Nigeria’s telecommunications sector has staged a strong recovery, with active mobile subscriptions soaring to 169.3 million in January 2025, up from 164.9 million in December 2024.

This marks a significant turnaround following a period of decline caused by mass SIM deactivations and sector rebasing, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) revealed in its latest industry report.

According to the NCC, the sector had suffered a sharp decline in September 2024, when subscriptions dropped to 154.9 million due to the deactivation of over 42 million SIM cards in February 2024.

READ ALSO: Diesel Shortage Could Cripple Telecom Services – ATCON Sounds Alarm

However, the steady growth in recent months signals renewed confidence in the industry.

“The growth was driven by two network operators, MTN and Airtel, which recorded an increase in their subscriber base in the month under review,” the NCC stated.

MTN and Airtel Lead Market Growth

MTN Nigeria maintained its dominance, increasing its market share to 51.7% with 87.5 million subscribers in January 2025, up from 84.6 million the previous month.

Airtel followed closely, expanding its subscriber base to 57.6 million and securing a 34.1% market share, up from 56.6 million in December.

Meanwhile, Globacom, which had previously suffered subscriber losses due to a regulatory audit, showed signs of recovery, growing from 20.1 million subscribers in December 2024 to 20.5 million in January 2025.

In contrast, 9mobile continued its downward trajectory. Once a major player in Nigeria’s telecom space, the company’s subscriber base has stagnated at 3.2 million for three consecutive months, a far cry from its peak of 23.4 million subscribers in 2015.

The NCC report also highlighted a sharp rise in mobile number portability activities.

A total of 8,708 subscribers switched networks in January 2025, a significant jump from the 2,998 recorded in December 2024.

9mobile bore the brunt of these migrations, losing 6,716 customers to rival networks in January.

Comparatively, MTN lost 1,188 subscribers, Airtel recorded 399 outgoing porting, while Globacom lost 405.

On the flip side, MTN emerged as the biggest gainer, attracting 5,551 new subscribers from other networks.

Airtel followed with 2,414 incoming porting, while Globacom gained 736. However, 9mobile recorded only seven incoming porting activities, further emphasizing its struggle to retain and attract subscribers.

The NCC also noted that the sector’s teledensity—measuring active phone connections per population—rose to 78.10% in January 2025, up from 76.08% in December 2024.

With the continued expansion of subscriber bases for MTN and Airtel, alongside the gradual recovery of Globacom, Nigeria’s telecom sector appears to be on an upward trajectory.

However, 9mobile’s persistent decline remains a concern, as the company struggles to regain its former market share.

Nigerians can expect further relief at fuel stations as petrol prices are projected to continue declining until June 2025, according to Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited.

Speaking on Channels Television’s Business Morning on Tuesday, Rewane attributed the ongoing reduction in petrol prices to competition between Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

Both entities have recently slashed prices, providing much-needed relief to consumers.

“So, generally, between now and June, we will see prices begin to decline. But after June, as things stabilize, depending on what happens in the global oil and currency market, we might begin to see some stabilization,” he explained.

READ MORE: Dangote Refinery Expands Feedstock With First Algerian Oil Deal

The price battle between Dangote Refinery and NNPCL has led to significant reductions, with Dangote Refinery lowering its gantry price from ₦890 to ₦825 per litre.

The company has also pledged to refund customers who purchased fuel at higher prices from its key distributors.

Rewane noted that while price wars are unsustainable in the long run, consumers stand to benefit in the short term.

“In a price war, nobody wins. The consumers win in the short run, then eventually, the market goes back to where it should be. But at the end of the day, between now and June, the price leadership will be firmly established,” he stated.

With fuel prices playing a critical role in Nigeria’s economy, analysts will be watching closely to see how global oil prices and exchange rates influence the market beyond mid-year.

The Dangote Refinery has broadened its crude sourcing strategy with the purchase of its first shipment of Algeria’s light sweet Saharan Blend, signaling a shift in procurement as it ramps up operations.

According to report, the refinery secured a 1 million-barrel cargo from trading firm Glencore, set to arrive at its Lekki-based facility between March 15 and 20.

While neither Dangote nor Glencore has officially confirmed the deal, pricing details remain undisclosed.

READ ALSO: Dangote Refunds N16bn On PMS Purchases Above Advertised Rates

The refinery has been receiving an average of 420,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude in 2024, with 82% classified as light sweet grades.

Nigerian crude remains the dominant source, accounting for 87% of total supply.

Market analysts suggest that Saharan Blend’s chemical properties align well with Dangote’s refining capabilities, making it a suitable alternative to Nigerian crude.

Additionally, its price competitiveness further strengthens its appeal.

The purchase comes amid weak demand in Europe, where seasonal refinery maintenance and an oversupply of light crude have slowed trading for March-loading Saharan Blend.

European buyers have hesitated due to anticipated price fluctuations, prompting sellers to seek alternative markets, including Nigeria.

As a result, Saharan Blend’s price declined by $1 per barrel in February, now trading at a 20-cent-per-barrel discount to the North Sea Dated benchmark on a free-on-board (FOB) Algeria basis.

By securing this shipment, Dangote Refinery is positioning itself strategically within the global crude market, leveraging pricing advantages while ensuring an optimized supply for its cutting-edge refining facility.