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First China Default Seen as Record $427 Billion Debt Due

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BEIJING – Chinese company debt twice the size of Ireland’s economy will come due in 2014, spurring concern the nation is on the cusp of its first corporate bond default.

A record 2.6 trillion yuan ($427 billion) of interest and principal on securities issued by non-financial companies must be repaid next year, 19 percent more than this year and the most since China International Capital Corp. began compiling the data in 2008. Ten-year AAA corporate bond yields surged 89 basis points since Dec. 31 to 6.18 percent, touching a record 6.23 percent on Nov. 27. That compares with a 70 basis-point rise to 2.68 percent for similar-rated notes globally.

People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s signal the central bank will act to prevent excessive leverage has contributed to the surge in borrowing costs and forced many firms to delay financing plans. Rising interest rates may cause a “partial debt crisis to explode,” the official China Securities Journal said in a Nov. 26 editorial.

china president xi jinping“The probability of default will get much higher in 2014 as maturing debt reaches a record,” said Shi Lei, the Beijing-based head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities Co., a unit of the nation’s second-biggest insurance company. “The central bank’s policy of controlling leverage, which may last a long time, will crowd out companies with bad credit profiles and, ultimately, help restructure the economy.”

Sales Pulled

Bond sales by Chinese companies are down 23 percent to 1.57 trillion yuan this half-to-date compared with the first six months of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Companies postponed or scrapped 96.1 billion yuan of bonds in November compared with 29.8 billion yuan the month prior, according to filings on the websites of Chinamoney, Chinabond and Shanghai Clearing House.

The 2.6 trillion yuan of debt due next year consists of a record 2.13 trillion yuan of notes which must be redeemed, and a record 470 billion yuan in interest, the CICC data show. Investors also have options to sell some 200 billion yuan of bonds back to issuers, according to CICC.

Prominent Problems

There have been no defaults in China’s publicly traded domestic debt market since the central bank started regulating it in 1997, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Guosen Securities Co. estimates Chinese non-financial companies’ debt ratios reached 93 percent last year, while the average in Asia hasn’t surpassed 70 percent in the last 10 years, according to a report released on Dec. 2.

The central bank warned on Nov. 5 the economy may see a decline in leverage over a long period, and said there are “prominent” problems in local government and property industry borrowings. China’s broad debt ratio has also been rising sharply, PBOC Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian said on Nov. 20.

Following the Communist Party’s Nov. 9-12 plenum, China’s leaders pledged to allow market forces a “decisive” role in the allocation of resources. Societe Generale SA China economist Yao Wei said the announcement signals the government may stop saving troubled companies which can’t meet debt obligations and allow the first bond default in the coming 12 months.

‘Doomed Companies’

“If the government is going to let market forces play an important role, it should let those doomed companies fail,” said Yao in Hong Kong. “In industries with overcapacity, such as steel and shipbuilding, there’s a higher likelihood of bond defaults.”

Credit risks are most concentrated in highly leveraged sectors, including heavy industries, according to Ping An’s Shi, who said rising borrowing costs will begin to have a “real effect” on the world’s second-largest economy next year. Corporate bond yields may rise to even higher levels in the first half of 2014, he said.

Xinyu Iron & Steel Co. (600782), a Jiangxi-based steelmaker which reported a loss of 175 million yuan for the January to September period, has 3.25 billion yuan of borrowings due in 2014, compared with 0.31 billion yuan in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield on the company’s AA+ locally rated 2016 debt has almost doubled this year to 10.5 percent as of Dec. 6, according to exchange data.

The yield on five-year AA rated corporate bonds has risen 125 basis points this year to 7.26 percent, according to Chinabond. The rate on similar-maturity government debt climbed 116 basis points to 4.39 percent. The gap widened 8 basis points to 287.

Debt Burdens

“Companies are facing heavy debt burdens and cash supply is tight. All these factors will make bond defaults very likely,” said Dong Hui, a bond analyst at China Securities Co. in Beijing. “But it’s hard to judge whether the first will happen next year. After all, no local governments want companies in their localities to be the first to default.”

Electricity companies have to repay 520 billion yuan in bond principal and interest next year, the most among all industries, according to CICC, which took out third place for fixed-income research in New Fortune magazine this year. That’s followed by local government financing vehicles, which must repay 239 billion yuan.

As default concerns escalate, the cost of insuring the nation’s debt against non-payment is edging higher. China’s credit-default swaps increased 2.1 basis points last week to 67.5 as of Dec. 6, according to data provider CMA. The swaps rose 1.4 basis points the week prior, advancing for the first time since the five days ended Oct. 25, the data show.

Cash Supply

The yuan advanced to the strongest level in 20 years today after the central bank raised the currency’s daily fixing to a record and the nation’s trade surplus widened to the biggest in more than four years. It rose 0.15 percent to 6.0726 per dollar as of 10:04 a.m. in Shanghai, China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices show.

Guotai Junan Securities Co. Shanghai-based bond analyst Li Qing said China’s slowing economy will also increase default probabilities next year. Guotai Junan, the nation’s third-biggest brokerage, forecast economic growth will slow to 7.3 percent next year, from 7.6 percent in 2013.

“Cash supply will probably remain tight and the economy may decelerate from the second quarter of next year,” said Li. The premium on bonds rated AA or lower may widen further, she said.

SocGen’s Yao said some companies averted defaults in 2012 because local governments stepped in to help. CHTC Helon Co., the fiber maker which used to be called Shandong Helon Co. (000677) and became the first company to lose its investment-grade rating in December 2011, repaid 400 million yuan of bonds in April 2012 even as it failed to make loan repayments.

“Whether there’ll be a bond default or not is mostly a political decision,” said Yao. “Huge maturing debt and cash shortages provide conditions for the first default to happen. But whether it will depends on the leadership’s willingness to make the right choices.”

– BLOOMBERG

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Nigerian Airline Decries Impact of Global Oil Crisis

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Global oil market disruptions occasioned by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions involving the United States and Iran cost Nigeria’s domestic airlines operators dearly.

The Chairman of United Nigeria Airlines and spokesperson for the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), Prof Obiora Okonkwo, made the assertion, adding that his airline alone lost about N10bn within three months of the impasse.

According to Okonkwo, the geopolitical crisis triggered a rise in aviation fuel prices, worsening operating conditions for domestic carriers already battling high operating costs and infrastructure challenges.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is regarded as the world’s most critical oil transit route, handling nearly 20 percent of global petroleum shipments. Its disruption sent shockwaves through global energy markets and significantly impacted Nigeria’s aviation industry.

He spoke during the unveiling of two newly acquired Boeing 737-800 Next Generation aircraft, registered as 5N-CFC and 5N-CFB, by United Nigeria Airlines. The aircraft were named after the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe, and the late literary icon Chinua Achebe.

Reflecting on the airline’s recent challenges, Okonkwo acknowledged that reforms introduced by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, had helped stabilise the sector, but external economic pressures remained severe.

“There are seasons when there are low passengers, but in the last three months, what we have seen is simply too much. We have lost about N10bn, N5bn, N6bn in a space of three months as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We have to make up for the losses we have incurred in the last three months,” he said.

Despite the setbacks, the airline chief described the acquisition of the new aircraft as a major milestone and a sign of resilience in the Nigerian aviation sector.

“We have gathered here to celebrate. Two, three, four years ago, it was not clear what the future of aviation would be. There were issues, and in Nigeria, aviation was in total turmoil. But until our minister, Festus Keyamo, stepped in, we had a meeting in his office where he promised he would address the policy issues. Today, the right policies have helped us come this far,” he added.

Speaking on the choice of names for the aircraft, Okonkwo paid tribute to both Chinua Achebe and the Obi of Onitsha.

“Today we have one Achebe that introduced Africa to the whole world. He is from my hometown. Wherever I go around the world, I tell them that Okonkwo in Things Fall Apart is my great-great-grandfather. We have another Achebe who is a living legend and icon. We have here the Obi of Onitsha, Nnaemeka Achebe,” he said.

Providing insight into the airline’s expansion plans, he revealed that the newly acquired aircraft are part of a broader fleet acquisition programme, promising that more aircraft will arrive in the country before the year runs out.

“It is going to be six aircraft in total, and we just have two here. I thank God Almighty for making this possible,” he said.

Okonkwo also commended the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority for expediting the certification process for the aircraft, describing the regulator’s support as crucial to the airline’s growth.

“We are thankful to the DG of the NCAA who has made our services possible. I had told him I had three aircraft that were arriving. Three of his directors came to our office on a Saturday, prepared all the documents, inspected the aircraft, and issued all the certificates. The process of operating aircraft won’t be easy without ease in certifications,” he said.

ALSO READ: Adeleke Credits Judiciary with Key to Survival of Nigeria’s Democracy

The airline chairman further highlighted the operational difficulties airlines face daily, stressing that delays are often caused by factors beyond the control of carriers.

“I know we have passengers in Nigeria that want to get to their destinations. The important thing is to get passengers to their destinations safely and in time. The truth of the matter is that the operator wants to take you there on time.

“That you buy a ticket doesn’t put money in our pockets, because you can demand a refund. Sometimes we meet situations beyond our control. When one aircraft goes bad, we start to work on the schedule so we don’t leave anyone behind. Sometimes it is a bird strike, sometimes it could be because of airport availability,” he explained.

Okonkwo also criticised the financial structure governing aviation agencies, arguing that excessive deductions from the revenues of the NCAA and the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria were limiting their ability to improve infrastructure and service delivery.

“Minister, we are not happy with the recent report from IATA that Nigeria is the most expensive place to operate. It means it costs operators more to operate. We want a reduction in the charges,” he said.

“The government yanks 70 per cent from the aviation accounts to do other things that are not aviation-related, and this strains the NCAA and FAAN. If we leave these monies in their accounts, they will be encouraged to provide the needed services. The core aspect of the Nigerian economy is driven by aviation. In conclusion, when this is done, the government can also provide a single-digit loan,” he added.

Speaking on behalf of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Executive Sales Director for Africa, Moore Ibekwe, said recent reforms in Nigeria’s aviation sector have improved access to financing, strengthened regulatory compliance and enhanced safety standards, creating a more attractive environment for aircraft acquisition and industry growth.

According to him, the improvements have enabled Nigerian operators to acquire new-generation aircraft and expand technical capacity.

He noted that Boeing recently launched a training programme in Nigeria, with its engineers providing hands-on training for local professionals. Ibekwe added that the newly acquired Boeing 737 aircraft would create significant opportunities for the country’s aviation industry and broader economy.

“The country needs about 1,200 aircraft. If we get a good percentage of these aircraft, the sky will not be our limit. We have the manpower, capability, and finances. Aviation is global; it creates good-paying jobs, opens up the economy, and positions Nigeria on the world stage in science, technology, finance, fashion, and entertainment,” he said.

Also speaking, the Obi of Onitsha, Igwe Nnaemeka Achebe, expressed gratitude after one of the newly inducted aircraft was named in his honour alongside the late literary icon Chinua Achebe. “I am overwhelmed. I’m lost for words. It is a day of gratitude,” he said.

Also speaking at the event, the Minister of Aviation expressed delight at developments in the country’s aviation industry.

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Post-war Rate Dilemma, Inflation, Lower Oil Prices Rattle CBN

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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to face one of its most dicey policy decisions in months with easing global oil prices following the United States-Iran ceasefire being made worse by persistent domestic inflationary pressures, a report from SBM Intelligence said on Wednesday.

The ceasefire agreement, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, triggered a sharp decline in global crude prices, with Brent crude falling from a peak of about $114 per barrel to nearly $101 per barrel.

The development has eased fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions and raised expectations of moderation in fuel and transport costs across oil-importing economies.

For Nigeria, however, the policy implications are far more complex, the SBM report titled; ‘The Persian Trap Aftermath: Has West Africa Escaped a Deeper Crisis?’ said.

During the conflict, rising oil prices pushed petrol pump prices from around N830 per litre to as high as N1,325, while diesel prices climbed above N1,550 per litre, worsening transport costs and food inflation.

The resulting price shocks, the firm said, contributed to a sustained rise in consumer prices and complicated the CBN’s inflation-fighting efforts.

ALSO REAS: US-Iran Deal over Strait of Hormuz May Cost Nigeria up to N13trn

Data from SBM Intelligence showed that 82.7 percent of traders surveyed across major Nigerian cities reported price increases linked directly to the conflict, while 76.4 percent experienced significant increases in transportation costs.

Headline inflation rose to 15.93 percent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, while food inflation stood at 16.96 percent year-on-year (y/y).

The SBM Jollof Index, which tracks the cost of preparing a standard family-sized pot of jollof rice, reached N30,435 in April, 19.4 percent from N25,486 six months earlier, before easing slightly to N29,800 as of early June.

Against this backdrop, the MPC maintained the benchmark Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 percent throughout the conflict, prioritising exchange-rate stability, foreign investor confidence and inflation control, according to its chairman, Olayemi Cardoso.

Hence, SBM Intelligence says the committee now faces a difficult balancing act.

According to the research and strategic communications consulting firm, with oil prices retreating and the immediate supply shock fading, pressure may grow on policymakers to begin discussing a gradual easing cycle to support economic activity and reduce borrowing costs for businesses and households.

The firm warned that premature rate cuts could undermine recent gains in inflation management, particularly given lingering uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire agreement and broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

“We urge caution even so. Mine-clearance in the strait will take weeks, shipping backlogs at alternative ports need resolution, and the terms of the agreement may still “inject unease and uncertainty” if ratification stalls.

The IMF has welcomed the ceasefire but underlined that the risk of fresh energy disruptions remains elevated, particularly given the unresolved posture of Houthi forces in Yemen and the absence of any normalisation framework between Iran and Israel.

So the challenge ahead for the MPC is to engineer a measured easing cycle as global prices fall, without triggering renewed inflation if the ceasefire breaks down or if the US–Iran agreement stalls in ratification. This requires close monitoring of Hormuz mine-clearance progress and the resumption curve of Iranian export volumes”, the report said.

SBM Intelligence stressed that the situation highlights structural weaknesses within Nigeria’s economy. According to the firm, despite the country’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer and a growing exporter of refined petroleum products, domestic fuel pricing remains heavily exposed to international crude benchmarks.

It said that beyond inflation, lower oil prices could create fresh fiscal challenges for the government by reducing projected oil revenues at a time when public finances remain under pressure.

The report concluded that while the ceasefire has delivered welcome relief to global markets and Nigerian consumers, inflation remains above comfort levels, and the risk of renewed geopolitical tensions continues to cast a shadow over the economic outlook.

“The ceasefire offers a narrow window for West Africa to build resilience. Strategic fuel reserves and fertiliser buffer stocks, financed through import levies and distributed through market associations, would protect traders from future shocks.

Regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area must be accelerated to develop overland corridors as alternatives to Middle Eastern maritime routes. Investment in solar and off-grid energy is no longer a luxury but a commercial necessity.

The underlying vulnerabilities are unchanged: import dependence, thin fiscal buffers and exposure to chokepoints beyond West African control. The ceasefire is a diplomatic achievement, but the structural realignment of global trade that the war accelerated will persist. Another shock will come”, it said.

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Dangote Refinery Inspires Future Engineers as FUTO Students Experience Africa’s Largest Industrial Complex

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) reaffirmed commitment to nurturing the next generation of African engineers, innovators, and industrial leaders, when it hosted outstanding students from the Federal University of Technology, Owerri (FUTO) on an educational tour.

The visit was in fulfilment of a promise made by the President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, during the university’s 37th Public Lecture, where he pledged to expose exceptional students to world-class industrial operations. The initiative is aimed at bridging the gap between academic learning and real-world industry experience.

Led by the Vice Chancellor of FUTO, Prof Nnenna Oti, the delegation comprised top-performing students drawn from engineering, technology, and entrepreneurship disciplines.

Speaking during an interactive session with the students, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, David Bird, described the facility as a compelling demonstration of how innovation, advanced technology, and private sector investment can drive economic transformation while opening up opportunities for young Africans.

According to Bird, the refinery, widely regarded as the world’s largest single-train refinery, represents the peak of technological sophistication on the African continent.

“There is no better showcase of modern technology than the refinery that Alhaji Aliko Dangote has built here,” he said.

“What we have created is one of the world’s youngest, most modern, energy-efficient, highly automated, and data-rich refineries. It is also contributing to the decarbonisation of the oil and gas value chain while delivering cleaner fuels to Nigeria and West Africa.”

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He emphasised that exposure to facilities of this scale is critical to reshaping perceptions about Africa’s industrial sector.
“I am incredibly inspired by the curiosity, passion, and enthusiasm shown by these students. They are seeing first-hand that this industry is dynamic, innovative, and offers rewarding long-term career opportunities for highly skilled professionals,” Bird added.

He further disclosed that the refinery plans to deepen collaboration with universities and research institutions, particularly in emerging fields such as renewable energy and sustainable fuel technologies.

“Our objective is to stay closely aligned with universities, understand the research they are undertaking, and identify opportunities to support the commercialisation of innovative ideas. There are exciting developments around biofuels and other technologies shaping the future of energy,” he said.

In her remarks, Professor Oti described the visit as a transformative and life-changing experience for the students, noting that it aligns with ongoing efforts to strengthen partnerships between academia and industry.
She explained that the students were personally invited by Aliko Dangote following his lecture at the university earlier in the year.

“At the end of his lecture, he invited 15 female and 15 male students to visit his refinery and factories in Lagos as special guests. This was part of his vision to inspire the next generation, and today stands as a fulfilment of that promise,” she said.

According to the Vice Chancellor, the initiative provides a rare platform for students to connect classroom knowledge with practical industrial applications.

“This is what I describe as an Ivory Tower–Industry Partnership. There is no more effective way to bridge the gap between theory and practice than by exposing students to facilities of this scale,” she said. “These are some of our best students across mechanical, chemical, petroleum and software engineering, as well as entrepreneurship. This experience will undoubtedly broaden their horizons, expand their ambitions, and shape their future careers.”

She added that the visit underscores the transformative impact of visionary African entrepreneurship in driving industrialisation and economic growth.

For many of the students, the tour offered a unique opportunity to see firsthand the technologies and systems they had previously encountered only in theory.

A 500-level Mechanical Engineering student, Amadi Ijeoma Winfrey, described the experience as both enlightening and inspiring.

“The experience has been amazing,” she said. “Seeing the practical application of equipment such as pumps, compressors, and turbines has helped bridge the gap between theory and reality.”

She noted that witnessing the scale and sophistication of the refinery has strengthened her aspirations for a career in engineering and industrial development.

Similarly, a 500-level Chemical Engineering student, Israel Ifanyichukwu, described the visit as transformative, noting that it provided valuable insight into how classroom theories are applied on an industrial scale. He said the experience has not only broadened his perspective but also equipped him with knowledge he intends to apply in his academic and professional pursuits.

Also speaking, Professor Abraham Ngwuta, Director of the Centre for Entrepreneurial Studies, and Professor Chikwendu Emenike Orji, Dean of Students Affairs, described Aliko Dangote as a model entrepreneur whose diverse investments across critical sectors highlight the power of vision, discipline, and long-term value creation. They noted that his industrial footprint offers a practical framework for students to understand entrepreneurship as a driver of national development, job creation, and economic transformation.

The visit forms part of Dangote Industries’ broader commitment to advancing education, innovation, and skills development, as well as preparing a new generation of professionals capable of driving Africa’s industrial transformation.

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