Business
Nigeria set to be Africa’s largest economy
JOHANNESBURG – South Africa could soon lose its status as Africa’s biggest economy to Nigeria, but in the race to be the continental powerhouse, being biggest may not be everything.
Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, will complete a rebasing of its gross domestic product (GDP) by next month, its statistics office says, which economists estimate could expand the size of its economy by between 20 and 60 percent.
This exercise, which has missed a string of previous deadlines, looks set to transform Nigeria into the continent’s most important economy measured in terms of GDP size.
With a current economic output of around $290 billion, the West African country – whose population is more than three times the size of South Africa’s 51 million – already boasts faster growth.
While it has expanded by an average of seven percent annually over the past decade, South Africa has averaged three percent growth, held back by rigid employment laws and recurring labour unrest.
But even if it slips from the top spot, South Africa can still claim the crown of being the more diversified and sophisticated economy. Its financial markets are among the world’s most advanced and while its $350 billion economy is smaller than Mexico and Indonesia, its stock market is larger.
For Nigeria, the aim of the rebasing exercise is to change the base year for calculating output to 2008 from 1990 to reflect sectors of the economy that have since grown in importance, such as telecoms and IT.
However, it is still heavily reliant on oil exports, accounting for some 80 percent of government revenue, and an enlarged GDP will do little to immediately improve life for nearly 100 million of its citizens who live on less than $1 a day.
While agriculture and power sector reforms would improve Nigeria’s fortunes, turbulent politics and a resilient and bloody Boko Haram insurgency in its north take some of the shine off its positive growth story.
Whenever it happens, Nigeria overtaking South Africa as Africa’s economic top dog is “kind of everything and nothing,” said David Cowan, Citigroup’s Africa economist.
“It is everything because you are then the largest economy in Africa so there’s a lot of kudos attached to that. But the reality remains that, on the ground, for every Nigerian there’s no difference … South Africa can still call itself the most sophisticated economy in Africa.”
South Africa’s expected retreat in the GDP ranking will nevertheless be a big psychological adjustment for a country that has often taken its lead position for granted.
It may also have geopolitical implications, raising questions about whether South Africa should be the sole African representative in the G20 and the Brics group of the most powerful emerging economies, alongside Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Nigeria has been included in the freshly coined Mint group of emerging economic giants, along with Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.
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Michael Power, investment strategist at Investec Asset Management, likens South Africa’s situation to that of the United States, whose economic power is expected to be superseded by faster-growing and more populous China eventually.
“Just as the United States is contemplating the prospect of what it’s going to be like to be number two in the world, South Africa (will) have to contemplate what it’s going to be like to be number two in Africa,” he said.
The rise of Nigeria has taken many South Africans by surprise, said Kevin Lings, chief economist at Stanlib, as the country, burdened with an image of corruption and violence, is often portrayed negatively in the media.
“Every time I’ve raised this discussion in the last year, that it looks inevitable that Nigeria will become Africa’s biggest (economy), most audiences are shocked,” he said.
“People have had a certain mindset about the role of South Africa. They haven’t updated that in terms of more recent developments.”
The GDP rebasing is likely to enhance Nigeria’s appeal to investors looking for high growth and alternative markets, while South Africa, with its anaemic economy and faltering currency may appear less compelling, analysts say.
“South Africa’s good infrastructure and sophisticated services industries provide a much easier business environment for investors than Nigeria, but relatively low growth rates, market size and saturation are areas of concern that may turn investment to Nigeria,” said Dianna Games, chief executive of business advisory Africa @ Work.
Still, Simon Freemantle, a senior analyst at Standard Bank, believes multinationals looking for a base from which to expand into the continent will continue to choose South Africa given its effective financial and legal systems.
For investors who may need to seek redress when things go wrong, its enduring, more independent and transparent institutions are a plus.
Decades from now, the gap in size between the two economies will be even wider. By 2050, Nigeria’s GDP will be just under $6 trillion in today’s money as its population heads towards 400 million, predicts Charles Robertson of Renaissance Capital.
South Africa, by contrast, would have 57 million people and a $1.5 trillion economy.
Yet that would give Nigeria a per capita GDP of about $15,000, to South Africa’s $27,000, underscoring the huge development challenges faced by the former.
“Even with the very good trajectory that we see for Nigeria it’s going to take a long time for 170 million people to benefit from this,” said Robertson. “It’s the same in China. You’ve still got hundreds of millions earning virtually nothing and that’s after an extraordinary 30 years.”
– EYE WITNESS NEWS
Business
Gas Infrastructure Fund Sets Terms for Indigenous Access to Funding
Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (MDGIF) has said that indigenous companies seeking to partner with it and access its equity must show secured gas supply and a confirmed buyer, because no gas project is bankable without both.
The Fund was established under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), and designed as the “master key” for unlocking gas processing, infrastructure and bankability.
Deputy Director at MDGIF in the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Engr Elvis Duruji made this known at the OTL Africa Downstream Energy Week in Lagos. He spoke at a session on: “Scaling Energy Options: Unlocking Gas and Renewables through Processing and Infrastructure.”
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Expatiating further, Duruji said the two conditions decide whether the fund takes an equity stake in a project, since they determine its returns and viability, insisting that the security of the gas feedstock is very important. He further noted that project operators must locate their sites at a gas processing plant or close to a CNG mother station.
The Fund, he added, has used N671 billion to catalyse N1.6 trillion from private Nigerians.
“The Fund has partnered on 31 projects covering 205 infrastructure assets at different stages of execution. Of these, 127 are at different levels of project management, and 10 have been commissioned.
Duruji cited Topline Limited’s mini-LNG plant in Delta State as a success story. “For three years, a Nigerian company, Topline, was looking for a credit facility from InfraCredit, and no one was able to loan them money because they are Nigerian,” he said. “They came to the fund and we partnered with them.”
He said Topline is now the first indigenous mini-LNG operator in Nigeria, with commissioning due before December.
He also cited a programme to convert 20 university campuses to CNG through daughter stations.
“Three CNG stations are operational and 14 more are to be commissioned before December. Duruji added that the fund is working with fuel-station partners, including Ibile Oil and Gas Corporation, which is delivering 15 CNG stations across Lagos.
“These are our success stories,” he said.
He said, for CNG projects, proximity to the gas processing plant “is very important. You must have security of gas supply. We also ensure that you have a gas supply agreement with producers. What is the volume and price that the producer is willing to give to our would-be equity partner? This always affects their credit returns and internal rate of return. This is what will determine the project viability, and this is key,” he said.
Duruji also noted that offtake is equally critical adding that. “We need to know the offtakers and the regasification facility. The same thing for CNG, you need to get a compressor,” he said.
According to him, the MDGIF intervenes in gas projects where commercial lenders will not, because “most Nigerian companies are in trading and operating marginally at the downstream level because the sector is highly capital intensive,” adding that no Nigerian bank would give single-digit loans for exploration and production.
“Nigerian Banks lends at as much as 30 per cent interest, whereas, foreign firms coming into Nigeria to explore, by contrast, have access to cheap loans in single digits from their home country financial institutions,” he said.
The MDGIF, he further explained, intervenes “by pricing the risk, coming up with mitigation and catalytic equity, which we now use to bring that barrier to a level to allow Nigerians who are interested to come into the midstream to partner through the equity finance that we will provide without interest.”
“We bring in the catalytic equity, which is about 49 percent, because we want to allow you to be the operator. We will stay with the private investor and walk them through all that,” he added.
He said MDGIF brings “minority equity, due diligence and risk governance” and uses these as catalytic capital “to make the projects bankable, to make them balanced capital structure that will attract private confidence.”
He identified processing plants, transport, storage and last-mile distribution as the main gaps. Non-associated gas, he said, is “very expertise and capital intensive,” and pipeline networks are needed to move gas from the reserve to the last mile.
“The more gas infrastructure we roll out, the more we are helping the energy system where renewables cannot,” he said.
Duruji identified three mandates of the MDGIF: to increase domestic gas consumption, to aggregate flared gas and bring it into the domestic market, and to mobilise private investors who lack the funds to play in the midstream.
“The MDGIF has three mandates: increase domestic gas consumption, aggregate flared gas and bring it into the domestic market, that is key,” he said. “The other mandate is to mobilise private investors that do not have the funds to be able to play in the midstream, bring their funds.”
He added: “We also have the mandate to reduce gas flare in Nigeria exploration and production sites.”
Business
UN Engages NCDMB to Deepen Female Access to $40m Oil, Gas Fund
Easing access to the dedicated $40 million Women in Oil and Gas Fund is the focus of ongoing strategic conversation between the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women), and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB).
Biztellers reports that the two bodies are keen to collaborate to ensure that more women-owned businesses and professionals benefit from industry’s opportunities and consequently play a stronger role across the sector’s value chain.
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Recall that in April 2021, the NCDMB established a $20 million fund dedicated to supporting women-owned and women-led businesses in the oil and gas sector, which the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) complemented by matching the fund with an additional $20 million.
However, despite this significant commitment and favorable loan terms, the uptake of the scheme has remained below expectations to date.
The discussions were advanced last week when the UN Women’s Country Representative to Nigeria and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Ms. Beatrice Eyong, led a delegation to the NCDMB’s Abuja liaison office.
The team was received by the Board’s General Manager of Corporate Communications, Dr. Obinna Ezeobi, on behalf of the Executive Secretary, Engr. Felix Omatsola Ogbe.
The meeting explored proposed capacity-building initiatives for NCDMB personnel, aimed at mainstreaming gender perspectives into the Board’s project planning, budgeting, and execution frameworks.
Other key areas of discussion included vendor development schemes to better position women-led oil and gas businesses for industry opportunities, strategies to raise awareness of available financing options, and potential affirmative procurement measures designed to expand the participation of women-owned companies across the oil and gas value chain.
The UN official commended NCDMB for its ongoing gender inclusion efforts, noting that the Board is already implementing several measures consistent with its mandate.
She proposed conducting a study to identify the reasons women face challenges in accessing the financing facility, including potential barriers related to documentation, business registration, tax compliance, and limited awareness.
She further highlighted key initiatives currently being undertaken by the UN Office, such as programmes on women’s economic empowerment, leadership development, and the elimination of gender-based violence, among others.
Ezeobi welcomed the proposals and affirmed the Board’s readiness to partner with UN Women. He highlighted several innovative initiatives already implemented by the Board to create opportunities for women to participate, grow, and lead in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
These include the establishment of a dedicated funding scheme with NEXIM Bank that enables women-owned or women-led firms to access financing at a highly competitive 5 per cent interest rate, as well as the creation of a Diversity Sectoral Working Group within the Nigerian Content Consultative Forum (NCCF), designed to mainstream women’s issues into local content policy and decision-making processes.
The Board also supports associations of women who work across the Energy Industry value chain, where they network, build confidence and links to progress their careers or businesses.
Ezeobi noted that NCDMB has also invested significantly in capacity-building programs for women entrepreneurs and business leaders, covering critical areas such as business sustainability, corporate governance, and strategic management.
The Board has further supported women’s participation in technical occupations while encouraging young girls to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).
He acknowledged that women remain underrepresented in the oil and gas industry, citing limited access to technical education, finance, and commercial opportunities, as well as entrenched perceptions of the sector as predominantly male.
Ezeobi reiterated NCDMB’s willingness to collaborate with UN Women to address these challenges and recommended strategies to accelerate the Board’s support for UN Women’s programmes, thereby advancing gender inclusion across the industry.
Business
Afreximbank Charts Côte d’Ivoire’s Rise as a Regional Growth Leader in WA
The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has released its Côte d’Ivoire Country Brief, providing an in-depth examination of the West African nation’s macroeconomic outlook, regional and international trade dynamics, financial sector development and debt sustainability profile.
The brief highlights Côte d’Ivoire as one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies. Home to 33.5 million people and with a nominal GDP forecast at USD116.9 billion in 2027, the country has sustained average real GDP growth of around 6.5% per year between 2021 and 2024, accelerating to an estimated 6.6% in 2025. Growth is forecast to moderate to 5.8% in 2026 before rebounding to 6.2% in 2027, supported by rising crude production, continued infrastructure investment and resilient domestic demand.
The brief also points to a notably improved near-term macroeconomic environment. Inflation fell sharply to just 0.1% in 2025, supported by easing commodity price pressures and government measures to stabilise fuel and food prices, with the CFA franc’s euro peg providing a durable exchange rate anchor. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3% of GDP in 2025, meeting the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) ceiling, backed by stronger revenue collection and ongoing reforms to tax administration and VAT digitalisation.
On trade, this edition charts a significant expansion. Total trade surged from USD26 billion in 2018 to USD57 billion in 2025, anchored by Côte d’Ivoire’s status as the world’s largest cocoa producer, commanding around 40% of global supply, alongside growing exports of cashew nuts, rubber, gold and hydrocarbons.
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The February 2026 Calao South gas condensate discovery and rising output from the Baleine field signaled a broadening export base over the medium term. Strategically positioned on the Gulf of Guinea, with the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro acting as principal gateways into Francophone West Africa, Côte d’Ivoire is deeply embedded in regional trade networks, with African markets accounting for around 22% of its goods trade in 2025.
The brief further notes Côte d’Ivoire’s financial sector strength. The country holds the largest banking sector in UEMOA, accounting for more than a third of regional banking assets. Regulatory reforms, including the adoption of Basel II and Basel III standards, have strengthened supervision and resilience, while the launch of the Central Bank of West African States’ (BCEAO) interoperable instant payment platform in September 2025 is broadening access to digital financial services across the economy.
As this edition notes, Côte d’Ivoire “has moved from a period of rapid debt accumulation and elevated debt service pressure towards a more stable debt profile, supported by fiscal consolidation, active debt management and continued multilateral engagement.” This is a trajectory that positions the country to fully capitalise on the ambitious targets of its 2026-2030 National Development Plan.
Afreximbank’s Group Chief Economist & Managing Director Research commented: “Côte d’Ivoire is consolidating its position as a leading West African growth and trade hub. Its expanding energy sector, world-class agricultural base, regional port infrastructure and increasingly sophisticated financial system offer a strong foundation to attract investment, scale value addition and deepen trade links across Africa.”





