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Forex: Speculation, Round-tripping, Account For Naira’s Continuous Fall

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Chief Executive Officer, Confederated Facilitators Limited (CFL) Group of companies, Lai Omotola has opined that the soaring dollar to naira rate, with adverse effects on Nigeria’s economy is not being driven by market forces but by wealthy elite businessmen whom he tagged, ‘market cabals’

He bared  his mind at a media parley organised by his company in commemoration of its 25th anniversary.

According to him, “I have never seen elite business people whose only business they do is to speculate on their currency. That’s the only business they do. All of them, in everything they are doing, the underlying factor is that they are speculating.

“And this is how they do it. They may have a manufacturing plant, no doubt about it. For instance, the manufacturing plant needs $10 million, so they need to buy dollars. But the truth of the matter is that nobody is investigating if their actual need is $10 million or if they need something lesser than what they say they need.

“So, most likely, they only needed $1 million, but they will collect $10 million. They will send the $1 million to their supplier, convert the remaining $9 million to Naira, and go and sell it to the black marketers. Now, when you have a gap of over N300 in the exchange rate and you are selling $9 million, you are making N270 million without having a staff or investing anywhere, but just taking dollars in and out.”

“That business is sweeter than cocaine, which is why all of them are locked into it, and that is why Naira today is moving towards N1,200 for a dollar. When this present government was floating the Naira, it was to make the difference between the Naira at the official market and the parallel market not to exceed N2. That’s the meaning of floating. But this government has forgotten that when you float the Naira, there is no dollar in the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, to back that Naira.

“And it’s a matter of demand and supply. Anything in life, if today more people are looking for a particular substance than what is available, the price of the substance would go up. It is fundamental economics. If fewer people are looking for it, the value will depreciate. That’s the issue of demand and supply. So when you now allow the Naira to float, when you don’t have enough dollars, guess those with the dollar. It’s with the market cabals, ”he said.

He added, “Nigeria’s economy is not powered by market forces. There is nothing called market forces in Nigeria’s economy. Nigeria’s economy is powered by market Cabals. Regulating the currency has moved from the hands of the CBN to the hands of the Market Cabals. Let me tell you how they operate. For instance, they know that Nigeria requires $100 million to have that floating that will keep the difference between the official rate and parallel market at N2.

“And the cabals are the ones that have the $100 million. So they will only release $50 million into the economy. Now, when you release $50 million, demand for the dollar will become much higher, and the supply will become lower, thereby influencing and increasing the price of the dollar to Naira. CBN cannot intervene because there is no dollar.

“So the market cabals always have dollars with them. And they work in circles. They have dollars with them, they are the ones supplying dollars to the market, and they make a hell of a profit from the circles. So which business can be better than that?”

He said in other nations, the need for dollars is only for raw materials, school fees payment, or other productive things. But in Nigeria, two things contribute to the need for dollars; corruption, which is bribery, and speculations.

He noted that productive need for the dollar is not up to 40 per cent, “and that is where the challenge is. How do you fight against this kind of behavioural pattern?

“So our business elites that have funded politicians to win an election that are doing this type of not too-tidy business are the ones that have held our Naira in captivity. And as long as they are in charge, it will be difficult for the Naira to gain strength against the dollar.

“The worst part of it is that if the government goes today, pump $20 billion into the economy, 80 per cent of that money will end up in their hands, and they will continue to use it in an unproductive means because they want that dollar to Naira gap to continue to exist.”

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Nigeria’s ₦166tn Debt Nears 40% GDP Limit, Productivity Yet to Rise — Rewane

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Nigeria’s public debt has climbed to ₦166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026, with financial analyst and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, warning that the country’s debt burden is approaching the 40 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) limit.

Rewane raised concerns over the increasing debt burden, stressing that the key issue is not simply the amount Nigeria owes but what the borrowed funds have been used to achieve.

“There is a fiscal responsibility that says we shouldn’t exceed 40% of GDP, ₦166 trillion is the limit,” Rewane said.

ALSO READ: Dangote Refinery Ends Nigeria’s Fuel Import Dependence Era, Boosts GDP, FX Earnings — EIU

“The question is not how much the debt is, it is what have you used the debt to acquire? We haven’t seen any corresponding increase in productivity yet and there is a cost of living and affordability crisis.”

He also warned that Nigeria’s debt per capita was already high and could not continue rising indefinitely.

“Nigeria’s debt per head is very high and cannot increase further,” he added.
The comments come as the latest figures from the Debt Management Office (DMO), as reported by Business A.M, showed that Nigeria’s public debt increased by ₦79.41 trillion in three years, rising from ₦87.38 trillion in June 2023 to ₦166.79 trillion by June 2026.

The latest figure represents a 90.9 per cent increase in the country’s public debt stock since June 2023.

On a year-on-year basis, public debt increased by ₦14.39 trillion, or 9.4 per cent, from ₦152.40 trillion in June 2025. It also rose by ₦7.44 trillion, or 4.7 per cent, from ₦159.35 trillion recorded in March 2026.

According to the report, domestic debt stood at ₦91.59 trillion, representing 54.91 per cent of total public debt, while external debt amounted to ₦75.20 trillion, or 45.09 per cent.

The Federal Government accounted for ₦152.77 trillion, representing about 91.6 per cent of the total public debt, while states and the Federal Capital Territory accounted for the remaining ₦14.01 trillion.

The rising debt stock has also been accompanied by increasing debt-servicing costs.

Federal Government domestic debt service rose to ₦3.14 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, compared with ₦2.61 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025.

Interest payments accounted for most of the increase, rising by 25.4 per cent to ₦2.97 trillion during the period.

Rewane’s comments therefore place renewed focus on the economic returns from government borrowing, particularly whether borrowed funds are translating into higher productivity, stronger revenues and expanded productive capacity.

The concern has also been raised by other Nigerian economists and financial analysts, who have argued that borrowing should be linked to projects capable of generating economic returns and strengthening the government’s capacity to repay its obligations.

 

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Ruto Hails DPRP “Masterpiece” as Dangote Group Accelerates African Expansion

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Kenyan President, William Samoei Ruto has described the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) as “a masterpiece of science, engineering and art”.

He made the declaration following a tour of the world-class facility in Lagos, while reaffirming Kenya’s commitment to partnering with the Dangote Group on the proposed $17 billion East African Oil Refinery and Petrochemical Complex in Lamu.

President Ruto visited the refinery after attending the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), noted that witnessing firsthand the scale, sophistication and operational excellence of the 700,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery had strengthened his confidence in the East African refinery project.

READ ALSO: Dangote to Support Two Million Women with Refinery IPO Share Ownership

“Coming here and seeing it for myself, I can confirm that I have seen a masterpiece of science, engineering, and art. To my brother Aliko, congratulations. I always knew Nigerians to be very brave people and go-getters, but I did not anticipate that it was at this scale,” President Ruto said.

The Kenyan leader disclosed that preparations had been concluded for the ground-breaking ceremony of the East African refinery project in Lamu, which is expected to become a strategic regional asset for East Africa.

According to him, the refinery will drive industrialisation, create jobs, strengthen engineering and technical capacity, enhance energy security and promote regional economic integration.

“This is not a Kenyan refinery; it is going to be a regional refinery. We are positioning our continent as an emerging growth centre, and this project will help accelerate industrialisation, create jobs, enhance engineering capabilities and strengthen Africa’s economic competitiveness,” he stated bureaucratic bottlenecks to ensure efficient project execution.

“The Government of Kenya is 100 percent behind this project. We have secured the required land and are working to ensure that we spend our time building rather than navigating administrative delays,” he said.

The President further commended the leadership and commitment of Dangote Group President and Chief Executive, Aliko Dangote, highlighting his deep understanding of the refinery’s technical and operational processes.

“The detail with which Aliko Dangote understands this plant is remarkable. Unless you understand the details, you are unable to make the right decisions. That commitment to excellence is one of the reasons behind the success of this project,” he added.

Dangote Group’s Chief Strategy Officer, Aliyu Suleiman, disclosed, during the visit that the conglomerate generated approximately $17 billion in revenue during the first half of 2026 and is on course to achieve a record $36 billion in revenue for the full year, representing a 100 per cent increase over the $18 billion recorded in 2025.

“The revenues of the Group have grown significantly over the last five years. From $18 billion last year, we are on track to get to $36 billion this year. Our half-year revenue is already about $17 billion,” Suleiman said.

He attributed the strong performance to sustained investments across key sectors, including cement, sugar, fertiliser, petroleum refining, upstream oil and gas, and other strategic businesses.

Suleiman noted that Dangote Group’s growth ambitions are anchored on its Vision 2030 Strategy, aimed at expanding the company’s industrial footprint across Africa and creating globally competitive businesses on the continent.

“Between 2020 and 2025, the Group executed a capital expenditure programme of approximately $50 billion. Over the next five years, we intend to invest twice that amount as we accelerate our expansion across Africa,” he stated.

Suleiman emphasised that the proposed 700,000 barrels-per-day greenfield refinery and petrochemical complex in Lamu, estimated at approximately $17 billion, will be a cornerstone of the Group’s ambition to build a $100 billion African industrial enterprise.

“The East African refinery in Kenya is going to be a key component of our journey and our dream to get to $100 billion. It is going to be a major contributor,” he said.

He added that Dangote Group’s expansion plans span a broad range of sectors, including port infrastructure, gas infrastructure, LNG, upstream oil and gas, power generation, mining and other strategic industrial investments across Africa.

As part of preparations for the project, Dangote Group has signed a contract worth more than $450 million with Engineers India Limited (EIL) to provide project management consultancy and engineering, procurement and construction management services for the Lamu refinery and petrochemical complex.

The partnership builds on EIL’s experience and involvement in the successful development of the DPRP in Lagos. Once completed, the East African refinery is expected to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, strengthening regional energy security and supporting industrial development across East Africa.

The Dangote Group is also progressing plans to expand the processing capacity of the DPRP in Nigeria from 700,000 barrels per day to approximately 1.4 million barrels per day through the addition of a new 750,000 barrels-per-day crude distillation unit.

The expansion is expected to further solidify Nigeria’s position as a leading exporter of refined petroleum products and enhance Africa’s energy self-sufficiency.

President Ruto’s visit and Dangote Group’s ambitious growth plans highlight the increasing impact of African-led investments in driving the continent’s industrial renaissance.

With record revenue growth, a robust investment pipeline, expansion of refining capacity in Nigeria and the planned development of the East African Oil Refinery in Kenya, Dangote Group is reinforcing its role as a key driver of Africa’s economic transformation, energy security, industrial development and regional integration.
Photo Caption: From Left – Kenya President, Dr. William Samoel Ruto; Group Vice President, Oil & Gas and Fertiliser, Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin; and President/CE, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote during the Kenya President’s Visit to Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Petrochemicals and Fertiliser Plant Lekki, Lagos on Friday 25th September 2026.

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Sanwo-Olu Woos Global Investors, Pitches Lagos as Africa’s Business Gateway

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Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has called for stronger international investment partnerships as he pitched Lagos as a strategic gateway for global investment into Africa.

Sanwo-Olu made the call while speaking at the Global Africa Business Initiative’s Unstoppable Africa 2026 in New York, where global business leaders, investors, policymakers and heads of government gathered to discuss ways of strengthening African businesses and expanding the continent’s economies.

The 2026 edition of the event was held on September 20 and 21 at the New York Marriott Marquis, on the sidelines of the opening of the 81st United Nations General Assembly.

SEE ALSO: ‘A Nation Cannot Escape the Bill’ — Atiku Questions Tinubu’s Third UNGA Absence

The governor highlighted Lagos’ large population, expanding market, infrastructure needs, entrepreneurial ecosystem and strategic position as key factors that create opportunities for investors seeking to participate in Africa’s economic growth.

Sanwo-Olu stressed that Lagos’ growing global relevance should translate into tangible benefits for residents through investments in infrastructure, transportation, healthcare, enterprise development and other sectors.

He said the state remained open to international capital, strategic partnerships and private-sector participation, with the goal of building partnerships capable of delivering measurable economic value across Lagos.

According to the governor, Lagos is pursuing a development agenda that combines long-term economic growth with efforts to address the everyday needs of its residents while creating an environment where businesses can establish, expand and compete.

A key feature of the governor’s presentation was the promotion of Invest Lagos, the flagship investment promotion initiative of the Lagos State Ministry of Commerce, Cooperatives, Trade and Investment.

The engagement followed the successful Invest Lagos 3.0 summit held in Lagos in June under the theme, “Lagos: The Business Gateway to Africa.”

The summit brought together global investors, policymakers, development institutions and business leaders to explore opportunities in infrastructure, manufacturing, technology, trade, finance and the creative economy.

Sanwo-Olu’s participation at Unstoppable Africa 2026 further provided an international platform for Lagos to showcase its investment opportunities and seek partnerships aimed at attracting global capital to the state.

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