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World Bank Report: ‘Nigeria Needs 10% Growth for 20 Years to Reduce Poverty’ — Ekpo

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World Bank deploys $114.9 to finance global crises in 2022

Emeritus Professor of Economics, Akpan Ekpo, has said Nigeria needs to achieve and sustain double-digit economic growth for between 15 and 20 years to make a significant impact on poverty.

Ekpo made the submission while reacting to the latest World Bank assessment of Nigeria’s economic outlook, which raised the country’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3 per cent.

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Recall that the World Bank, in its October 2026 Africa Economic Update, projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025, before rising to 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.

The lender attributed the improved outlook to improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.

However, Ekpo cautioned against celebrating single-digit growth, arguing that economic growth alone does not amount to development.

“I don’t think we should celebrate the 4.1% growth. The World Bank itself knows that growth is not development,” Ekpo said.

According to the economist, Nigeria needs to grow at least 10 per cent annually and sustain such expansion for about 15 to 20 years to make a meaningful dent in poverty.

“You have to grow at least double-digit, sustained for about 15–20 years to have a dent on poverty,” he said.

‘4% Growth Is Too Weak’

Ekpo said even the World Bank’s assessment indicates that the current pace of growth remains insufficient to create the jobs and opportunities Nigeria needs.

He noted that the World Bank had identified electricity, reliable internet access, infrastructure and human capital development among the areas requiring attention.

“But the problem is that the 4.1% growth cannot achieve those things,” he said.

The World Bank has similarly stressed that stronger growth must translate into better living standards, productive jobs and poverty reduction, with investment in infrastructure, human capital and productivity needed to sustain the gains.

Ekpo said Nigeria therefore needs to move beyond celebrating modest improvements in GDP and focus on achieving structural economic transformation.

Ekpo Faults Manufacturing Contribution

The economist also criticised the structure of Nigeria’s economy, particularly the limited contribution of manufacturing.

According to him, Nigeria’s economic transformation should involve movement from agriculture and mining into industry and manufacturing before services become dominant.

“They left out the issue of manufacturing, that is where the crux of the matter is,” he said.

Ekpo argued that manufacturing should contribute at least 40 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP for the economy to undergo meaningful structural transformation.

“An economy has—the structure has to be transformed where that sector called manufacturing contributes at least 40% to GDP,” he said.

He claimed that manufacturing had contributed less than 12 per cent to Nigeria’s GDP over the past 60 years.

The economist also pointed to Nigeria’s trade structure, saying manufactured exports account for about two per cent of total exports, while manufactured imports account for about 48 per cent.

“So you cannot say with that that the economy has been transformed,” he said.

Ekpo Questions Macroeconomic Stability

Ekpo also questioned the description of Nigeria’s economy as enjoying broad macroeconomic stability.

He acknowledged improvements on the monetary side but said significant challenges remained on the fiscal side.

“On the monetary side, yes, the CBN has restored some integrity in that sub-sector. But on the fiscal side, we still have challenges,” he said.

He argued that economic stability should also be assessed from the perspective of households and businesses, which collectively form the broader economy.

“You can’t have stability on only one side of the economy, that is relative stability, and say the economy is stable,” Ekpo said.
‘It Is a Warning Signal’

While describing the World Bank report as balanced, Ekpo said it should be treated as a warning to policymakers rather than a reason for celebration.

“The report, in my view, is balanced. I’m not a World Bank fan, but it’s balanced because they raised fundamental issues that those who manage the economy, we have to do for us to make progress,” he said.

He maintained that although growth is necessary for development, growth alone does not guarantee development.

“Yes, you need to grow to develop, but you can grow and not be developed. And that growth must be double-digit, 10% and above, and sustained for about 15 or 20 years,” Ekpo said.

He called for deliberate government action to fix electricity, tackle insecurity and reduce poverty, while also warning that persistent double-digit inflation remains a challenge.

“I don’t think the report is what we should celebrate, but it’s a warning signal that we should do more,” he said.

“Inflation is still double-digit, so the report has to be treated cautiously.”

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Investors Embrace DPRP IPO Globally, 120 Countries, 54 African Nations

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) has successfully concluded its landmark Initial Public Offering (IPO), attracting investor applications from 120 countries across the world, including all of Africa’s 54 countries.

A company statement describes it as an unprecedented demonstration of the continent’s capacity to mobilise capital and broaden ownership of strategic industrial assets.

The historic offering, widely described as The People’s IPO, achieved 100 percent geographical coverage of Africa, bringing together investors from across the continent and beyond in a transaction that could redefine the scale, accessibility and international reach of African capital markets.

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More than a conventional fundraising exercise, the IPO has emerged as a landmark in financial inclusion, demonstrating how digital technology, coordinated financial institutions and innovative distribution channels can connect millions of potential investors to opportunities previously dominated by institutional and high-net-worth participants. The transaction was supported by an extensive network of commercial banks, stockbroking firms, fintech platforms, capital market institutions and distribution partners, whose collaboration expanded access to the offer across national boundaries and created new pathways for retail participation.

For the Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), the conclusion of the IPO marks a defining moment in its industrial journey, transforming the refinery’s ownership proposition from an investment driven by a single entrepreneurial vision into an opportunity for broader African participation. President and Chief Executive of the DIL, Aliko Dangote, described the outcome as a powerful affirmation of African confidence, enterprise and the continent’s ability to mobilise its own resources for development.

“When we set out to build this refinery, many doubted that a project of this scale could be delivered by Africans. We proved that Africa could build it. Today, through this historic IPO, we have demonstrated something equally important: Africans are ready to own and participate in the prosperity created by their own industries.

“To have investor applications from all 54 African countries is deeply significant to me. It tells us that our people do not simply want to consume what Africa produces; they want to invest in it, own it and share in its future. This is the Africa we have always believed in,” he said. “We did not undertake this IPO simply because we needed to raise capital. We wanted to open the doors of ownership, give ordinary Africans an opportunity to participate in an enterprise of global significance and establish a new culture of shared prosperity. The refinery was built in Africa, by African determination, and its future must create opportunities for Africans. Today, we have made history together. But the greater achievement will be the generation of African investors, entrepreneurs and industrialists that this transaction inspires. Our ambition is not merely to build successful businesses. It is to help build a prosperous, self-reliant Africa whose people are participants in its economic destiny. As we advance our expansion programme and Vision 2030 strategy, we remain committed to strengthening our operational performance, deepening our contribution to Africa’s energy security and building an enterprise that rewards the confidence placed in it”

The IPO’s geographical reach is particularly significant for a continent where capital markets have historically been fragmented by national boundaries, differing regulatory environments and limited retail investor participation. By attracting applications from all 54 African countries, the transaction has demonstrated the potential for a more connected investment ecosystem in which Africans can participate in major industrial opportunities beyond their domestic markets. The offering also highlights the growing importance of digital financial infrastructure in widening investment access. Through partnerships involving traditional financial institutions and technology-driven investment platforms, the transaction created multiple channels through which eligible investors could express interest and submit applications.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of DPRP, David Bird, said the international response reflected confidence in the refinery’s operating capabilities, industrial scale and long-term growth prospects.

“The successful conclusion of this IPO is a remarkable milestone for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. Investor applications spanning 120 countries demonstrate the extraordinary international interest in our business and the confidence that investors are placing in the future of this refinery. We have built one of the world’s most significant refining and petrochemical complexes, and our focus remains on translating that industrial scale into operational excellence, sustainable growth and long-term shareholder value,” he said. “What makes this transaction particularly meaningful is the breadth of participation. The opportunity to own a stake in a major African industrial enterprise has reached investors across every African country and all six inhabited continents. That is a powerful endorsement of the refinery’s potential and of Africa’s growing relevance in global investment markets.”

The refinery’s IPO opened on September 14, 2026, offering 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 per share, representing a proposed capital raise of approximately N2.15 trillion. Initially scheduled to close on October 13, the offer was extended to October 27 following approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission, allowing additional time for investors across Africa and other international markets to participate. The extension reflected the Group’s stated ambition to prioritise the breadth of ownership alongside the financial objectives of the transaction. Beyond the industrial significance of the refinery itself, the IPO has also established a model for collaboration across Africa’s financial services ecosystem. Its distribution network brought together institutions operating across banking, securities trading, financial technology and investor engagement, demonstrating how coordinated infrastructure can expand access to large-scale investment opportunities.

On his part, the Group Chief Financial Officer, DIL, Murat Erden, on the execution and wider significance of the offering, said the transaction had established an important precedent for the continent’s capital markets.

“The Dangote Refinery People’s IPO represents much more than a landmark capital-raising exercise. It marks a defining moment in the evolution of African capital markets, demonstrating our continent’s ability to mobilise domestic savings, connect investors across borders and broaden ownership of strategic industrial assets. Reaching investors in 120 countries, including all 54 African nations, is an extraordinary achievement and a powerful testament to the growing investment appetite across our continent. By bringing together banks, capital market institutions, stockbrokers, fintech platforms and innovative digital distribution channels, we have demonstrated that African capital markets can transcend national boundaries and connect millions of people to investment opportunities previously beyond their reach,” he said. “Importantly, this transaction is underpinned by exceptional industrial and financial fundamentals. With US22.5 billion in revenue and US5.52 billion in EBITDA in the first nine months of 2026, Dangote Refinery combines world-class industrial scale, strong profitability and significant long-term growth potential. Our greatest achievement is not simply the capital we mobilise, but the doors we open and the foundation we lay for future generations of African investors, entrepreneurs and businesses. We believe the People’s IPO will be remembered not only as a landmark transaction in African capital market history, but as a blueprint for a more inclusive, interconnected and globally competitive African financial ecosystem — one in which Africans increasingly finance, own and share in the prosperity created by their continent’s industrial transformation.”

The successful conclusion of the offer comes as Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals pursues an ambitious programme to expand its refining and petrochemical operations, strengthen its distribution network and support greater energy security across Africa. Located in Lagos, the refinery represents one of the continent’s largest private industrial investments and a major effort to reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products while building domestic processing capacity.

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Dangote Refinery Pioneers Honeywell’s AI Technology

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) is set to become the first industrial facility to deploy Honeywell Technologies’ newly launched artificial intelligence platform, in a major technological advancement projected to deliver more than $60 million in annual gross operational benefits at full refining capacity.

The deployment of the platform, known as Forge Plant Cognition, will position the Lekki-based refinery at the forefront of AI-driven industrial operations, combining Honeywell Technologies’ process engineering expertise with NVIDIA’s artificial intelligence capabilities and Dell Technologies’ computing infrastructure to improve refining efficiency, maximise output and strengthen operational reliability. Announcing the development, Honeywell Technologies said the new platform would make its global debut at Dangote Refinery, one of the world’s largest refineries, as part of efforts to unlock greater value from existing industrial assets and transform how complex refining and petrochemical facilities are operated.

According to preliminary assessments, the technology could generate operational benefits exceeding 29 cents per barrel at the refinery. At full-capacity throughput, Honeywell estimates that the improvements could translate into more than $60 million in annual gross benefits. The company, however, clarified that the projection was specific to the Dangote facility, based on preliminary data and subject to actual operating conditions. The development represents another significant step in Dangote Refinery’s technological evolution, as the company moves beyond the construction and commissioning of a world-class industrial complex towards the deployment of advanced digital systems designed to maximise productivity, strengthen competitiveness and support its ambitious expansion programme.

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Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of DPRP, David Bird, said the decision to adopt the technology reflected the refinery’s commitment to operational excellence, innovation and the development of Nigerian engineering talent.

“We chose Honeywell Technologies’ Forge Plant Cognition because the platform can deliver unrivaled industrial expertise combined with differentiated AI capabilities to help us optimize performance, unlock greater value from our operations and evolve how we operate our assets,” Bird said. “This investment reinforces our commitment to operational excellence, advancing technology and developing Nigerian talent to operate at world-class standards.”

Unlike conventional industrial monitoring systems that primarily analyse operating data and generate recommendations, Forge Plant Cognition is designed to integrate real-time plant information with engineering knowledge, advanced calculations, and physics-based models to identify operational constraints and support faster, more informed decisions. The technology will enable refinery engineers and operators to detect potential equipment and process problems before they escalate, identify bottlenecks affecting production and recommend corrective actions to improve throughput, product yields, and overall plant performance.

Honeywell explained that the platform would focus on three critical areas: identifying opportunities to improve refining margins, protecting production by reducing unplanned downtime, and making specialised engineering expertise more readily available to plant personnel. By combining these capabilities, the system is expected to help operators extract greater value from existing equipment while strengthening the reliability and efficiency of interconnected refining processes. Forge Plant Cognition would help transfer specialised process knowledge into AI-powered tools accessible to local engineers and operators, enabling them to solve complex problems more efficiently and develop advanced industrial capabilities. The initiative supports Dangote Refinery’s objective of building a workforce comprising more than 70 per cent Nigerians, while progressively reducing dependence on external technical expertise.

President of Honeywell Technologies UOP, Rajesh Gattupalli, described the collaboration with Dangote as a demonstration of the potential of artificial intelligence to transform large-scale industrial operations.

“Industrial plants are among the most complex operating environments in the world, with enormous potential to realize greater performance and value using digital technologies and connected solutions,” Gattupalli said. “By collaborating with Dangote to launch Forge Plant Cognition, we are demonstrating how AI can help transform industrial operations, driving new levels of productivity, reliability and profitability at significant scale.”

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Standard Chartered Inks Deal for Shell Gas Sale

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Standard Chartered says it acted as the sole financial adviser to Shell International Limited on the sale of Shell Nigeria Gas Limited to Vaaris Energy Limited, in a transaction expected to be completed in the first half of 2027.

The bank disclosed this in a statement announcing its advisory role in the transaction, which involves one of Nigeria’s leading gas distribution platforms.

Shell entered into an agreement to sell the business on 13 October, 2026, with the transaction expected to provide Vaaris Energy with an established gas infrastructure network serving industrial and commercial customers.

Shell Nigeria Gas provides gas supply solutions to businesses through its extensive distribution infrastructure, positioning the company to benefit from growing domestic gas demand.

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Standard Chartered explained that it provided strategic and financial advice throughout the transaction, managing the entire sale process, including transaction preparation and positioning, buyer engagement, deal structuring, negotiations, due diligence coordination and transaction documentation.

Commenting on the transaction, the Chief Executive Officer and Head of Coverage for Africa at Standard Chartered, Dalu Ajene, stated that Nigeria’s gas sector had an important role to play in supporting the country’s economic ambitions and meeting rising domestic energy demand.

“Nigeria’s gas sector has an important role to play in supporting the country’s economic ambitions and meeting growing domestic energy demand. Across Africa, investment in critical energy infrastructure is essential to unlocking industrial growth and long-term development, and this transaction demonstrates the role strategic investment can play in advancing that opportunity. At Standard Chartered, connecting our clients in Nigeria and across Africa to global capital and investors remains a priority. We are pleased to have supported Shell by bringing together the strength of our international network, deep local knowledge and sector expertise.”

The Head of Mergers and Acquisitions for Africa at Standard Chartered, Yemisi Deji-Bejide, said the transaction demonstrated the bank’s capacity to execute complex deals by combining international expertise with local market knowledge.

“We are proud to have advised Shell on the sale of one of Nigeria’s leading gas distribution platforms. As sole financial adviser, we brought together end-to-end M&A execution, deep sector expertise and strong buyer connectivity. This transaction demonstrates the strength of our Africa M&A franchise and our ability to combine global capabilities with local market insight to execute complex, strategically important transactions for our clients.”

The bank said the transaction supported Shell’s ongoing portfolio optimisation strategy while providing a platform for the continued development of Shell Nigeria Gas under Vaaris Energy.

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