Oil
Nigeria risks losing oil buyers to Iran, S’Arabia
LAGOS-Nigeria, which recently lost its Africa’s top oil producer status to Angola on the back of huge decline in its output, stands a chance of losing some of its traditional buyers to rival producers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, industry experts have said.
Following the spate of production disruptions largely caused by the recent upsurge in militant attacks on oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta that have cut Nigeria’s output to the lowest in almost three decades, exports of the commodity from the country have taken a serious beating.
Offshore Oil rig
The nation relies heavily on earnings from oil exports, and the production cuts come as an additional headache for an economy that is already suffering from the sharp drop in oil prices since 2014.
Currently, four of the nation’s five largest export streams have been totally suspended as Forcados, Qua Iboe, Bonny Light and Brass River are under force majeure – a legal clause that allows the exporters to stop shipments without breaching contracts.
All but that of Qua Iboe was as a result of militant attacks.
Iran, which is engaged in a battle for market share in a bid to regain customers after years of curbed oil sales that crippled its economy, has ramped up its production and exports. Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, does not look set to rein in production.
An oil expert and Professor of Law and Co-Director, Institute for International and Immigration Law, Thurgood Marshall School of Law, Texas Southern University, United States, Emeka Duruigbo, in an emailed response to questions from our correspondent, said, “There is a real struggle to acquire or maintain market share by existing or fully returning players, notably Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“Venezuela is facing severe budgetary constraints verging on an economic calamity, a problem that can be ameliorated by extra income from additional oil sales, especially outside its OPEC quota.”
While noting that the US had recently removed a decade-long prohibition on export of crude oil, Duruigbo said, “Any opening created by Nigeria’s inability to meet its supply commitments is an invitation to these countries to exploit the gap and leverage their strengths. I would be deeply concerned if I were manning Nigeria’s economic ship at the moment.”
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, had on May 16 put the drop in the nation’s oil output at 800,000 barrels per day following attacks and disruption of production in the Niger Delta.
With more disruptions seen since then, the nation’s output is said to have plunged by about 1.1 million bpd.
The Head of Energy Research, Ecobank Capital, Mr. Dolapo Oni, said, “Since that supply is no longer available for the market, it will give room for other producers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia to ramp up production and fill the gap. And that is what I expect to happen.
“There is a risk that Nigeria may lose its market share to those countries. But countries such as India like Nigerian crude,” he said, adding that other buyers in Asia such as Malaysia and Singapore might turn to other producers for their imports.
Iran is fulfilling its pledge to raise oil production and exports almost six months after western sanctions on the nation were lifted, surprising many analysts and commentators, the Financial Times reported last week.
Oilfields in the country pumped almost 3.6 million bpd in April, a level last reached in November 2011 before sanctions over its nuclear programme were tightened, said the International Energy Agency. Crude exports surged to two million bpd last month, just 200,000 bpd below late 2011 levels.
Iran was said to have shipped more crude oil to India, China and other countries it was permitted to sell to under sanctions. It has also re-established relationships with European buyers and secured new sales agreements with big international oil traders such as Vitol and Glencore, as well as energy majors such as Repsol of Spain.
Meanwhile, imports of Nigeria’s Liquefied Natural Gas by Japan fell by 22.3 per cent from a year earlier to 143,347 metric tonnes in April, according to Platts.
Japan’s LNG imports reached 6.4 million metric tonnes in April, down 3.3 per cent from a year ago, led by lower supply from Qatar and Nigeria, data released on Friday by the Ministry of Finance showed.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has revealed the detection of more than 4,800 unauthorized connections on oil pipelines within the country, painting a troubling image of the nation’s primary source of revenue.
Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, communicated this information to the Senate Committee on Appropriations last Friday.
He said, “We have over 4,800 illegal connections on our pipelines. That means in some lines, within 100 kilometres of pipelines, you have as much as 300 insertions.
“Therefore, even when you produce the oil, you cannot deliver them at the required pressure and therefore the volume will also be less.”
As per the NNPC Ltd chief, individuals from various regions enter the Niger Delta, inserting unauthorized connections on pipelines in Nigeria’s oil-producing area.
This recent revelation follows a prior discovery of 295 illegal connections to the pipelines by the firm a year ago, underscoring the escalating issue of crude oil theft in Nigeria.
Two years earlier, Kyari had highlighted the country’s daily loss of 200,000 barrels of oil, amounting to $13 million due to theft and vandalism.
He further stated “We have two sets of losses, one coming from our products and the other coming from crude oil. In terms of crude losses, it is still going on. On the average, we are losing 200,000 barrels of crude every day.”
After the discovery, Nigeria’s security forces pledged to enhance security around the country’s pipelines.
To bolster this, the Federal Government granted a multi-billion naira pipelines surveillance contract to Tantita Security Services, headed by former militant leader Government Ekpemepulo, also known as Tompolo.
Despite facing criticism for this decision, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum, remains convinced that it was the appropriate course of action.
In August, following a tour of oil facilities in the Niger Delta, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri expressed gratitude to Tantita, commissioned by NNPC Ltd, for their ongoing work.
He also hinted at plans for further extensive endeavors in the future.
In 2021, after extensive debate and delays, the Petroleum Industry Bill was finally passed to attract increased foreign investment into the oil sector through amendments to regulations, royalties, and taxes.
Nigeria’s colossal $19 billion Dangote Refinery, after encountering several setbacks, is on the verge of kickstarting fuel production.
This achievement is heralded by the arrival of the first crude shipment, transported by the OTIS tanker carrying 950,000 barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude.
S&P Global, citing industry sources and tanker tracking data on spglobal.com, reported the tanker’s departure on December 6, en route to Lekki, the nearest land port to Dangote’s offshore crude receiving terminal.
Scheduled to reach its destination around 8 PM on December 7, the arrival of this shipment signifies the commencement of crude supplies for the refinery’s operations.
Chartered by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), the Suezmax tanker is an emblem of the initial crude supply to Dangote’s cutting-edge refinery, as disclosed by a West African oil trader familiar with the matter in the S&P report.
Even though the refinery was officially completed in May, the absence of domestic crude feedstock had hindered oil product manufacturing.
To address this, the NNPC, holding a 20% stake in the refinery, struck an agreement to provide 6 million barrels of crude oil as feedstock to the Dangote refinery in December.
This move aims to jumpstart operations and overcome the previous impediments.
Agbami, operated by Chevron, holds a prominent position among Nigeria’s major deepwater developments, producing around 100,000 barrels per day in the central Niger Delta.
Known for its light sweet crude qualities, with a specific gravity of 47.9 API and a low sulfur content of 0.04%, Agbami produces substantial amounts of naphtha and kerosene.
NNPC has chartered additional shipments from different Nigerian offshore fields to the refinery, marking the start of a sequence of planned crude supplies for the month, as mentioned by the oil trader.
Located on the outskirts of Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, the Dangote Refinery encountered repeated delays since its 2013 announcement, despite significant installation progress in 2019.
The refinery, designed to handle multiple crudes simultaneously, targets three Nigerian crude grades—Escravos, Bonny Light, and Forcados. When operating at full capacity, it aims to produce 327,000 barrels per day (b/d) of gasoline, 244,000 b/d of gasoil/diesel, 56,000 b/d of jet fuel/kerosene, and 290,000 metric tons per year of propane/LPG.
Dangote’s operations starting signify Nigeria’s hopes to lessen its reliance on gasoline imports, addressing the deficiencies of its existing refineries undergoing repairs. This shift is poised to reshape Nigeria’s oil industry, potentially leading to gasoline self-sufficiency by the 2040s.
Dangote officials anticipate an initial output of 370,000 barrels per day (b/d), emphasizing jet fuel and diesel production.
Industry analysts, however, project the refinery to reach its full operational capacity by mid-2025, although potential delays remain a looming concern.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has announced intentions to cease importing refined petroleum products by December 2024, anticipating full operational functionality for all national refineries by that time.
Group CEO, NNPC Ltd, Mele Kyari, shared this at a meeting with Speaker Tajudeen Abbas of the House of Representatives, who advocated for the privatisation of Nigeria’s refineries on Thursday.
Projections indicated the national oil firm’s revenue could climb to N4.5 trillion by the conclusion of 2023. Moreover, the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refining Company, managed by NNPCL, was slated for completion by December of the current year.
Meanwhile, Oil marketers verified on Thursday that the Port Harcourt refinery is set for operations, potentially starting in January 2024. They emphasized that once operational, this refinery could notably reduce the prices of refined petroleum products.
During the meeting in Abuja, Kyari asserted Nigeria’s intention to cease importing refined petroleum products by 2024, envisioning the country’s emergence as a net exporter of these commodities within the same year.
He outlined the plans for launching operations at the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.
Kyari reiterated that all refineries would operate at full capacity, ultimately paving the way for Nigeria to transition into a net exporter of petroleum products by the conclusion of 2024.
He attributed the inactivity of Nigeria’s refineries over the years to the petroleum subsidy, emphasizing that the removal of this subsidy was drawing significant private-sector investments into the sector.
Kyari said “I can confirm to you that by the end of December this year, we will start the Port Harcourt refinery; early in the first quarter of 2024, we will start the Warri refinery and by the end of 2024, Kaduna refinery will come into operation.
“This is the commitment we are giving today and you can hold us accountable for this. In 2024, many of the initiatives including the rehabilitation of our refineries and also the efforts of small-scale refineries, and the upcoming Dangote refinery, will make Nigeria a net exporter of petroleum products in 2024.
“We will no longer be talking about fuel importation by the end of 2024. I am very optimistic that this will crystallise.
Kyari promised that by the conclusion of 2023, the government’s anticipated revenue from the company would reach N4.5 trillion, emphasizing NNPCL’s adherence to the Petroleum Industry Act and its commitment to delivering value to shareholders.
Recall that in October 2023, it was reported that Nigeria’s monthly spending on the importation of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol, had reached approximately N843 billion due to NNPCL’s cessation of oil swaps.
In July of this year, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported that during the post-deregulation period, spanning June 1 to June 28, 2023, the country’s total petrol consumption amounted to 1.36 billion litres, with an average daily consumption of 48.43 million litres.
The average ex-depot price of petrol, sourced solely from NNPCL as the importer, stands at about N580 per litre.
However, both NNPCL and oil marketers declared on Thursday that this substantial oil import expenditure would soon diminish.
They anticipated a drop once the Port Harcourt refinery commences production of refined petroleum products from January 2024, barring any unforeseen circumstances.
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