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OPEC Sees Borrowing Dragging Down Nigeria’s Higher Oil Output

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Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.238m bpd in June – OPEC

Nigeria’s economic growth is at the risk of headwinds from elevated borrowing costs and persistently high inflation despite stronger oil production, improved macroeconomic stability and ongoing economic reforms.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expressed the view in its July Monthly Oil Market Report.

According to the OPEC Nigeria’s near-term economic outlook remained positive, supported by improved macroeconomic stability, steady oil production, recovering private-sector activity and continued reform momentum.

According to the report, the country’s economy expanded 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, only slightly below the 4.0 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that growth remained close to recent highs.

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The oil cartel, however, warned that rising inflation, high borrowing costs and the need to maintain exchange-rate stability remained significant risks to the country’s economic outlook.

The OPEC stated, “Overall, Nigeria’s near-term outlook remains positive, supported by oil production, reform progress, infrastructure investment and stronger business activity, but high inflation, elevated borrowing costs and the need to preserve exchange-rate stability remain important challenges”.

The report noted that the non-oil sector continued to drive economic expansion, with agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, finance and insurance providing the main support for growth.

“The non-oil economy continues to provide the main support, with activity driven by agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, and finance and insurance, while higher oil output has improved fiscal revenues, foreign-exchange inflows and external buffers. Survey indicators also point to continued near-term momentum,” the organisation noted, adding that increased oil production had strengthened government revenues, foreign exchange inflows and external reserves.

The OPEC also cited business survey data showing sustained private-sector expansion, noting that the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index eased marginally to 53.4 in June from 54.1 in May but remained above the 50-point threshold that signals expansion.

According to the report, the improvement was driven by higher output, stronger new orders and resilient customer demand, although manufacturing activity softened slightly during the period.

The organisation also said increased domestic refining capacity, including improved fuel supply from the Dangote Refinery, should continue to enhance energy availability and reduce import-related pressures on the economy.

It stated, “At the same time, manufacturing activity was slightly softer. Higher domestic refining capacity, including improved fuel supply from the Dangote Refinery, should continue to support energy availability and reduce some import-related pressures.”

On inflation, the OPEC noted that consumer prices continued to rise, with the inflation rate increasing to 15.9 percent year-on-year in May from 15.7 percent in April, as food prices continued to erode household purchasing power.

It said the inflationary trend meant monetary policy was likely to remain cautious despite improved exchange-rate stability and stronger oil-related inflows.

“Inflation rose further to 15.9 percent y-o-y in May, up from 15.7 percent, y-o-y in April, with food prices still putting pressure on household purchasing power. This means that monetary policy is likely to remain cautious, despite improved exchange-rate stability and stronger oil-related inflows,” the report noted.

International News

Norway’s King Harald Dies at 89, Son Haakon Becomes King

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Norway’s King Harald V has died at the age of 89, bringing an end to his more than three-decade reign and ushering in a new era for the Norwegian monarchy.

The Royal Palace announced on Friday, August 28, 2026, that the monarch died peacefully at Oslo University Hospital at 6:35am local time.

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“It is with deep sadness that we announce that His Majesty King Harald passed away today. King Harald passed away peacefully at Oslo University Hospital on Friday, August 28 at 6:35 am,” the palace said in a statement.

King Harald, who ascended the throne in 1991, had been hospitalised in Oslo since August 17 while receiving treatment for haemolytic anaemia.

His condition became “extremely serious” on Thursday, prompting members of the royal family to gather at his bedside.

His 53-year-old son, Crown Prince Haakon, has automatically succeeded him as monarch under Norway’s constitutional succession rules. He is expected to take the name King Haakon VIII.

Following the announcement of Harald’s death, the flag at the Royal Palace in Oslo was lowered to half-mast, while members of the public gathered outside the palace to lay flowers and mourn the late monarch.

Harald was widely regarded as a popular and unifying figure during his 35 years on the throne. He was also known for his modest lifestyle and efforts to modernise the monarchy.

Kaspara Bolstad, 24, described him as “a very steady and warm king.”

“I think the entire Norwegian people see him as a role model and as someone who brings people together. Whether you’re for or against the monarchy, I think he’s well-liked across the board,” she said.

Magnus Skaugseth, 27, also praised the late King’s inclusive approach.

“He was so inclusive and committed to having values that are inclusive in the society we live in today. When there is so much division and polarisation, he was a pillar pointing in the opposite direction,” Skaugseth said.

Harald had experienced several health challenges in recent years and had undergone procedures including the fitting of a pacemaker. Despite his declining health, he repeatedly ruled out abdication, maintaining that his oath to serve Norway was lifelong.

His death comes during a turbulent period for the Norwegian royal family, which has faced a series of health and personal controversies in recent months.

With Harald’s death, Crown Prince Haakon now takes over the Norwegian throne, marking the beginning of a new chapter for the country’s monarchy.

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‘Your Problem Is That a Son of a Nobody Was Invited’ — VDM Fires Back at Falana

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Social media personality Martins Vincent Otse, popularly known as VeryDarkMan (VDM), has fired back at Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Femi Falana, following the lawyer’s criticism of his invitation to the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) annual conference.

Recall that Falana had criticised the decision to feature VDM as a panelist during a session on “Unknown Gunmen,” arguing that discussions on national security should involve individuals with established experience in the country’s security architecture.

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“In those days, the NBA brought individuals who had paid their dues, who were coming to engage lawyers intellectually. We wanted to learn from them and so none of our conferences was a circus show in the past,” Falana said.

He further stated: “So, if you are bringing in an expert to discuss the security of the country, either from the private or public sector, such an individual must have contributed to the security architecture of the country.”

Falana also said: “But to just go and bring somebody from nowhere to come and entertain you, there are problems with that.”

Reacting in a Facebook post on Friday, VDM said he was initially disappointed by Falana’s comments but claimed they helped him understand the opposition to his invitation.

“And then again, I listened to Femi Falana. When I listened to him, I won’t lie, I was so disappointed in him. Then again, after he spoke, I understood why a lot of them were upset and Femi Falana gave me the answer.

“Their problem is that a son of a nobody was invited and that is just simply what is going on in the media and Femi Falana just made it clear to me. Who knows me? Who is my father? Who knows my family? Who are we? What empire do we have?”

Defending his participation, VDM said his contribution would be based on firsthand experiences.

“This is not about book, it is about experience,” he said, adding, “Security is for everybody. Security is not for some set of people.”

 

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Umar Cautions Against Irregular Policies in Nigeria’s Oil Industry

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A public warning has gone to the authorities to desist from frequently tweaking with the regulatory environment, as it could undermine investments in Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Rabiu Umar, expressed the view on Wednesday in which he highlighted the importance of predictable regulation to the development of Nigeria’s midstream and downstream petroleum sectors.

According to Umar, investors were prepared to manage commercial risks but found regulatory uncertainty more difficult to accommodate, stressing that clear, consistent and predictable rules were critical to attracting and retaining capital.

“Investors are prepared to manage commercial risk. What they find far more difficult is regulatory uncertainty,” he said.

According to him, government efforts to provide fiscal incentives, financing support and policy reforms to encourage investment could achieve little if investors were unsure how the regulatory system would operate in practice.

Umar said investors wanted assurances that rules were clear, decisions were consistent and regulatory processes were predictable, adding that such confidence could influence investment decisions as much as commercial considerations.

He noted that the issue was particularly important in the midstream and downstream sectors, where investments in refineries, pipelines, storage facilities and gas infrastructure were designed to operate over many years.

“Investments in refineries, pipelines, storage facilities and gas infrastructure are designed to operate over many years. Investors need confidence that the regulatory environment will remain stable, consistent and credible throughout the life of those assets,” he said.

The NMDPRA boss said the Petroleum Industry Act had provided the industry with a strong legal and regulatory framework based on transparency, competition and accountability.

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He said the responsibility of the NMDPRA is to ensure that those principles are reflected in its day-to-day regulatory activities.

Umar, who said he had spent nearly three decades on the commercial and operational side of the downstream petroleum industry before joining the Authority, said he understood the concerns investors raised before committing capital.

He listed timely approvals, consistent application of regulations and fair and predictable decisions by institutions among the key issues investors considered.

The NMDPRA chief executive further stated that effective regulation went beyond issuing licences and enforcing compliance, as it should provide certainty and create an environment where businesses could plan and investment could grow.

He said the authority was strengthening collaboration with other government institutions, noting that effective regulation depended not only on good policies but also on consistent implementation.

“When institutions work together, the industry experiences a more coordinated and predictable regulatory environment,” he said.

Umar said the implementation of reforms would ultimately determine the confidence investors had in Nigeria’s regulatory system.

“The true measure of any reform is how it is implemented. Every licence issued, every inspection conducted and every regulatory decision contributes to confidence in the regulatory system,” he stated.

He assured stakeholders that the agency would carry out its mandate fairly, consistently and transparently to support responsible investment and the continued development of Nigeria’s midstream and downstream petroleum industry.

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