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Report Warns Oil Below $80 Per Barrel Puts Nigeria’s 2026 Budget at Risk, Projects N750/Litre Fuel Price

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Nigeria faces a direct fiscal alarm bell in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 as crude oil price dips below $80 per barrel amid fragile global stability, with the Society of Energy Editors (SEE) warning that oil below $80 would be a stress test the country’s economy cannot afford to misread.

In its Q3 2026 Energy & Extractives Outlook released Wednesday, SEE described the current global energy market as a “Tehran-Tel Aviv Paradox”.

The report projected that if crude oil remained below $80, the pump prices of petrol would oscillate between N750 and N850 per litre, depending on the exchange rate window.

It explained that the United States- Iran hostilities had paused, giving a temporary floor to prices, but that Israel’s sustained engagement in Lebanon was keeping a geopolitical risk premium alive.

For Nigeria, the report said the dip below $80 per barrel threatened budget benchmarks and exposed deep structural fragility across downstream, upstream, power, and mining sectors.

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It said the downstream sector entered Q3, 2026 at a crossroads, noting that domestic refining led by Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitated Port Harcourt facility was now running at improved capacity, strengthening the case for full deregulation.

However, SEE warned of a “growing paradox: operational autonomy without price freedom.”

It argued that while supply bottlenecks have eased, the pump prices of petrol have not decoupled from crude volatility.

“If Brent remains sub-$80, we anticipate a grudging, non-linear moderation in pump prices, potentially oscillating between N750 and N850 per litre depending on the exchange rate window,” the report stated.

The real flashpoint, SEE warned, would be the dollar-denominated cost within the domestic chain.

“We project a flashpoint between marketers insisting on mirroring import parity prices and regulators demanding volume over margin. The era of improved domestic refining is here, but the consumer is yet to feel the insulating benefits of a truly naira-based petroleum market”, it noted.

SEE projected that if security improved, oil production would consolidate around 1.75 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates.

However, the report said new volumes would depend on brownfield infill drilling, not deepwater mega-projects, insisting that global capital was fleeing fossil fuels.

It stated that independent producers would increase production through short-cycle tie-backs under the Petroleum Industry Act’s (PIA) improved fiscal terms.

But the report argued that the additional output would be “insufficient to offset the structural decline in maturing basins unless security costs are tamed.”

The report noted that the bigger constraint was finance, stressing that the international commercial banks and development finance institutions were now pricing Nigerian upstream debt at a ‘Violence-Adjusted Cost of Capital’.

According to the report, the banks have projected that the cost of a five-year senior secured reserve-based lending facility for a Nigerian independent will hover between 12 and 15 per cent per annum in hard currency, “assuming it is available at all.”

With risk rising, SEE observed that indigenous players were being forced into “opaque, high-yield private credit funds or forced to pre-sell crude at steep discounts to commodity traders.”

SEE also flagged a security-investment doom loop, explaining that as oil prices dip, government revenue to fund surveillance contracts and the military Joint Task Force tightens.

“A liquidity crisis in the protective architecture, just as economic hardship on the waterways rises, is a recipe for a spike in illegal bunkering and sabotage”, the report said.

The group urged a shift from a kinetic model to a community-led, technology-driven “Pipeline Protection 2.0” framework co-financed by operators to insulate it from federal budget cycles.

The report, however, concluded that the oil below $80 was a manageable stress test, not a catastrophe, provided the macro-economic managers would treat it as a permanent shift rather than a transient dip.

“Q3 2026 will be defined by the tension between operational progress and financial fragility. The energy sector is supplying the molecules; the question remains whether the economic framework can absorb them. In mining, the question is even sharper: without territorial security, the subsurface remains a curse rather than a treasury”, it added.

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‘Borrowed Funds Not Spent Cannot Be Counted as Debt Left Behind’ – Peter Obi

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The presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) for the 2027 election, Peter Obi, has challenged the way government borrowing is accounted for, arguing that funds borrowed but not actually drawn down should not be treated as debt left behind by an administration.

Obi made the remarks during an interview on Arise TV on Thursday while explaining his position on borrowing during his tenure as governor of Anambra State.

“That is a wrong public accounting. Even if I had gone to bank and borrowed money, but I did not spend the money, you cannot call it debt I left,” Obi said.

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He illustrated his argument with a hypothetical ₦10 billion loan facility, saying that where only ₦500 million was actually drawn, it would be inaccurate to describe the entire ₦10 billion as money owed.

“They gave me a loan of 10 billion Naira, and Charles, I only drew down 500 million. You cannot say I’m owing 10 billion, because you know the amount,” he said.

The NDC candidate said such a practice would amount to improper public-sector accounting.

“That’s why I said it is not proper public sector accounting,” Obi said.

He also cited the former Director-General of the Debt Management Office, Abraham Nwankwo, whom he said served for 10 years, in support of his claim about his borrowing record as Anambra governor.

Obi recalled that Nwankwo invited him to his send-off ceremony and publicly explained why he had selected Obi as chairman of the event.

“He announced it to everybody in that party that the reason why he made me chairman is because I was the only governor in Nigeria who never came to his office for approval to borrow money,” Obi said.

Anambra Debt Controversy

Obi’s comments come against the backdrop of continuing debate over the debt profile he left behind after serving as Anambra State governor from 2006 to 2013.

The former governor has consistently defended his administration’s financial record, while figures and claims about Anambra’s debt during and after his tenure have generated public debate.

 

 

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Kainji–Birnin Kebbi Power Line: TCN Begins Final Phase of Restoration

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The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has commenced the final phase of restoration works on the 330kV Kainji–Birnin Kebbi Transmission Line following the recent collapse of Tower T367 along the line corridor.

TCN, in an update issued on Wednesday, said significant progress had been recorded at the affected location in Yauri, where restoration activities are ongoing.

ALSO READ: TCN Restores 330kV Shiroro–Mando Line, Strengthens Power Supply to Kaduna

According to the company, the collapsed transmission tower has now been completely dismantled and decommissioned, while the conductors and skywire have been properly aligned and prepared for the next stage of the restoration process.

TCN also disclosed that an Emergency Restoration System (ERS) tower has been moved to the site and is ready for installation.

The company said the installation would be followed by cable stringing and other associated works towards the restoration of the affected transmission line.

“Our engineers and technical personnel remain actively engaged at the site and are working hard to ensure a quick completion and restoration of the line.”

TCN said it remained committed to restoring normal bulk transmission as soon as possible and appealed to electricity consumers and other stakeholders affected by the incident for patience and understanding.

“TCN appreciates the patience and understanding of electricity consumers and other stakeholders affected by the incident and assures the public that every effort is being made to restore the line and consequently, normal bulk transmission as soon as possible.”

 

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Tanker Drivers Suspend Strike after FG Intervention

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The National Union of Edible Oil Tanker Drivers of Nigeria (NUEOTDN) has suspended its planned nationwide strike scheduled to begin Wednesday following Federal Government intervention in its dispute with operators in the edible oil industry.

The last-minute suspension averted a potential disruption in the transportation and distribution of edible oil across the country, with the union directing members to maintain normal operations while negotiations continue.

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NUEOTDN President, Ilias Aperun, announced the decision in a statement dated September 22, saying interventions by President Bola Tinubu and the Department of State Services (DSS) had opened discussions towards resolving the issues that prompted the planned industrial action.

“The planned industrial action scheduled to commence today, 23rd September 2026, has been suspended.”

Aperun said the union decided to give the government intervention time to produce results in the interest of economic stability and protection of the edible oil supply chain.

“In the interest of peace, national economic stability and the protection of the edible oil supply chain, the Union has decided to suspend the planned action and give room for the ongoing government intervention,” he said.

The union consequently directed its members and other stakeholders to halt preparations for the strike and continue normal operations pending further directives.

Aperun said discussions aimed at resolving the dispute were already underway, adding that the union remained committed to protecting the welfare and legitimate interests of its members without jeopardising the supply of edible oil.

“The NUEOTDN remains committed to the protection of the public health of the masses, welfare and legitimate interests of its comrades, while also supporting a peaceful and sustainable resolution of the issues at stake,” he said.

He urged stakeholders in the industry to cooperate with the ongoing negotiations, saying constructive engagement remained necessary to resolve the issues raised by the tanker drivers.

The union expressed appreciation to the Federal Government for its intervention and urged members to remain calm while awaiting the outcome of the discussions.

Aperun said further developments would be communicated as negotiations progressed.

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