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Shipping Costs Fuel Global Inflation – IMF

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Rising global shipping costs have manifested on global inflationary trends.

This is the assertion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its recent report, titled, “the costs of misreading inflation.”

The Washington based lender, noted that as at October 2021, indicators of the cost of shipping containers by maritime freight had increased by over 600 percent as against their pre-pandemic levels, while the cost of shipping bulk commodities by sea had more than tripled.

The report traced the upward swing of freight charges to increased demand for sea shipment of intermediate inputs (such as energy and raw materials) in the aftermath of the COVID-19 lockdowns.

It also pointed out that shipping capacity was negatively impacted by logistical hurdles and bottlenecks related to pandemic disruptions and shortages of container equipment.

Another contributing factor, the report highlighted, was shortage of skilled workers at ports around the world, which is traceable to workers having to self-isolate after testing positive for COVID-19.

Still on health grounds, it noted that public health restrictions prevented truck drivers and ship crews from crossing borders.

In part, the report read, “While skyrocketing food and energy prices were making headlines, the surge in shipping costs seemed to pass largely under the radar, despite its potential inflationary impact.

“Our analysis suggests that a doubling of shipping costs causes inflation to increase by roughly 0.7 percentage points.

“Given the actual increase in global shipping costs during 2021, the IMF estimates that the impact on inflation in 2022 was more than 2 percentage points—a huge effect that few central banks would dismiss.”

IMF also pointed out that its study showed that the effect of the shipping cost shock on inflation was longer-lasting than the effects of commodity price shocks, peaking after about a year and lasting up to 18 months.

“By contrast, the impact of global oil prices on consumer price inflation peaks after only two months.

“Of course, this average result varies across economies and regions, and it depends on monetary policy frameworks, particularly central banks’ track record of stabilising prices and anchoring expectations, as well as on more structural features such as geography (which affects an economy’s remoteness and dependence on goods shipped by sea).

“Our evidence suggests that the impacts of surging shipping costs are likely to be larger and more persistent in countries with less-anchored inflation expectations and weaker monetary policy frameworks. Lower-income countries and some emerging market economies may be more at risk than advanced economies with established price stability credentials,” the report added.

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Savannah Energy Provides Unaudited FY 2024 Trading Updates 

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Savannah Energy Inks New Gas Sales Agreement with Notore

 

Savannah Energy has shared a trading update on its Nigerian operations and other markets in Africa, including up-to-date cash collections in its Nigerian business.

According to the update, made available on Thursday in Lagos, its gross production in Nigeria averaged 23.1 Kboepd for FY 2024, broadly in line with the prior year’s 23.6 Kboepd, of which 88% was gas (FY 2023: 91%).

On the update, CEO of Savannah Energy, Andrew Knott, said, “I am pleased to provide a FY trading update which demonstrates the continued progress we have made in 2024, a year which saw the highest level of cash collections ever recorded by our Nigerian business. 2025 is expected to be an exciting year for our Company: we have a large planned operational programme in Nigeria which is anticipated to enhance both our oil and gas production levels and capacity; we intend to progress our R3 East oil development project in Niger; we continue to pursue key acquisitions in the upstream oil and gas space; and we continue to seek to build our power business.

“Fundamentally, Savannah remains unequivocally an “AND” company, seeking to deliver strong performance both for the short AND long term across multiple fronts, and pursuing growth opportunities in both the hydrocarbon AND power sectors.”

The update It also shows that it generated a Total Income of US$393.6 million in 2024, compared to FY 2023’s US$289.8 million. This consists of Total Revenues of US$258.7 million and Other operating income of US$134.9 million.

The report also shows that Savannah’s FY 2024 Total Revenues were ahead of the previously issued financial guidance of greater than US$245 million, while FY 2024 financial guidance is reiterated for Operating expenses plus administrative expenses at ‘up to US$75 million’. The company expects its FY 2024 capital expenditure to come in lower than planned (previously guided at ‘up to US$50 million’) due to the phasing of spend.

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According to the update, Savannah’s cash collections in 2024 amounted to US$248.5 million, a slight increase from the US$206 million it received in 2023. The report further shows that its cash balances as at 31 December 2024 stood at US$32.6 million, compared to the 31 December 2023 figure of US$107.0 million.

The report shows that the company’s midstream subsidiary, Accugas Limited, had as at 31 December 2024 drawn down on its NGN332 billion of the NGN Transitional Facility, with the resulting funds being converted to US$, which, along with cash held, was used to partially prepay the existing Accugas US$ Facility, leaving a balance as at 31 December 2024 of approximately US$212.3 million.

The report also provided new updates on Accugas’ US$45 million Uquo Central Processing Facility (“Uquo CPF”) compression project in Nigeria, noting that its commissioning which will enable the expansion of gas production in the medium term is well underway.

The report highlighted the progress being made in the procurement process of long lead equipment in Nigeria for a potential two-well drilling campaign on the Uquo Field in H2 2025, with an additional gas development well expected to add up to 80 MMscfpd of supplemental production capacity and a potential exploration well targeting an Unrisked Gross gas initially in place (“GIIP”) of 154 Bscf (25.7 MMboe) of incremental gas resources.

The update shows that progress is also being made in the planned Savannah acquisition of Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Company Nigeria Limited, whose principal asset is a 49% non-operated interest in the Stubb Creek oil and gas field (“Stubb Creek”), with regulatory approval and completion being targeted in Q1 2025. Following the completion of the acquisition, Savannah intends to commence an expansion programme which is anticipated to increase Stubb Creek gross production from an average of 2.7 Kbopd in 2024 to approximately 4.7 Kbopd.

In Niger, Savannah continues to seek to progress its 35 MMstb (Gross 2C Resources) R3 East oil development in South-East Niger, while it continues to push for a potential alternative transaction structure to acquire a material stake in producing oil and gas assets in South Sudan as previously announced on 20 December 2024.

On the renewable energy front, the update shows that Savannah has up to 696 MW of renewable energy projects currently in motion, including the up to 250 MW Parc Eolien de la Tarka wind farm project in Niger and the up to 95 MW Bini a Warak hybrid hydroelectric and solar project in Cameroon. A firm believer in Africa’s transition to renewable energy, Savannah continues to target a portfolio of up to 2 GW+ of power projects in motion by the end of 2026.

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Nigeria Can Achieve 5.5% GDP Growth – NESG

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The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that the country has the potential to achieve a 5.5% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if critical policy reforms are sustained.

This was disclosed on Thursday during the launch of the NESG’s 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook report.

Speaking at the event, the Chief Economist and Director of Research & Development at NESG, Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, highlighted the need for more efficient policy implementation to unlock Nigeria’s economic potential.

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“We believe at the optimal level, if we embark on more efficient policy reforms, the Nigerian economy has the potential, the GDP to end up at 5.5 per cent, and we believe that this is achievable,” Omisakin stated.

 

 

 

 

 

 

More to follow………. 

 

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CBN Approves Release Of Nigerian FX Code

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CBN Prohibits Foreign Banks' Rep Offices From Banking Operations

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has announced the release of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange (FX) Code, a set of guidelines designed to promote ethical conduct among authorized dealers in the country’s FX market.

In a statement, the apex bank disclosed that the official launch of the Code would take place on Tuesday, January 28, 2025, at the CBN Head Office Auditorium in Abuja.

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“The Central Bank of Nigeria has approved the release of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange (FX) Code as a guideline to the banking industry to promote the ethical conduct of authorised dealers in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market,” the statement read.

The introduction of the FX Code is expected to enhance transparency, accountability, and professionalism within Nigeria’s foreign exchange ecosystem, aligning it with global best practices.

The event is anticipated to attract key stakeholders in the financial and banking sectors, as well as representatives from authorized FX-dealing institutions across the country.

 

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