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Indian Stock Market Set to Climb in 2014

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MUMBAI — Indian stocks reached record highs in 2013, but most international investors still lost money here as the rupee’s weakness erased returns.

This year could be better, analysts and investors said, depending on whether pro-business politicians get more power in forthcoming national elections.

While the Indian benchmark, S&P BSE Sensex Index rose around 9% in 2013, touching an all-time high in early December, the MSCI India index, a widely followed measure of Indian stocks bought by global investors, lost close to 6% in dollar terms because of the rupee’s collapse.

Among major Asian stock markets, India was one of the worst performers last year in dollar terms, behind MSCI Thailand Index’s 17% loss and MSCI Indonesia’s 25% loss. The U.S.’s benchmark S&P 500 index gained close to 30%.

Indian equities have had “a massive relative underperformance in dollars,” said Tim Love, London-based head of emerging-market equity at asset-management firm GAM, which manages $62 billion. “It is more about the currency than it is about the stock market.”

The Indian rupee plunged more than 20% between May and August to an all-time low against the dollar due to fear that India would struggle when the U.S. rolled back its easy-money policies. It has regained some ground, but was trading 11% weaker on the last day of 2013 than at the end of 2012.

India-dedicated mutual funds available to U.S. investors lost close to 12% on average in 2013, according to research firm Morningstar Inc. The HSBC Global Investment Funds Indian Equity fund, one of the largest India-dedicated offshore funds with $2.5 billion in assets, lost around 15%.

Despite the dollar losses, foreign funds have been buying in recent months. Some are optimistic India will get a pro-business government in federal elections due before the end of May. Foreign institutional investors have poured a net $8.5 billion into Indian equities since the beginning of September. This reversed a net outflow of $3.8 billion between June and August.

Any further stock-market gains, however, will be tempered next year as decision makers focus on elections and put off dealing with the many problems that have cut India’s gross domestic product growth in half in recent quarters. The Indian economy is expected to record decade-low annual growth of less than 5% in the year ending March 31.

Inflation has been rising and the central bank has been raising interest rates to curb it. Higher rates and delays in government approvals of new projects have persuaded many companies to put off expansion.

“The stress in the economy isn’t reflected in the equity” prices yet, said Anoop Bhaskar, head of equity at UTI Asset Management Co., a Mumbai firm that manages around $11.3 billion.

Many investors blame the Congress-led government for stalling the economy and delaying an economic overhaul. While they hope this will change if Narendra Modi—chief minister of the affluent state of Gujarat and the prime ministerial candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party, India’s main opposition group—comes to power in the national elections, it wouldn’t be until late in the year that new, growth-boosting policies could be put in place.

There is also a possibility that India could get a coalition government too divided to pass unpopular changes. Some investors want more political certainty before they invest in India.

“I’d wait and see what they’d actually do,” said Khaled Louhichi, emerging-market analyst at Swiss bank Union Bancaire Privée, which manages $85 billion.

– WALLSTREET JOURNAL

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DPRP’s Appeal Against Fuel Import Licence Ruling Earns Stakeholder Backing

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals’ (DPRP) decision to seek leave to appeal a Federal High Court (FHC) judgment directing the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to continue issuing petroleum product import licences to three major oil marketers is being backed by the Energy Watchdog.

This was detailed in a statement by Martins Tayo, which considers the move as necessary to protect Nigeria’s domestic refining industry and reduce dependence on imported petroleum products.

The judgment, delivered on September 28, 2026, by Justice Inyang E. Ekwo in Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/1363/2026, ordered the NMDPRA to continue issuing import licences to Matrix Energy, AA Rano and AYM Shafa.

The Energy Watchdog argued that the ruling undermined the objectives of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and threatened investments in domestic refining capacity.

“We completely reject and condemn in totality the judgment of the lower court. It is a deeply flawed decision that disregards the clear intent of the Petroleum Industry Act and the national interest in building a robust domestic refining industry,” the statement said.

READ ALSO: NNPC Petrol Discount: Oyedele Explains How Lower Margins Could Boost Profits

The group further cited a reported decline in petrol imports in the first quarter of 2026, alongside increased supplies from local refineries, particularly the Dangote facility, as evidence of the country’s growing domestic refining capacity.

It argued that sustaining import licences despite rising local production could undermine efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products and weaken investor confidence in the sector.

According to the organisation, Dangote Refinery’s decision to seek leave to appeal as an interested party was timely, given the potential implications of the judgment for the future of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry.

“The lower court’s decision amounts to a judicial endorsement of continued importation irrespective of local capacity.

“We condemn it without reservation because it threatens to reverse the hard-won gains of the last few years,” Tayo stated

The Energy Watchdog maintained that the Petroleum Industry Act was designed to encourage investment in midstream and downstream infrastructure, warning that allowing the ruling to stand could send a negative signal to investors who have committed substantial resources to domestic refining projects.

The group urged the Court of Appeal to grant the DPRP leave to appeal and ultimately set aside the FHC’s order, describing the case as significant to Nigeria’s energy security and the development of its refining industry.

“Any judgment that forces the continued importation of fuel products when local refineries can supply the market is a setback for Nigeria.

“We condemn the lower court ruling in the strongest terms and fully support the appeal filed by Dangote Refinery,” the statement concluded, “The Court of Appeal must correct this error and reaffirm that the era of automatic import licences is over.”

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Nigeria Records Biggest Rise in Multidimensional Poverty Among Five Countries – UN

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Nigeria recorded the largest increase in the number of people experiencing multidimensional poverty among five countries that registered increases over their latest measurement periods, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

The finding was contained in the 2026 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index report, released on Monday by the UNDP and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).

According to the report, Nigeria’s multidimensional poverty rate rose from 33 per cent in 2021 to 38.7 per cent in 2024, representing an increase of 5.7 percentage points.

SEE MORE: NNPC’s 30-Day Petrol Discount Is Not a Policy – Sowunmi

The number of Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty increased from 72.2 million in 2021 to 90.1 million in 2024, leaving an additional 17.9 million people affected.

The report noted that the latest increase reversed the progress Nigeria recorded between 2018 and 2021, when the proportion of people living in multidimensional poverty declined.

Nigeria’s Multidimensional Poverty Index value also increased from 0.175 in 2021 to 0.208 in 2024, reflecting a rise in both the incidence and intensity of deprivation.

The intensity of deprivation among multidimensionally poor Nigerians increased from 52.9 per cent to 53.6 per cent over the same period.

Unlike income-based poverty measures, which assess poverty based on how much people earn or spend, the Multidimensional Poverty Index examines overlapping disadvantages experienced in daily life.

The index measures deprivation across three dimensions: health, education and standard of living.

Its 10 indicators include nutrition, child mortality, years of schooling, school attendance, cooking fuel, sanitation, drinking water, electricity, housing and household assets.

A person is classified as multidimensionally poor when their household experiences deprivation in at least one-third of the weighted indicators.

The report showed that Nigeria had made progress in reducing multidimensional poverty before the latest increase.

The country’s index value declined from 0.230 in 2013 to 0.202 in 2018 and 0.175 in 2021 before rising to 0.208 in 2024.

Similarly, the proportion of Nigerians living in multidimensional poverty fell from 42.3 per cent in 2013 to 37.2 per cent in 2018 and 33 per cent in 2021 before increasing to 38.7 per cent in 2024.

The number of affected Nigerians also declined from 76.3 million in 2018 to 72.2 million in 2021 before climbing to 90.1 million in 2024.

The report further highlighted significant differences in multidimensional poverty across Nigeria’s subnational regions, with incidence ranging from 3.7 per cent to 88.3 per cent across the regions covered by the analysis.

It compared Yobe and Sokoto, two of Nigeria’s poorest subnational regions with similar Multidimensional Poverty Index values, to illustrate how the forms of deprivation experienced by communities can differ despite comparable overall poverty levels.

Globally, the report estimated that 1.2 billion people across 108 countries lived in acute multidimensional poverty.

Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 616 million people living in multidimensional poverty, while South Asia followed with 393 million.

The report also found that 83.3 per cent of the world’s multidimensionally poor population, equivalent to approximately 998 million people, lived in rural areas, compared with 200 million in urban areas.

Children below the age of 18 accounted for 617 million, or 51.5 per cent, of the world’s multidimensionally poor population.

In sub-Saharan Africa, 355 million children lived in multidimensional poverty, accounting for 57.7 per cent of the region’s poor population.

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ADF Targets 5 Million Students, 2 Million Vulnerable Women

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In a bold move to deepen retail participation in Nigeria’s capital market, the Aliko Dangote Foundation (ADF) has unveiled a share grant initiative aimed at helping up to five million tertiary students and two million vulnerable women become shareholders in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) through its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of ADF, Zouera Youssoufou, disclosed that the Foundation will match qualifying share subscriptions by eligible beneficiaries. Under the programme, students who subscribe for the minimum 10 shares worth N5,250 will receive an additional 10 shares funded by the Foundation, subject to the approved process and allocation, effectively doubling their holdings to 20 shares.

Speaking during a television interview, Youssoufou said the initiative was designed to turn the refinery’s “People’s IPO” vision into reality by giving traditionally underserved groups a direct stake in one of Africa’s largest industrial assets.

“When Aliko announced the IPO, he described it as the IPO of the people and wanted as many Nigerians as possible to participate,” she said.

READ ALSO: FG Lacks Capacity to Meet Dangote Refinery Crude Demand

According to her, students and vulnerable women were specifically selected because they have historically been underrepresented in the capital market.

The ADF said it is prepared to support up to five million students enrolled in Nigerian tertiary institutions, including universities, polytechnics and colleges of education. Eligible applicants must be at least 18 years old and enrolled in a recognised institution. The Foundation is working with relevant educational authorities to verify beneficiaries.

Youssoufou revealed that about N25 billion has been earmarked for the student component of the scheme, while the broader programme for students and vulnerable women is valued at approximately N40 billion.

She emphasised that the intervention is a grant, not an investment, with all shares ultimately belonging to the beneficiaries.

“The shares end up with the beneficiary. Our goal is to help people who may never have had the opportunity to own shares begin building long-term wealth,” she said.

Beyond students, ADF plans to support up to two million vulnerable women, including widows, women living in extreme poverty, persons with disabilities, and widows of members of the Armed Forces. The Foundation is partnering with state governments, the Ministry of Women Affairs, the Armed Forces and other institutions to identify eligible participants.

According to Youssoufou, the initiative is not only about widening ownership in the refinery but also about promoting financial literacy, encouraging a culture of savings and investment, and helping Nigerians build sustainable wealth through participation in the capital market.

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