Oil
Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions
GENEVA/DUBAI – Iran’s crude oil exports in December leapt to their highest level since European Union sanctions took effect last July, analysts and shipping sources said, as strong Chinese demand and tanker fleet expansion helped the OPEC member dodge sanctions.
Exports rose to around 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, according to two industry sources and shipping and customs data compiled by Reuters on a country-by-country basis and corroborated by other sources and consultants.
The sources said they expected exports to dip in January from the December peak ahead of new U.S. sanctions.
Western sanctions aimed at curbing Iran’s disputed nuclear program halved Iran’s oil exports in 2012 from 2.2 million bpd in late 2011, leading to billions of dollars in lost revenue and a plunge in the Iranian currency.
But continuous robust demand from top buyer China and others such as India and Japan, as well as the purchase of new tankers, allowed the Islamic Republic to unexpectedly boost exports late last year.
The United States and the EU are hoping the economic pressure will force Iran to address international concerns about its nuclear program, which Tehran insists is for peaceful purposes but the West suspects is for making weapons.
Salar Moradi, oil market analyst at oil and gas consultancy FGE, estimated that Iran shipped more than 1.4 million bpd of crude oil in December and forecast that exports would remain between 1.1 million and 1.3 million bpd in the first quarter of 2013.
This represents an increase from a low point of less than 900,000 bpd in September and suggests monthly revenues worth approximately $4.7 billion based on December Brent prices.
“They (Iran) bought a number of tankers from China and can now do more deliveries … It’s taken some pressure off Iran and facilitated tanker traffic and we are seeing higher exports to China,” he told Reuters this week.
The second industry source said the rise in exports to near 1.4 million bpd was a result of traditional buyers finding new ways to secure shipping insurance.
But, like FGE, he estimated that they would fall slightly to around 1.3 million bpd in January.
CHINESE THIRST
Chinese data showed the country bought 593,400 bpd of Iranian crude in December, the second-highest level of daily imports in 2012, a rise that Chinese officials also attributed to an easing of shipping delays.
Previously, Iran’s tanker fleet had struggled to meet delivery schedules to China because EU measures in July barred Europe-based insurers from covering tankers that carry Iranian oil.
“China is saying let’s up the numbers because no one is doing anything about it, and it looks like Obama has made a political decision not to go to war with Iran,” said a senior source with a large independent trading house, referring to U.S. President Barack Obama.
Elena McGovern, oil and gas analyst at Business Monitor International, said: “The implications of preventing Chinese imports from Iran would be too damaging to the (U.S.-China) bilateral relationship. I would be very surprised if Obama were to take China to task on Iranian imports.”
India’s imports of Iranian crude were up 29 percent in December from November at around 275,000 bpd, according to tanker arrival data.
Tracking Iranian shipments has become increasingly difficult as companies have sought to conceal tanker movements from Western governments by turning off satellite signals.
Estimates of the Islamic Republic’s monthly crude exports can vary considerably and are frequently revised.
NEW SANCTIONS LOOMING
A fresh round of U.S. sanctions coming into force next month could cap Iran’s exports in the coming months as some buyers balk at the prospect of falling foul of the measures.
From February 6, U.S. law will prevent Iran from repatriating earnings it gets from its shrinking oil export trade, a powerful sanction that the U.S. officials say will “lock up” a substantial amount of Tehran’s funds.
“We continue to engage in close consultations with our international partners on U.S. sanctions with the objective of maintaining pressure on Iran to comply with its international obligations,” said U.S. State Department spokesman John Finn.
“Month-to-month variability in crude oil purchases is not unusual,” he added.
The International Energy Agency in December forecast a drop in Iranian exports to around 1 million barrels per day in late 2012 and early 2013.
But no matter how many rounds of sanctions are in effect, they are never watertight. Iran found creative ways to market its products and managed to sell more than 1.3 million tonnes of its fuel oil last summer, generating revenues equal to up to a third of its crude exports.
However, the latest data showed fuel oil exports have also taken a dip from the average 648,000 tonnes from July to October.
Exports fell to approximately 230,000 to 330,000 tonnes in December, Salar Moradi said, although he attributed this partly to higher domestic consumption in winter as utilities switch to fuel oil to replace gas used to meet heating requirements in the country.
In a more conservative estimate, data from a firm tracking Iranian fuel oil shipments showed that December exports were around 150,000 tonnes.
Condensate exports also fell by around 300,000 tonnes from November to 600,000 to 700,000 tonnes in December, data from the same firm showed. A Dubai-based analyst said condensate exports might come under further pressure as Iran’s biggest customer in the Middle East has decided to reduce its purchases.
Dubai government-owned Emirates National Oil Co (ENOC) has started importing condensate from Qatar to replace sanctioned Iranian oil and is close to finalizing deals with other producers, the company said on Sunday.
Still, some analysts think Iran will continue to find ways to safeguard against significant drops in its oil revenues.
“What we have seen is that when Iran is pushed to a do-or-die situation, they have looked for creative solutions to get around sanctions,” said McGovern.
Oil
FG Introduces New Incentives To Revitalize Nigeria’s Oil & Gas Industry
In a strategic move to revitalize Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, the Federal Government has unveiled two key fiscal incentives aimed at attracting investment and enhancing energy security.
The announcement was made by Mr. Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy on Wednesday.
The first initiative, the Value Added Tax (VAT) Modification Order 2024, introduces critical exemptions for essential energy products and infrastructure, including Diesel, Feed Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), Electric Vehicles, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure, and Clean Cooking Equipment.
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These exemptions are designed to reduce living costs for Nigerians, promote energy security, and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy alternatives.
The second initiative, the Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Oil & Gas Production, offers new tax relief options for deep offshore exploration projects.
This measure aims to position Nigeria’s deep offshore basin as a premier destination for international oil and gas investments, boosting the country’s appeal to foreign investors.
These reforms are part of a broader set of policy initiatives, known as Policy Directives 40-42, endorsed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The directives reflect the administration’s commitment to fostering sustainable development in the energy sector and enhancing Nigeria’s competitive edge in the global oil and gas market.
Business
Tinubu set to approve ExxonMobil-Seplat oil deal, expands CNG bus initiative
By Yemie Adeoye
NIGERIA’s President Bola Tinubu has announced that the protracted ExxonMobil-Seplat upstream oil divestment will be formally approved by the Minister of petroleum within a matter of days, just as he announced his government’s intention to expand the Compress natural Gas, CNG buses initiative.
The President who stated this during his Independence day nationwide broadcast stated that the move is in line with his administration’s commitment to free enterprise, free entry and free exit in investments which is the hallmark of his administration investment policy.
“Fellow compatriots, our administration is committed to free enterprise, free entry, and free exit in investments while maintaining the sanctity and efficacy of our regulatory processes. This principle guides the divestment transactions in our upstream petroleum sector, where we are committed to changing the fortune positively. As such, the ExxonMobil Seplat divestment will receive ministerial approval in a matter of days, having been concluded by the regulator, NUPRC, in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA. This was done in the same manner as other qualified divestments approved in the sector.”
The President also seized the opportunity to plead with Nigerians to be patient with his administration’s reform policies. “As your President, I assure you that we are committed to finding sustainable solutions to alleviate the suffering of our citizens. Once again, I plead for your patience as the reforms we are implementing show positive signs, and we are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel”.
“Our energy transition programme is on course. We are expanding the adoption of the Presidential Initiative on Compressed Natural Gas for mass transit with private sector players. The Federal Government is ready to assist the thirty-six States and FCT in acquiring CNG buses for cheaper public transportation.
Fellow Nigerians, while we are working to stabilise the economy and secure the country, we also seek to foster national unity and build social harmony and cohesion. Our economy can only thrive when there is peace”. he enthused.
Oil
ExxonMobil To Invest $10bn In Nigeria’s Deep-Water Oil Operations
As part of the administration’s push to improve Ease of Doing Business (EoDB), Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima has expressed support for ExxonMobil’s plan to invest $10 billion in the country’s deep-water oil sector.
Speaking on Wednesday, September 25, 2024, during a meeting with ExxonMobil executives at the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, Shettima called the investment “a clear testament to the administration’s economic reforms and investor-friendly policies.”
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This announcement follows news that international maritime company DP World intends to develop a multibillion-dollar port project in Nigeria.
Stanley Nkwocha, Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Communications, shared the development in a statement on Wednesday. He quoted Shettima as saying: “ExxonMobil’s potential investment aligns with the vision of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration for a more investment-friendly Nigeria.
We are committed to fostering an environment that supports such transformative projects.”Shettima also discussed the administration’s broader efforts to improve the ease of doing business, highlighting the “Renewed Hope Agenda,” which aims to simplify bureaucratic processes, enhance transparency, and offer fiscal incentives to attract global investors.
“Our administration has taken bold steps to unify the exchange rate, remove fuel subsidies, and implement tax reforms. These measures, though challenging in the short term, are intended to create a stable and predictable business environment in the long term,” he added.
On the oil and gas sector, Shettima mentioned that the government is revising the fiscal framework for deep-water operations to attract investment while ensuring fair returns for the Nigerian people.