Business
Nigeria set to be Africa’s largest economy
JOHANNESBURG – South Africa could soon lose its status as Africa’s biggest economy to Nigeria, but in the race to be the continental powerhouse, being biggest may not be everything.
Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, will complete a rebasing of its gross domestic product (GDP) by next month, its statistics office says, which economists estimate could expand the size of its economy by between 20 and 60 percent.
This exercise, which has missed a string of previous deadlines, looks set to transform Nigeria into the continent’s most important economy measured in terms of GDP size.
With a current economic output of around $290 billion, the West African country – whose population is more than three times the size of South Africa’s 51 million – already boasts faster growth.
While it has expanded by an average of seven percent annually over the past decade, South Africa has averaged three percent growth, held back by rigid employment laws and recurring labour unrest.
But even if it slips from the top spot, South Africa can still claim the crown of being the more diversified and sophisticated economy. Its financial markets are among the world’s most advanced and while its $350 billion economy is smaller than Mexico and Indonesia, its stock market is larger.
For Nigeria, the aim of the rebasing exercise is to change the base year for calculating output to 2008 from 1990 to reflect sectors of the economy that have since grown in importance, such as telecoms and IT.
However, it is still heavily reliant on oil exports, accounting for some 80 percent of government revenue, and an enlarged GDP will do little to immediately improve life for nearly 100 million of its citizens who live on less than $1 a day.
While agriculture and power sector reforms would improve Nigeria’s fortunes, turbulent politics and a resilient and bloody Boko Haram insurgency in its north take some of the shine off its positive growth story.
Whenever it happens, Nigeria overtaking South Africa as Africa’s economic top dog is “kind of everything and nothing,” said David Cowan, Citigroup’s Africa economist.
“It is everything because you are then the largest economy in Africa so there’s a lot of kudos attached to that. But the reality remains that, on the ground, for every Nigerian there’s no difference … South Africa can still call itself the most sophisticated economy in Africa.”
South Africa’s expected retreat in the GDP ranking will nevertheless be a big psychological adjustment for a country that has often taken its lead position for granted.
It may also have geopolitical implications, raising questions about whether South Africa should be the sole African representative in the G20 and the Brics group of the most powerful emerging economies, alongside Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Nigeria has been included in the freshly coined Mint group of emerging economic giants, along with Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.
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Michael Power, investment strategist at Investec Asset Management, likens South Africa’s situation to that of the United States, whose economic power is expected to be superseded by faster-growing and more populous China eventually.
“Just as the United States is contemplating the prospect of what it’s going to be like to be number two in the world, South Africa (will) have to contemplate what it’s going to be like to be number two in Africa,” he said.
The rise of Nigeria has taken many South Africans by surprise, said Kevin Lings, chief economist at Stanlib, as the country, burdened with an image of corruption and violence, is often portrayed negatively in the media.
“Every time I’ve raised this discussion in the last year, that it looks inevitable that Nigeria will become Africa’s biggest (economy), most audiences are shocked,” he said.
“People have had a certain mindset about the role of South Africa. They haven’t updated that in terms of more recent developments.”
The GDP rebasing is likely to enhance Nigeria’s appeal to investors looking for high growth and alternative markets, while South Africa, with its anaemic economy and faltering currency may appear less compelling, analysts say.
“South Africa’s good infrastructure and sophisticated services industries provide a much easier business environment for investors than Nigeria, but relatively low growth rates, market size and saturation are areas of concern that may turn investment to Nigeria,” said Dianna Games, chief executive of business advisory Africa @ Work.
Still, Simon Freemantle, a senior analyst at Standard Bank, believes multinationals looking for a base from which to expand into the continent will continue to choose South Africa given its effective financial and legal systems.
For investors who may need to seek redress when things go wrong, its enduring, more independent and transparent institutions are a plus.
Decades from now, the gap in size between the two economies will be even wider. By 2050, Nigeria’s GDP will be just under $6 trillion in today’s money as its population heads towards 400 million, predicts Charles Robertson of Renaissance Capital.
South Africa, by contrast, would have 57 million people and a $1.5 trillion economy.
Yet that would give Nigeria a per capita GDP of about $15,000, to South Africa’s $27,000, underscoring the huge development challenges faced by the former.
“Even with the very good trajectory that we see for Nigeria it’s going to take a long time for 170 million people to benefit from this,” said Robertson. “It’s the same in China. You’ve still got hundreds of millions earning virtually nothing and that’s after an extraordinary 30 years.”
– EYE WITNESS NEWS
Shareholders of Nigerian Exchange Group Plc (NGX Group) have commended the Board and Management for the Group’s performance and strategic direction, urging continued focus on growth and long-term value creation.
At the Group’s 65th Annual General Meeting (AGM), shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, alongside key resolutions including a final dividend of ₦2.00 per share, a one-for-three bonus share issue, and the corresponding increase in share capital. The re-election of Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Board of Directors, Dr. Okechukwu Itanyi, Independent Non-Executive Director and Mrs. Ojinika Olaghere, Independent Non-Executive Director reinforced continuity in governance and oversight.
They acknowledged the Group’s disciplined execution and its role in strengthening the Nigerian capital market, noting that recent developments reflect a more structured and better-regulated market environment.
Speaking during the meeting, the President, New Dimension Shareholders Association, Patrick Ajudua, commended the leadership of the Group for delivering a strong financial outcome, noting that the results reflect both improved market conditions and deliberate strategic execution. “The numbers speak to a business that is gaining strength and direction,” he said.
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Similarly, the Chairman of the Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Boniface Okezie, lauded the Group’s commitment to innovation and infrastructure development. “The market is becoming more forward-looking, supported by strong leadership at the Group level. Initiatives around market infrastructure and participation are yielding results, and this is positive for investors,” he noted.
Commenting during the AGM, Chairman of NGX Group, Umaru Kwairanga, appreciated shareholders for their continued support and reaffirmed the Board’s commitment to sustainable value delivery. He said, “The progress recorded reflects the strength of the Group’s strategy and the performance of its operating businesses. As a Board, our responsibility is to ensure disciplined oversight, uphold strong governance standards, and position NGX Group to deliver sustainable, long-term value to shareholders.”
Temi Popoola, group managing director/chief executive officer, focused on execution priorities, noting that the Group is positioning for scale. He said, “This next phase is about deepening momentum. Our priority is to scale infrastructure, broaden participation, and unlock new pathways for capital formation.”
The meeting reflected strong shareholder confidence in NGX Group’s leadership, with the Group reaffirming its commitment to playing a central role in the evolution of Nigeria’s capital market while delivering sustained returns to investors.
Sierra Leone has announced the signing of a petroleum licence agreement with Nigeria‑based Marginal Energy Limited, granting the company offshore exploration and production rights as the government seeks to revive interest in its under‑explored upstream sector.
The licence, signed through the Petroleum Directorate of Sierra Leone (PDSL), covers offshore blocks G‑145, G‑146, G‑147, G‑160 and G‑161, spanning about 6,800 square kilometres, according to a government statement, a Reuters report said.
Marginal Energy, a Nigerian independent, has committed to a seismic and drilling programme with exploration spending expected to exceed $225 million.
Under the agreement, the state will hold a 10 percent carried interest in oil projects and 5 percent in gas during exploration and development, with an option to acquire an additional participating interest on a paid basis of up to 9 percent once production begins.
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The deal was signed at the Invest in African Energy conference in Paris, where Sierra Leone has been promoting offshore licensing opportunities to international investors, the report added.
NASCON Allied Industries Plc has rewarded its shareholders with a historic 200 per cent increase in dividend payout, underscoring a remarkable financial performance that saw profit after tax surge by over 100 per cent to N33.5 billion in the 2025 financial year, despite a challenging operating environment.
The strong performance was unveiled at the Company’s 2025 Annual General Meeting (AGM) held in Lagos, where shareholders applauded the resilience, focus and strategic discipline of NASCON’s management and Board.
Reflecting the robust results, the Board of Directors approved a dividend of N6 per share—the highest since the Company was listed on the Nigerian Exchange, signalling NASCON’s confidence in its financial strength and long-term growth prospects.
Earnings per share (EPS) rose sharply by 115 per cent, from 577 kobo in the previous year to 1,241 kobo. Describing the outcome as the best financial performance in NASCON’s history, the Chairman, Mr. Olakunle Alake, attributed the results to improved operational efficiency, strict cost management and the dedication of the Company’s workforce.
“The operating environment in 2025 was characterised by economic volatility, persistent inflation and structural changes across key sectors,” Alake said. “Yet, NASCON remained resilient and strategically focused, delivering outstanding value to shareholders.”
He noted that operational sustainability remains a core pillar of the Company’s strategy. During the year, NASCON introduced Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) trucks into its logistics fleet to reduce fuel costs and minimise exposure to diesel price volatility. In addition, the Company’s state-of-the-art salt refinery, its largest production facility, now runs entirely on natural gas, significantly boosting efficiency while reinforcing NASCON’s commitment to environmental sustainability.
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The Managing Director, Mrs. Aderemi Saka, highlighted key milestones recorded during the year, including a 27 per cent growth in revenue and exceptional returns to shareholders through dividends. She attributed the achievements to a clear strategic vision, disciplined execution and sustained focus on cost-saving initiatives across production, logistics and fleet management.
Looking ahead to 2026, Saka reaffirmed management’s determination to build on the current momentum. She outlined strategic priorities for the coming year, including deeper cost optimisation, expanded market penetration, strengthened energy diversification and sustainability initiatives, as well as accelerated digital transformation and process automation.
In her remarks, Director Mrs. Tonya Lawani emphasised that the Company remains firmly committed to the principles that have driven its excellent performance, noting that NASCON approaches the new financial year from a position of strength, with further opportunities for growth and improvement.
Speaking on behalf of shareholders, Dr. Faruk Umar expressed strong confidence in the Company’s trajectory, citing NASCON’s rising share price, which recently crossed the N100 mark, and projecting further appreciation. He commended the quality of the Board and management team, noting that strong leadership and recent executive appointments have positioned the Company to deliver even greater value to all stakeholders.
With its record-breaking profit, unprecedented dividend payout and forward-looking strategy, NASCON Allied Industries Plc continues to consolidate its position as a leading force in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector while delighting shareholders with sustained value creation.
Photo Caption:
From Left: Company Secretary, NASCON Allied Industries Plc, Oluseun Oluwole; Chairman, NASCON Allied Industries Plc, Olakunle Alake; Managing Director, NASCON Allied Industries Plc, Aderemi Saka; Non-Executive Director, NASCON Allied Industries Plc, Fatima Aliko Dangote; Independent Director, NASCON Allied Industries Plc, Tonya Lawani, at the NASCON Allied Industries Plc 2025 Annual General Meeting held in Lagos on Monday, April 27, 2026
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