NEWS
Report Warns Oil Below $80 Per Barrel Puts Nigeria’s 2026 Budget at Risk, Projects N750/Litre Fuel Price
Nigeria faces a direct fiscal alarm bell in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 as crude oil price dips below $80 per barrel amid fragile global stability, with the Society of Energy Editors (SEE) warning that oil below $80 would be a stress test the country’s economy cannot afford to misread.
In its Q3 2026 Energy & Extractives Outlook released Wednesday, SEE described the current global energy market as a “Tehran-Tel Aviv Paradox”.
The report projected that if crude oil remained below $80, the pump prices of petrol would oscillate between N750 and N850 per litre, depending on the exchange rate window.
It explained that the United States- Iran hostilities had paused, giving a temporary floor to prices, but that Israel’s sustained engagement in Lebanon was keeping a geopolitical risk premium alive.
For Nigeria, the report said the dip below $80 per barrel threatened budget benchmarks and exposed deep structural fragility across downstream, upstream, power, and mining sectors.
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It said the downstream sector entered Q3, 2026 at a crossroads, noting that domestic refining led by Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitated Port Harcourt facility was now running at improved capacity, strengthening the case for full deregulation.
However, SEE warned of a “growing paradox: operational autonomy without price freedom.”
It argued that while supply bottlenecks have eased, the pump prices of petrol have not decoupled from crude volatility.
“If Brent remains sub-$80, we anticipate a grudging, non-linear moderation in pump prices, potentially oscillating between N750 and N850 per litre depending on the exchange rate window,” the report stated.
The real flashpoint, SEE warned, would be the dollar-denominated cost within the domestic chain.
“We project a flashpoint between marketers insisting on mirroring import parity prices and regulators demanding volume over margin. The era of improved domestic refining is here, but the consumer is yet to feel the insulating benefits of a truly naira-based petroleum market”, it noted.
SEE projected that if security improved, oil production would consolidate around 1.75 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates.
However, the report said new volumes would depend on brownfield infill drilling, not deepwater mega-projects, insisting that global capital was fleeing fossil fuels.
It stated that independent producers would increase production through short-cycle tie-backs under the Petroleum Industry Act’s (PIA) improved fiscal terms.
But the report argued that the additional output would be “insufficient to offset the structural decline in maturing basins unless security costs are tamed.”
The report noted that the bigger constraint was finance, stressing that the international commercial banks and development finance institutions were now pricing Nigerian upstream debt at a ‘Violence-Adjusted Cost of Capital’.
According to the report, the banks have projected that the cost of a five-year senior secured reserve-based lending facility for a Nigerian independent will hover between 12 and 15 per cent per annum in hard currency, “assuming it is available at all.”
With risk rising, SEE observed that indigenous players were being forced into “opaque, high-yield private credit funds or forced to pre-sell crude at steep discounts to commodity traders.”
SEE also flagged a security-investment doom loop, explaining that as oil prices dip, government revenue to fund surveillance contracts and the military Joint Task Force tightens.
“A liquidity crisis in the protective architecture, just as economic hardship on the waterways rises, is a recipe for a spike in illegal bunkering and sabotage”, the report said.
The group urged a shift from a kinetic model to a community-led, technology-driven “Pipeline Protection 2.0” framework co-financed by operators to insulate it from federal budget cycles.
The report, however, concluded that the oil below $80 was a manageable stress test, not a catastrophe, provided the macro-economic managers would treat it as a permanent shift rather than a transient dip.
“Q3 2026 will be defined by the tension between operational progress and financial fragility. The energy sector is supplying the molecules; the question remains whether the economic framework can absorb them. In mining, the question is even sharper: without territorial security, the subsurface remains a curse rather than a treasury”, it added.
NEWS
‘Celebrate This Poor Man’ – Shettima Defends Tinubu Over Economic Crisis
Vice President Kashim Shettima has urged Nigerians to celebrate President Bola Tinubu, saying his leadership saved the country from a potential implosion.
Shettima said Nigeria’s economy had been teetering on the edge of collapse before Tinubu’s intervention, adding that the country could have faced a different situation.
“The economy was teetering on the edge of collapse, we were on a cliff edge,” the Vice President said.
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“So he literally saved the nation from an implosion. That could have been the scenario. So, instead of demonizing him, Nigerians ought to celebrate this poor man.”
Shettima also called for a return to the drawing board, expressing confidence in the leadership’s commitment and the prospects for the 2027 elections.
“I believe on the bottom of my heart that with this presentation I have seen, and with the commitment of our leadership, by the grace of God, we are going to win,” he said.
Speaking about the 2027 elections, the Vice President reminded his audience that social media platforms should not be mistaken for actual polling stations.
“There are no polling stations on Facebook or Instagram,” he said.
Shettima also expressed gratitude for the efforts made towards promoting the cause of the 2027 elections.
NEWS
FG Withdraws Charges Against ‘Fake Agency’ DG, Adeniyi Adeyemi
Following observed mis-steps, the Federal Government of Nigeria has withdrawn the eight-count criminal charge brought against the alleged fake Director General (DG) of the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council (PFIPC), Adeniyi Adeyemi.
Biztellers reports that the matter, in accordance with the counsel of the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Olasunkanmi Fagbemi, (SAN), the matter will be filed at the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), instead of the Federal High Court (FHC).
Consequently, upon an unopposed application for termination by the prosecution counsel and Director of the Public Prosecution of the Federation (DPPF), Rotimi Oyedepo (SAN), on Monday, Justice Mohammed Umar of a Federal High Court, Abuja on Monday, struck out the matter.
READ ALSO: Shell Identifies Keys to Nigeria’s Energy Future
In a motion for the termination of the charges, Oyedepo informed the court that the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice has carried out a review of the case file of Adeyemi and the charge filed by the Inspector General of Police (IGP) and found some loopholes.
The DPPF added that the documents allegedly forged by Adeyemi during his operations of the fake agency are those that can be prosecuted by the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
He also informed the court that a new charge has been filed at the High Court of the FCT and that Adeyemi would be expeditiously arraigned afresh.
He therefore urged the judge to strike out the charge as required by law.
Following no objections from Ibrahim Angulu (SAN), who stood in for Adeyemi, Justice Umar subsequently terminated the charge.
Adeniyi, 38, was being tried alongside two others whose whereabouts are unknown, on charges bordering on conspiracy and forgery.
The two others said to be at large were identified as Femi (surname unknown) and Anu (surname unknown).
The charge marked: FHC/ABJ/CR/25/2025, was entered against the defendant by the DPPF.
NEWS
Shell Identifies Keys to Nigeria’s Energy Future
To secure a bright energy for her teeming population, Nigeria must sustain the momentum of reform, accelerate investment, and deepen partnerships.
This view was expressed by Managing Director, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company of Nigeria Limited (SNEPCo) Ronald Adams in Lagos at the weekend.
Delivering a keynote address at the Africa Energy Conference (AEC) of the Lagos Business School (LBS), Adams called for regulatory certainty through efficient execution of reforms, sustained investment appeal to enable projects to move more swiftly from opportunity to production and partnership by operators, regulators, NNPC Limited and communities to unlock the full value of Nigeria’s resources.
Adams cited Nigeria’s huge oil and gas resources as an advantage but pointed out: “Resources alone do not guarantee prosperity. Prosperity comes when resources are matched with investment, technology, sound policy and disciplined execution. Success will be determined not by the size of our resources, but by our ability to convert them into investment and economic growth.”
Adams pledged the support of Shell towards a bright energy future of Nigerians. He said: “For more than six decades, Shell has been part of Nigeria’s energy journey. Together with our partners, we have helped develop major energy infrastructure, supported Nigerian businesses, invested in talent, and contributed to economic development. Bonga remains a powerful example of what technology, partnership and Nigerian capability can achieve in deepwater operations. Today, that story continues through Bonga North.”
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Issuing a clarion call for action by all stakeholders, he added: “The world is not standing still. Capital is moving, technology is advancing and competition is intensifying. The countries that attract investment tomorrow are those that improve competitiveness today. Nigeria has begun that journey. Our task is to sustain the momentum and translate reform into projects, projects into growth, and growth into shared prosperity.”
The conference, the 4th in the series had at its theme; “Securing Nigeria’s Energy Future: Policy Reform, Capital Mobilisation, and Pathways to a Sustainable Power and Energy Market” and was attended by top government officials, industry captains, energy professionals, and students.
Lagos State Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat represented Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu as the guest of honour. SNEPCo was a principal sponsor of the Africa Energy Conference (AEC) and mounted a well-received exhibition on its deepwater operations and social investments across Nigeria.





