major crude oil producer yet still dependent on fuel imports. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d), the refinery could potentially eliminate the need for fuel imports and shield local fuel prices from exchange-rate fluctuations.
“The Dangote fuel refinery is potentially transformational for Nigeria, which has always been an oil exporter and fuel importer. This fact is often regarded as a failure and an embarrassment by politicians, businesses and the media alike, but the new refinery has the ability to change this,” it said.
Nigeria’s economic fortune is benefiting from the Middle East crisis, as the impact of capital inflows from stronger crude oil earnings has seen her foreign reserves climb to record $53.1 billion, beating the $51.04 billion year-end target.
Data available on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) website indicated that the reserves closed at $53.1 billion on August 24, which is the highest level in almost 18 years.
Any analyses of the growth shows that the difference in reserves position places the Nigerian economy in good stead, because it can cover over 12 months import.
It is noteworthy that Nigeria’s external reserves fuel the CBN’s capacity to support the local currency and meet external obligations, have continued to rise steadily, since the face-off between the United States and Iran.
Further analysis of the data displayed by the CBN showed that the liquid portion of the external reserves stood at $52.5 billion.
Biztellers reports that Brent crude traded around $87 per barrel, within the week, well above Nigeria’s 2026 federal budget benchmark of $64.85.
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With the Middle East crisis not showing signs of abating, analysts believe the price rebound would largely bolster Nigeria’s fiscal revenues.
The line of thought is popular among those who know, because as a crude oil exporter, Nigeria will continue to earn more petrodollars, which they argue would support the domestic currency – naira’s stability, while pumping the volume of external reserves.
In its economic projections for 2026, the CBN targeted stronger oil earnings, foreign exchange market reforms and improved external capital inflows to achieve the year-end reserves projection.
According to analysts, the current reserves position reinforces the steady growth in Nigeria’s external buffers.
The founder/Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, earlier hinted at a positive outlook for Nigeria’s external reserves as he does not see anything derailing the forex and fiscal reforms that have brought about stability and improvement in external reserves, as reported by The Nation.
Yusuf said: “Well, the outlook for me is positive because I don’t see anything derailing these forex reforms, fuel subsidy etc. It is these reforms that have brought about stability.”
The CBN data further showed that Nigeria’s external reserves have maintained a steady upward surge in recent months.
The reserves started June at $49.80 billion and crossed the $50 billion mark by June 5, reaching $50.12 billion.
On June 15, reserves had increased further to $50.81 billion before rising to the current position. The reserves stood at $51.9 billion on July 31, and continued.
The sustained increase reflects stronger foreign exchange inflows and improved liquidity conditions in the country’s external sector.
The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said: “This strong buffer continues to reinforce investor confidence in the Nigerian economy and support exchange rate stability.”
The CBN’s decision to clear over $7 billion unsettled FX backlogs raised investors’ confidence in the economy, supporting dollar inflows and foreign reserves accretion, Cardoso added.
The CBN boss had explained that although he had no idea where the fund for the backlog clearance would come from, when he assumed office, he believed it was the right thing to do, and gave investors his word.
He said: “Credibility is at the heart of any central bank. If you don’t have credibility, people do not trust you and they do not invest in your economy. When I took office, I made a promise we would pay the backlog, the verifiable backlog of monies that were owed by Nigeria to third parties.
“And it was, at the time, estimated at over $7 billion US dollars. And to be honest with you, I had no idea how I was going to do it, but I just felt it was not something to be negotiated.”
Cardoso explained that Nigeria needed to ensure that its integrity is maintained. Analysts believe the higher reserve level could enhance the CBN’s capacity to support exchange rate stability and meet external obligations.
Up to 30% equity in the upcoming Dangote Refinery in Kenya, has been placed on the table for East African countries, which makes about $1.5 billion worth of the planned project available to regional investors.
David Ndii, Kenyan President William Ruto’s economic adviser, disclosed this on Thursday at a capital markets forum in Nairobi, where he said Kenya would take a 10% stake while Ethiopia and Rwanda had also expressed interest.
Dangote’s planned refinery is expected to be developed in Lamu, a coastal town in southeastern Kenya, though the project was initially proposed for Tanga in Tanzania.
According to the billionaire industrialist, the decision to move the proposed location to Kenya was informed by commercial and technical considerations.
Ndii disclosed that Kenya’s proposed 10% participation would be worth approximately $500 million.
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He said the combined regional participation could amount to about $1.5 billion, with Dangote prepared to support the project if some participating countries are unable to commit as crude off-takers.
“The total for the region is about $1.5 billion,” he said. “I don’t actually see a challenge in doing that, and if some of them are not off-taking we will backstop.”
The proposed regional participation would give East African countries a direct equity interest in a major energy infrastructure project while potentially securing access to refined petroleum products for participating markets.
The United Nations Geoscheme (UNG) for Africa defines Eastern Africa as comprising 18 sovereign countries, alongside two French overseas territories, meaning the proposed 30% allocation could potentially involve a broader regional investor base beyond Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda.
The Nigerian authorities have been called upon to focus on strengthening domestic refining capacity.
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) made the call in a communiqué issued at the end of the three-day PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit (PEALS 2026).
It stressed the need for adequate protection for refineries operating in the country.
The PENGASSAN said Nigeria must reduce the economic inefficiency of exporting crude oil while importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products by creating an environment that supports domestic refining and other value‑adding activities.
The communiqué, signed by the union President, Festus Osifo, and General Secretary, Jerry Amah, stressed the need to protect refineries, including Dangote Refinery and Waltersmith Refinery.
The association said the expansion would enable Nigeria to retain a greater share of the value generated from its petroleum resources while creating jobs, conserving foreign exchange and stimulating industrial development. PENGASSAN linked the growth to wider opportunities in petrochemicals, gas processing and other downstream activities.
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The communiqué reads in part: “The summit called for sustained policies and investments to expand Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and reduce the economic inefficiency of exporting crude oil while importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products. The need to protect refineries (such as Dangote Refinery, Waltersmith Refinery, etc.) within Nigeria’s jurisdiction was emphasised.
“Nigeria must progressively retain more value from its petroleum resources through domestic refining, petrochemicals, gas processing and other value‑adding activities capable of generating employment, conserving foreign exchange and stimulating industrial growth.
“Ultimately, the strength of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry will not be measured merely by the resources beneath the ground, but by the projects delivered, the value created, the Nigerian capabilities developed, the decent jobs sustained and the prosperity generated for the Nigerian people.”
The association also warned that abrupt policy changes, overlapping mandates, repetitive approvals and conflicting directives increase the cost of doing business and weaken Nigeria’s competitiveness for global energy capital.
The PENGASSAN called for faster regulatory approvals, digitalised processes and clearer timelines, arguing that the effectiveness of regulation should be measured by its impact on investment, production, government revenue, job creation and national value rather than simply by the number of licences or approvals issued.
On gas, the PENGASSAN advocated an integrated approach to developing Nigeria’s more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, including investments in processing facilities, pipelines, storage, LNG, LPG and CNG infrastructure. It said gas should be deployed more aggressively for power generation, manufacturing, transportation, fertiliser and petrochemical production.
The association also urged stronger protection of workers’ rights, occupational safety and employment during mergers, acquisitions, divestments and asset transfers, saying sustainable investment requires skilled and fairly treated workers and that increased production must not come at the expense of workers’ lives and wellbeing.
In addition, the PENGASSAN said the next phase of Nigeria’s petroleum industry must focus on execution with measurable targets and clearly assigned responsibilities to ensure policies translate into projects, production, investment and sustainable employment.
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