Energy
Middle East Crisis Opens 10 Million bpd Oil Supply Window for Nigeria, African Countries
As ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, have removed an estimated 10 million barrels of oil per day from the global market, Africa, with Nigeria at the forefront, is emerging as the most viable region to help bridge the widening supply gap.
The Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, stated this while speaking during the Africa Energy Forum at the ongoing Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, Texas, United States.
Eyesan declared that Africa has become the new focal point of global energy discussions owing to its 125 billion barrels and 625 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, respectively, representing 10 per cent of global reserves.
She noted that the sudden shortfall has shifted global attention to under-explored regions and that the only continent that promises to fill the supply gap is Africa.
“Today, we believe that about 10 million barrels have been taken off the market in a situation where you had a slight oversupply at one time. With 10 million off the market, there’s a huge deficit. The question on everybody’s lips is where this deficit will come from. Or rather, who will fill the gap?
“Let’s x-ray the North Sea. The North Sea was prolific in the past but is declining. North America, same story. And if you layer Asia on that, it’s all decline. However, the only continent that is showing promise today is no other than Africa”, she said.
Citing discoveries and huge oil and gas reserves across the continent, she pointed to Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Senegal, and Namibia as examples.
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However, with such abundant reserves in Africa, she said the challenge was how to convert those opportunities into value.
For Nigeria, the NUPRC boss said the answer has been regulatory reform credited to the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), enacted in 2021, which she noted was triggering a rebirth in the upstream, midstream, and downstream oil and gas sector.
“Nigeria has experienced a rebirth since 2021 and the rebirth was instrumental to the change and the opportunities that Nigeria has today.
“The PIA has provided fiscal clarity, regulatory efficiency, contract certainty, and transparency across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments.
“The only way Africa, sitting on huge resources, can bridge that gap successfully is if we have the right regulatory systems to support the business terrain. And Nigeria is not alone in that march,” the NUPRC boss said.
In Nigeria, Eyesan said the results are already evident in investment trends compared to ten years before the PIA, when there was a steep decline in investment in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.
According to her, “About 15 years before the PIA, we were comfortably spending $15 billion annually on the upstream business. This declined to less than $7 billion at some point. Today, we see an upswing.”
She told the global audience in the room that several multi-billion-dollar Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) have been secured or are on the verge of being committed, including the Shell Bonga Project, the Ubeita Non-Associated Gas Project, the HI Gas Project, and the Zabazaba-Etan Field, which was expected to unlock $10.38 billion.
“These are huge projects and a signal that the tide has turned”, Eyesan stated.
In 2024 alone, she said the NUPRC approved 48 Field Development Plans (FDPs), describing that as a major index of progress in the oil and gas industry.
She said the industry has witnessed the enablements from the PIA and that opportunities were just waiting to be unlocked.
She reiterated that the ongoing licensing round, where 50 blocks are offered, and 300 companies are competing, would be concluded by the third quarter of 2026.
Eyesan also announced that another bid round would commence before the end of the 2025 bid round, saying that this was an indication that the opportunities were immense.
To support bidders, Eyesan said NUPRC was enhancing its National Data Repository with large-scale 2D and 3D seismic data acquisition through multi-client partnerships.
She expressed confidence that bidders who finally acquire the assets will work them and bring them to market in the shortest possible time.
To enable this, she explained that the data repository was also being upgraded for advanced analytics, as they seek to embrace artificial intelligence to quicken the process.
Underscoring the importance of capital investment in optimising Africa’s huge untapped oil and gas resources, Eyesan framed the continent’s energy challenge as one of infrastructure and capital rather than resources.
She recalled that Africa took the brunt during the start of the conversation on energy transition due to a lack of investment and infrastructure.
She urged investors to come and invest in the African oil and gas industry, assuring them of a quick return on their investments.
She added that Nigeria’s experience under the PIA demonstrates what was possible, saying: “The PIA has enabled a turnaround in the oil and gas industry. The opportunities are immense. The regulatory environment is there.”
OPEC+ ministers decided Sunday to increase oil quotas by a total 188,000 barrels per day for July, in a move analysts said would be unlikely to have an impact on prices sent higher by the Mideast war.
Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, said ahead of the expected increase that it “means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed”.
He added: “The market is not short of quota announcements; it is short of physical barrels that can actually move. In that sense, the 188,000 barrels per day increase would be more of a policy signal than a real supply boost.”
The hiked production output was agreed Sunday in a video meeting of oil ministers from key OPEC+ countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, a statement from the organisation said.
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The increase was similar to ones decided in previous months.
The OPEC+ statement said the latest agreed hike was “to support oil market stability” but that the seven countries also saw an opportunity “to accelerate their compensation” in a time of historically high oil prices.
It added that the ministers “reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments announced in November 2023”.
Leon, at Rystad Energy, said that OPEC+ was wary in case the Mideast war changes, and Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz eases.
“When the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the market could move very quickly from fear of shortage to fear of surplus,” he said.
“Returning OPEC+ supply, a stronger US shale response and weaker demand after a period of very high prices could leave the market with a very large oversupply problem,” he said.
AFP
Nigeria, Algeria, and Niger have expressed joint commitment to the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) project, which is set to significantly strengthen Africa’s regional energy security.
Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, made the disclosure on Thursday at the 5th Ministerial Meeting of the TSGP Steering Committee in Algiers.
The high-level session included ministerial delegations from the three participating nations and a strategic consultation with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
The minister reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to the successful delivery of the multi-billion-dollar infrastructure project, describing it as a landmark initiative that will redefine energy security across the continent.
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According to Ekpo, technical and commercial discussions are ongoing among stakeholders to reinforce the regulatory and financial frameworks required for the project’s implementation.
He noted that officials from the three countries have reviewed the latest feasibility reports and officially resolved that the project proceeds immediately into its next development phases.
“This project means a lot to the three countries in terms of industrialisation and job creation,” Ekpo asserted.
“We’ve talked about the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, and the President of Algeria has expressed his interest in the completion of the project,” Ekpo said. “I assure him that on the part of Nigeria, we will do everything possible to ensure the project sees the light of day.”
The minister pledged to work closely with his counterparts in Algeria and Niger, as well as the respective national oil companies — including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and Algeria’s Sonatrach — to accelerate project implementation.
On his part, President Tebboune reaffirmed Algeria’s full diplomatic and financial commitment to the pipeline.
He expressed confidence that with the robust political will demonstrated by the three governments, the pipeline will seamlessly move from planning to execution.
Tebboune noted that when completed, the transnational pipeline would deliver energy security, lucrative investment opportunities, and sustainable economic development for millions of people across Africa and European export markets.
Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that Nigeria’s gas production rose by about 3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, while gas flaring declined by over 8 percent year-on-year.
An analysis of the commission’s gas production status reports for the first three months of 2025 and 2026 revealed that total gas output increased from 667.27 Billion Standard Cubic Feet (BSCF) in Q1 2025 to 687.09 billion scf in Q1 2026.
The increase of approximately 19.81 billion standard cubic feet represented a year-on-year growth of about 2.97 percent, highlighting continued slow but steady expansion in Nigeria’s gas sector amid the federal government’s push to deepen gas utilisation and monetisation.
In addition, the NUPRC figures had it that January 2026 gas production stood at 233.96 billion scf, compared to 236.32 billion scf in January 2025.
However, production rebounded strongly in the subsequent months, with February 2026 output rising to 212.62 billion scf from 199.68 billion scf in February 2025.
In the same vein, March 2026 production climbed to 240.51 billion scf, compared to 231.28 billion scf recorded in March 2025, making it the highest monthly production level in the period under review.
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At the same time, the data showed marked improvement in gas flare management. Total gas flared in Q1 2025 stood at 50.95 billion scf, compared to 46.83 billion scf in Q1 2026. The reduction of about 4.12 billion scf translated to a decline of roughly 8.1 percent year-on-year.
Similarly, average flare intensity improved significantly during the period. The average gas flare rate dropped from about 7.65 percent in Q1 2025 to approximately 6.81 percent in Q1 2026, indicating that a larger proportion of produced gas was captured for productive use rather than burnt off.
In the same vein, monthly flare rates for Q1 2025 were 7.92 percent in January, 7.94 per cent in February and 7.08 percent in March. For Q1 2026, the flare rates declined to 7.34 percent in January, 6.62 percent in February and 6.48 percent in March.
The data also revealed a significant shift in the structure of Nigeria’s gas production. Associated gas production, which is gas produced alongside crude oil, declined during the review period.
Total associated gas output fell from 370.28 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 332.82 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026. In contrast, non-associated gas production recorded substantial growth.
Non-associated gas output increased from 296.99 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 354.17 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026, suggesting increased contribution from standalone gas projects and dedicated gas developments, rather than reliance on oil-linked gas production.
Also, export gas sales recorded one of the strongest improvements during the quarter. The NUPRC data showed that export gas sales rose from 223.99 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 292.87 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026.
This represented an increase of about 68.89 billion standard cubic feet or approximately 30.75 percent year-on-year. Findings show that the increase was likely driven by stronger Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export performance and improved international demand for Nigerian gas supplies.
However, domestic gas sales weakened slightly during the same period. Domestic sales declined from 186.98 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2025 to 171.15 billion standard cubic feet in Q1 2026, representing a drop of roughly 8.5 percent.
This raised concerns regarding the adequacy of gas supply to Nigeria’s domestic market, especially for power generation and industrial use. Despite the decline in domestic sales, gas utilisation efficiency improved marginally due to lower flare volumes.
The improved flare metrics suggested that operators were more efficient in capturing and commercialising produced gas. According to the data, total utilised gas stood at 639.91 billion scf in Q1 2025 and 639.68 billion scf in Q1 2026, indicating relatively stable utilisation volumes despite higher production.
With proven gas reserves estimated at about 215.19 trillion cubic feet (TCF), Nigeria has in recent years increasingly prioritised natural gas as a transition fuel capable of supporting domestic energy needs, industrial growth, petrochemical expansion and export earnings.
The federal government has also intensified efforts to reduce routine gas flaring through stricter regulatory enforcement and commercialisation initiatives targeted at flare gas recovery, especially through the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP).
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