Business
IMF Names Nigeria Among Countries Likely to Benefit from Rising Crude Oil Prices
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has opined that there would be significant recovery in Nigeria’s Balance of Payment (BoP) following the ongoing surge in crude oil prices.
This stance was revealed in an interview transcript with Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, Ms. Julie Kozack released at the weekend, in which she stated that oil exporters may witness improvement in balance of payments because of higher oil prices.
She said: “For countries that are energy importers, they may face again if the conflict is prolonged, they may face pressures on their balance of payments. For countries that are oil exporters, their balance of payments may improve because of higher prices. So, we may see a differential effect there. Changes to global financial conditions are likely to affect all countries”.
Nigeria earns over 90 per cent of its forex from crude oil exports, and with Brent Crude trading above $112, Nigeria’s earnings through crude oil export is bound to rise. Murban crude, also hit $145 and sped past it, reflecting the continued freeze of most tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the Middle East crisis.
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Kozack said the oil prices rally has impacted equity markets, and led to a surge in bond spreads.
“We have engaged with finance ministers and Central Bank governors in many countries and regions. We’ve also engaged with regional institutions to discuss and share perspectives on the implications of the conflict and again, how the Fund can best provide support,” she said.
Continuing, Kozack said that countries are most interested in what IMF assessment on the global economy, regional economies, and their individual countries.
“Our Managing Director has said recently that in an uncertain world, we do see more countries often turning to the Fund for support. We stand ready to provide that support as needed. Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing. But of course, as I said, as the situation evolves, as countries reassess their financing needs and their policy options, we stand ready to support them using all of the tools that are available to us,” she said.
According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data, Nigeria’s external sector faced significant headwinds in 2025, as the BoP surplus plummeted by 38.1 per cent to $4.23 billion, down from the $6.83 billion recorded in 2024.
Provisional data from the CBN showed a complex economic landscape where a sharp decline in crude oil earnings and a massive retreat in foreign portfolio investments outweighed the gains made in gas exports and the emergence of the Dangote Refinery as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.
The Current Account, which represents the net of Nigeria’s trade in goods and services, remained in surplus but saw a significant contraction. The surplus fell by 26.2 per cent to $14.04 billion in 2025, compared to $19.03 billion in the previous year.
The decline was led by a 14.4 per cent drop in crude oil exports, which fell to $31.54 billion from $36.85 billion in 2024. This shortfall in oil revenue occurred despite a 21.4 per cent surge in gas exports, which climbed to $10.51 billion.
Furthermore, the Goods Account, a subset of the current account, recorded a higher surplus of $14.51 billion. This was bolstered by the Dangote Refinery, which contributed $6.13 billion in refined petroleum exports and helped slash fuel imports by 28.9 per cent, from $14.06 billion to $10.00 billion.
Also Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows saw a robust increase of 149.1 per cent, rising to $4.01 billion from $1.61 billion in 2024, indicating long-term investors showed renewed confidence in the Nigerian economy, particularly in equity and reinvested earnings.
The pressure on the BoP was further compounded by rising out-payments in the services and primary income accounts. The deficit in the services account grew to $14.58 billion, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, and insurance.
More strikingly, net out-payments in the primary income account surged by 60.9 per cent to $9.09 billion. The CBN attributed this to a spike in dividends and interest payments to non-resident investors, particularly those with portfolio and direct investments in the country.
Despite the narrowing BoP surplus, Nigeria’s external reserves recorded a healthy accretion of 13.8 per cent, ending 2025 at $45.75 billion. This growth in reserves provides a critical buffer for the economy as it navigates the structural shifts in its trade and investment balances.
Business
Guinness Nigeria CEO Shares Sustainable Growth Strategy
Guinness Nigeria Plc is focused on sustaining growth through wider product availability, commercial expansion and disciplined pricing.
Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Guinness Nigeria, Girish Sharma made the disclosure in an interview with CNBC Africa, in which he outlined the priorities expected to shape the company’s performance in the coming quarters.
According to Sharma, the company would keep focusing on making its products more accessible to consumers while strengthening its presence across markets and distribution channels.
“The strategy has always been growing by being available at more places, having our beer, having our products cold in a lot of places and ensuring that we are playing at the right price points,” he said.
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Sharma explained that the company’s approach was centred on expanding its reach rather than relying on price increases to drive growth.
He said Guinness Nigeria had increased the number of locations and cities in which its products were available, alongside growth in its distributor network.
He maintained that the company’s commercial expansion is part of a longer-term plan that will continue over the next three to five years.
“In terms of number of touch points where we’re available to the Guinness Nigeria products, number of cities where we’re available today, number of distributors that we have that distribute our products today, on every single count we have grown multi-fold,” Sharma said.
He described the expansion as a significant undertaking for the business, noting that the effort began with his first 100-day plan and remains a key part of the company’s direction.
Sharma also pointed to operational discipline and improvements made over the past year as important foundations for the business. He said earlier decisions to address the balance sheet, adjust pricing and make fundamental corrections were now supporting the company’s growth trajectory.
He added that teams across operations and procurement were working to keep price increases to a minimum while increasing output, while a more stable currency environment had also been helpful.
Looking ahead, Sharma said the company would focus on maintaining consistency rather than promising a particular growth rate for the next quarter.
“I’m not here to stand and say that we’re going to do better than the third quarter, but what I see is we will be consistent in terms of delivering healthy results,” he said. “Consistency is the word.”
He also highlighted the importance of the final quarter of the year to the beverage industry, citing increased consumer activity around the festive season. Guinness Nigeria, he said, had strategic partnerships planned across the period, with some extending into the first quarter of the following year.
Sharma said the company’s broader ambition was to build a stronger business capable of funding its growth, rewarding shareholders and sustaining performance over time.
“The business is sturdy, business is strong, business is good, and I’m confident that we will continue to grow sustainably,” he said.
His comments underline Guinness Nigeria’s focus on extending its market reach, strengthening execution and building consistency as it pursues its longer-term growth ambitions.
Business
NLNG: Nigeria’s Oil Ambitions Require Investor Guarantees
Nigeria must be surefooted to attract the right investment to harness her full potential in the oil and gas industry.
At the 32nd Nigerian Economic Summit (NES) during a panel session titled, “Unlocking Nigeria’s Oil Potential: The Push for More Oil”, in Abuja, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of NLNG, Adeleye Falade, decried the lack of certainties in the investment environment in Nigeria’s oil industry.
He traced Nigeria’s inability to attract sufficient financing for major oil and gas projects to uncertainties over investment terms, project execution and guaranteed markets for output.
According to Falade, investors and lenders must be confident that contractual agreements will be honoured, projects will deliver as planned and buyers will be available to purchase production before committing billions of dollars to capital-intensive energy developments.
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He cited the financing of NLNG’s Train 7 expansion as evidence that investment certainty, a proven delivery record and credible commercial agreements could unlock substantial funding, even under challenging global economic conditions.
Falade explained that projects requiring huge upfront capital and 20 to 30 years to recover investments depend on confidence that the terms underpinning them will remain stable throughout their lifespan.
According to him, lenders assess not just the quality of an oil or gas resource but also the durability of the investment framework, the predictability of future earnings and the capacity of project sponsors to meet their obligations.
Falade pointed to the $3 billion in external financing secured from 31 local and international financial institutions for Train 7 in 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, as proof of the importance of a credible investment proposition.
The project is being financed through a combination of internally generated cash flows and external funding, underpinned by NLNG’s record of developing six operating trains and repaying the loans used to finance their construction.
He said that track record gave lenders tangible evidence of the company’s capacity to execute complex projects and honour financial commitments, reducing the uncertainty that often discourages investment in capital-intensive developments.
He noted that each successful expansion strengthened NLNG’s credibility and positioned it to secure subsequent financing on more competitive terms.
He identified three fundamental questions that lenders seek answers to before financing major energy projects: “Who buys the product? Who carries the risk? Who stands behind the project?”
For NLNG, he said, long-term sales and purchase agreements, some spanning 20 years, provide the commercial foundation required to secure funding before a final investment decision is taken.
Business
OTL Africa Urges ECOWAS to Adopt Regional Standardisation
A call has gone to West African countries to adopt uniform fuel specifications, strengthen testing capacity, address infrastructure gaps and improve enforcement systems to facilitate more effective regional petroleum trade.
This formed the bulk of the submission of petroleum regulators at a panel session during the 20th OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week that ended in Lagos.
It is the considered opinion of the regulators that inconsistencies in standards across the region remain a huge disservice to fair competition. Therefore, they expressed a common view that putting in place an acceptable standard will ensure a harmonised fuel quality, improve infrastructure and stronger regulatory coordination which will facilitate cross-border trade and reduce market barriers across the region.
Speaking at the session themed: “Regulatory Convergence in African Oil and Gas Markets,” the Authority Chief Executive (ACE), Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Rabiu Umar, argued that differences in fuel specifications across countries made it difficult to compare products and ensure fair competition.
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For instance, he explained that the disparity between diesel specifications of 50 parts per million (ppm) and 1,500 ppm, presents a complication in efforts to harmonise standards across the region.
To this end, the ACE said the sub regional countries needed common product specifications and coordinated production rules to facilitate trade and promote competition.
Umar also advocated the establishment of a West African reference price for petroleum products, saying regional markets needed to strengthen trade among African producers.
On his part, the Chief Executive Officer of Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority (NPA), Godwin Tameklo, said that inadequate infrastructure was a major constraint to regional petroleum trade.
According to him, countries needed to address infrastructure gaps, regulatory differences and market constraints to improve the cross-border movement of petroleum products.
For instance, he disclosed that Ghana’s port and storage facilities could not always accommodate volumes delivered by larger vessels, forcing operators to consider smaller shipments or alternative arrangements.
Tameklo also stressed the need for clear implementation timelines to ensure that regional harmonisation initiatives translated into practical results.
In a similar vein, the Director of Water, Petroleum and Electricity at The Gambia’s Public Utilities Regulatory Authority (PURA), Musa Njie, highlighted the importance of laboratory facilities in testing petroleum product quality.
Njie identified the absence of a laboratory for petroleum product testing as one of the challenges facing The Gambia, and stressed the need to strengthen national quality assurance systems.
He said that harmonisation efforts should protect public health and the environment while improving market efficiency.
Njie also called for stronger coordination between regional frameworks and national regulatory institutions to ensure effective implementation of agreed standards.





