Business
Nigeria set to be Africa’s largest economy
JOHANNESBURG – South Africa could soon lose its status as Africa’s biggest economy to Nigeria, but in the race to be the continental powerhouse, being biggest may not be everything.
Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, will complete a rebasing of its gross domestic product (GDP) by next month, its statistics office says, which economists estimate could expand the size of its economy by between 20 and 60 percent.
This exercise, which has missed a string of previous deadlines, looks set to transform Nigeria into the continent’s most important economy measured in terms of GDP size.
With a current economic output of around $290 billion, the West African country – whose population is more than three times the size of South Africa’s 51 million – already boasts faster growth.
While it has expanded by an average of seven percent annually over the past decade, South Africa has averaged three percent growth, held back by rigid employment laws and recurring labour unrest.
But even if it slips from the top spot, South Africa can still claim the crown of being the more diversified and sophisticated economy. Its financial markets are among the world’s most advanced and while its $350 billion economy is smaller than Mexico and Indonesia, its stock market is larger.
For Nigeria, the aim of the rebasing exercise is to change the base year for calculating output to 2008 from 1990 to reflect sectors of the economy that have since grown in importance, such as telecoms and IT.
However, it is still heavily reliant on oil exports, accounting for some 80 percent of government revenue, and an enlarged GDP will do little to immediately improve life for nearly 100 million of its citizens who live on less than $1 a day.
While agriculture and power sector reforms would improve Nigeria’s fortunes, turbulent politics and a resilient and bloody Boko Haram insurgency in its north take some of the shine off its positive growth story.
Whenever it happens, Nigeria overtaking South Africa as Africa’s economic top dog is “kind of everything and nothing,” said David Cowan, Citigroup’s Africa economist.
“It is everything because you are then the largest economy in Africa so there’s a lot of kudos attached to that. But the reality remains that, on the ground, for every Nigerian there’s no difference … South Africa can still call itself the most sophisticated economy in Africa.”
South Africa’s expected retreat in the GDP ranking will nevertheless be a big psychological adjustment for a country that has often taken its lead position for granted.
It may also have geopolitical implications, raising questions about whether South Africa should be the sole African representative in the G20 and the Brics group of the most powerful emerging economies, alongside Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Nigeria has been included in the freshly coined Mint group of emerging economic giants, along with Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.
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Michael Power, investment strategist at Investec Asset Management, likens South Africa’s situation to that of the United States, whose economic power is expected to be superseded by faster-growing and more populous China eventually.
“Just as the United States is contemplating the prospect of what it’s going to be like to be number two in the world, South Africa (will) have to contemplate what it’s going to be like to be number two in Africa,” he said.
The rise of Nigeria has taken many South Africans by surprise, said Kevin Lings, chief economist at Stanlib, as the country, burdened with an image of corruption and violence, is often portrayed negatively in the media.
“Every time I’ve raised this discussion in the last year, that it looks inevitable that Nigeria will become Africa’s biggest (economy), most audiences are shocked,” he said.
“People have had a certain mindset about the role of South Africa. They haven’t updated that in terms of more recent developments.”
The GDP rebasing is likely to enhance Nigeria’s appeal to investors looking for high growth and alternative markets, while South Africa, with its anaemic economy and faltering currency may appear less compelling, analysts say.
“South Africa’s good infrastructure and sophisticated services industries provide a much easier business environment for investors than Nigeria, but relatively low growth rates, market size and saturation are areas of concern that may turn investment to Nigeria,” said Dianna Games, chief executive of business advisory Africa @ Work.
Still, Simon Freemantle, a senior analyst at Standard Bank, believes multinationals looking for a base from which to expand into the continent will continue to choose South Africa given its effective financial and legal systems.
For investors who may need to seek redress when things go wrong, its enduring, more independent and transparent institutions are a plus.
Decades from now, the gap in size between the two economies will be even wider. By 2050, Nigeria’s GDP will be just under $6 trillion in today’s money as its population heads towards 400 million, predicts Charles Robertson of Renaissance Capital.
South Africa, by contrast, would have 57 million people and a $1.5 trillion economy.
Yet that would give Nigeria a per capita GDP of about $15,000, to South Africa’s $27,000, underscoring the huge development challenges faced by the former.
“Even with the very good trajectory that we see for Nigeria it’s going to take a long time for 170 million people to benefit from this,” said Robertson. “It’s the same in China. You’ve still got hundreds of millions earning virtually nothing and that’s after an extraordinary 30 years.”
– EYE WITNESS NEWS
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has declared 31 companies as winners of 37 oil and gas blocks under the 2025 Licensing Round.
This followed the successful conclusion of the commercial bid conference on Tuesday in Abuja, despite what the commission described as sustained threats and pressure mounted against members of its evaluation team before the conclusion of the exercise.
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The conference marked the end of an eight-month licensing process, with the winning firms now required to pay their signature bonuses and satisfy other post-award conditions within 90 days or risk forfeiting the assets to reserve bidders.
After the commercial bid conference in Abuja, the Commission Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed that officials involved in evaluating the bids faced repeated intimidation throughout the process but refused to compromise the integrity of the exercise.
She said the threats persisted until the eve of the commercial bid opening. Eyesan said, “It has been a journey… If you have been told anything contrary to the fact that this process was going to be credible and transparent, do not believe it.”
Commending members of the evaluation committee, she added, “The evaluators have worked tirelessly since June 12. They have been inundated with calls and with threats, serious threats, but they stood their ground. Up until yesterday, we were still threatened, but we stood our ground to say that the times have changed. Nigeria is really open for business.”
She said President Bola Tinubu had mandated the commission to ensure a credible process and thanked the evaluators and observers from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) for supporting the exercise.
The commission announced that 31 companies emerged successful after 143 companies submitted about 200 bids for 37 oil and gas blocks out of the 50 assets offered during the licensing round.
The successful companies include SSonic Petroleum Limited, CFP Pipeline and Flowlines, Dutchford E&P Limited, Attabanson Global Company Limited, Rosem Energy Limited, Pivot-GIS Limited, Network E&P, Asharami, LexOil, BVOF, Gupsco Energy Limited, Saratoga, Volante, Concept-Reel Petroleum Services Limited, Clinton Oil Field, Nuway Oaklane Limited, Ramec Italia.
Others are Blueridge E&P, Up Energies Limited, AYM Shafa, Blackrock Holdings Limited, Funtay Integrated Business Limited, Riparian Development and Production Limited, Nikstallis, Stardeep Petroleum, Dakoda & U Limited, Southborne Oil and Gas Limited, Lanaka Petroleum, Highban Resources Limited and Eyre Energy Limited.
The commission explained that the successful companies had emerged only as preferred bidders and would receive Petroleum Prospecting Licences (PPL) after meeting all statutory conditions under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
Eyesan urged the winners to immediately commence the post-award process. She said, “These firms will only be presented final awards after the payment of the appropriate signature bonus and the approval of the Minister of Petroleum Resources in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021.”
She warned that failure to fulfil the post-award conditions within 90 days would invalidate the awards, allowing the commission to invite reserve bidders.
The commission explained that the commercial bid process was designed to eliminate human interference through an automated weighted scoring system. Officials said technical evaluations had been completed before the commercial bids were opened publicly, while no one, including members of the evaluation team, had prior access to the commercial bids.
“The weighted score is 40 per cent. All these things are automated. The computer calculates everything. Nobody is using a pen to write any figures. This demonstrates the transparent, efficient and robust process built into this licensing round,” the commission stated.
The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), in partnership with Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, has launched a specialised 12-month capacity development programme to prepare 300 young Nigerian graduates for careers in the nation’s oil and gas industry
The NCDMB–Renaissance Oil and Gas Field Readiness Training Programme will provide participants with industry-relevant expertise in mechanical, electrical and instrumentation engineering, combining three months of intensive classroom instruction with nine months of structured on-the-job training at partner oil and gas service companies.
The programme has enrolled 300 beneficiaries, comprising 240 trainees in Lagos and 60 in Port Harcourt.
During the inauguration of the programme, the Executive Secretary of NCDMB, Engr Felix Omatsola Ogbe, said the initiative underscores the Board’s commitment to developing indigenous technical capacity, increasing Nigerian participation in the petroleum industry and supporting the country’s economic growth.
Represented by the Board’s Assistant Manager, Human Capacity Development, Tari Bufazi, Ogbe said the training would equip participants with practical experience and internationally recognised certifications needed to compete in the global energy industry.
“This is more than the commencement of a training programme. It is the beginning of a journey for young Nigerians who will acquire world-class skills in mechanical, instrumentation and electrical disciplines,” he said.
According to him, specialised competencies in automation, instrumentation and engineering operations have become increasingly critical as Nigeria prepares for a new wave of investments in the oil and gas sector.
“Instrumentation, electrical and mechanical engineering are foundational to the survival, profitability and safety of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. This training is designed to close existing gaps and prepare participants for industry demands,” he added.
Ogbe urged the beneficiaries to seize the opportunity to develop themselves into innovators, problem-solvers and future leaders capable of driving the industry’s growth.
In the same vein, the General Manager, Nigerian Content Development at Renaissance Africa Energy Company Limited, Olarenwaju Lanre Olawuyi, reaffirmed the company’s commitment to building indigenous capabilities through sustained investments in human capital.
Represented by Funso Alabi, Olawuyi said the programme was deliberately structured to expose participants to both classroom learning and practical field experience across mechanical systems, electrical operations, instrumentation and control, software development, networking and cybersecurity.
He noted that the practical component would bridge the gap between academic knowledge and workplace expectations, enabling participants to acquire competencies increasingly sought after by employers.
“At Renaissance, we believe local content development must create real capability, strengthen indigenous expertise and empower Nigerians to lead,” he said.
He also reminded the trainees that technical competence alone would not guarantee success, stressing that professionalism, integrity, teamwork and a strong safety culture remain essential qualities in the oil and gas industry.
The Chief Executive Officer of Radial Circle, the programme’s lead training provider, Ranti Omole, disclosed that the beneficiaries emerged from a highly competitive selection process involving thousands of applicants drawn from the NCDMB database.
He said the objective of the initiative extends beyond issuing certificates, noting that the programme is designed to produce industry-ready professionals capable of making immediate contributions in operational environments.
“We are building competence and skills. By the time you complete this programme, you should be field-ready and able to fit seamlessly into industry operations,” Omole said.
He encouraged participants to remain disciplined, embrace continuous learning and leverage the opportunity to collaborate with colleagues from different parts of the country.
The operational successes of the Nigerian Navy’s sustained offensive against oil theft, illegal refining, pipeline vandalism, and militancy in the second quarter of 2026 have aided Nigeria’s crude oil production to reach 1,735 million barrels per day in June.
Recall that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) announced that the 1.735 million barrels per day represented 104 per cent of Nigeria’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota.
However, the Director of Naval Information, Capt. Abiodun Folorunsho, in a statement over the weekend, in Abuja, noted that the feat was the highest crude oil output recorded since April 2020.
According to Folorunsho, the offensive against crude oil theft, illegal refining, pipeline vandalism, militancy, and other forms of economic sabotage in the Niger Delta under Operation DELTA SENTINEL was intensified to consolidate first-quarter gains.
“Since April 2026, the Nigerian Navy has conducted over 580 intelligence-driven operations across Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River, and Lagos State.
“These operations have resulted in the recovery of over 4.7 million litres of stolen crude oil and illegally refined petroleum products, as well as the arrest of over 91 suspects involved in crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, militancy and related crimes.
“It also led to the dismantling of over 48 illegal refining sites, interception of multiple vessels engaged in crude oil theft, and the destruction of criminal logistics networks supporting economic sabotage.”
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Folorunsho said that one of the major operational successes recorded was the arrest of the motor tankers – MKPODU, WESTAF, and STELIOS K, which were linked to the theft of more than 900 metric tonnes of suspected stolen crude oil.
He said it resulted in the recovery of over 708,000 litres of illegally refined products and 310,000 litres of stolen crude oil from a single illegal refining site in Ndoni, Rivers.
“It also facilitated numerous intelligence-led operations that dismantled reactivated refining sites, intercepted illicit fuel consignments and prevented criminal syndicates from restoring illegal production capacity across the Niger Delta,” he said.
According to him, coordinated riverine operations led to the deactivation of scores of illegal refining sites, reservoirs, dugout pits, storage facilities, warehouses, concealed fuel caches, pipeline connections and militant hideouts.
The director of naval information also said that the operations exposed a growing trend of criminal syndicates attempting to reactivate previously dismantled refining camps, prompting sustained follow-up operations.
He said the follow-ups prevented the regeneration of illegal refining ecosystems and progressively disrupted the economic viability of crude oil theft networks.
“The Nigerian Navy notes that these sustained operational gains coincide with the recent announcement by the NUPRC of increased crude oil production, exceeding the OPEC production quota.
“This indicates improved security around critical oil and gas infrastructure and the collective efforts of security agencies in fighting crude oil theft.
“Persistent naval presence across the Niger Delta waterways has denied economic saboteurs the freedom of action, disrupted illicit petroleum supply chains, and enhanced the integrity of critical oil and gas infrastructure,” he said.
The naval spokesperson reaffirmed the Navy’s commitment to safeguarding Nigeria’s maritime domain, protecting vital national assets, and enhancing oil production to support the Federal Government’s goal of reaching 2.5 million barrels per day by 2027.
He added that the service would continue to conduct intelligence-led operations and strengthen inter-agency cooperation to further degrade oil theft networks within the Nigerian maritime environment in line with the vision of the Chief of the Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Idi Abbas.
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