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Global Shares, Bunds edge higher, plenty of risk ahead

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LONDON – World shares made guarded gains on Monday, encouraged that Wall Street was able to weather a seemingly disappointing U.S. jobs report last week but with more than enough event risk ahead to keep investors cautious.

European stocks got off to steady start, holding their ground along with safe-haven German Bunds as moves remained limited ahead of the week’s bigger events.

The new head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, delivers her first testimony to the House of Representatives on Tuesday and the Senate on Thursday. Markets will be hoping for reassurance that policy will stay loose for a long time to come.

The dollar had begun to retreat as European trading gathered pace, softened by questions over Yellen’s stance and what if any impact a second successive month of uncertain jobs data could have on the Fed’s stimulus withdrawal.

It was last trading at $1.3644 to the euro and was buying 102.20 yen, a turnaround from Asian trading when it had bobbed as high as 102.41.

“I think the market is bit on the dovish side of where it should be,” Saxo Capital Markets chairman Nick Beecroft said.

“Given the perception of Janet Yellen being a dove, if she doesn’t come over extra-dovish it could be a bit of a disappointment.”

Both stocks and the dollar initially retreated when Friday’s U.S. payrolls report showed a rise of only 113,000 in January, falling well short of forecasts. The damage was limited by a very strong household survey in which a sharp jump in the number of people employed nudged the jobless rate down to 6.6 percent.

That mixed bag of data left Treasuries little changed with yields on 10-year notes a shade lower at 2.67 percent in early Monday trade.

In commodities, oil prices lost momentum having initially extended their recent gains as persistently cold weather across the United States continued to eat into heating fuel stocks.

U.S. crude made an early six-week peak at $100.46 a barrel but could not force its way past the December high at $100.75. Brent crude oil futures gave up 21 cents of last week’s gains to stand at $109.35 a barrel.

Spot gold was also firm at $1,271.70 an ounce, but faces stiff resistance from $1,273 to $1,278.

YELLEN FROM THE HILL

Japan’s Nikkei led the way in Asian trading, with a rise of 1.3 percent to 14,668, and away from last week’s trough at 13,995. Shanghai also added 1.7 percent after its recent sell-off.

But emerging market tensions were back in focus after credit rating downgrades late on Friday for Turkey and Ukraine, two of the countries most under fire in markets.

Turkey’s lira and its main stock market suffered their biggest falls in a week although losses in Ukrainian assets were limited by its imposition from Friday of capital controls.

Expectations that cuts in U.S. monetary stimulus, which has buoyed risk assets for several years, are one of the main reasons for the pressure being seen in emerging markets.

Fed chair Yellen will be able to offer her own reading of the jobs report before lawmakers this week, which could give markets a fresh steer on the pace of stimulus withdrawal.

Analysts generally assume she will stick to the script of recent policy meetings, reiterating that a gradual decline in asset buying is likely as long as the economy continues to improve as assumed.

“We expect her to state that tapering is not on a pre-set course and the committee will adjust course as needed, particularly if the expected firming in growth and gains in payrolls do not persist,” Barclays analysts said in a note.

Yellen is also likely to repeat the standard forward guidance that the funds rate will remain near zero until the unemployment rate falls well below 6.5 percent, as long as inflation is subdued.

BEARS IN THE CHINA SHOP

Major U.S. data includes retail sales on Thursday, for which a flat result is forecast due partly to bad weather and a rise in gasoline prices.

China releases trade numbers on Wednesday and consumer prices on Friday. Analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia predict exports will have shrunk in January but mainly because of significant base effects as January last year saw an outsized 25 percent increase.

Trade flows can be very volatile in January and February because of the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

The euro zone releases its first estimate of economic growth on Friday and forecasts favor a slim 0.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter, which would keep pressure on for more action from the European Central Bank.

ECB President Mario Draghi gives a speech on “Progress Through Crisis?” on Wednesday and markets will be sensitive to any hint of further accommodation to come.

The Bank of England issues its February Inflation Report on Wednesday, which is likely show price pressures are muted and so support the outlook for low rates.

BoE chief Mark Carney is expected to sketch out a new format for forward guidance after a quicker-than-expected fall in unemployment undermined an original plan, outlined in August.

– REUTERS

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Gas Infrastructure Fund Sets Terms for Indigenous Access to Funding

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Gas development, a major carbon reduction move - Seplat Energy

Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF) has said that indigenous companies seeking to partner with it and access its equity must show secured gas supply and a confirmed buyer, because no gas project is bankable without both.

The Fund was established under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), and designed as the “master key” for unlocking gas processing, infrastructure and bankability.

Deputy Director at MDGIF in the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Engr Elvis Duruji made this known at the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos. He spoke at a session on: “Scaling Energy Options: Unlocking Gas and Renewables through Processing and Infrastructure.”

READ ALSO: UN Engages NCDMB to Deepen Female Access to $40m Oil, Gas Fund

Expatiating further, Duruji said the two conditions decide whether the fund takes an equity stake in a project, since they determine its returns and viability, insisting that the security of the gas feedstock is very important. He further noted that project operators must locate their sites at a gas processing plant or close to a CNG mother station.

The Fund, he added, has used N671 billion to catalyse N1.6 trillion from private Nigerians.

“The Fund has partnered on 31 projects covering 205 infrastructure assets at different stages of execution. Of these, 127 are at different levels of project management, and 10 have been commissioned.

Duruji cited Topline Limited’s mini-LNG plant in Delta State as a success story. “For three years, a Nigerian company, Topline, was looking for a credit facility from InfraCredit, and no one was able to loan them money because they are Nigerian,” he said. “They came to the fund and we partnered with them.”

He said Topline is now the first indigenous mini-LNG operator in Nigeria, with commissioning due before December.

He also cited a programme to convert 20 university campuses to CNG through daughter stations.

“Three CNG stations are operational and 14 more are to be commissioned before December. Duruji added that the fund is working with fuel-station partners, including Ibile Oil and Gas Corporation, which is delivering 15 CNG stations across Lagos.

“These are our success stories,” he said.

He said, for CNG projects, proximity to the gas processing plant “is very important. You must have security of gas supply. We also ensure that you have a gas supply agreement with producers. What is the volume and price that the producer is willing to give to our would-be equity partner? This always affects their credit returns and internal rate of return. This is what will determine the project viability, and this is key,” he said.

Duruji also noted that offtake is equally critical adding that. “We need to know the offtakers and the regasification facility. The same thing for CNG, you need to get a compressor,” he said.

According to him, the MDGIF intervenes in gas projects where commercial lenders will not, because “most Nigerian companies are in trading and operating marginally at the downstream level because the sector is highly capital intensive,” adding that no Nigerian bank would give single-digit loans for exploration and production.

“Nigerian Banks lends at as much as 30 per cent interest, whereas, foreign firms coming into Nigeria to explore, by contrast, have access to cheap loans in single digits from their home country financial institutions,” he said.

The MDGIF, he further explained, intervenes “by pricing the risk, coming up with mitigation and catalytic equity, which we now use to bring that barrier to a level to allow Nigerians who are interested to come into the midstream to partner through the equity finance that we will provide without interest.”

“We bring in the catalytic equity, which is about 49 percent, because we want to allow you to be the operator. We will stay with the private investor and walk them through all that,” he added.

He said MDGIF brings “minority equity, due diligence and risk governance” and uses these as catalytic capital “to make the projects bankable, to make them balanced capital structure that will attract private confidence.”

He identified processing plants, transport, storage and last-mile distribution as the main gaps. Non-associated gas, he said, is “very expertise and capital intensive,” and pipeline networks are needed to move gas from the reserve to the last mile.

“The more gas infrastructure we roll out, the more we are helping the energy system where renewables cannot,” he said.

Duruji identified three mandates of the MDGIF: to increase domestic gas consumption, to aggregate flared gas and bring it into the domestic market, and to mobilise private investors who lack the funds to play in the midstream.

“The MDGIF has three mandates: increase domestic gas consumption, aggregate flared gas and bring it into the domestic market, that is key,” he said. “The other mandate is to mobilise private investors that do not have the funds to be able to play in the midstream, bring their funds.”

He added: “We also have the mandate to reduce gas flare in Nigeria exploration and production sites.”

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UN Engages NCDMB to Deepen Female Access to $40m Oil, Gas Fund

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NCDMB Emerges Best MDA In Ease Of Doing Business Ranking

Easing access to the dedicated $40 million Women in Oil and Gas Fund is the focus of ongoing strategic conversation between the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women), and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB).

Biztellers reports that the two bodies are keen to collaborate to ensure that more women-owned businesses and professionals benefit from industry’s opportunities and consequently play a stronger role across the sector’s value chain.

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Recall that in April 2021, the NCDMB established a $20 million fund dedicated to supporting women-owned and women-led businesses in the oil and gas sector, which the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) complemented by matching the fund with an additional $20 million.

However, despite this significant commitment and favorable loan terms, the uptake of the scheme has remained below expectations to date.

The discussions were advanced last week when the UN Women’s Country Representative to Nigeria and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Ms. Beatrice Eyong, led a delegation to the NCDMB’s Abuja liaison office.

The team was received by the Board’s General Manager of Corporate Communications, Dr. Obinna Ezeobi, on behalf of the Executive Secretary, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe.

The meeting explored proposed capacity-building initiatives for NCDMB personnel, aimed at mainstreaming gender perspectives into the Board’s project planning, budgeting, and execution frameworks.

Other key areas of discussion included vendor development schemes to better position women-led oil and gas businesses for industry opportunities, strategies to raise awareness of available financing options, and potential affirmative procurement measures designed to expand the participation of women-owned companies across the oil and gas value chain.

The UN official commended NCDMB for its ongoing gender inclusion efforts, noting that the Board is already implementing several measures consistent with its mandate.

She proposed conducting a study to identify the reasons women face challenges in accessing the financing facility, including potential barriers related to documentation, business registration, tax compliance, and limited awareness.

She further highlighted key initiatives currently being undertaken by the UN Office, such as programmes on women’s economic empowerment, leadership development, and the elimination of gender-based violence, among others.

Ezeobi welcomed the proposals and affirmed the Board’s readiness to partner with UN Women. He highlighted several innovative initiatives already implemented by the Board to create opportunities for women to participate, grow, and lead in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

These include the establishment of a dedicated funding scheme with NEXIM Bank that enables women-owned or women-led firms to access financing at a highly competitive 5 per cent interest rate, as well as the creation of a Diversity Sectoral Working Group within the Nigerian Content Consultative Forum (NCCF), designed to mainstream women’s issues into local content policy and decision-making processes.

The Board also supports associations of women who work across the Energy Industry value chain, where they network, build confidence and links to progress their careers or businesses.

Ezeobi noted that NCDMB has also invested significantly in capacity-building programs for women entrepreneurs and business leaders, covering critical areas such as business sustainability, corporate governance, and strategic management.

The Board has further supported women’s participation in technical occupations while encouraging young girls to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).

He acknowledged that women remain underrepresented in the oil and gas industry, citing limited access to technical education, finance, and commercial opportunities, as well as entrenched perceptions of the sector as predominantly male.

Ezeobi reiterated NCDMB’s willingness to collaborate with UN Women to address these challenges and recommended strategies to accelerate the Board’s support for UN Women’s programmes, thereby advancing gender inclusion across the industry.

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Afreximbank Charts Côte d’Ivoire’s Rise as a Regional Growth Leader in WA

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The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has released its Côte d’Ivoire Country Brief, providing an in-depth examination of the West African nation’s macroeconomic outlook, regional and international trade dynamics, financial sector development and debt sustainability profile.

The brief highlights Côte d’Ivoire as one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Home to 33.5 million people and with a nominal GDP forecast at USD116.9 billion in 2027, the country has sustained average real GDP growth of around 6.5% per year between 2021 and 2024, accelerating to an estimated 6.6% in 2025. Growth is forecast to moderate to 5.8% in 2026 before rebounding to 6.2% in 2027, supported by rising crude production, continued infrastructure investment and resilient domestic demand.

The brief also points to a notably improved near-term macroeconomic environment. Inflation fell sharply to just 0.1% in 2025, supported by easing commodity price pressures and government measures to stabilise fuel and food prices, with the CFA franc’s euro peg providing a durable exchange rate anchor. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3% of GDP in 2025, meeting the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) ceiling, backed by stronger revenue collection and ongoing reforms to tax administration and VAT digitalisation.

On trade, this edition charts a significant expansion. Total trade surged from USD26 billion in 2018 to USD57 billion in 2025, anchored by Côte d’Ivoire’s status as the world’s largest cocoa producer, commanding around 40% of global supply, alongside growing exports of cashew nuts, rubber, gold and hydrocarbons.

READ ALSO: Oando Production Hits 42,985 boepd as Revenue Grows 9% in 9M 2026

The February 2026 Calao South gas condensate discovery and rising output from the Baleine field signaled a broadening export base over the medium term. Strategically positioned on the Gulf of Guinea, with the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro acting as principal gateways into Francophone West Africa, Côte d’Ivoire is deeply embedded in regional trade networks, with African markets accounting for around 22% of its goods trade in 2025.

The brief further notes Côte d’Ivoire’s financial sector strength. The country holds the largest banking sector in UEMOA, accounting for more than a third of regional banking assets. Regulatory reforms, including the adoption of Basel II and Basel III standards, have strengthened supervision and resilience, while the launch of the Central Bank of West African States’ (BCEAO) interoperable instant payment platform in September 2025 is broadening access to digital financial services across the economy.

As this edition notes, Côte d’Ivoire “has moved from a period of rapid debt accumulation and elevated debt service pressure towards a more stable debt profile, supported by fiscal consolidation, active debt management and continued multilateral engagement.” This is a trajectory that positions the country to fully capitalise on the ambitious targets of its 2026-2030 National Development Plan.

Afreximbank’s Group Chief Economist & Managing Director Research commented: “Côte d’Ivoire is consolidating its position as a leading West African growth and trade hub. Its expanding energy sector, world-class agricultural base, regional port infrastructure and increasingly sophisticated financial system offer a strong foundation to attract investment, scale value addition and deepen trade links across Africa.”

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