Energy
Middle East Crisis Opens 10 Million bpd Oil Supply Window for Nigeria, African Countries
As ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have removed an estimated 10 million barrels of oil per day from the global market, Africa, with Nigeria at the forefront, is emerging as the most viable region to help bridge the widening supply gap.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stated this while speaking during the Africa Energy Forum at the ongoing Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas, United States.
Eyesan declared that Africa has become the new focal point of global energy discussions owing to its 125 billion barrels and 625 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, respectively, representing 10 per cent of global reserves.
She noted that the sudden shortfall has shifted global attention to under-explored regions and that the only continent that promises to fill the supply gap is Africa.
“Today, we believe that about 10 million barrels have been taken off the market in a situation where you had a slight oversupply at one time. With 10 million off the market, there’s a huge deficit. The question on everybody’s lips is where this deficit will come from. Or rather, who will fill the gap?
“Let’s x-ray the North Sea. The North Sea was prolific in the past but is declining. North America, same story. And if you layer Asia on that, it’s all decline. However, the only continent that is showing promise today is no other than Africa”, she said.
Citing discoveries and huge oil and gas reserves across the continent, she pointed to Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, and Namibia as examples.
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However, with such abundant reserves in Africa, she said the challenge was how to convert those opportunities into value.
For Nigeria, the NUPRC boss said the answer has been regulatory reform credited to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), enacted in 2021, which she noted was triggering a rebirth in the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector.
“Nigeria has experienced a rebirth since 2021 and the rebirth was instrumental to the change and the opportunities that Nigeria has today.
“The PIA has provided fiscal clarity, regulatory efficiency, contract certainty, and transparency across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments.
“The only way Africa, sitting on huge resources, can bridge that gap successfully is if we have the right regulatory systems to support the business terrain. And Nigeria is not alone in that march,” the NUPRC boss said.
In Nigeria, Eyesan said the results are already evident in investment trends compared to ten years before the PIA, when there was a steep decline in investment in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.
According to her, “About 15 years before the PIA, we were comfortably spending $15 billion annually on the upstream business. This declined to less than $7 billion at some point. Today, we see an upswing.”
She told the global audience in the room that several multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) have been secured or are on the verge of being committed, including the Shell Bonga Project, the Ubeita Non-Associated Gas Project, the HI Gas Project, and the Zabazaba-Etan Field, which was expected to unlock $10.38 billion.
“These are huge projects and a signal that the tide has turned”, Eyesan stated.
In 2024 alone, she said the NUPRC approved 48 Field Development Plans (FDPs), describing that as a major index of progress in the oil and gas industry.
She said the industry has witnessed the enablements from the PIA and that opportunities were just waiting to be unlocked.
She reiterated that the ongoing licensing round, where 50 blocks are offered, and 300 companies are competing, would be concluded by the third quarter of 2026.
Eyesan also announced that another bid round would commence before the end of the 2025 bid round, saying that this was an indication that the opportunities were immense.
To support bidders, Eyesan said NUPRC was enhancing its National Data Repository with large-scale 2D and 3D seismic data acquisition through multi-client partnerships.
She expressed confidence that bidders who finally acquire the assets will work them and bring them to market in the shortest possible time.
To enable this, she explained that the data repository was also being upgraded for advanced analytics, as they seek to embrace artificial intelligence to quicken the process.
Underscoring the importance of capital investment in optimising Africa’s huge untapped oil and gas resources, Eyesan framed the continent’s energy challenge as one of infrastructure and capital rather than resources.
She recalled that Africa took the brunt during the start of the conversation on energy transition due to a lack of investment and infrastructure.
She urged investors to come and invest in the African oil and gas industry, assuring them of a quick return on their investments.
She added that Nigeria’s experience under the PIA demonstrates what was possible, saying: “The PIA has enabled a turnaround in the oil and gas industry. The opportunities are immense. The regulatory environment is there.”
Nigeria’s local refiners could not take up an estimated $3.13bn worth of crude oil offered to them in Q1 2026.
This was gleaned from data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), which indicates that while crude producers made significant volumes available under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), refiners were unable to take delivery of a large portion due to persistent commercial and structural challenges.
The latest data showed a significant mismatch between crude availability and actual refinery offtake, despite regulatory efforts to deepen domestic refining. The figures indicate that producers collectively made available 68.7 million barrels of crude between January and March, far above allocated requirements, yet refiners struggled to convert the offers into actual deliveries.
This translates to a weak conversion rate of about 36–46 per cent, underscoring persistent structural and commercial bottlenecks in the domestic crude supply chain.
Findings showed that the total gap between crude offered and actual refinery offtake stood at 40.3 million barrels in the three-month period, with the shortfall valued at about $3.13bn using conservative average prices.
Figures released by the NUPRC indicated that while 61.9 million barrels were allocated to domestic refiners during the period, oil producers collectively offered 68.7 million barrels.
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However, actual deliveries lagged significantly, with refiners lifting just 28.5 million barrels, indicating that crude producers supplied local refineries with less than half of the volumes allocated under the country’s domestic crude supply rules.
The development underscores a persistent gap between crude availability and actual refinery intake, raising fresh concerns over feedstock adequacy for Nigeria’s refining ambitions.
In the press statement earlier issued by the commission, the NUPRC Head of Media and Corporate Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, said the data reflected ongoing efforts to enforce the DCSO in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
The statement read, “The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has released the statistics on the enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation in accordance with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.
“A summary of the monthly allocation shows that 61.9 million barrels of crude oil were allocated to domestic refineries during the quarter, while producers collectively offered a higher volume of 68.7 million barrels. However, actual supply to local refineries was 28.5 million barrels, translating to a supply conversion rate of 36-46 per cent as of the end of the first quarter 2026.”
A breakdown of the value of rejected crude revealed that in January, producers offered 25.3 million barrels, but refiners lifted only 9.2 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of 16.1 million barrels valued at approximately $1.09bn.
In February, out of the 19.8 million barrels offered, refiners took 9.1 million barrels, resulting in a gap of 10.7 million barrels worth about $749m. Similarly, in March, refiners lifted 10.1 million barrels from the 23.6 million barrels offered, leaving 13.5 million barrels unutilised, with an estimated value of $1.28bn.
The data underscores a persistent disconnect between crude supply and refinery demand, despite regulatory efforts to prioritise local refining under the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited has assured that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) remains the same in Nigeria, stating that its ex‑depot price remains unchanged.
The Refinery by sustaining its current prices is reaffirming its commitment to supporting stability in the domestic energy market and cushioning the wider economy against external shocks. By absorbing prevailing cost pressures, the refinery continues to help moderate inflationary risks, promote energy affordability, and ensure uninterrupted supply amid ongoing global uncertainties.
The Dangote Refinery reaffirmed its dedication to the steady supply of high‑quality petroleum products to the Nigerian market, while supporting national objectives of price stability and energy security.
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The public is urged to rely solely on official statements from Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited for accurate and up‑to‑date information on its operations and pricing.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), has reiterated commitment to enabling a business-friendly environment and advancing the federal government’s gas agenda.
The Commission’s Chief Executive (CCE), Oritsemeyewa Eyesan, voiced the commitment during a visit by the Managing Director of Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), Adeleye Falade, according to a statement in Abuja by its Head, Media and Corporate Communications of the commission, Eniola Akinkuotu.
Receiving the NLNG delegation, Eyesan said: “We are deliberately repositioning the commission as a business enabler,” she said, adding “Through our monthly stakeholder engagements, we X-ray industry performance and resolve issues proactively to ensure they do not escalate.”
The NUPRC chief restated the administration’s responsiveness to the oil and gas sector, linking it to improved investor confidence and increased final investment decisions.
Eyesan added that: “The Decade of Gas is not aspirational; it is a practical framework for expanding domestic utilisation while strengthening export capacity.”
In his remarks, the NLNG Managing Director, Falade, stressed the centrality of upstream collaboration to sustaining gas supply.
Falade highlighted NLNG’s domestic Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) strategy as a deliberate market-shaping intervention.
“Today, 100 per cent of our LPG production is dedicated to the domestic market — not due to reduced output, but because demand has expanded significantly,” he said.
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Looking ahead, he noted that: “Train 7, expected to come on stream next year, will increase our production capacity by about 35 per cent, positioning us to scale both domestic supply and export volumes.”
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