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Report Warns Oil Below $80 Per Barrel Puts Nigeria’s 2026 Budget at Risk, Projects N750/Litre Fuel Price

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Nigeria faces a direct fiscal alarm bell in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026 as crude oil price dips below $80 per barrel amid fragile global stability, with the Society of Energy Editors (SEE) warning that oil below $80 would be a stress test the country’s economy cannot afford to misread.

In its Q3 2026 Energy & Extractives Outlook released Wednesday, SEE described the current global energy market as a “Tehran-Tel Aviv Paradox”.

The report projected that if crude oil remained below $80, the pump prices of petrol would oscillate between N750 and N850 per litre, depending on the exchange rate window.

It explained that the United States- Iran hostilities had paused, giving a temporary floor to prices, but that Israel’s sustained engagement in Lebanon was keeping a geopolitical risk premium alive.

For Nigeria, the report said the dip below $80 per barrel threatened budget benchmarks and exposed deep structural fragility across downstream, upstream, power, and mining sectors.

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It said the downstream sector entered Q3, 2026 at a crossroads, noting that domestic refining led by Dangote Refinery and the rehabilitated Port Harcourt facility was now running at improved capacity, strengthening the case for full deregulation.

However, SEE warned of a “growing paradox: operational autonomy without price freedom.”

It argued that while supply bottlenecks have eased, the pump prices of petrol have not decoupled from crude volatility.

“If Brent remains sub-$80, we anticipate a grudging, non-linear moderation in pump prices, potentially oscillating between N750 and N850 per litre depending on the exchange rate window,” the report stated.

The real flashpoint, SEE warned, would be the dollar-denominated cost within the domestic chain.

“We project a flashpoint between marketers insisting on mirroring import parity prices and regulators demanding volume over margin. The era of improved domestic refining is here, but the consumer is yet to feel the insulating benefits of a truly naira-based petroleum market”, it noted.

SEE projected that if security improved, oil production would consolidate around 1.75 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates.

However, the report said new volumes would depend on brownfield infill drilling, not deepwater mega-projects, insisting that global capital was fleeing fossil fuels.

It stated that independent producers would increase production through short-cycle tie-backs under the Petroleum Industry Act’s (PIA) improved fiscal terms.

But the report argued that the additional output would be “insufficient to offset the structural decline in maturing basins unless security costs are tamed.”

The report noted that the bigger constraint was finance, stressing that the international commercial banks and development finance institutions were now pricing Nigerian upstream debt at a ‘Violence-Adjusted Cost of Capital’.

According to the report, the banks have projected that the cost of a five-year senior secured reserve-based lending facility for a Nigerian independent will hover between 12 and 15 per cent per annum in hard currency, “assuming it is available at all.”

With risk rising, SEE observed that indigenous players were being forced into “opaque, high-yield private credit funds or forced to pre-sell crude at steep discounts to commodity traders.”

SEE also flagged a security-investment doom loop, explaining that as oil prices dip, government revenue to fund surveillance contracts and the military Joint Task Force tightens.

“A liquidity crisis in the protective architecture, just as economic hardship on the waterways rises, is a recipe for a spike in illegal bunkering and sabotage”, the report said.

The group urged a shift from a kinetic model to a community-led, technology-driven “Pipeline Protection 2.0” framework co-financed by operators to insulate it from federal budget cycles.

The report, however, concluded that the oil below $80 was a manageable stress test, not a catastrophe, provided the macro-economic managers would treat it as a permanent shift rather than a transient dip.

“Q3 2026 will be defined by the tension between operational progress and financial fragility. The energy sector is supplying the molecules; the question remains whether the economic framework can absorb them. In mining, the question is even sharper: without territorial security, the subsurface remains a curse rather than a treasury”, it added.

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Sahara Group Drives Africa’s Energy Future with Asharami Square 3.0

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Sahara Group is convening policymakers, industry leaders, investors, academia, and media professionals to advance practical solutions for Africa’s evolving energy landscape.

Scheduled for Wednesday, July 22, 2026, in Lagos, this year’s Asharami Square, a flagship thought leadership platform, is themed “Energising Africa’s Future: Legacy, Impact, and Transformation.”

The platform will spotlight the ideas, partnerships, and policy frameworks required to accelerate sustainable energy development across the continent.

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Building on the success of previous editions, Asharami Square 3.0 will examine how collaboration across government, industry, finance, and the media can unlock investment, strengthen infrastructure, and expand access while supporting Africa’s energy transition.

According to Bethel Obioma, Head, Corporate Communications, Sahara Group, the platform reflects Sahara Group’s commitment to driving impactful conversations that translate into real outcomes.

“Africa’s energy future will be shaped by the strength of our partnerships and our ability to turn dialogue into action. Asharami Square continues to provide a platform for convening diverse perspectives, advancing informed discourse, and driving the decisions that will influence policy, investment, and long-term development across the continent.

As we look Beyond XXX, our focus remains on investing in the ideas, partnerships, and platforms that will help shape a sustainable energy future for Africa.”

Also speaking, Ejiro Gray, Director, Governance and Sustainability, Sahara Group, emphasised the importance of grounding energy conversations in context and practical realities.

“Africa’s energy transition must be defined by solutions that reflect our unique realities. Asharami Square plays a critical role in bridging technical expertise and public understanding, ensuring that conversations around energy, sustainability, and development are anchored in evidence, context, and impact.

Through initiatives like Asharami Square, we continue to advance our Beyond XXX philosophy by supporting credible dialogue and strengthening the ecosystems that drive sustainable progress.”

The event will feature a keynote address by Sadiq Wanka, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Power Infrastructure, alongside a high-level panel including Professor Abigail Ndisika, Director, Institute of Continuing Education (ICE), University of Lagos; Temitope George, CEO, Lagos State Electricity Regulatory Commission (LASERC); Adebiyi Olusolape, Associate Editor, Africa, Argus Media; and Kemi Awodein, Managing Director, Investment Banking, Chapel Hill Denham.

A key highlight of this year’s programme will be the unveiling of the Asharami Square Energy Reporting Fellowship Judging Panel, reinforcing Sahara Group’s commitment to strengthening credible, solutions-focused journalism that deepens public understanding of Africa’s energy transition.

Since its maiden edition in 2024, Asharami Square has facilitated informed dialogue and effective media advocacy to enhance energy transition and sustainability in Africa.

Through the platform and the newly launched Asharami Energy Reporting Fellowship, Sahara Group continues to advance its Beyond XXX vision by investing in the ideas, people, and platforms that will help shape Africa’s energy future, while reinforcing its commitment to bringing energy to life responsibly.

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IPMAN Kicks as Importers Hike Prices

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Critical stakeholders are lamenting that fuel importers, licensed by the Nigerian government, are selling imported premium motor spirit (PMS) also known as petrol around N200 per litre, above what local refiner, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) is selling.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) noted that the importers including Matrix, AA Rano, Hayden among others have started pricing imported petrol significantly above the rates offered by the DPRP, raising concerns over the effectiveness of the government’s import licensing policy.

IPMAN’s National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, said independent marketers had expected the import licences to serve as a check on domestic fuel pricing but are now shocked to find out that the policy had failed to deliver the desired outcome.

“The independent marketers of Nigeria have looked at the price volatility, the issue of the import license, the issue of sales of petroleum products and dollar, and holistically I will want to use the opportunity to urge the federal government to look into this thing transparently through NMDPRA, who is the authority of the industry,” he said.

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According to him, the recent import licences issued to marketers have not helped reduce fuel prices as anticipated.

“The recent import licenses, which are termed to be used as a guiding principle or a check to domestic petroleum products being refined here in Nigeria, is not yielding the results as was expected by the independent marketers,” he stated.

Ukadike expressed surprise that some importers were reportedly selling imported petrol at about N1,350 per litre, despite lower prices from the DPRP.

“We were shocked, even as I am talking to you now, that the licenses that have been given to AA Rano, Matrix and all the rest of them to be able to import petroleum products are trying to peg the price of petroleum products at N1,350, which is far, far distant from what Dangote has been selling to us,” he said.

He further questioned the quality and pricing of imported products, insisting that the policy was undermining the purpose for which the licences were granted.

“The essence of NNPC or NMDPRA or the federal government opening up this import license is also to checkmate the domestic price of petroleum products, whereas where we find out that these products are being brought into this country, one, their qualities are questionable, two, their prices are higher,” Ukadike added.

The IPMAN spokesman also warned that continued fuel importation at higher prices was increasing pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, with the naira approaching N1,400 to the US dollar.

He argued that imported petroleum products priced using the international PLATTS benchmark were about 20 percent more expensive than products supplied by the DPRP, making imports less competitive.

Ukadike urged the Federal Government to sustain the sale of crude oil to the Dangote refinery in naira, saying the arrangement would help stabilise domestic fuel prices, reduce demand for foreign exchange and ease pressure on the local currency.

He also cautioned against what he described as the indiscriminate issuance of import licences, warning that such a policy could ultimately lead to higher pump prices for consumers instead of promoting competition.

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Sahara Opens Kaduna, Jigawa Recycling Hubs

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AOW 2021: Sahara Group advocates measured transition in Africa’s upstream sector

The Sahara Group Foundation (SGF) has expanded its waste management network and recycling infrastructure in Northern Nigeria with the commissioning of two Sahara Go Recycling hubs in Jigawa and Kaduna States.

This was detailed in a statement from the Foundation on Sunday, which had it that the hubs, located at Gidan Hakimi in Shuwarin Local Government Area of Jigawa State and Asharami Retail Station, Badiko, Kaduna South Local Government Area of Kaduna State, are the Foundation’s 21st and 22nd recycling hubs nationwide and its second and third in Northern Nigeria.

According to a statement, the Jigawa hub was delivered with the support of the King’s Council, Shuwarin, while the Kaduna hub was established in collaboration with Asharami Synergy.

The Foundation said the initiative is designed to convert waste into income-generating opportunities for households. The Director of Sahara Group Foundation, Chidilim Menakaya, said the hubs demonstrate the organisation’s approach to expanding practical sustainability initiatives through partnerships.

“By partnering with institutions and sister companies that understand local needs and realities, we are building a recycling ecosystem that communities can own, sustain, and benefit from over the long term,” she said.

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The commissioning ceremonies were attended by members of the King’s Council, the Jigawa State Commissioner for Environment, Dr Nura Doka, the Chairman of Shuwarin Local Government Area, Abdulhamid Balago, the vice chairman, community leaders and residents in Jigawa, as well as Asharami Synergy’s leadership and the Filling Station Manager in Kaduna.

Speaking at the Jigawa event, Alhaji Bashir Abdullahi, Sarkin Gabas and Hakimin Shuwarin, said the facility addresses a longstanding waste management challenge in the community.

“For years, our people have had no organised way to deal with waste beyond burning or dumping it by the roadside,” he said. “This hub gives our young people and our women a way to earn from something that used to just pollute our surroundings.”

At the Kaduna event, the Filling Station Manager of Asharami Retail Station, Badiko, Aliyu Abdullahi Mabai, said the recycling hub complements the station’s operations.

“We are glad to host this recycling hub on our premises,” he said. “It gives our customers and neighbours a simple way to recycle, and fits with what Asharami Synergy stands for as a responsible business.”

The Foundation also disclosed plans to commission another recycling hub in Kano State in the coming weeks following a recent engagement with the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, who expressed interest in the initiative.

According to the Foundation, Sahara Go Recycling has supported the recycling of more than 1,000 tonnes of materials since its launch and has directly or indirectly impacted more than 2,000 livelihoods nationwide.

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