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Report Warns Oil Below $80 Per Barrel Puts Nigeria’s 2026 Budget at Risk, Projects N750/Litre Fuel Price

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Nigeria faces a direct fiscal alarm bell in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 as crude oil price dips below $80 per barrel amid fragile global stability, with the Society of Energy Editors (SEE) warning that oil below $80 would be a stress test the country’s economy cannot afford to misread.

In its Q3 2026 Energy & Extractives Outlook released Wednesday, SEE described the current global energy market as a “Tehran-Tel Aviv Paradox”.

The report projected that if crude oil remained below $80, the pump prices of petrol would oscillate between N750 and N850 per litre, depending on the exchange rate window.

It explained that the United States- Iran hostilities had paused, giving a temporary floor to prices, but that Israel’s sustained engagement in Lebanon was keeping a geopolitical risk premium alive.

For Nigeria, the report said the dip below $80 per barrel threatened budget benchmarks and exposed deep structural fragility across downstream, upstream, power, and mining sectors.

ALSO READ: NNPC Ltd Posts N462b PAT for May

It said the downstream sector entered Q3, 2026 at a crossroads, noting that domestic refining led by Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitated Port Harcourt facility was now running at improved capacity, strengthening the case for full deregulation.

However, SEE warned of a “growing paradox: operational autonomy without price freedom.”

It argued that while supply bottlenecks have eased, the pump prices of petrol have not decoupled from crude volatility.

“If Brent remains sub-$80, we anticipate a grudging, non-linear moderation in pump prices, potentially oscillating between N750 and N850 per litre depending on the exchange rate window,” the report stated.

The real flashpoint, SEE warned, would be the dollar-denominated cost within the domestic chain.

“We project a flashpoint between marketers insisting on mirroring import parity prices and regulators demanding volume over margin. The era of improved domestic refining is here, but the consumer is yet to feel the insulating benefits of a truly naira-based petroleum market”, it noted.

SEE projected that if security improved, oil production would consolidate around 1.75 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates.

However, the report said new volumes would depend on brownfield infill drilling, not deepwater mega-projects, insisting that global capital was fleeing fossil fuels.

It stated that independent producers would increase production through short-cycle tie-backs under the Petroleum Industry Act’s (PIA) improved fiscal terms.

But the report argued that the additional output would be “insufficient to offset the structural decline in maturing basins unless security costs are tamed.”

The report noted that the bigger constraint was finance, stressing that the international commercial banks and development finance institutions were now pricing Nigerian upstream debt at a ‘Violence-Adjusted Cost of Capital’.

According to the report, the banks have projected that the cost of a five-year senior secured reserve-based lending facility for a Nigerian independent will hover between 12 and 15 per cent per annum in hard currency, “assuming it is available at all.”

With risk rising, SEE observed that indigenous players were being forced into “opaque, high-yield private credit funds or forced to pre-sell crude at steep discounts to commodity traders.”

SEE also flagged a security-investment doom loop, explaining that as oil prices dip, government revenue to fund surveillance contracts and the military Joint Task Force tightens.

“A liquidity crisis in the protective architecture, just as economic hardship on the waterways rises, is a recipe for a spike in illegal bunkering and sabotage”, the report said.

The group urged a shift from a kinetic model to a community-led, technology-driven “Pipeline Protection 2.0” framework co-financed by operators to insulate it from federal budget cycles.

The report, however, concluded that the oil below $80 was a manageable stress test, not a catastrophe, provided the macro-economic managers would treat it as a permanent shift rather than a transient dip.

“Q3 2026 will be defined by the tension between operational progress and financial fragility. The energy sector is supplying the molecules; the question remains whether the economic framework can absorb them. In mining, the question is even sharper: without territorial security, the subsurface remains a curse rather than a treasury”, it added.

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How NNPC Remitted N7.9tn to Federation Account in Seven Months Despite Oil Output Drop

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) remitted N7.91tn to the Federation Account between January and July 2026, despite a decline in crude oil and condensate production in July.

The company disclosed this in its July 2026 operational and financial performance report released on Wednesday.

According to the report, NNPC recorded N3.09tn in revenue and N279bn in profit after tax during the period under review.

SEE MORE: Ogoni Committee Washes Hands Off Contracts, 40 NNPC Ltd’s Job Slots

However, crude oil and condensate production fell from 1.73 million barrels per day in May to 1.72 million barrels per day in June, before dropping further to 1.68 million barrels per day in July.

NNPC attributed the July decline to operational disruptions affecting several of its assets.

“July crude oil production was affected by a combination of operational disruptions across several assets, including facility outages, equipment unavailability, pipeline incidents, and production constraints,” the company stated.

The decline in output was also reflected in crude oil and condensate sales, which fell to 22.53 million barrels in July from 28.23 million barrels in June.

The July sales comprised 21.53 million barrels of crude oil and one million barrels of condensate.

NNPC said it was implementing measures to reverse the decline and improve production, including preventive maintenance programmes aimed at sustaining facility uptime and reducing unplanned downtime.

“Production improvement efforts will focus on sustaining high facility uptime through effective preventive maintenance programmes and minimizing unplanned downtime,” the company stated.

It added that the measures would include optimising export operations at FEPL and Nembe EP, developing incremental production opportunities and strengthening operational reliability across key facilities.

“Additional measures include the activation of tandem offloading operations at Akpo and Erha to enhance export flexibility and the restoration of barging operations at Obodo to improve production evacuation and sustain output,” NNPC added.

On gas infrastructure, the company reported 100 per cent availability of its upstream pipeline network.

NNPC also said pre-commissioning activities had been completed on the River Niger Crossing section of the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben gas pipeline, with first gas initially targeted for August 2026.

On the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline, the company said construction and installation works were at an advanced stage to facilitate early gas delivery to Abuja in 2026.

The AKK pipeline recorded 95 per cent availability, while NNPC Retail’s petrol stations recorded 52 per cent availability, with distribution varying across regions.

Meanwhile, natural gas production stood at 7.49 billion standard cubic feet per day, while gas sales were 4.6 billion standard cubic feet per day.

NNPC, however, cautioned that the figures contained in the report remained provisional and subject to reconciliation with relevant stakeholders.

“All production, sales and financial figures are provisional and subject to reconciliation with relevant stakeholders,” the company stated.

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2027: Donald Duke Reveals Why He Wants to Be Nigeria’s President

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Donald Duke

The presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, has explained that his decision to contest the 2027 presidential election is driven by his desire to address Nigeria’s longstanding leadership challenges and transform the country’s economy.

Duke, a former governor of Cross River State, made the declaration while speaking with journalists in Abuja on Tuesday.

He lamented what he described as a persistent leadership deficiency in Nigeria since the return to democratic rule in 1979, arguing that successive administrations had failed to provide the country with the vision required to achieve meaningful development.

According to him, Nigeria could have performed significantly better if the country had been led by individuals with clearly articulated visions for governance.

READ MORE:JUST IN: Former Cross River Gov Donald Duke Defects To ADC

“There has been frustration in the political system since the return to democracy. In reality, we could have done better than what we have if we had the right leadership.

“Since the return to democratic rule, there have been successive governments but there has not been one with leadership vision.

“That is why I have put up myself in order to provide the needed leadership to change the political question and provide the required development and growth.

“We in the political system do not need mudslinging but to tell Nigerians what we can do for the country.”

Duke said many previous leaders assumed office without a clearly defined understanding of what they intended to achieve, maintaining that the absence of an articulated national vision had contributed to repeated failures in governance.

Duke backs opposition unity

The PRP candidate also said the opposition could defeat the incumbent administration in 2027 if political parties and presidential contenders were willing to unite behind the strongest candidate.

He argued that the opposition must put aside personal ambitions and determine who among them has the capacity to lead a united political front.

Duke warned that failure to achieve such unity could make it easier for the President Bola Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC) to retain power in 2027.

He maintained that even the APC’s control of more than 30 states would not guarantee victory if opposition parties successfully united around a common objective.
Duke backs fuel subsidy

On the economy, Duke expressed support for subsidising petroleum products, arguing that Nigeria should not use its natural resources in a way that further burdens citizens.

He criticised the removal of fuel subsidy and the subsequent pricing of petroleum products at rates linked to international market conditions, saying Nigerians should benefit from the resources available in their country.

The former governor also backed the establishment of state police, arguing that the measure had become necessary given the country’s security challenges and the rise in poverty-related crimes.

Student loans need jobs, says Duke
Duke described the government’s student loan scheme as a positive initiative but warned that it would not achieve its intended purpose without sufficient employment opportunities for beneficiaries.

He argued that graduates would struggle to repay their loans if the government failed to introduce policies capable of creating jobs and expanding economic opportunities.

He also criticised the relationship between government spending and revenue generation, calling for stronger coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate wealth creation and reduce poverty.

Atiku promises direct payment to LGs
Meanwhile, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, has pledged that his administration would ensure that federal allocations meant for local government councils are paid directly to them if he wins the 2027 presidential election.

Atiku, in a statement issued by his spokesperson, Kenneth Okonkwo, said his government would uphold the rule of law and guarantee the constitutional independence of all tiers of government, including local councils.

He referenced the Supreme Court’s July 2024 judgment on local government financial autonomy, accusing the Tinubu administration of failing to fully enforce the ruling.

Atiku alleged that political considerations ahead of the 2027 election were influencing the handling of local government funds.

“My administration will respect court judgments, protect local government autonomy, ensure that public funds reach the people for whom they are meant, and restore true federalism,” he said.

According to him, direct funding of local governments would bring development closer to citizens, reduce poverty at the grassroots and strengthen the capacity of local authorities to tackle crimes and terrorism.

The former Vice President further alleged that state governors were being allowed to retain control over local government funds in exchange for political support for Tinubu’s re-election bid.

“This is not the Nigeria we should accept,” Atiku stated.

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IPPG: 150 African Oil, Gas Projects Stalled

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Iran to return oil output to pre-sanctions level

More than 150 essential oil and gas projects have stalled across Africa amid declining investment in the continent’s energy sector, Chairman of the Independent Petroleum Producers Group (IPPG), Adegbite Falade, has disclosed.

He made the disclosure in Accra, Ghana, on Tuesday, at the Africa Oil Week (AOW) 2026.

Falade cautioned that the investment shortfall was occurring at a critical time when millions of Africans remain without reliable access to energy.

He said the stalled projects posed a threat to jobs, energy security and economic transformation, while depriving African economies of billions of dollars in potential revenue and industrialisation opportunities.

READ ALSO: DPRP Uses Court to Restrain NMDPRA from Meddlesomeness

According to him, Africa attracted only about two per cent of global renewable energy investment last year, even as capital continues to elude its oil and gas industry.

Falade said the situation was particularly troubling given the continent’s vast hydrocarbon resources, with 125 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 620 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves.

“Africa is resource rich and energy poor. The continent has 125 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 620 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas,” he said.

He also highlighted what he described as an imbalance in the global climate debate, noting that Africa accounts for approximately 18 per cent of the world’s population but less than four per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

“This capital retreat comes at a precarious moment for a continent faced with energy poverty despite accounting for less than three per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions,” Falade said.

The IPPG chairman called on African governments to urgently restore investor confidence by providing stable fiscal terms, de-risking projects and accelerating regulatory approvals to bring the stalled developments back on stream.

He also advocated greater participation by indigenous operators, citing Nigeria’s experience as evidence of what deliberate policies and access to capital could achieve.

He noted that three decades ago, indigenous operators in Nigeria had three per cent of participation in the country’s oil and gas industry and the significant growth achieved since then.

Falade urged African countries to pursue an energy transition that takes account of the continent’s development needs, arguing that cleaner energy deployment should not prevent countries from using their abundant natural gas resources to address energy poverty.

“We can pursue cleaner energy while still using our gas to power industries, homes, and businesses across the continent,” he said.

He therefore called for increased investment and faster development of Africa’s oil and gas resources, stressing that the continent must leverage its natural wealth to expand energy access, create jobs and drive economic transformation.

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