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Middle East Crisis Sparks Most Severe Supply Shock in History — IEA

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) is of the view that the current Middle East crisis has destabilised global oil markets.

It pointed out that the ugly incident has cut demand expectations and triggered what it described as the most severe supply shock in history.

This was set out in its latest Oil Market Report, in which it asserted that the global oil demand is now projected to contract by 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, a sharp reversal from last month’s forecast growth of 730,000 bpd.

It added that a projected 1.5 million barrels per day drop in Q2 2026 would mark the steepest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.

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According to the IEA, early demand destruction is already visible in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, where consumption of naphtha, LPG and jet fuel has fallen sharply. It attributed this to rising prices, scarcity of supplies, and weakening industrial and aviation activity.

It pointed out that on the supply side, global oil output plunged by 10.1 mbpd in March to 97 mbpd, as continued attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted exports. OPEC+ production reportedly fell by 9.4 mbpd, while non-OPEC supply also weakened despite gains in the United States and Brazil.

The crisis, it was learnt, has also hit refining operations, with global crude throughputs constrained by feedstock shortages and damaged infrastructure. The IEA said refineries in the Middle East and Asia reportedly cut runs by around six mbpd, while global crude processing is now expected to decline by one mbpd on average in 2026.

Prices have also surged to historic levels, with Brent crude trading around $100 per barrel and physical crude briefly touching $150 per barrel, as refiners scramble for alternative supplies. Middle distillates in Asia reached record highs above $290 per barrel, reflecting extreme tightness in product markets, according to the report.

Inventories were said to have fallen sharply, with global observed stocks dropping by 85 million barrels in March. The IEA said supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz have been severely disrupted, cutting flows from over 20 mbpd before the conflict to about 3.8 mbpd.

While some exports have been rerouted through Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq–Türkiye pipelines, these alternatives have not offset losses exceeding 13 mbpd, the agency said, adding that floating storage has increased in the Middle East as stranded cargoes build up offshore.

The IEA stressed that restoring full flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the most critical factor in stabilising global energy markets, warning that prolonged disruption could deepen the supply shock, worsen inflationary pressures, and further weaken global oil demand.

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DPRP, Congo National Oil Consider Strategic Partnership

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The national oil company of the Republic of Congo, the Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC) and Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) are discussing a strategic partnership aimed at strengthening the Republic of the Congo’s supply of refined petroleum products.

The parties also have on the agenda, advancing regional energy cooperation and industrial integration across Africa, Biztellers can report.

SNPC Managing Director, Maixent Raoul Ominga, who led a delegation from his country on a visit to the DPRP, described the facility as a strategic asset for Africa and expressed the national oil company’s interest in developing a long-term partnership with Dangote.

“We have visited this remarkable refinery, which represents a major industrial achievement for Africa. The Republic of the Congo has refining capacity and we are keen to explore strategic cooperation that will help strengthen the supply of refined petroleum products while creating value for both organisations,” Ominga said.

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Discussions between both organisations, he said, focused on opportunities for collaboration in refining, petroleum products supply, energy security, industrial development, and knowledge sharing.

He praised the Dangote Group for demonstrating that Africa can successfully finance, build and operate world class industrial infrastructure, describing the refinery as an important milestone in the continent’s industrial transformation.

Ominga also commended the Group’s investments in the Republic of the Congo, particularly in the cement sector, noting that they have strengthened local industrial capacity, expanded production and improved access to construction materials.

On his part, President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), Aliko Dangote, reaffirmed the Group’s commitment to Africa’s industrialisation through value addition, regional partnerships and investment across the continent.

“We are for Africa, not just Nigeria. Tell us what you need, and we will see how we can work together,” Dangote said.

He noted that the refinery has established a new benchmark for fuel quality in Africa by producing petroleum products that meet the highest international specifications, while improving access to cleaner fuels and reducing the continent’s dependence on imported refined products.

In the same vein, the Vice President, Oil and Gas, DIL, Devakumar Edwin, outlined the Group’s long term expansion strategy, which will increase its total refining capacity to 2.1 million barrels per day, comprising 1.4 million barrels per day in Nigeria and a planned 700,000 barrels per day refining complex in Kenya to serve East African markets.

He also disclosed plans by the Group to invest an additional US$46 billion between 2026 and 2028 across its refining, cement and fertiliser businesses as part of its drive to accelerate industrialisation across Africa.

The engagement underscores the shared commitment of SNPC and the DPRP to deepen African energy cooperation, strengthen regional value chains and promote greater self sufficiency in refined petroleum products as the continent advances towards enhanced energy security and increased intra African trade.

Also present at the meeting were Group Executive Director, Commercial, Oil and Gas, DIL, Fatima Aliko Dangote; Adviser to the President of the Republic of the Congo, Peggy Ndongo and advisers to the SNPC Managing Director, Aymar Ebiou and Norbert Mabiala.

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Navy Intensifies War Against Crimes in Nigeria’s Oil Sector

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As part of efforts to protect Nigeria’s oil revenues and energy infrastructure, the Nigerian Navy recently recovered approximately 22,870 litres of suspected illegally refined Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) in Rivers State.

It was gathered that the value of the seized petroleum product is put at about N39 Million.

The seizure, carried out under Operation Delta Sentinel, is part of an ongoing security intervention designed to disrupt illicit petroleum supply chains which the Navy says continue to undermine government earnings and legitimate operators in the oil and gas sector.

ALSO READ: Tanzania, Dangote Group Explore Multi-Billion-Dollar Investments in Infrastructure, Energy, Fertiliser

According to the Navy, personnel of Nigerian Navy Ship (NNS) SOROH acted on intelligence reports and intercepted a wooden boat transporting 36 sacks of suspected illegally refined diesel in the Orashi Forest area of Okolomade Community, Abua/Odual Local Government Area of Rivers State.

In a media statement, Director of Information, Nigerian Navy, Captain Abiodun Folorunsho, revealed that further aerial surveillance and ground searches uncovered an additional 45 sacks of the product concealed under vegetation and inside ponds, bringing the total recovery to 81 sacks containing about 22,870 litres of AGO.

Navy Captain Forunsho stated that the operation highlights the growing use of intelligence and surveillance technology by security agencies to tackle crude oil theft and illegal refining activities, which industry stakeholders say contribute significantly to production losses, environmental degradation and reduced government revenue.

According to him, disrupting the logistics networks supporting illegal refining operations is critical to improving transparency in the petroleum value chain and safeguarding investments in Nigeria’s oil-producing region.

“The recovered products and the wooden boat used for transportation were handled in line with established anti-crude oil theft procedures.

Meanwhile, the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Idi Abbas, reaffirmed the commitment of the service to sustain intelligence-driven operations aimed at dismantling criminal networks involved in oil theft and protecting the nation’s strategic economic assets.

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Tanzania, Dangote Group Explore Multi-Billion-Dollar Investments in Infrastructure, Energy, Fertiliser

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President Samia Suluhu Hassan of Tanzania has held high level talks with President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, on a major expansion of the Group’s investments in Tanzania.

Biztellers reports that the discussions focused on transport infrastructure, fertiliser production, power generation, ports and regional trade.

The meeting, held at the State House in Dar es Salaam, reaffirmed the long-standing partnership between Tanzania and the Dangote Group while opening discussions on a new phase of investments aligned with the country’s industrialisation and economic transformation agenda.

Speaking after the meeting, Dangote said Tanzania remains one of Africa’s most attractive investment destinations, noting that the Group had identified several strategic sectors capable of delivering significant economic value.

“We have identified areas that can deliver significant value for Tanzania, and we are ready to work together to develop them for our mutual benefit,” he said.

The discussions covered a broad range of projects, including port development, the construction of a 40-kilometre concrete access road to support port operations, development of a special trade zone, a proposed 2,000-megawatt coal fired power plant, a urea fertiliser plant and transport infrastructure linking Mtwara with Mbamba Bay in southern Tanzania.

Dangote also explained the commercial and technical considerations behind the Group’s decision to locate its planned East African refinery in Lamu, Kenya, while extending an invitation to the Government of Tanzania to participate in the investment.

President Samia welcomed the Dangote Group’s continued confidence in Tanzania and directed relevant ministries and government agencies to commence detailed technical discussions on the proposed investments in line with the country’s legal, policy and development priorities.

She also appointed the Minister of Planning and Investment to coordinate the strategic partnership with Dangote Industries Limited, with both sides expected to begin formal negotiations in the coming days.

A Tanzanian government delegation led by the Minister is expected to visit Nigeria to advance discussions and develop implementation frameworks for the proposed projects.

According to a statement from the Directorate of Presidential Communications, the Government remains committed to strengthening partnerships with the private sector as part of efforts to mobilise productive investment, accelerate industrialisation, promote technology transfer, and create sustainable employment opportunities.

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Dangote Industries already operates one of Tanzania’s largest industrial investments through its US$500 million cement plant in Mtwara, which has an annual production capacity of three million tonnes and supplies both the domestic market and neighbouring countries.

The latest engagement deepens the partnership between Tanzania and the Dangote Group and reinforces the company’s position as one of Africa’s leading private sector investors driving regional industrialisation, infrastructure development, and economic integration.

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