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NNPC Ltd Credits Reforms With $24bn Investments Boost for Three Million bpd Oil Target
With Nigeria focused on efforts to achieve its three million barrels per day production target, recent reforms in the oil and gas sector have unlocked over $24bn in fresh investments, with an additional $10bn currently in the pipeline.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited made the revelation through its Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, on Thursday, in Abuja, at the 2026 Oloibiri Lecture and Energy Forum, where industry leaders converged to chart the future of Nigeria’s upstream sector.
The lecture in its 26th edition was themed, “Beyond the Three Million Barrels Target: Harmonising Digitalisation, Capital and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimisation.”
Organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers, OLEF gathers policymakers, industry leaders, and academics to foster innovation and growth.
Ojulari, who was represented by the Executive Vice President, Upstream, Udobong Ntia, said the resolution of long-standing disputes and previously stalled Final Investment Decisions had significantly boosted investor confidence.
He also stated that the national oil company is ramping up AI pilots and digital mining of decades-old data to slash costs and propel Nigeria’s upstream sector toward a 3 million barrels per day (bpd) production goal.
He said, “Shortening the project cycle is very important. It would help us a lot. The resolution of long-standing issues, including legacy asset disputes and previously stalled FIDs, has unlocked significant investor confidence. These interventions have contributed over $24bn in capital investment from just two projects.”
He added, “I haven’t even added Owowo. There is an extra $10bn in the works, and some others that we are looking at very closely. Bosi has just passed gate one with the operators. Who knew Bosi would be headline news? There is a lot to look forward to.”
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The NNPC Ltd boss said Nigeria now has a potential investment pipeline of about $34bn, combining confirmed and prospective inflows, describing it as a strong signal of renewed global confidence in the country’s oil and gas sector.
He stressed that beyond funding, the country must urgently embrace digital transformation, warning that failure to adopt artificial intelligence could leave operators uncompetitive.
He added, “I’ve been preaching AI for a long time, and it has now become an imperative. If we don’t do it, we’re going to be buried, frankly.”
“It is no longer a nice-to-have. It is an absolute necessity. We have spent a lot of money digitising our data, but if we don’t mine it, we will lose one of the most critical variables in the oil industry — data. We have to, and NNPC has shown leadership, spent a lot of money digitising all our data. Nigeria’s business are so mature and data-rich that if we don’t do anything about it, we will lose in the future one of the things that will be the most important variables you will have in the oil industry, data. We have to learn how to mine it.
“We have to do it as an imperative, otherwise our costs will balloon out of this world. There’s so much we can do, and we need to stay focused on that. The thing before us, beyond the 3 million barrels target, is both timely and instructive.
It recognises that reaching and sustaining 3 million barrels per day is not merely a production aspiration but a commercial, regulatory, and capital slash digital opportunity. What I have in my notes is a digital challenge, but it’s frankly an opportunity if we begin to shift our focus to what really matters. It’s not just the operators that need to begin to move in that direction, it’s also the service providers.”
According to him, Nigeria holds decades of untapped data dating back to the first commercial oil discovery in 1956, much of which remains underutilised.
“We have logs still on paper, seismic data that have not been analysed. There is so much we can do. With technology alone, the three-million-barrel target is within sight in the next three to four years,” he stated.
Ojulari outlined a three-pronged strategy by NNPC to achieve the production target, including protecting existing assets, accelerating near-term production growth, and restructuring the company’s portfolio to attract new investors.
“To support Nigeria’s aspiration to reach and sustain three million barrels per day, NNPC Limited is executing a clearly sequenced, commercially grounded, three-stage strategy. And I want you to listen to this. The first one, we are protecting the base. Very important, we protect the base.
“What has been produced, the assets we have, ensure we keep integrity going. I mean, there are two words I want to try to eliminate. Two words I want to eliminate from our dictionary in the upstream and it’s called aged facilities. Some of us have worked abroad. And when we see facilities, a 10-year asset is looking brand new just by the way they maintain it. So the culture has to change across the board.
“Second, accelerating near-term growth. Through innovative commercial and financing frameworks, including alternative funding structures and optimised risk sharing, we are fast-tracking mature projects capable of delivering incremental barrels in the near-term. So you protect the base in the first case. In the second case, you accelerate near-term growth.
“And the third thing we’re working on is strategic portfolio review, which a number of you may have heard about. We’re reshaping our portfolio to unlock value, to enable new oil from new players. And I put that in parentheses. New oil from New players. Give people the opportunity to come invest in incremental production, and let’s see how that would go.
“We want to deepen indigenous participation and attract capital and capabilities. Capital is going to go towards the path of least resistance. It doesn’t like uncertainty. When you make a law, you stay with it. They want to stay for up to five or seven years. And they can’t wake up one morning, and the law has changed.”
He noted that improved regulatory clarity under the Petroleum Industry Act had helped eliminate funding bottlenecks, particularly the long-standing issue of cash call arrears.
“I don’t think any company can say it has struggled with cash calls in the last one and a half years. The PIA has helped tremendously,” he added.
He further described the three million barrels target as more than a production goal, saying it is a test of Nigeria’s regulatory efficiency, capital discipline, and digital readiness.
“We are grateful for the PIA and the executive orders that the president has signed in the last year. They have really helped advance a number of things. We have seen movements in some deepwater assets that have been in legacy litigation for a while. We have seen advancements in key deepwater assets as well, inching closer to Final investment decisions. And we are glad that we would have them in our portfolio to make up the 3 million barrels that we are looking at, we think it is going to be more, but let’s just stick to 3 million barrels,” he said.
Also speaking, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, said Nigeria already possesses the technical capacity to transform its energy sector, but must now demonstrate stronger execution.
“It tells me that the intelligence is already there. What remains is the political will, and that has been clearly provided by Mr President through executive orders and reforms,” he said.
He described the Petroleum Industry Act as a turning point for the sector, noting that it had created a more transparent and investor-friendly environment.
“The PIA marks a watershed. It provides clarity, predictability, and a framework that supports innovation and long-term value creation,” Ekpo stated.
The minister emphasised that achieving higher oil production must go hand-in-hand with increased gas utilisation, describing gas as central to Nigeria’s economic transformation.
“Natural gas remains at the heart of our energy future. It is not just a transition fuel, it is a catalyst for industrialisation, power generation, and export diversification,” he said.
He added that digitalisation, capital investment, and sound policy must work together to unlock Nigeria’s full energy potential.
“Digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and automation will reduce downtime, improve efficiency, and enhance safety. But capital will only flow where there is stability and clear returns,” he said.
The Oloibiri Lecture and Energy Forum, organised by the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council, commemorates Nigeria’s first oil discovery in Oloibiri, Bayelsa State, in 1956, and serves as a platform for policy and technical dialogue in the energy sector.
Stakeholders at the event agreed that while Nigeria has the resources and policy framework to scale production, execution, regulatory consistency, and technology adoption will determine whether the country can compete effectively in the evolving global energy market.
Earlier in the Chief sponsors’ remarks, the Executive Secretary of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund, Shuaibu Shehu, insisted that players in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector must integrate digital technologies, efficient capital use, and robust policies to exceed the three million barrels per day production target.
Represented by the general manager, Research and Innovation, PTDF, Olayinka Agboola, Prof. Shehu, highlighted gains from the PIA, which has enhanced investor confidence and regulatory clarity.
Digital tools like automation, AI, IoT, machine learning, and robotics are now transforming operations, slashing costs, and sharpening decision-making across the value chain.
The gas sector also shows promise, with infrastructure drives boosting industrialisation, energy access, and Nigeria’s role in the global energy transition.
He said the PTDF is ramping up human capital efforts through PhD Split-Site Programmes, Centres of Excellence in Kaduna and Port Harcourt, specialised tech trainings, STEM initiatives, and academia-industry partnerships.
“We prioritise sustainable local capacity over international dependence,” Agboola noted, pushing research commercialisation to tackle real challenges.
However, challenges remained, including operational hurdles, regulatory delays, and the need for collaboration among regulators, operators, financiers, and trainers, he noted.
Stakeholders in the oil and gas sector have welcomed the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) projection that Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector is to attract between $30 billion and $50 billion in offshore investments between 2026 and 2030.
According to the Commission, the investment pipeline will be driven by 22 major offshore projects expected to boost crude oil production, create jobs, expand energy infrastructure, and strengthen the country’s energy security.
They believe that achieving these milestones will require peace and stability in the Niger Delta and protection of national assets, especially oil pipelines through Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL) operations.
Nigeria is determined to achieve $30 billion and $50 billion in offshore investments between 2026 and 2030 is real, according to the (NUPRC).
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The NUPRC attributed the improved outlook to reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), improved licensing transparency, and faster project approvals.
Since 2024, the regulator has approved more than $57 billion in Field Development Plans (FDP), with several projects already progressing to Final Investment Decisions (FID).
The Commission also said preparations for the 2026 Licensing Round are underway as it seeks to attract further investment into Nigeria’s upstream sector. The planned projects are expected to support the government’s target of increasing crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
Gaining the oil sector backing in this milestone journey requires more than policy pronouncements from the NUPRC.
It requires investment drive, attractiveness to global energy markets and support of domestic players in the industry.
President General, Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Victor Udoh, said to effectively harness the oil revenue requires that the Niger Delta, a region severally described as the goose that lays the golden eggs, must also be at peace and oil infrastructure across the region well secured.
He explained that it is where the Federal Government of Nigeria’s appointment of the TSSNL to protect oil assets and ensure peace and stability in the Niger Delta comes to play.
He added that the singular act will contribute positively to achieving $30 billion and $50 billion in offshore investments between 2026 and 2030, as predicted by the NUPRC.
The desire for a transparent investment framework offering hopes of unlocking up to $50 billion in deep offshore investment and restarting Nigeria’s large, capital-intensive offshore developments that have been stalled for long has seen President Bola Ahmed Tinubu sanction a landmark reform that replaces project-by-project negotiations.
According to a statement issued by presidential spokesperson, Bayo Onanuga, the reform establishes a transparent, rules-based investment framework capable of supporting the next generation of deep offshore developments, beginning with the approximately $10 billion Bonga South West project, while strengthening Nigeria’s competitiveness for globally mobile investment capital.
The decision, the statement said, builds on Tinubu’s engagement with the Chief Executive Officer of Shell PLC, Wael Sawan, during which the President directed the development of the next wave of measures required to unlock Nigeria’s deep offshore investment pipeline.
Rather than pursuing project-specific solutions, the federal government transformed that directive into a comprehensive investment framework applicable across multiple categories of qualifying developments, it said.
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Given effect through the Deep Offshore Oil and Gas Projects Incentives (Tax Remission) Order, 2026, the framework replaces project-by-project negotiations with transparent eligibility criteria, clear implementation processes and a durable investment architecture that provides greater certainty for investors while safeguarding long-term national value.
The approval also enables the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), as the government’s nominated counterparty under the Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) to proceed with the necessary amendments to eligible PSCs required to implement the framework.
Tinubu commended the Federal Ministry of Justice, the Federal Ministry of Finance, the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), the NNPC Limited, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), investing partners and other industry stakeholders whose collaboration, technical expertise and commitment helped shape the framework.
Tinubu said: “The countries that attract long-term investment are not necessarily those with the greatest natural resources. They are the ones that provide the greatest certainty. This reform reflects our determination to build an investment environment defined by clear rules, strong institutions and enduring partnerships.
“We are creating the conditions for capital to flow, for Nigerian businesses to grow, for our people to prosper and for our natural resources to deliver lasting national value.”
Oil companies operating in Nigeria risk up to five percent of annual operating turnover in penalties on being found guilty of serious anti-competitive practices if a brewing industry regulation sees the light of day.
According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the arm of the government championing this strategy, this would apply to breaches in both the midstream and downstream sectors.
The strategy is contained in the draft regulations of the proposed Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Prevention of Anti-Competitive Practices and Behaviour Regulations, 2026.
Under the proposed regulations, companies involved in breaches such as price-fixing, bid-rigging, market allocation, abuse of market dominance and other conduct capable of causing significant harm to competition could be fined between three and five percent of their annual turnover.
Persistent or serious offenders may also have their licences suspended or revoked, while the Authority may impose daily penalties on operators that fail to comply with its orders or continue prohibited conduct after being directed to stop.
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The draft regulation states, “Where the Authority determines, after investigation and due process, that a licensee or any other person has engaged in anti-competitive conduct or breached any provision of this Regulation or the Act, it may impose administrative fines as provided herein.”
It further states, “The maximum administrative fine shall not exceed five per cent of the annual turnover of the offending undertaking for the preceding financial year.
“For purposes of these regulations, ‘annual turnover’ means gross revenues or sales derived from the regulated business activities in Nigeria. Where multiple entities or group structures are involved, the Authority may consider the turnover of the group, subsidiary, or segment most directly involved in the infringement.”
The proposed framework classifies competition infringements into three categories, with Category A covering severe offences, Category B moderate offences and Category C minor or technical breaches.
Category A offences attract indicative fines of between three and five per cent of annual turnover. They include cartel agreements involving price-fixing, bid-rigging and market allocation, as well as abuse of dominance with foreclosure effects, such as predatory pricing and refusal to supply an essential facility.
Aggravating factors would include repeat offending, obstructing an investigation, having a large market share or causing significant harm to the market. Mitigating factors include voluntary self-reporting, cooperation beyond legal obligations, early termination of prohibited conduct and an established compliance programme.
Category B offences attract fines of between one and three per cent of annual turnover and include exclusive dealing without clear foreclosure, tying or bundling with minor market harm and unfair discrimination between trading partners.
Category C offences could attract fixed penalties ranging from N5m to N50m or less than one per cent of turnover. These include failure to submit required competition reports, delays in submitting compliance reports and inadvertent data omissions or misstatements.
An operator that fails to comply with a final cease-and-desist order could face a daily penalty of between N5m and N25m until compliance is achieved. The proposed rules provide, “Where a licensee or person fails to comply with an order or directive of the Authority, a daily penalty may be imposed for each day the violation continues.”
Where a prohibited practice continues after a final order, the daily penalty could rise to between N10m and N50m. Before imposing a fine, the NMDPRA would issue a Notice of Intention to Fine setting out the facts and findings, the nature of the infringement, the basis for calculating the proposed fine and the proposed deadline for payment.
The affected operator would have at least 30 days to make written representations or request a hearing.
It states, “Before imposing a fine, the Authority shall issue a Notice of Intention to Fine, specifying: (a) The facts, findings, and nature of the infringement; (b) The basis for the proposed fine, including its calculation; and (c) The proposed deadline for payment. The respondent shall be granted no fewer than 30 days to make written representations or request a hearing.”
The proposed framework also extends accountability to individuals who knowingly participate in serious anti-competitive practices. Directors, managers and officers could face personal sanctions, including referral to the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) for personal liability under the FCCPC Act.
Persistent or serious violations could also result in the suspension or revocation of an operator’s licence or permit. Operators would generally be required to pay penalties within 30 days of a Final Penalty Order (FPO). The framework preserves the right to appeal, while unpaid fines would constitute debts recoverable by the Authority.
Meanwhile, stakeholders and operators have up to 21 days to submit comments, approval or objection on the proposed regulations, in compliance with Section 216(1) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which requires stakeholder consultation before regulations are finalised.
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