Business
First China Default Seen as Record $427 Billion Debt Due
BEIJING – Chinese company debt twice the size of Ireland’s economy will come due in 2014, spurring concern the nation is on the cusp of its first corporate bond default.
A record 2.6 trillion yuan ($427 billion) of interest and principal on securities issued by non-financial companies must be repaid next year, 19 percent more than this year and the most since China International Capital Corp. began compiling the data in 2008. Ten-year AAA corporate bond yields surged 89 basis points since Dec. 31 to 6.18 percent, touching a record 6.23 percent on Nov. 27. That compares with a 70 basis-point rise to 2.68 percent for similar-rated notes globally.
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s signal the central bank will act to prevent excessive leverage has contributed to the surge in borrowing costs and forced many firms to delay financing plans. Rising interest rates may cause a “partial debt crisis to explode,” the official China Securities Journal said in a Nov. 26 editorial.
“The probability of default will get much higher in 2014 as maturing debt reaches a record,” said Shi Lei, the Beijing-based head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities Co., a unit of the nation’s second-biggest insurance company. “The central bank’s policy of controlling leverage, which may last a long time, will crowd out companies with bad credit profiles and, ultimately, help restructure the economy.”
Sales Pulled
Bond sales by Chinese companies are down 23 percent to 1.57 trillion yuan this half-to-date compared with the first six months of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Companies postponed or scrapped 96.1 billion yuan of bonds in November compared with 29.8 billion yuan the month prior, according to filings on the websites of Chinamoney, Chinabond and Shanghai Clearing House.
The 2.6 trillion yuan of debt due next year consists of a record 2.13 trillion yuan of notes which must be redeemed, and a record 470 billion yuan in interest, the CICC data show. Investors also have options to sell some 200 billion yuan of bonds back to issuers, according to CICC.
Prominent Problems
There have been no defaults in China’s publicly traded domestic debt market since the central bank started regulating it in 1997, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Guosen Securities Co. estimates Chinese non-financial companies’ debt ratios reached 93 percent last year, while the average in Asia hasn’t surpassed 70 percent in the last 10 years, according to a report released on Dec. 2.
The central bank warned on Nov. 5 the economy may see a decline in leverage over a long period, and said there are “prominent” problems in local government and property industry borrowings. China’s broad debt ratio has also been rising sharply, PBOC Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian said on Nov. 20.
Following the Communist Party’s Nov. 9-12 plenum, China’s leaders pledged to allow market forces a “decisive” role in the allocation of resources. Societe Generale SA China economist Yao Wei said the announcement signals the government may stop saving troubled companies which can’t meet debt obligations and allow the first bond default in the coming 12 months.
‘Doomed Companies’
“If the government is going to let market forces play an important role, it should let those doomed companies fail,” said Yao in Hong Kong. “In industries with overcapacity, such as steel and shipbuilding, there’s a higher likelihood of bond defaults.”
Credit risks are most concentrated in highly leveraged sectors, including heavy industries, according to Ping An’s Shi, who said rising borrowing costs will begin to have a “real effect” on the world’s second-largest economy next year. Corporate bond yields may rise to even higher levels in the first half of 2014, he said.
Xinyu Iron & Steel Co. (600782), a Jiangxi-based steelmaker which reported a loss of 175 million yuan for the January to September period, has 3.25 billion yuan of borrowings due in 2014, compared with 0.31 billion yuan in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield on the company’s AA+ locally rated 2016 debt has almost doubled this year to 10.5 percent as of Dec. 6, according to exchange data.
The yield on five-year AA rated corporate bonds has risen 125 basis points this year to 7.26 percent, according to Chinabond. The rate on similar-maturity government debt climbed 116 basis points to 4.39 percent. The gap widened 8 basis points to 287.
Debt Burdens
“Companies are facing heavy debt burdens and cash supply is tight. All these factors will make bond defaults very likely,” said Dong Hui, a bond analyst at China Securities Co. in Beijing. “But it’s hard to judge whether the first will happen next year. After all, no local governments want companies in their localities to be the first to default.”
Electricity companies have to repay 520 billion yuan in bond principal and interest next year, the most among all industries, according to CICC, which took out third place for fixed-income research in New Fortune magazine this year. That’s followed by local government financing vehicles, which must repay 239 billion yuan.
As default concerns escalate, the cost of insuring the nation’s debt against non-payment is edging higher. China’s credit-default swaps increased 2.1 basis points last week to 67.5 as of Dec. 6, according to data provider CMA. The swaps rose 1.4 basis points the week prior, advancing for the first time since the five days ended Oct. 25, the data show.
Cash Supply
The yuan advanced to the strongest level in 20 years today after the central bank raised the currency’s daily fixing to a record and the nation’s trade surplus widened to the biggest in more than four years. It rose 0.15 percent to 6.0726 per dollar as of 10:04 a.m. in Shanghai, China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices show.
Guotai Junan Securities Co. Shanghai-based bond analyst Li Qing said China’s slowing economy will also increase default probabilities next year. Guotai Junan, the nation’s third-biggest brokerage, forecast economic growth will slow to 7.3 percent next year, from 7.6 percent in 2013.
“Cash supply will probably remain tight and the economy may decelerate from the second quarter of next year,” said Li. The premium on bonds rated AA or lower may widen further, she said.
SocGen’s Yao said some companies averted defaults in 2012 because local governments stepped in to help. CHTC Helon Co., the fiber maker which used to be called Shandong Helon Co. (000677) and became the first company to lose its investment-grade rating in December 2011, repaid 400 million yuan of bonds in April 2012 even as it failed to make loan repayments.
“Whether there’ll be a bond default or not is mostly a political decision,” said Yao. “Huge maturing debt and cash shortages provide conditions for the first default to happen. But whether it will depends on the leadership’s willingness to make the right choices.”
– BLOOMBERG
Business
Nigeria Looks to New Oil Markets to Decrease Dependence on OPEC – PETAN
In the face of continued global crude market disruptions, Nigeria is gearing efforts towards new markets.
Chairman, the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN), Wole Ogunsanya, made the revelation at the opening ceremony of the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas on Monday.
He opined that Nigeria must move beyond traditional buyers and aggressively seek alternative markets to remain competitive and maximise revenue.
According to him, recent developments within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), including moves by some members to act independently, signal the need for Nigeria to rethink its crude marketing strategy.
“We must start developing markets outside our traditional destinations. It is not enough to rely solely on OPEC frameworks; we need to secure buyers for our crude in a more proactive manner,” he said.
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Ogunsanya noted that Nigeria produces some of the best crude grades globally and should leverage this advantage to penetrate new markets across Africa, Europe and other regions.
He stressed that expanding market access has become even more critical as Nigeria pushes to increase oil production and support the growing capacity of domestic refineries.
“With refining capacity in Nigeria expected to ramp up significantly, we must ensure consistent supply while also identifying external markets for excess production,” he added.
The PETAN chairman said participation in OTC provides a strategic platform to engage potential investors, partners and off-takers, as well as to showcase Nigeria’s capabilities in the oil and gas sector.
He also highlighted ongoing efforts to strengthen collaboration among African countries through the African Local Content initiative, which he said would support cross-border investments and market expansion.
Ogunsanya further emphasised the need for improved efficiency and adoption of modern technology to keep Nigeria’s crude competitive in the global market.
He warned that failure to secure new markets could expose the country to price volatility and reduced earnings, especially in a rapidly changing global energy landscape.
Despite challenges such as visa constraints affecting participation at this year’s OTC, he said Nigeria’s strong presence at the conference demonstrates its determination to remain a key player in the global oil and gas industry.
Business
Exxon, Chevron’s Q1 Earnings Down 46%, 37% Despite Soaring Oil Prices
As crude oil deliveries bow to supply disruptions in the Middle East, oil giants, Exxon Mobil and Chevron have reported drops in profit in the first quarter of 2026 despite surging oil prices.
Exxon’s quarterly earnings fell to $4.2 billion from about $7.7 billion the same quarter last year, a decline of about 46 per cent, while Chevron’s profits fell to $2.2 billion from about $3.5 billion, down about 37 per cent. Still, both companies beat Wall Street expectations.
However, America’s two largest oil companies are still expected to eventually reap the benefits of soaring oil prices, which reached levels unseen since 2022 this week as the war in Iran continues, Reuters reported.
In a prepared statement, Exxon said that “timing effects” and volume impacts in the Middle East reduced reported earnings; when excluding those effects, the company reported $8.8 billion in profit. At Chevron, unfavourable timing effects totaled about $3 billion for the quarter, according to the company.
“One of the things that we called out in our press release was the timing,” Darren Woods, Exxon’s chair and chief executive officer, said in an interview. “As you close the quarter in the volatile market, you book the hedges, the paper, but the physical barrels are in inventory until they get delivered.
“So you get this deferred profit that we wanted to basically highlight, and make sure that our investors understood that the work that we’re actually doing to meet the demands today are resulting in benefits not necessarily booked in the quarter,” Woods added.
ALSO READ: NNPC Ltd, Chinese Firms Ink MoU to Revive, Expand Warri, Port Harcourt Refineries
At the start of the war, Donald Trump declared on Truth Social: “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”
Certain oil and gas companies are already reaping the benefits. BP announced that its profits more than doubled in the last quarter, crediting “exceptional oil trading” for its highest quarterly profit since 2023 – an announcement that led advocacy groups and some European finance ministers to call for greater taxes on windfall profits.
Other earnings reports indicate that it may take longer for oil companies to report clear gains. ConocoPhillips, a partner in Qatar’s state gas company, cut its forecast annual output due to disruptions in Qatar’s liquified natural gas operations caused by the war. Iranian attacks on QatarEnergy LNG’s export plant will take years to repair, state energy officials have said.
Chevron and Exxon’s stock jumped at the start of the war but eased in April as the US and Iran agreed on a ceasefire and the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. And Lockheed Martin, a key defense contractor with the federal government, initially saw its stock jump 25 per cent since the start of the year, but has since dropped to roughly the same levels.
Meanwhile, gas prices at the pump continue to climb, with the current average reaching $4.39, up from $3.187 a year ago. Americans are also facing fears of elevated inflation and slow job growth amid turmoil in the Middle East.
Business
OPEC+ Hikes Oil Production Quotas, Silent on UAE Pull-out
Saudi Arabia, Russia and five other OPEC+ countries increased their oil production quota on Sunday in an expected move aimed at demonstrating continuity at the cartel after the shock withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates.
The seven major producers will add 188,000 barrels per day to their total production quota for June amid the price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war, as part of “their collective commitment to support oil market stability”, according to a statement published by OPEC+.
The statement, following an online meeting of Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, made no mention of the United Arab Emirates, which quit the body on Friday, three days after announcing its withdrawal.
Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon told AFP that the silence on the UAE’s departure was a sign of tense relations.
Oil market analysts had widely expected the increase of 188,000 barrels, similar to the 206,000-barrel daily increases OPEC+ announced in both March and April when the portion allotted to the UAE was subtracted.
ALSO READ: NUPRC, NLNG Deepen Collaboration to Raise Gas Production
“By sticking to the same production path — just minus the UAE — it’s acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” Leon said.
Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Remains
But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.
Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.
Leon, the Rystad Energy analyst, told AFP on Sunday that the cartel was looking to send “a two-layer message” that the UAE’s exit would not disrupt how OPEC+ operates and that the group still exerts control over global oil markets despite massive disruption to oil trade due to the war.
“While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints,” Leon told AFP. “This is less about adding barrels and more about signalling that OPEC+ still calls the shots.”
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter’s production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.
“Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” said Priya Walia, another analyst at Rystad Energy, ahead of Sunday’s meeting.
Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.
Russia, the group’s second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on and Ukrainian drones hit oil industry facilities.
‘A Big Deal’
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, described the UAE’s exist as “a big deal” for OPEC.
Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, Bakr told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.
The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 — far above the country’s last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.
ADNOC also pledged on Sunday to spend $55 billion on new projects over the next two years, confirming that the company is “accelerating growth and delivery of its strategy”.
There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.
AFP





