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Middle East Crisis Opens 10 Million bpd Oil Supply Window for Nigeria, African Countries

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As ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have removed an estimated 10 million barrels of oil per day from the global market, Africa, with Nigeria at the forefront, is emerging as the most viable region to help bridge the widening supply gap.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stated this while speaking during the Africa Energy Forum at the ongoing Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas, United States.

Eyesan declared that Africa has become the new focal point of global energy discussions owing to its 125 billion barrels and 625 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, respectively, representing 10 per cent of global reserves.

She noted that the sudden shortfall has shifted global attention to under-explored regions and that the only continent that promises to fill the supply gap is Africa.

“Today, we believe that about 10 million barrels have been taken off the market in a situation where you had a slight oversupply at one time. With 10 million off the market, there’s a huge deficit. The question on everybody’s lips is where this deficit will come from. Or rather, who will fill the gap?

“Let’s x-ray the North Sea. The North Sea was prolific in the past but is declining. North America, same story. And if you layer Asia on that, it’s all decline. However, the only continent that is showing promise today is no other than Africa”, she said.

Citing discoveries and huge oil and gas reserves across the continent, she pointed to Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, and Namibia as examples.

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However, with such abundant reserves in Africa, she said the challenge was how to convert those opportunities into value.

For Nigeria, the NUPRC boss said the answer has been regulatory reform credited to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), enacted in 2021, which she noted was triggering a rebirth in the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector.

“Nigeria has experienced a rebirth since 2021 and the rebirth was instrumental to the change and the opportunities that Nigeria has today.

“The PIA has provided fiscal clarity, regulatory efficiency, contract certainty, and transparency across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments.

“The only way Africa, sitting on huge resources, can bridge that gap successfully is if we have the right regulatory systems to support the business terrain. And Nigeria is not alone in that march,” the NUPRC boss said.

In Nigeria, Eyesan said the results are already evident in investment trends compared to ten years before the PIA, when there was a steep decline in investment in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

According to her, “About 15 years before the PIA, we were comfortably spending $15 billion annually on the upstream business. This declined to less than $7 billion at some point. Today, we see an upswing.”

She told the global audience in the room that several multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) have been secured or are on the verge of being committed, including the Shell Bonga Project, the Ubeita Non-Associated Gas Project, the HI Gas Project, and the Zabazaba-Etan Field, which was expected to unlock $10.38 billion.

“These are huge projects and a signal that the tide has turned”, Eyesan stated.

In 2024 alone, she said the NUPRC approved 48 Field Development Plans (FDPs), describing that as a major index of progress in the oil and gas industry.

She said the industry has witnessed the enablements from the PIA and that opportunities were just waiting to be unlocked.

She reiterated that the ongoing licensing round, where 50 blocks are offered, and 300 companies are competing, would be concluded by the third quarter of 2026.

Eyesan also announced that another bid round would commence before the end of the 2025 bid round, saying that this was an indication that the opportunities were immense.

To support bidders, Eyesan said NUPRC was enhancing its National Data Repository with large-scale 2D and 3D seismic data acquisition through multi-client partnerships.

She expressed confidence that bidders who finally acquire the assets will work them and bring them to market in the shortest possible time.

To enable this, she explained that the data repository was also being upgraded for advanced analytics, as they seek to embrace artificial intelligence to quicken the process.

Underscoring the importance of capital investment in optimising Africa’s huge untapped oil and gas resources, Eyesan framed the continent’s energy challenge as one of infrastructure and capital rather than resources.

She recalled that Africa took the brunt during the start of the conversation on energy transition due to a lack of investment and infrastructure.

She urged investors to come and invest in the African oil and gas industry, assuring them of a quick return on their investments.

She added that Nigeria’s experience under the PIA demonstrates what was possible, saying: “The PIA has enabled a turnaround in the oil and gas industry. The opportunities are immense. The regulatory environment is there.”

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Nigeria’s Q1 Gas Production Increases to 687bscf, Flaring Drops 8%

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Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that Nigeria’s gas production rose by about 3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, while gas flaring declined by over 8 percent year-on-year.

An analysis of the commission’s gas production status reports for the first three months of 2025 and 2026 revealed that total gas output increased from 667.27 Billion Standard Cubic Feet (BSCF) in Q1 2025 to 687.09 billion scf in Q1 2026.

The increase of approximately 19.81 billion standard cubic feet represented a year-on-year growth of about 2.97 percent, highlighting continued slow but steady expansion in Nigeria’s gas sector amid the federal government’s push to deepen gas utilisation and monetisation.

In addition, the NUPRC figures had it that January 2026 gas production stood at 233.96 billion scf, compared to 236.32 billion scf in January 2025.

However, production rebounded strongly in the subsequent months, with February 2026 output rising to 212.62 billion scf from 199.68 billion scf in February 2025.

In the same vein, March 2026 production climbed to 240.51 billion scf, compared to 231.28 billion scf recorded in March 2025, making it the highest monthly production level in the period under review.

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At the same time, the data showed marked improvement in gas flare management. Total gas flared in Q1 2025 stood at 50.95 billion scf, compared to 46.83 billion scf in Q1 2026. The reduction of about 4.12 billion scf translated to a decline of roughly 8.1 percent year-on-year.

Similarly, average flare intensity improved significantly during the period. The average gas flare rate dropped from about 7.65 percent in Q1 2025 to approximately 6.81 percent in Q1 2026, indicating that a larger proportion of produced gas was captured for productive use rather than burnt off.

In the same vein, monthly flare rates for Q1 2025 were 7.92 percent in January, 7.94 per cent in February and 7.08 percent in March. For Q1 2026, the flare rates declined to 7.34 percent in January, 6.62 percent in February and 6.48 percent in March.

The data also revealed a significant shift in the structure of Nigeria’s gas production. Associated gas production, which is gas produced alongside crude oil, declined during the review period.

Total associated gas output fell from 370.28 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 332.82 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026. In contrast, non-associated gas production recorded substantial growth.

Non-associated gas output increased from 296.99 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 354.17 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026, suggesting increased contribution from standalone gas projects and dedicated gas developments, rather than reliance on oil-linked gas production.

Also, export gas sales recorded one of the strongest improvements during the quarter. The NUPRC data showed that export gas sales rose from 223.99 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 292.87 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026.

This represented an increase of about 68.89 billion standard cubic feet or approximately 30.75 percent year-on-year. Findings show that the increase was likely driven by stronger Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export performance and improved international demand for Nigerian gas supplies.

However, domestic gas sales weakened slightly during the same period. Domestic sales declined from 186.98 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 171.15 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026, representing a drop of roughly 8.5 percent.

This raised concerns regarding the adequacy of gas supply to Nigeria’s domestic market, especially for power generation and industrial use. Despite the decline in domestic sales, gas utilisation efficiency improved marginally due to lower flare volumes.

The improved flare metrics suggested that operators were more efficient in capturing and commercialising produced gas. According to the data, total utilised gas stood at 639.91 billion scf in Q1 2025 and 639.68 billion scf in Q1 2026, indicating relatively stable utilisation volumes despite higher production.

With proven gas reserves estimated at about 215.19 trillion cubic feet (TCF), Nigeria has in recent years increasingly prioritised natural gas as a transition fuel capable of supporting domestic energy needs, industrial growth, petrochemical expansion and export earnings.

The federal government has also intensified efforts to reduce routine gas flaring through stricter regulatory enforcement and commercialisation initiatives targeted at flare gas recovery, especially through the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP).

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Energy

Renewed US-Iran Tensions Drag Oil Price Northwards

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After the United States carried out what it described as defensive strikes in southern Iran, which put fresh question marks over the fragile ceasefire and ongoing peace talks between Washington and Tehran, oil prices spiralled on Tuesday.

The world is taken aback because the strikes came in the midst of hopes that both countries were nearing an agreement to end the three-month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the free movement of oil shipments.

Consequently, from about $97 per barrel on Monday, global benchmark Brent crude futures rose by roughly 3.5 percent on Tuesday to around $100 per barrel.

According to reports, US forces struck missile-launch sites and other targets in southern Iran on Monday, even as the Donald Trump administration signalled that a peace agreement between the two sides could be close.

In a statement, the US Central Command said the attacks were defensive in nature. “US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines,” CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said.

Reacting, Iran accused the United States of violating the ceasefire with the strikes. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the attacks in the southern Hormozgan province, where Iranian media reported explosions early on Tuesday, amounted to a “gross violation” of the fragile ceasefire that has been in place for nearly seven weeks, according to Reuters.

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Both sides had earlier indicated progress on a memorandum of understanding that could halt the war and restore shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz, while giving negotiators 60 days to address more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme.

Reports also indicated that Iranian negotiators had pushed for the proposed agreement to include the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets during talks held in Qatar.

The war, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, has triggered a major oil supply shock, increasing the costs of fuel, fertiliser, and food globally. Iran had responded to the attacks by launching drones and missiles at Gulf states hosting US military bases.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, has remained significantly below normal levels since the conflict began.

Although diplomatic efforts are continuing, there are growing fears that the latest US strikes could further escalate tensions in the Middle East and disrupt global energy supplies.

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At 92% Completion, NLNG Train 7 Nears Pre-commissioning Phase

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The seventh gas liquefaction train of the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) Limited is on the verge of completion, having reached 92 percent of project stages.

The plant which aligns with existing trains at the company’s gas processing complex in Bonny Island, Rivers State, will propel Nigeria’s LNG production capacity with additional 8.0 million tons per annum (mtpa) from current 22 mtpa to 30 mpta upon completion.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, NLNG, Adeleye Falade, made the revelation at a forum hosted by the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) in Lagos.

According to him, the $7.0 billion project driven by Saipem, Chiyoda, Daewoo continues to enjoy broad support from the presidency and industry regulators.

In a presentation delivered on his behalf at the event, Falade stated that the project has so far consumed a significant 120 million man hours out of the target 200 million man hours of mostly indigenous labour.

He also declared that the company has enhanced all safety measures on the construction site after recording two lost time on injury (LTI) incidents. He assured that the project contractors are prioritizing workplace safety as the project drives to pre-commissioning stages.

Mr Falade, whose presentation was delivered by Train 7 Project Manager, Ali Uwais, also noted that the Train 7 project has helped galvanize local investment in steel fabrication and galvanizing capabilities, pointing at the 4000 tons of steel already deployed in the project.

He also pointed to the spur effect in the domestic cable manufacturing industry, stating that all cables used in the project are manufactured in Nigeria. He, however, added that additional interventions are required to close quality gaps in the local manufacturing industry.

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In noting the urgent need for in-country standard accountabilities, Mr Falade challenged agencies and regulators in the manufacturing industry to rise to the plate of ensuring international competitiveness on product quality.’

In counting some of the interventions driven by the company to close capacity and capability gaps in the domestic industry, he noted that the NLNG is relentless in establishing centers of excellence in tertiary institutions in the country with the purpose of addressing human capacity deficits.

The Train 7 project alone, he pointed out, has facilitated the training of 13,000 Nigerians, bolstered community focused participation initiatives, and facilitated rapid infrastructure development in the host Bonny Island.

Mr Falade told the industry audience at the event that the real value of the Train 7 project must transcend site activities to capture capacity, facilities and infrastructure developed for the project.

He called on other players in the industry to contribute to building capacity, standards and quality that compete globally, adding that Train 7 proves that Nigeria can grow and develop to global standards.

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