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Euro sags after inflation data, EM steady after rout

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LONDON – The euro fell and the bloc’s government bonds rallied on Friday as weaker-than-expected inflation data increased pressure on the European Central Bank to either cut rates or employ other easing tools at its meeting next week.

Eurostat’s first reading of January inflation showed it slowed back down to 0.7 percent, the level that saw the ECB catch markets off guard with a rate cut in November.

The banks sees 2 percent inflation as optimal for the region’s economy and with little chance of being anywhere near that level anytime soon, calls have been intensifying on it to take more aggressive action.

“It’s now more likely than ever that Draghi is going to have to step in with some extraordinary measure to stave off deflation,” said Aberdeen Asset Management fixed income investment analyst Luke Bartholomew.

Euro sags after inflation data, EM steady after rout“The big challenge is exactly what to do. With the store cupboard of conventional measures largely bare, any policy action is likely to be unprecedented.”

While more forward-looking data has painted a brighter picture for the euro zone and its debt strained periphery members, unemployment figures, which came alongside the inflation reading, remained at a record high.

Whatever form it takes, the prospect of more ECB easing sent the euro lower against its major currency peers and pushed down the all-import money market rates which are the benchmark for borrowing costs in the bloc.

The euro was last at $1.3541 against the dollar having started the week at $1.37, while euro zone government bonds which become more attractive the lower borrowing costs go, rallied. <GVD/EUR>

Although it is more likely to wait until March when it has new in-house forecasts available, the most obvious option available to Draghi and his fellow policymakers is to take rates even closer to zero, and in the case of the deposit rate that acts as floor for money rates, into negative territory.

But they could just as easily increase the amount of cash sloshing around the system by no longer “sterlising” the 170 billion euros of Italian, Spanish and other bonds bought at the peak of the euro crisis.

“It should keep speculation on the table that the ECB may have to take further action to help fight disinflation in the months ahead and as such could prove negative for the euro,” said Josh O’Byrne, FX Strategist at Citi.

SHARED PAIN

European shares .FTEU3 saw no gain from the data as they struggled to shake off the difficulties that have spread from emerging markets this week.

Britain’s FTSE 100 .FTSE and France’s CAC 40 .FCHI extended early losses to 0.7 and 0.9 percent respectively, while Germany’s DAX .GDAXI was nursing the biggest falls, dropping 1.3 percent as weaker than expected retail sales and pressure on Deutsche Bank added extra gloom.

European banking authorities sketched out some of the details of their upcoming stress tests, saying big banks would have to ensure they still had 5.5 percent in spare capital if another financial meltdown took place.

Lunar new year celebrations meant a number of bourses in Asia had been shut, but those that were still open remained weak as fears about the impact of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus withdrawal on emerging markets offset the reassurance of Thursday’s upbeat U.S. growth data.

Japan’s Nikkei stock average .N225 reversed sharply and ended down 0.6 percent as a resurgent yen, combined with data dousing hopes of more stimulus from the BOJ, left the index with its third worst January in 50 years.

For world stocks on MSCI’s 45-country, all-world index .MIWD00000PUS not only was it the end of their first down month in five, it was also their biggest monthly drop in almost two years.

“I think the BOJ is unlikely to adopt additional easing because there is no reason to justify it, given the positive macro-economic environment,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities.

EMERGING TENSIONS

In the currency market, the dollar .DXY gained the upper hand after the soft euro zone inflation reading while the yen hit a two-month high on the euro. The Turkish lira was also steadier after its torrid week at 2.2570 to the dollar.

Political issues in countries such as Turkey, South Africa and Argentina have amplified worries about economic imbalances, hammering their currencies and wiping over a trillion dollars off the value of world stocks this week.

Central banks in Turkey, South Africa and India have all reacted by hiking interest rates while Russia’s central bank has pledged unlimited foreign exchange interventions to keep the rouble in check.

On the commodities front, spot gold was nearly flat at $1,245.00 an ounce, but a 2-percent overnight fall following the strong U.S. GDP data was set to end a five-week rally.

Brent oil and U.S. crude hovered at $107.90 and $97.80 a barrel respectively while growth-attuned metal copper drifted toward a 4 percent monthly fall.

“The absence of the Chinese market for the next week means that we may see some further downside on commodities, especially if we do see the dollar gaining ground,” said Tim Radford, of Sydney-based metals adviser Rivkin.

– REUTERS

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PENGASSAN Urges Strategic Focus on Local Refining Expansion

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The Nigerian authorities have been called upon to focus on strengthening domestic refining capacity.

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) made the call in a communiqué issued at the end of the three-day PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit (PEALS 2026).

It stressed the need for adequate protection for refineries operating in the country.

The PENGASSAN said Nigeria must reduce the economic inefficiency of exporting crude oil while importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products by creating an environment that supports domestic refining and other value‑adding activities.

The communiqué, signed by the union President, Festus Osifo, and General Secretary, Jerry Amah, stressed the need to protect refineries, including Dangote Refinery and Waltersmith Refinery.

The association said the expansion would enable Nigeria to retain a greater share of the value generated from its petroleum resources while creating jobs, conserving foreign exchange and stimulating industrial development. PENGASSAN linked the growth to wider opportunities in petrochemicals, gas processing and other downstream activities.

READ ALSO: Umar Cautions Against Irregular Policies in Nigeria’s Oil Industry

The communiqué reads in part: “The summit called for sustained policies and investments to expand Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity and reduce the economic inefficiency of exporting crude oil while importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products. The need to protect refineries (such as Dangote Refinery, Waltersmith Refinery, etc.) within Nigeria’s jurisdiction was emphasised.

“Nigeria must progressively retain more value from its petroleum resources through domestic refining, petrochemicals, gas processing and other value‑adding activities capable of generating employment, conserving foreign exchange and stimulating industrial growth.

“Ultimately, the strength of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry will not be measured merely by the resources beneath the ground, but by the projects delivered, the value created, the Nigerian capabilities developed, the decent jobs sustained and the prosperity generated for the Nigerian people.”

The association also warned that abrupt policy changes, overlapping mandates, repetitive approvals and conflicting directives increase the cost of doing business and weaken Nigeria’s competitiveness for global energy capital.

The PENGASSAN called for faster regulatory approvals, digitalised processes and clearer timelines, arguing that the effectiveness of regulation should be measured by its impact on investment, production, government revenue, job creation and national value rather than simply by the number of licences or approvals issued.

On gas, the PENGASSAN advocated an integrated approach to developing Nigeria’s more than 215 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves, including investments in processing facilities, pipelines, storage, LNG, LPG and CNG infrastructure. It said gas should be deployed more aggressively for power generation, manufacturing, transportation, fertiliser and petrochemical production.

The association also urged stronger protection of workers’ rights, occupational safety and employment during mergers, acquisitions, divestments and asset transfers, saying sustainable investment requires skilled and fairly treated workers and that increased production must not come at the expense of workers’ lives and wellbeing.

In addition, the PENGASSAN said the next phase of Nigeria’s petroleum industry must focus on execution with measurable targets and clearly assigned responsibilities to ensure policies translate into projects, production, investment and sustainable employment.

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PENGASSAN to Link Up with NUPRC to Unlock 3mmbopd

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Two key stakeholders in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry have resolved to work closed to unlock three million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil by 2030.

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), according to the new President of former, Comrade Bosun Olabiyi-Agoro, would be working closely with each other to attain the objective.

He made the disclosure on Wednesday while on a visit to the NUPRC corporate headquarters.

The Head, Media and Corporate Communications, NUPRC, Eniola Akinkuotu, who made the disclosure in a statement, also credited the PENGASSAN President with declaring that inasmuch as the union is open to negotiations, issues bordering on the rights of workers to freely associate and join the union are non-negotiable.

READ ALSO: Tinubu Banks on NLNG Train 7 to Boost Nigeria’s Gas-led Economy

He made it public that issues surrounding contract staffing will be one of the key issues his administration will address.

“The President of Nigeria has an ambition which he runs through the CCE which is to make sure that by 2030 we are able to produce three million barrels per day. All of us have to work to make that happen. It will be our happiness to make sure that that target is actually attained. We can assure you that we are here to collaborate. We will be very reasonable,” Olabiyi-Agoro assured.

On her part, the Commission Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the President Bola Tinubu-led Federal Government had been working assiduously to increase production as evidenced by the latest executive order which is targeted at deep offshore investments. She noted that production had risen from a low of 1.1mmbopd a few years ago to an estimated 1.755mmbopd in 2026.

Seeking the support of PENGASSAN to achieve this target, Eyesan, said industrial stability remained critical to hitting higher production targets.

“As you settle into your new role, be assured that the commission will give you 150 per cent cooperation. In addition to the support we will give you, we want to ask that we work very closely to actualise government objectives.

“We want to grow production from our current level to 3 million barrels in 2030. For gas, we are still doing under 8bcf and we want to grow that to 12bcf by 2030. So, let’s make that happen,” she stated.

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Tinubu Banks on NLNG Train 7 to Boost Nigeria’s Gas-led Economy

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As the multi-billion-dollar Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) Train 7 Project reaches more than 90 percent completion, President Bola Tinubu has described it as critical to Nigeria’s gas-led economic agenda.

According to Tinubu, the successful delivery of the project would help expand Nigeria’s gas exports, create jobs, deepen local capacity and strengthen investor confidence in the country’s oil and gas sector.

The President spoke at the State House, Abuja, on Thursday when he received an NLNG delegation led by its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Adeleye Falade.

The delegation briefed the President on the progress of Train 7, prospects for further expansion and challenges affecting the company’s operations and contributions to the national economy.

The discussions also covered the pricing and accessibility of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), trucking along the Bonny-Bodo Road corridor, NLNG’s contribution to public revenue, its investments in the Bonny-Bodo Road and other social-impact projects, and the need for a more enabling business environment.

Tinubu congratulated Falade on his appointment, describing his assumption of office as coming at a defining period for the NLNG and Nigeria’s gas development ambitions.

Tinubu expressed the view that the completion of the Train 7 project must translate the country’s vast gas reserves into jobs, increased exports, industrial growth and long-term economic value.

“I congratulate you, Leye, on your appointment. Train 7 is at the centre of our national gas agenda. Its success matters not only to NLNG, but to Nigeria’s economic future,” the President said.

Tinubu commended the progress recorded on the project, describing Train 7 as a benchmark for project delivery, partnership, Nigerian content development and investor confidence.

He assured the NLNG management that the Federal Government would continue to improve the business environment, provide greater regulatory clarity and remove bottlenecks affecting major oil and gas investments.

“Nigeria is open for business, but it must be business that creates value at home — building capacity, supporting communities, protecting the environment and contributing to national prosperity. NLNG must continue to lead by example,” he added.

Responding, Falade thanked the President for his administration’s support for NLNG and the broader gas sector, assuring him that the company remained committed to the safe and successful completion of Train 7.

“With the project now over 90 percent complete, our immediate priority is to deliver the remaining work safely, efficiently and to the required quality, while preparing the plant for reliable and sustainable operations,” Falade said.

He said the project would increase Nigeria’s LNG production capacity, support export growth, create opportunities for Nigerian workers and businesses, deepen local participation and generate greater long-term value from the country’s gas resources.

Falade also restated NLNG’s commitment to supporting the domestic LPG market and improving access to cleaner cooking fuel for households and businesses.

He, however, called for coordinated action among the Federal Government, regulators and industry operators to increase domestic supply, improve storage and distribution infrastructure, eliminate avoidable costs and create a more transparent and efficient LPG market.

“Improving LPG accessibility is important to Nigeria’s energy transition and to the wellbeing of millions of Nigerian households. NLNG remains committed to supporting the domestic market, but improving affordability requires coordinated action across the entire LPG value chain,” he said.

The NLNG chief also sought the President’s intervention in addressing ease-of-doing-business challenges, particularly the proliferation of taxes, levies, charges and regulatory demands imposed by different tiers and agencies of government.

According to him, multiple and sometimes conflicting fiscal and regulatory obligations raise operating costs, create uncertainty and could discourage existing operations and future investments.

Falade assured the President that NLNG was ready to align more closely with the Federal Government’s development agenda and explore additional areas of partnership.

The meeting ended with a renewed commitment by the Federal Government and NLNG to sustain momentum on Train 7 as the project enters its final phase.

Both sides also agreed to strengthen their partnership to support the project’s successful delivery and NLNG’s broader contribution to Nigeria’s gas development and economic growth.

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