The peace deal between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz might cost Nigeria dearly in oil revenues.

Nigeria’s oil earnings recorded an estimated windfall of about N5.13 trillion in two months (February to April), as crude prices surged sharply following tensions between the United States–Iran crisis, pushing revenues far above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget estimates.

Recall that the US-Iran war started on February 28 when oil prices were below $70 a barrel.
The hostilities brought the Strait of Hormuz, a major global energy gateway, under blockade for four months.

However, three days ago, a truce was reached among all parties, leading to a ceasefire and the reopening of the channel.

While the war lasted, oil prices rose to an all time peak of over $120 per barrel, further boosting revenue for Nigeria.

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The 2026 budget is anchored on daily oil production of 1.8 million barrels per day, a benchmark oil price of $64.85 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.

Based on these, expected daily oil revenue stands at $116.73m, derived from multiplying 1.8 million barrels by $64.85. When converted at the budget exchange rate, this amounts to about N163.42bn per day, which serves as the baseline for measuring any revenue gains or shortfalls.
Actual earnings in March and April exceeded this benchmark, largely due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices occasioned by the crisis in the Middle East.

Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that Nigeria’s oil production averaged 1.55 million barrels per day, while the average crude price stood at $95.03 per barrel, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria, and the exchange rate averaged N1,370 to the dollar.

Going by these figures, daily revenue amounted to approximately $147.30m, obtained by multiplying 1.55 million barrels by $95.03. Converted at the average exchange rate for the month, this translates to about N201.80bn per day.

Despite production falling short of the budget target by about 250,000 barrels per day, the higher oil price ensured that overall revenue remained significantly above projections.

But should the reopening of Strait of Hormuz drive crude prices towards Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel as against elevated crisis level of $95 per barrel, the country could lose about N13 trillion in the remaining months of 2026.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will return millions of barrels of Middle East crude to the market. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE collectively produce more than 15 million barrels per day, compared with Nigeria’s average output of about 1.55 million barrels per day.

The renewed availability of these supplies could narrow the premium enjoyed by Nigerian crude grades during the disruption and intensify competition in key Asian markets.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and TotalEnergies have renewed their partnership on methane emissions reduction

The renewal involves extending the deployment of the Airborne Ultralight Spectrometer for Environmental Applications (AUSEA) technology across the NNPC Ltd’s upstream operations for another 24 months.

The extension is aimed at strengthening efforts to detect, measure and reduce methane and carbon emissions, while supporting the NNPC Ltd’s gas flaring reduction obligations and broader decarbonisation targets.

The development was disclosed in a statement under the signature of the NNPC Ltd’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Andy Odeh, after the signing of the agreement at the NNPC Towers in Abuja on Wednesday.

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According to the statement, the renewed agreement builds on an earlier deal signed in 2023 for the adoption of the AUSEA technology and is expected to help NNPC Ltd meet its commitments under the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), its participation in the Oil & Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0, and its ambition to achieve near-zero methane emissions by 2030.

The agreement was signed by the NNPC Ltd’s Executive Vice President, Upstream, Udy Ntia, and TotalEnergies Country Chair and Managing Director, Matthieu Bouyer, on behalf of their respective organisations.

Speaking at the signing ceremony, Ntia expressed satisfaction with the outcomes of the first phase of the technology’s deployment and called for its expansion across more assets.

“Today’s signing represents a practical step in NNPC Limited’s journey to build a credible, transparent and action-oriented decarbonisation programme. Through the AUSEA initiative, we are strengthening our ability to detect, quantify and prioritise methane abatement opportunities using advanced measurement technology,” he said.
Ntia also advocated the institutionalisation of progress reporting in line with compliance requirements and highlighted the potential for technology transfer to enhance local capacity in emissions monitoring and management.

On his part, TotalEnergies’ Senior Vice President for Africa, Mike Sangster, commended the long-standing cooperation between the two companies and reiterated TotalEnergies’ commitment to reducing emissions across its operations.

He noted that TotalEnergies was the first oil-producing company in Nigeria to eliminate routine gas flaring across all its assets, adding that the AUSEA technology played a significant role in achieving that milestone.

Sangster said the company remains focused on achieving near-zero methane emissions by 2030 and looks forward to deepening collaboration with NNPC Ltd in pursuit of that goal.

AUSEA is a drone-based emissions monitoring technology jointly developed by TotalEnergies, the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) and the University of Reims.

The technology enables operators to identify previously unaccounted emission sources, improve emissions reporting processes, review operational systems and implement corrective measures. It also provides estimates of flare combustion efficiency, helping operators strengthen environmental performance and regulatory compliance.

NNPC Ltd said the renewed partnership underscores the commitment of both companies to advancing cleaner energy operations, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting Nigeria’s transition towards a more sustainable oil and gas industry.

Nigerians’ wailing over the escalating price of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), popularly known as cooking gas, has caught the attention of the authorities.

Consequently, the Honourable Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, while acknowledging this, reassured of the Federal Government remains commitment to ensuring adequate, reliable and affordable gas supply for households, industries and power generation across Nigeria.

It was gathered that interventions designed to stabilise the domestic LPG market, including the Minister’s directive that all LPG produced in Nigeria be prioritised for local consumption are already underway.

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The authorities claim that this policy intervention has already strengthened domestic supply, reduced dependence on imports and improved market resilience.

The recent price adjustments are driven largely by prevailing market realities such as foreign exchange volatility, rising logistics costs, infrastructure constraints and fluctuations in international LPG prices. These factors should not be misinterpreted as evidence of policy failure.

To address the situation, the Minister has directed the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to intensify engagement with producers, marketers and other stakeholders to sustain supply and enhance market stability.

On their part, Marketers have also committed to increasing import volumes to complement domestic production.

Furthermore, the commencement of LPG deliveries from the new Seplat gas facility in July will significantly boost national supply. The Minister also confirms that no producer is exporting LPG volumes designated for the domestic market, as regulatory measures remain firmly in place to prioritise local needs.

The outlook for LPG supply remains positive, and the Federal Government will continue to pursue measures that enhance availability, affordability and long‑term energy security for Nigerian consumers.