Oil
LCCI seeks reduction of oil benchmark to $40
By Kunle KALEJAYE
Crude Oil
LAGOS-The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry has proposed an oil price benchmark of between $40 -$45 per barrel for the Nigeria’s 2015 budget, saying the $65 per barrel proposed by the government was too optimistic given the current reality of the global oil market.
In his presentation at a press conference on the 2015 Appropriation Bill of the Federal Government and the Current Economic Situation, by Alhaji Remi Bello, President, LCCI said, “The fundamentals of supply and demand in the oil market cannot support this benchmark in the short to medium term; currently it is at less than $50 per barrel.
“Ideally, the benchmark should be significantly below the actual price in other to create room for possible savings and adjustments for volatility shocks.”
Similarly, he said the oil production benchmark of 2.278 million barrels per day prescribed in the Appropriation Bill was also optimistic having regard to the persistent oil theft which had continued unabated in recent years.
“The quantity of oil theft has been estimated at about 400,000 barrels per day. There is also the divestment by the major oil companies and sluggish investment in exploration as a result of policy uncertainties and security concerns.
“In recent years oil output has ranged between 1.8million and 2million barrels per day. The oil production benchmark should therefore be guided by this experience,” he said.
Bello described appropriation for petroleum subsidy as the biggest burden on government treasury in the country with N200 billion proposed as subsidy for PMS (petrol) in 2015 down by 80 per cent from N971 billion in 2014.
While welcoming this development, he noted that the provision of N91 billion for kerosene subsidy in 2015 is difficult to justify.
“Besides the global oil price dropping to below $50 per barrel there is no longer any justification for budgetary provisions for petroleum products subsidy.
“We urge the National Assembly to take this into account in its deliberations on the 2015 Appropriation Bill. Times like these call for utmost prudence and curbing of leakages,” he said.
On appropriation for debt service, he said, “We are deeply concerned over the growing budgetary appropriation for debt service. The amount has grown from N712 billion in 2014 to N943 billion in 2015.
“This is even more disturbing when compared to budgetary appropriation of N93.66 billion for infrastructure and N633billion for capital projects.
“This relativity does not reflect our development priorities and the urgent need to fix the huge deficit in infrastructure. This also raises the concern about the growing domestic debt and the burden it imposes on the economy.
“As a percentage of revenue, the debt service provision is over 25%. As a percentage of infrastructure budget, it is 906%; as a percentage of capital budget it is 148%.
“The trouble is that the bulk of the debts [mainly domestic] were incurred for recurrent spending and the high cost of running government business. They were not incurred for developmental purposes. This makes the servicing even more burdensome on the economy and the citizens.
“We would like to caution once more to avoid relating debt to the re-based GDP in determining the borrowing the nation’s threshold. This is because a large component of the re-based GDP are not revenue generating. If the current trend of debt accumulation continues, it is only a matter of time for debt service provision to completely crowd-out capital expenditure in the budget.
“The concern about the structure of the appropriation is that it is at variance with the urgent imperative of economic diversification and austerity measures. Economic diversification requires a critical mass of investment in infrastructure. The following facts are worthy of note:
“While the total budget decreased by 8.4%, recurrent budget increased by 5.66%; Capital expenditure dropped by 59% [when compared with 2014] to N633.53billion which is less than 15% of the total budget; spite of the pronouncement of the austerity measure, personnel cost increased by 6.3%; Also, in spite of the pronouncement on fiscal prudence and call for sacrifice, the contentious Service Wide Votes increased from N301.84billion to N348.69billion in 2015, an increase of 15% “A sincere commitment to the regime of austerity measures, cost reduction and economic diversification calls for a major review of the expenditure structure by the National Assembly.”
On moves to deepening revenue profile, he said the chamber shared the concern of the government on the need to diversify and deepen its revenue base and that it should intensify efforts in the areas of Remittances by MDAs to federation account; Improving tax administration to enhance compliance; Addressing fiscal leakages and corruption; Reducing the cost of governance in all tiers and levels of government.
He said, “We further submit that emphasis should be on efficiency of tax administration not imposition of new taxes or fees on investors; taxation should reflect the ability to pay in order to meet the desired distributive role; we advise against imposition of excessive fees and charges on businesses in the name of expanding revenue from non-oil sector of the economy.
“A period like this calls for economic stimulus to reinvigorate the economy and expand the frontiers of the non-oil economy. Government and its agencies should therefore refrain from policy choices that could further stifle investments.”
On fiscal sustainability calls for a review of expenditure at all levels of government, he argued that it is easier to cut spending than to raise revenue and implored the National Assembly to take a critical look at some areas in order to curb leakages and ensure cost reduction in government spending.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has revealed the detection of more than 4,800 unauthorized connections on oil pipelines within the country, painting a troubling image of the nation’s primary source of revenue.
Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, communicated this information to the Senate Committee on Appropriations last Friday.
He said, “We have over 4,800 illegal connections on our pipelines. That means in some lines, within 100 kilometres of pipelines, you have as much as 300 insertions.
“Therefore, even when you produce the oil, you cannot deliver them at the required pressure and therefore the volume will also be less.”
As per the NNPC Ltd chief, individuals from various regions enter the Niger Delta, inserting unauthorized connections on pipelines in Nigeria’s oil-producing area.
This recent revelation follows a prior discovery of 295 illegal connections to the pipelines by the firm a year ago, underscoring the escalating issue of crude oil theft in Nigeria.
Two years earlier, Kyari had highlighted the country’s daily loss of 200,000 barrels of oil, amounting to $13 million due to theft and vandalism.
He further stated “We have two sets of losses, one coming from our products and the other coming from crude oil. In terms of crude losses, it is still going on. On the average, we are losing 200,000 barrels of crude every day.”
After the discovery, Nigeria’s security forces pledged to enhance security around the country’s pipelines.
To bolster this, the Federal Government granted a multi-billion naira pipelines surveillance contract to Tantita Security Services, headed by former militant leader Government Ekpemepulo, also known as Tompolo.
Despite facing criticism for this decision, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum, remains convinced that it was the appropriate course of action.
In August, following a tour of oil facilities in the Niger Delta, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri expressed gratitude to Tantita, commissioned by NNPC Ltd, for their ongoing work.
He also hinted at plans for further extensive endeavors in the future.
In 2021, after extensive debate and delays, the Petroleum Industry Bill was finally passed to attract increased foreign investment into the oil sector through amendments to regulations, royalties, and taxes.
Nigeria’s colossal $19 billion Dangote Refinery, after encountering several setbacks, is on the verge of kickstarting fuel production.
This achievement is heralded by the arrival of the first crude shipment, transported by the OTIS tanker carrying 950,000 barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude.
S&P Global, citing industry sources and tanker tracking data on spglobal.com, reported the tanker’s departure on December 6, en route to Lekki, the nearest land port to Dangote’s offshore crude receiving terminal.
Scheduled to reach its destination around 8 PM on December 7, the arrival of this shipment signifies the commencement of crude supplies for the refinery’s operations.
Chartered by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), the Suezmax tanker is an emblem of the initial crude supply to Dangote’s cutting-edge refinery, as disclosed by a West African oil trader familiar with the matter in the S&P report.
Even though the refinery was officially completed in May, the absence of domestic crude feedstock had hindered oil product manufacturing.
To address this, the NNPC, holding a 20% stake in the refinery, struck an agreement to provide 6 million barrels of crude oil as feedstock to the Dangote refinery in December.
This move aims to jumpstart operations and overcome the previous impediments.
Agbami, operated by Chevron, holds a prominent position among Nigeria’s major deepwater developments, producing around 100,000 barrels per day in the central Niger Delta.
Known for its light sweet crude qualities, with a specific gravity of 47.9 API and a low sulfur content of 0.04%, Agbami produces substantial amounts of naphtha and kerosene.
NNPC has chartered additional shipments from different Nigerian offshore fields to the refinery, marking the start of a sequence of planned crude supplies for the month, as mentioned by the oil trader.
Located on the outskirts of Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, the Dangote Refinery encountered repeated delays since its 2013 announcement, despite significant installation progress in 2019.
The refinery, designed to handle multiple crudes simultaneously, targets three Nigerian crude grades—Escravos, Bonny Light, and Forcados. When operating at full capacity, it aims to produce 327,000 barrels per day (b/d) of gasoline, 244,000 b/d of gasoil/diesel, 56,000 b/d of jet fuel/kerosene, and 290,000 metric tons per year of propane/LPG.
Dangote’s operations starting signify Nigeria’s hopes to lessen its reliance on gasoline imports, addressing the deficiencies of its existing refineries undergoing repairs. This shift is poised to reshape Nigeria’s oil industry, potentially leading to gasoline self-sufficiency by the 2040s.
Dangote officials anticipate an initial output of 370,000 barrels per day (b/d), emphasizing jet fuel and diesel production.
Industry analysts, however, project the refinery to reach its full operational capacity by mid-2025, although potential delays remain a looming concern.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has announced intentions to cease importing refined petroleum products by December 2024, anticipating full operational functionality for all national refineries by that time.
Group CEO, NNPC Ltd, Mele Kyari, shared this at a meeting with Speaker Tajudeen Abbas of the House of Representatives, who advocated for the privatisation of Nigeria’s refineries on Thursday.
Projections indicated the national oil firm’s revenue could climb to N4.5 trillion by the conclusion of 2023. Moreover, the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, managed by NNPCL, was slated for completion by December of the current year.
Meanwhile, Oil marketers verified on Thursday that the Port Harcourt refinery is set for operations, potentially starting in January 2024. They emphasized that once operational, this refinery could notably reduce the prices of refined petroleum products.
During the meeting in Abuja, Kyari asserted Nigeria’s intention to cease importing refined petroleum products by 2024, envisioning the country’s emergence as a net exporter of these commodities within the same year.
He outlined the plans for launching operations at the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.
Kyari reiterated that all refineries would operate at full capacity, ultimately paving the way for Nigeria to transition into a net exporter of petroleum products by the conclusion of 2024.
He attributed the inactivity of Nigeria’s refineries over the years to the petroleum subsidy, emphasizing that the removal of this subsidy was drawing significant private-sector investments into the sector.
Kyari said “I can confirm to you that by the end of December this year, we will start the Port Harcourt refinery; early in the first quarter of 2024, we will start the Warri refinery and by the end of 2024, Kaduna refinery will come into operation.
“This is the commitment we are giving today and you can hold us accountable for this. In 2024, many of the initiatives including the rehabilitation of our refineries and also the efforts of small-scale refineries, and the upcoming Dangote refinery, will make Nigeria a net exporter of petroleum products in 2024.
“We will no longer be talking about fuel importation by the end of 2024. I am very optimistic that this will crystallise.
Kyari promised that by the conclusion of 2023, the government’s anticipated revenue from the company would reach N4.5 trillion, emphasizing NNPCL’s adherence to the Petroleum Industry Act and its commitment to delivering value to shareholders.
Recall that in October 2023, it was reported that Nigeria’s monthly spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol, had reached approximately N843 billion due to NNPCL’s cessation of oil swaps.
In July of this year, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that during the post-deregulation period, spanning June 1 to June 28, 2023, the country’s total petrol consumption amounted to 1.36 billion litres, with an average daily consumption of 48.43 million litres.
The average ex-depot price of petrol, sourced solely from NNPCL as the importer, stands at about N580 per litre.
However, both NNPCL and oil marketers declared on Thursday that this substantial oil import expenditure would soon diminish.
They anticipated a drop once the Port Harcourt refinery commences production of refined petroleum products from January 2024, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
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