In a move aimed at preventing potential supply shortages in the domestic market, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), has approved fresh imports of petrol and diesel for Q3 2026.

This was gleaned from a report by global energy intelligence firm Argus Media, published on Tuesday.

Citing regulatory and industry sources, the report stated that the latest approvals were issued to major downstream operators amid declining fuel stock levels and concerns over reduced gasoline production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP).

The move comes as Nigeria continues to balance increasing local refining capacity with the need to guarantee adequate supplies of petroleum products across the country.

According to the Argus report, domestic firms including AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono Energy, Nipco, Matrix Energy and Pinnacle Oil received permits to import Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, during the July-September period.

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The publication further reported that the same companies, with the exception of Nipco, were granted approvals to import Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel.

The fresh approvals follow an earlier batch of petrol import permits issued by the regulator in May, covering about 720,000 metric tonnes.

Quoting a regulatory source, Argus reported that many of the companies granted the latest approvals were among those that had received permits in previous rounds. “These are some of the same ones that previously received the PMS permits,” the source was quoted as saying.

According to sources cited by the publication, AA Rano and Matrix Energy each received approvals to import 180,000 metric tonnes of petrol. AYM Shafa received approval for 120,000 metric tonnes, while Pinnacle Oil received a permit covering 150,000 metric tonnes.

For diesel imports, Argus reported that AYM Shafa obtained a permit for 60,000 metric tonnes, while Pinnacle secured approval for 45,000 metric tonnes. The report stated that the import approvals were issued only recently after being delayed from an initial target date of June 15.

The report read, “The Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has issued clean product import permits for July to address supply shortages, according to sources. Domestic firms AA Rano, AYM Shafa, Bono, Nipco, Matrix and Pinnacle received gasoline import permits, while the same companies – minus Nipco – received gasoil import permits for the third quarter, sources said.

“The recipients are some of the same ones that [previously] received the PMS [gasoline] permits,” according to a regulatory source. A regulatory source quoted by the publication said the permits were approved to forestall projected supply gaps in the country’s fuel market.

“The permits were issued to head off projected shortfalls in supply”, the source said. “Issuance is still ongoing, so the final volume cannot be determined right now. But gasoline permits will likely be above 800,000T”, the source continued.

If achieved, the projected volume would exceed the total quantity approved under the second-quarter import programme. The approvals come at a time when fuel inventories are showing signs of tightening.

According to data referenced by Argus, petrol stock sufficiency in Nigeria declined by 1.7 days to 16 days in May, while diesel stock sufficiency dropped by eight days to 31 days during the same period. Such declines often prompt regulators to take precautionary measures to ensure uninterrupted supply across the country.

The report linked the reduction in stock levels to lower gasoline production at the DPRP Lekki, Lagos.

According to figures cited by Argus, gasoline production at the refinery fell by 16 percent to 44.7 million litres per day, while diesel production increased by four per cent to 24.5 million litres daily.

Market participants quoted in the report attributed the drop in petrol output to maintenance activities on the refinery’s Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker, one of its major gasoline-producing units.

Argus reported that a source close to the refinery described suggestions linking increased exports of low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil and the maintenance programme as “partially correct” but declined to provide additional details.

The report also noted that recent movements in international fuel prices could make imports more attractive to independent marketers.

Argus said front-month Eurobob oxy swaps, increasingly used as the benchmark for gasoline trade in West Africa, averaged $946.25 per tonne in June, down from $1,128.50 per tonne during the corresponding period in May.

Similarly, offshore Lomé ship-to-ship diesel prices averaged $1,093.50 per tonne in June, compared to $1,409.25 per tonne in May. The lower international prices are expected to improve import economics for marketers seeking to supplement domestic supply.

Despite the availability of import permits, however, the report suggested that marketers may not fully utilise all approved volumes.

According to preliminary vessel-tracking data from Kpler cited by Argus, independent marketers are expected to import about 354,000 metric tonnes of petrol during the current quarter.

The figure is substantially lower than the 720,000 metric tonnes approved under the second-quarter permit programme. The sources attributed the gap partly to the timing of the approvals, noting that marketers had limited time to execute import plans because the permits were issued midway through the quarter.

In the background of reports of Nigerian fuel marketers re-importing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) processed products through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lomé, official trade data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Togo imported up to N105 billion worth of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from Nigeria.

The export figure was contained in the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Foreign Trade Statistics Report for the first quarter of 2026. According to the report, PMS ranked among Nigeria’s major petroleum exports to the neighbouring country during the period.

The development highlights a dramatic shift in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, which for years depended heavily on imported petrol due to inadequate domestic refining capacity.

Nigeria imported approximately $117m worth of petroleum oils (petrol/refined products) from Togo in 2023, and $72–77m in 2024.

It was gathered from the report that 2026 Q1 petrol exports to Togo were valued at N105.50bn, making the product one of the most significant energy commodities shipped from Nigeria to the West African nation.

The data further showed that gas oil exports to Togo stood at N278.36bn, while kerosene-type jet fuel exports were valued at N273.18bn. Crude petroleum oil exports amounted to N220.14bn, while partially refined oil, including crude oil that had undergone primary refinement, was valued at N89.83bn.

The emergence of petrol as a major export commodity follows the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has significantly increased the country’s refining output and transformed fuel supply dynamics within the sub-region.

The latest figures come amid revelations that petroleum products refined by the DPRP are increasingly dominating fuel movements across West Africa, with Togo’s offshore trading hub in Lomé playing a strategic role in regional distribution.

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An official of S&P Global Commodity Insights, Matthew Tracey-Cook, last Thursday disclosed that Nigerian fuel marketers have been importing refined petroleum products originating from the DPRP through the offshore ship-to-ship trading hub in Lomé, Togo.

Speaking during a webinar organised by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, Tracey-Cook said Dangote-produced fuel now accounts for the majority of waterborne petroleum products imported into Nigeria.

“Dangote volumes on a coastal basis do arrive back in Lagos from Lomé. Over the last six months, if you look at the volume of products on a waterborne basis that’s imported directly into Nigeria, Dangote production has become increasingly dominant,” he stated.

Providing further insight into the changing regional trade pattern, he added, “For several months, from March until May, we saw well over 70 to 80 per cent of the volumes that were imported into Nigeria actually originated from Dangote; from their coastal Dangote volumes which were re-imported.”

According to him, similar trends have emerged in the diesel market, reflecting the refinery’s growing influence on fuel movements within the region.

“The increasing importance of the Dangote Refinery in terms of product that’s flowing into Nigeria is really evident from the data,” Tracey-Cook said.

He explained that despite growing direct coastal deliveries from the refinery, the Lomé offshore hub remains a critical component of West Africa’s fuel logistics chain.

According to him, the facility allows large tankers to discharge cargoes offshore before transferring products to smaller vessels capable of accessing ports across the region.

“Lomé has become an increasingly important transshipment hub for filling regional shortages across the region. It serves an important purpose, given that many ports in West Africa don’t have the capacity to take a fully laden medium-range vessel,” he stated.

The NBS figures suggest that Nigeria is gradually consolidating its position as a regional supplier of refined petroleum products following decades of fuel import dependence.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) supplied about 5.84 billion litres of petrol to the Nigerian market in the first five months of 2026, which amounts to about 81.4 percent of total supply.

This was detailed in trend statistics from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) for the period.

This is as the legal fireworks from the matter instituted by the DPRP over the continued importation of the product into Nigeria continue ragging.

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A review of supply data for January to May showed that the refinery supplied approximately 5.836 billion litres of petrol during the period, while importers brought in about 1.330 billion litres, bringing total market supply to roughly 7.166 billion litres.

Further checks indicated that for every litre of imported petrol, Dangote supplied about 4.4 litres, reinforcing the refinery’s growing dominance of Nigeria’s downstream market.

According to the data, the refinery supplied an average of 40.1 million litres per day in January, translating to about 1.243 billion litres for the month, while marketers imported 24.8 million litres daily or approximately 768.8 million litres during the same period.

This means that during that month, Dangote accounted for 61.8 per cent of combined supply, while imports represented 38.2 per cent. Besides, national petrol consumption averaged 60.2 million litres per day during the month, while the refinery operated at 61.27 percent capacity utilisation.

In February, the data showed that the DPRP supplied 36.6 million litres daily, equivalent to about 1.025 billion litres for the month, while imports plunged to 3 million litres per day or 84 million litres in total.

The refinery’s share of market supply rose sharply to 92.4 percent, leaving imports with just 7.6 percent. Consumption averaged 56.9 million litres daily, while capacity utilisation increased significantly to 78.24 percent.

The figures come amid an ongoing court case initiated by the DPRP seeking to halt the issuance of import licences for petrol and other refined petroleum products that can be sufficiently produced locally. The refinery has argued that continued importation undermines investments, discourages domestic refining and weakens Nigeria’s drive towards energy independence.

Also, the DPRP and supporters of the refinery’s position contend that by banning imports, Nigeria would conserve scarce foreign exchange, create jobs and deepen industrialisation. They maintain that allowing substantial imports into a market where local production capacity exists sends the wrong signal to investors.

However, the oil marketers and other stakeholders opposed to a complete halt in imports have argued that maintaining access to foreign supplies remains necessary to guarantee competition and prevent excessive market concentration.

According to them, allowing multiple suppliers helps ensure price discovery, protects consumers from potential supply disruptions and prevents a situation in which a single dominant refinery effectively controls the market. A fully liberalised downstream sector, they argue, should permit marketers to source products from any supplier, local or foreign, provided they meet regulatory requirements and offer competitive pricing.

Similarly, according to them, imports provide an important balancing mechanism and ensure that supply remains stable whenever local production falls below national demand. The outcome of the legal dispute is expected to shape the future structure of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

Still on the NMDPRA data, in March, Dangote supplied 34.2 million litres per day, amounting to approximately 1.060 billion litres during the month. Marketers imported 5.9 million litres daily or about 182.9 million litres in total. During that month, Dangote’s share of supply stood at 85.3 percent compared to imports’ 14.7 percent. Also, national consumption averaged 47.3 million litres daily, while refinery utilisation climbed further to 93.62 percent.

In April, the refinery supplied 40.7 million litres daily or approximately 1.221 billion litres during the month, while imports stood at 3.7 million litres daily, translating to about 111 million litres. Dangote accounted for 91.7 per cent of total supply, while imports represented 8.3 percent, with national consumption averaging 51.1 million litres daily and the refinery operating at 99.22 percent utilisation.

In the same vein, in May, the Dangote Refinery supplied 41.5 million litres daily, equivalent to approximately 1.287 billion litres during the month, while imports stood at 5.9 million litres daily or about 182.9 million litres in total.

The DPRP’s market share for the month stood at 87.5 percent compared to imports’ 12.5 percent, while national consumption averaged 47.4 million litres daily. The refinery utilisation reached 101.25 percent, the highest so far since it started operation.

Overall, the analysis showed that the refinery’s capacity utilisation rose steadily from 61.27 percent in January to 101.25 percent in May, underscoring the increasing role of the facility in meeting domestic fuel demand.

Over the same period, imports declined dramatically from 768.8 million litres in January to 84 million litres in February before fluctuating between 111 million litres and 182.9 million litres in subsequent months.

The data further showed that the DPRP exceeded imported volumes by about 474.3 million litres in January, 940.8 million litres in February, 877.3 million litres in March, 1.110 billion litres in April and 1.104 billion litres in May, highlighting the widening gap between local refining output and imported supplies.