Energy
Middle East Crisis Opens 10 Million bpd Oil Supply Window for Nigeria, African Countries
As ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have removed an estimated 10 million barrels of oil per day from the global market, Africa, with Nigeria at the forefront, is emerging as the most viable region to help bridge the widening supply gap.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stated this while speaking during the Africa Energy Forum at the ongoing Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas, United States.
Eyesan declared that Africa has become the new focal point of global energy discussions owing to its 125 billion barrels and 625 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, respectively, representing 10 per cent of global reserves.
She noted that the sudden shortfall has shifted global attention to under-explored regions and that the only continent that promises to fill the supply gap is Africa.
“Today, we believe that about 10 million barrels have been taken off the market in a situation where you had a slight oversupply at one time. With 10 million off the market, there’s a huge deficit. The question on everybody’s lips is where this deficit will come from. Or rather, who will fill the gap?
“Let’s x-ray the North Sea. The North Sea was prolific in the past but is declining. North America, same story. And if you layer Asia on that, it’s all decline. However, the only continent that is showing promise today is no other than Africa”, she said.
Citing discoveries and huge oil and gas reserves across the continent, she pointed to Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, and Namibia as examples.
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However, with such abundant reserves in Africa, she said the challenge was how to convert those opportunities into value.
For Nigeria, the NUPRC boss said the answer has been regulatory reform credited to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), enacted in 2021, which she noted was triggering a rebirth in the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector.
“Nigeria has experienced a rebirth since 2021 and the rebirth was instrumental to the change and the opportunities that Nigeria has today.
“The PIA has provided fiscal clarity, regulatory efficiency, contract certainty, and transparency across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments.
“The only way Africa, sitting on huge resources, can bridge that gap successfully is if we have the right regulatory systems to support the business terrain. And Nigeria is not alone in that march,” the NUPRC boss said.
In Nigeria, Eyesan said the results are already evident in investment trends compared to ten years before the PIA, when there was a steep decline in investment in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.
According to her, “About 15 years before the PIA, we were comfortably spending $15 billion annually on the upstream business. This declined to less than $7 billion at some point. Today, we see an upswing.”
She told the global audience in the room that several multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) have been secured or are on the verge of being committed, including the Shell Bonga Project, the Ubeita Non-Associated Gas Project, the HI Gas Project, and the Zabazaba-Etan Field, which was expected to unlock $10.38 billion.
“These are huge projects and a signal that the tide has turned”, Eyesan stated.
In 2024 alone, she said the NUPRC approved 48 Field Development Plans (FDPs), describing that as a major index of progress in the oil and gas industry.
She said the industry has witnessed the enablements from the PIA and that opportunities were just waiting to be unlocked.
She reiterated that the ongoing licensing round, where 50 blocks are offered, and 300 companies are competing, would be concluded by the third quarter of 2026.
Eyesan also announced that another bid round would commence before the end of the 2025 bid round, saying that this was an indication that the opportunities were immense.
To support bidders, Eyesan said NUPRC was enhancing its National Data Repository with large-scale 2D and 3D seismic data acquisition through multi-client partnerships.
She expressed confidence that bidders who finally acquire the assets will work them and bring them to market in the shortest possible time.
To enable this, she explained that the data repository was also being upgraded for advanced analytics, as they seek to embrace artificial intelligence to quicken the process.
Underscoring the importance of capital investment in optimising Africa’s huge untapped oil and gas resources, Eyesan framed the continent’s energy challenge as one of infrastructure and capital rather than resources.
She recalled that Africa took the brunt during the start of the conversation on energy transition due to a lack of investment and infrastructure.
She urged investors to come and invest in the African oil and gas industry, assuring them of a quick return on their investments.
She added that Nigeria’s experience under the PIA demonstrates what was possible, saying: “The PIA has enabled a turnaround in the oil and gas industry. The opportunities are immense. The regulatory environment is there.”
Chevron Nigeria Limited (CNL), operator of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and CNL Joint Venture, has stressed the importance of strengthening the regulatory framework in the Nigerian oil and gas industry to enhance growth opportunities.
Chairman and Managing Director of Chevron companies in Nigeria and the Mid Africa Region, Jim Swartz, made this known at the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) Energy and Labour Summit (PEALS) in Abuja on Wednesday August 19, 2026.
Represented by Segun Kuteyi, Director of Operations and Chief Operating Officer, Chevron Nigeria and Mid Africa Region, Jim noted that Nigeria remains one of the world’s most resource-rich energy nations, with substantial oil reserves, abundant natural gas, a strategic location, and a skilled workforce, adding that these strengths position the country for sustained growth and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving global energy landscape.
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He remarked that resources alone are not enough to guarantee success and emphasized that what makes the difference is the environment in which investments, businesses, and people operate. “A predictable, transparent, and efficient regulatory framework builds confidence; and confidence attracts investment, drives innovation, creates jobs, and supports economic growth,’ he stated.
Jim emphasized that regulatory certainty could be a catalyst for investor commitments and noted that in Chevron, regulatory reforms in the industry continue to enable its growth opportunities post-Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, with key drivers being exploration and new discoveries, infill drilling and brownfield optimisation as well as monetisation and integrated developments
According to him, some of the company’s key achievements include the renewal and conversion of its Joint Venture and Deepwater leases; continued investment in exploration, asset and gas development, and monetisation; the recent Chevron’s acquisition of Deepwater block, Petroleum Prospecting License (PPL 2010); equity investments in recent announcements by Shell on Bonga Southwest/Aparo (BSWAP), and ExxonMobil on Owowo/Usan and the sustained social investments and community partnerships for over six decades.
While emphasizing the importance of safety, collaboration and human dimension in the Nigerian oil and gas industry, he stated that the industry challenges could be addressed through strengthening regulatory certainty, advancing transparency and accountability, driving investment across the value chain and promote collaboration across the industry, supporting innovation and digital transformation and building workforce capability and future-ready skills.
“At Chevron, we believe people are our greatest asset. No regulatory framework can fully succeed without a capable, motivated, and protected workforce. That is why forums such as PEALS are important: they bring government, labour, and industry together to align on shared goals and deepen mutual understanding,” he remarked.
Nigeria has mined over 4.6 billion barrels of crude oil from deep offshore assets worth over 5,000 tankers.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), revealed this on Tuesday Live on NTA hosted by Cyril Stober.
The Commission Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, represented by the Executive Commissioner, Development and Production of the NUPRC, Engineer Enorense Amadasu, asserted that the achievement was made possible by the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Project Incentives (Tax Remission) Executive Order (EO) 2026 recently signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
She added that the EO has the potential not only to unlock $50bn in investments but can also create an additional one million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate from deep offshore fields.
Eyesan explained that the reform establishes a transparent, rules-based investment framework capable of supporting the next generation of deep offshore developments.
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She noted that presently, Nigeria produces about 1.7mbpd of crude oil and condensate but deep offshore accounts for just about 24 percent of total oil production and 19 percent of gas.
Eyesan pointed out that with Field Development Plans (FDPs) running into billions of dollars already approved by the NUPRC, the executive order will encourage IOCs to make quicker Final Investment Decisions (FIDs).
“So, where will these volumes be coming from? Nine of these projects have approved FDPs so the next step expected is the FID in the near to midterm.
The $10bn Bonga South will come in 2027 and within the next four to five years, we are expecting almost an additional one million barrels additional per day,” she stated.
According to Eyesan, the executive order also presents an opportunity for other sectors like the marine economy which will need to expand Nigeria’s logistics/marine base so the country can sustain the volume of deep offshore projects being expected.
“It aims to make Nigeria the regional hub for deep offshore projects,” Eyesan said.
Other benefits of the executive order as explained by CCE include: growth in reserves, technological/skills transfer and new jobs.
Brent crude closed above $90 per barrel on Monday as Iran threatened to launch a military offensive in the Strait of Hormuz if diplomatic efforts to end its war with the United States fail.
The benchmark Brent crude was quoted at $90.53 per barrel as of Monday evening, gaining $2.01, or 2.27 per cent, according to oilprice.com. US West Texas Intermediate crude also climbed to $84.25 per barrel, up $1.85, or 2.25 per cent.
According to Reuters, the rise followed renewed tensions around the strategic Strait of Hormuz after a senior Iranian official told the news agency that Tehran had shifted its policy from defensive to “fully offensive” because of a deadlock in efforts to secure a permanent end to the war.
The official said Iran was prepared to take military action in the Strait of Hormuz if diplomatic efforts failed. “Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions,” the official told Reuters.
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He added that Tehran would conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the United States naval blockade if diplomacy failed.
The development threatens to further disrupt tanker movements through Hormuz, a key global energy corridor, at a time when efforts to restore oil traffic through the waterway have stalled.
According to Reuters, progress towards peace talks and the resumption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt, with neither side showing signs of moving towards an end to the conflict.
The latest escalation came on the day Iran and the United States were expected to reach a final agreement under a memorandum of understanding signed in June.
The June 17 memorandum provided a 60-day timeframe for Washington and Tehran to reach a broader agreement concerning Iran’s nuclear programme and US sanctions.
The interim agreement, which called for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, however, quickly collapsed over disagreements concerning control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway, which is shared by Iran and Oman, is a major route for global energy supplies. It was reported that about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flowed through the strait before the war.
Tehran maintains that the June agreement gave it the right to manage the waterway, while Washington rejected that interpretation.
The dispute subsequently contributed to the resumption of hostilities, with Iran firing on vessels it said were attempting to sail through the strait using an unauthorised route.
US President Donald Trump subsequently declared on July 7 that the agreement was over.
The Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had now given the United States only a short period to implement all the provisions of the agreement before further negotiations could take place.
“Within the short period of a few weeks set by Iran, all the agreement’s provisions must be implemented by the U.S. This is a precondition for further negotiations with the US,” the official said.
Mediators are expected to communicate Iran’s deadline to Washington and other regional countries. Iran is also separately negotiating with Oman over the management of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying the two countries are close to an agreement despite slow progress.
The situation was further complicated by Trump’s warning to Oman during a phone interview with Fox News on Monday. “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the shit out of them,” Trump said, according to Reuters.
Earlier, Trump said Iran should surrender, telling Fox News that Tehran “should put up the white flag of surrender”. The renewed threats have heightened concerns over the security of shipping through Hormuz and helped push crude prices higher on Monday.
The price movement also comes after oil had traded below the $80 mark earlier in the month amid expectations that tensions around the waterway could ease. Monday’s Brent price of $90.53 therefore represented a fresh rise above the $90 threshold, while WTI stood at $84.25 per barrel.
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