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IMF Names Nigeria Among Countries Likely to Benefit from Rising Crude Oil Prices

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has opined that there would be significant recovery in Nigeria’s Balance of Payment (BoP) following the ongoing surge in crude oil prices.

This stance was revealed in an interview transcript with Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, Ms. Julie Kozack released at the weekend, in which she stated that oil exporters may witness improvement in balance of payments because of higher oil prices.

She said: “For countries that are energy importers, they may face again if the conflict is prolonged, they may face pressures on their balance of payments. For countries that are oil exporters, their balance of payments may improve because of higher prices. So, we may see a differential effect there. Changes to global financial conditions are likely to affect all countries”.

Nigeria earns over 90 per cent of its forex from crude oil exports, and with Brent Crude trading above $112, Nigeria’s earnings through crude oil export is bound to rise. Murban crude, also hit $145 and sped past it, reflecting the continued freeze of most tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the Middle East crisis.

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Kozack said the oil prices rally has impacted equity markets, and led to a surge in bond spreads.

“We have engaged with finance ministers and Central Bank governors in many countries and regions. We’ve also engaged with regional institutions to discuss and share perspectives on the implications of the conflict and again, how the Fund can best provide support,” she said.

Continuing, Kozack said that countries are most interested in what IMF assessment on the global economy, regional economies, and their individual countries.

“Our Managing Director has said recently that in an uncertain world, we do see more countries often turning to the Fund for support. We stand ready to provide that support as needed. Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing. But of course, as I said, as the situation evolves, as countries reassess their financing needs and their policy options, we stand ready to support them using all of the tools that are available to us,” she said.

According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data, Nigeria’s external sector faced significant headwinds in 2025, as the BoP surplus plummeted by 38.1 per cent to $4.23 billion, down from the $6.83 billion recorded in 2024.

Provisional data from the CBN showed a complex economic landscape where a sharp decline in crude oil earnings and a massive retreat in foreign portfolio investments outweighed the gains made in gas exports and the emergence of the Dangote Refinery as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.

The Current Account, which represents the net of Nigeria’s trade in goods and services, remained in surplus but saw a significant contraction. The surplus fell by 26.2 per cent to $14.04 billion in 2025, compared to $19.03 billion in the previous year.

The decline was led by a 14.4 per cent drop in crude oil exports, which fell to $31.54 billion from $36.85 billion in 2024. This shortfall in oil revenue occurred despite a 21.4 per cent surge in gas exports, which climbed to $10.51 billion.

Furthermore, the Goods Account, a subset of the current account, recorded a higher surplus of $14.51 billion. This was bolstered by the Dangote Refinery, which contributed $6.13 billion in refined petroleum exports and helped slash fuel imports by 28.9 per cent, from $14.06 billion to $10.00 billion.

Also Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows saw a robust increase of 149.1 per cent, rising to $4.01 billion from $1.61 billion in 2024, indicating long-term investors showed renewed confidence in the Nigerian economy, particularly in equity and reinvested earnings.

The pressure on the BoP was further compounded by rising out-payments in the services and primary income accounts. The deficit in the services account grew to $14.58 billion, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, and insurance.

More strikingly, net out-payments in the primary income account surged by 60.9 per cent to $9.09 billion. The CBN attributed this to a spike in dividends and interest payments to non-resident investors, particularly those with portfolio and direct investments in the country.

Despite the narrowing BoP surplus, Nigeria’s external reserves recorded a healthy accretion of 13.8 per cent, ending 2025 at $45.75 billion. This growth in reserves provides a critical buffer for the economy as it navigates the structural shifts in its trade and investment balances.

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Nigeria’s Capital Market Leads Africa with Transition to T+1 Settlement Cycle

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NGX: Transactions maintain bearish trend with 0.0% loss

The Nigerian capital market on Monday achieved a historic milestone with the successful transition to a T+1 settlement cycle, becoming the first market in Africa to implement the shortened settlement framework designed to enhance efficiency, reduce risk, and improve global competitiveness.

Speaking at the T+1 Settlement Cycle Transition Ceremony in Lagos, the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Dr. Emomotimi Agama, described the development as a defining moment in the market’s evolution. “The era of T+1 has begun. In just six months, Nigeria has successfully progressed from T+2 to T+1 settlement, joining a growing group of markets embracing faster and more efficient settlement cycles. This achievement signals that Nigeria is prepared to undertake the structural reforms required to compete for global capital,” Agama said.

He added that the reform aligns Nigeria’s capital market with global best practices, where shorter settlement cycles are increasingly being adopted to improve post-trade efficiency, reduce counterparty risk, and strengthen investor confidence. He reaffirmed the Commission’s commitment to continued modernisation of market systems and processes.

In his goodwill message, the Group Chairman of NGX Group, Alhaji Umaru Kwairanga, described the transition as a key step in the ongoing transformation of Nigeria’s capital market. He said the development underscores the shared commitment of stakeholders to strengthening market institutions, deepening investor confidence, and enhancing the market’s role in supporting economic growth and capital formation. “Milestones such as this reinforce confidence in our institutions and demonstrate our collective determination to build a more efficient and globally competitive capital market,” he stated.

Also speaking at the event, the Chairman of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc Group Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of NGX Group, Temi Popoola, said the transition represents a critical step in the broader evolution of Nigeria’s capital market. He noted that while the achievement marks a significant milestone, it is part of a longer journey toward building a deeper, more liquid, and more globally competitive market capable of supporting sustained economic growth and capital formation.

“While today is a significant milestone, it is not the destination. It is part of a broader journey toward building a deeper, more liquid, efficient, and globally competitive capital market capable of supporting long-term economic growth and capital formation,” he said.

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of CSCS Plc, Shehu Shantali said the milestone reflects the strength and operational readiness of Nigeria’s post-trade ecosystem. He noted that the new settlement cycle would enhance transaction speed, improve liquidity efficiency, and reduce settlement exposure across the market. “This transition is far more than a reduction in settlement timelines. It represents a strategic upgrade to market infrastructure and reinforces our commitment to building a more efficient, resilient, and globally competitive capital market,” he said.

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The ceremony culminated in a symbolic closing gong ceremony marking the official commencement of the T+1 settlement cycle. The event was attended by CEOs of Exchanges market operators, regulators, stockbrokers, and leaders of trade associations across the capital market ecosystem.

The transition follows six months of coordinated industry-wide preparations involving regulators, exchanges, depositories, custodians, registrars, and other market participants, positioning Nigeria among global markets adopting shorter settlement cycles to improve post-trade efficiency and market resilience

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Again, Aradel Shifts Results Release Forward

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After failing to meet its previously announced May 29, 2026 target, Aradel Holdings Plc has extended the filing and publication deadline for its 2025 audited financial statements and first-quarter 2026 unaudited financial statements.

This was detailed in a notice to the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), shareholders and the investing public, which had it that both reports will now be released on or before June 19, 2026.

The company blamed challenges arising from the consolidation of its recently acquired additional 40 per cent equity interest in ND Western Limited.

Aradel had earlier informed the market on March 2, 2026, that the delay in filing its financial statements was linked to the acquisition and had subsequently indicated that the reports would be released on or before May 29, 2026.

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Explaining the latest postponement, the company said unforeseen complexities emerged during the consolidation process following the integration of the newly acquired stake into the Group’s reporting framework.

According to the notice, “The delay is due to unforeseen complexities encountered in the consolidation process arising from the integration of the newly acquired interest in ND Western Limited into the Group’s reporting framework. Additional time is required to ensure that the consolidated results fairly present the financial position of the enlarged Group in line with applicable accounting standards and regulatory requirements.”

“The Company is working closely with its external auditors to complete the process without compromising the quality, accuracy or integrity of the financial statements. Both the FY 2025 Audited Financial Statements and the Q1 2026 Unaudited Interim Financial Statements will now be released on or before 19 June 2026,” Aradel said.

The extension means the company’s closed period, which commenced on January 1, 2026, will remain in effect until 24 hours after the financial statements are released to the market. During the closed period, insiders and other restricted persons are prohibited from trading in the company’s shares.

The company noted that trading in its securities by affected persons would resume after the expiration of the extended closed period. Aradel further reiterated its commitment to regulatory compliance and transparency in its financial reporting.

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Savannah Energy Posts Strong Four-Month Performance

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Ahead of its Annual General Meeting (AGM) billed for June 1, 2026, Savannah Energy, has provided a trading update on its Nigerian operations and other markets in Africa for the four months to April 30, 2026, reflecting continued operational progress and a strong focus on cash discipline.

It reports that following the completion of the SIPEC Acquisition in March 2025, the production expansion programme underway at its Stubb Creek has delivered an 8% increase in average gross daily production to 3.1 Kbopd for the period, compared to 2.8 Kbopd during the same period in 2025.

Its group average gross daily production for the four-month period stood at 15.7 Kboepd (FY 2025: 18.8 Kboepd) with gas production volumes constrained as a result of the ongoing drilling and operational activity, and customer gas demand.

The update shows that its Revenues increased by 17% year-on-year to US$104.1 million, compared to US$89.1 million in the same period last year. It also shows that its trade receivables balance declined by 22% to US$395.2 million from US$507.2 million at year-end 2025.

It also reported cash balances of US$64.7 million during the four-month period, compared to the 31 December 2025 figure of US$42.8 million, with its net debt standing at US$641.7 million compared to the 31 December 2025 figure of US$658.6 million.

According to the update, Savannah’s cash collections for the four months ended April 30 amounted to US$183.5 million, a 48% increase from the US$89.1 million it received during the same period in 2025.

Savannah also reported that it has entered into a new £32 million unsecured loan facility with NIPCO plc, its largest shareholder. The facility is structured in two tranches: £20 million available immediately and £12 million available from July 1. The loan carries a 4.5% annual interest rate and has a 36-month term.

The facility includes a conversion option that allows Savannah to repay the loan through the issuance of new shares at 8 pence per share. NIPCO cannot require conversion, and Savannah is under no obligation to issue shares. The transaction constitutes a related party transaction under AIM rules.

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The report highlighted the operational progress being made across key African assets, including Uquo and Stubb Creek, as well as continued advancement of its wind, solar and hydropower projects. It reports that drilling and completion activities at the Uquo NE well location have now been concluded, with rig-down operations currently underway ahead of mobilisation to the next well.

It also reports that the flowline installation is in its final stages, with tie-in activities ongoing at the Uquo CPF, while tie-in works at the well pad are expected to commence shortly, with first gas targeted for early July 2026, supporting the higher forecast gas production expected in H2 2026. Site construction activities at the Uquo South exploration well location, it said, are progressing well, with the site expected to be ready by early June 2026, just as conductor piling operations are also ongoing in preparation for the rig move from the Uquo NE location.

In Niger, Savannah reports that its Parc Eolien de la Tarka project has made significant progress to date, with the Minister of Energy confirming that the project is on the Government’s list of priority projects. It expects the timing and sequencing of further development activities in relation to the project to be linked to the timing and outcome of the Company’s ongoing discussions with the Government of Niger regarding the R1234 PSC and the potential recommencement of oil activities.

In Cameroon, negotiations with the Government are at an advanced stage regarding a Joint Development Agreement for the up to 95 MW Bini, a Warak hybrid hydroelectric and solar project. This is expected to replace the Memorandum of Agreement signed in April 2023 and secure the terms under which Savannah will collaborate with the Government of Cameroon to further develop the project.

Andrew Knott, CEO of Savannah Energy, said: “Savannah continues to deliver against the nine core focus areas we set out for the business at the start of 2025. In Nigeria, we have seen a significant improvement in cash collections, with a 48% year-on-year increase in the first four months of the year, alongside a 17% year-on-year increase in Revenues and a 22% reduction in our trade receivables balance since year-end 2025. This reflects our ongoing focus on disciplined cash collections and receivables management, which remains a key priority for the business this year.

“Operationally, we are advancing a number of important projects, including the drilling of two new gas wells at the Uquo field, and the production expansion programme at Stubb Creek which has already delivered an 8% increase in average daily production (compared to the first four months of 2025). In our power division, we continue to progress our greenfield wind, solar and hydro portfolio.

“Alongside this, we continue to pursue further value-accretive acquisitions across both hydrocarbons and power, with several opportunities under active discussion. We are also pleased to have secured a new £32 million loan facility from NIPCO plc (“NIPCO”), our largest shareholder, strengthening our financial flexibility and further underpinning our confidence in delivering continued operational, financial and strategic progress through 2026 and 2027.”

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