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South Africa under fire for revisions to Trade Data

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CAPE TOWN – South Africa’s tax office is under fire from analysts from Citigroup Inc. to ETM Analytics after making unexpected data revisions that resulted in a halving of the trade deficit this year.

The South African Revenue Service said Thursday it’s adjusting trade numbers from 2010 to include exports and imports from four neighbouring countries that share a customs union with South Africa. The shortfall in the first nine months of the year was lowered to 64.5 billion rand ($6.3 billion) from 126.4 billion rand.

south africa stock exchangeInvestors have dumped South African assets this year, sending the rand down 17 percent against the dollar, as the government battles to contain twin deficits on its trade and fiscal balances, Bloomberg reports. The rand is listed by New York-based Morgan Stanley (MS) as one of the “fragile five” currencies along with those from India, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil because of their reliance on foreign capital inflows.

“The timing is a bit suspect,” Jana le Roux, an economist at ETM Analytics in Johannesburg, said by phone. “The finance minister has been talking down the notion that South Africa is part of the fragile five countries and with these more favourable trade numbers, they might say South Africa is not as fragile as the markets generally perceive it to be.”

Adrian Lackay, a spokesman for the Pretoria-based tax agency, said by phone today that “there is no other motive or purpose other than a statistical data one.” The changes were made to improve the accuracy of the figures, he said.

Rand Gains

The revisions, which were announced in an e-mailed statement after 7 p.m. local time yesterday, caused the rand to gain 1 percent against the dollar to a two-week high of 10.1776. The currency fell 0.3 percent to 10.2193 as of 12:11 p.m. in Johannesburg.

“Maybe the politicians are trying to make South Africa look a bit better than it actually is,” Christie Viljoen, an economist at NKC Independent Economists, said by phone from Paarl, outside Cape Town. “More complete data is always welcome, but the motives behind this and the process is not quite the standard we expect from SARS.”

The revisions come less than a month after Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan announced changes to the reporting of government fiscal data, which cut the budget deficit for the year through March 2013 to 4.2 percent of gross domestic product from a previously published figure of 5.1 percent.

The Reserve Bank said on its website yesterday that revisions to its current-account data will be less significant than those made by the revenue agency as it already includes estimates for trade with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. The current account has had a deficit for more than a decade, with the National Treasury estimating a shortfall of 6.5 percent of gross domestic product this year.

Avoiding Volatility

The deficit of 6.5 percent of GDP recorded in the second quarter may be closer to 5.3 percent after the revisions, Michael Kafe, an economist at Morgan Stanley in Johannesburg, said in an e-mailed note to clients yesterday. The central bank is due to publish the data in its Quarterly Bulletin on Dec. 3.

The large revisions to the trade data should have necessitated better communication from the revenue agency, said Gina Schoeman, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Johannesburg. While the agency may have wanted to avoid volatility in the rand by publishing the data in after-hours trading on local financial markets, there is still uncertainty over how the adjustments will affect other economic data, she said.

“Everyone is scurrying around to make sure that their calculations are correct and what the impact might be on the current account in the Quarterly Bulletin, and all that means is that the currency will remain volatile,” Schoeman said.

– BUSINESS DAY

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NGX Poised for Dollar Denominated DPRP IPO, Pioneer African Exchanges Linkage Project

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Dangote Refinery to Open Global Markets for Nigeria’s Downstream, Midstream Sectors

The Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) is set for the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP), which would have three billion ordinary shares on offer at $0.35 ​per share.

Chairman of the (NGX Group), Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, spoke of the IPO at the weekend during a visit to the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange (ADX), United Arab Emirates (UAE), adding that investor demand already exceeded $2 ​billion.

During a meeting with ADX’s board and management, Dr. Kwairanga said: “In Nigeria, we are also preparing for Dangote Refinery IPO which is seen as a continental project. Hopefully, the refinery, which is one of the biggest refineries in the world, will consider a dual listing in a global financial centre and we hope to have the active participation of Middle East investors with roadshows likely in the UAE.”

Quoting sources and a placement document, Reuters on Friday reported that the refinery is offering 3 billion ordinary shares at $0.35 ​per share, with investor demand already exceeding $2 ​billion.

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According to the report, investors must subscribe to a ⁠minimum of one million shares ($350,000), with additional ​purchases in multiples of 500,000 shares, adding that shares ​will be subject to a 365-day lock-up period.

Proceeds will be used for expansion and general corporate purposes as ​the refinery ramps up operations and strengthens ​its market position, the document showed.

During the meeting with the executives of the UAE-based exchange at the weekend, Kwairanga solicited collaborative efforts between the NGX and ADX, noting that both markets could explore knowledge sharing and training programmes.

He expressed delight that despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the Abu Dhabi Exchange and the UAE in general are working and peaceful and still a global destination of choice for business.

This, he observed, was a clear demonstration of the solid foundation laid by the founding fathers and the resilience, determination and focus of current leaders, adding that he had no doubt that the UAE will emerge stronger from present issues.

He said the NGX, which he chairs, and the Nigerian capital market have witnessed dramatic improvement in performance and operations over the last couple of years.

“Our index and market capitalisation has more than doubled in the last couple of years and we have been attracting renewed interest from investors from all parts of the globe, including the Middle East.

“I recall that our President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is Nigeria’s leader and chief marketer was in Abu Dhabi earlier this year to inform investors about ongoing economic reforms in Nigeria and why it is a very attractive destination for business,” Kwairanga said in a statement which he made personally signed.

The NGX Chairman said the exchange is also at the forefront of the African Exchanges Linkage Project, which will seamlessly link stock exchanges in several African countries for intra African trading and broaden the continent’s capital markets significantly.

“I believe during this visit, we will discuss areas for collaboration between our two exchanges in areas such as exchange of knowledge and training programmes, especially product development, cross border listings, openings in Nigeria for UAE quoted companies that may wish to expand. One product/platform that I believe we can work on is Tabadul.

“In Nigeria, we are also preparing for Dangote Refinery IPO which is seen as a continental project. Hopefully, the refinery, which is one of the biggest refineries in the world, will consider a dual listing in a global financial centre and we hope to have the active participation of Middle East investors with roadshows likely in the UAE,” he said.

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Ekpo Urges Entrepreneurs to Harness Nigeria’s Gas Resources for Economic Growth, General Wellbeing

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, has urged investors to unlock Nigeria’s vast natural gas resources to drive industrialisation, economic growth, job creation, and improved living standards for all Nigerians.

Ekpo made this appeal when he delivered a keynote address at the Association of Local Distributors of Gas (ALDG) Business Forum 2026 held in Abuja, where he spoke on the theme, ‘From Gas Abundance to Gas Access: Reassessing Nigeria’s Gas Distribution Imperatives’.

The minister who was represented by the Director of Midstream and Downstream at the ministry, Mrs. Ikenma Irene, told stakeholders that while Nigeria possessed over 209 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves—making it one of the most gas-endowed nations globally—the country’s true challenge was actually on how to ensure widespread access and utilisation of this strategic resource.

“Nigeria’s development will not be measured by the volume of gas beneath our soil, but by the extent to which that gas powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, and fuels sustainable economic growth,” the minister stated.

The minister commended ALDG for providing a strategic platform for collaboration and dialogue among key stakeholders, noting that the Forum intervened at a critical period in Nigeria’s energy transition journey.

He highlighted the federal government’s continued commitment under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu to deepen domestic gas utilisation through the Decade of Gas initiative and other transformative reforms designed to position Nigeria as a gas-powered economy.

The minister further noted that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 has strengthened the legal and regulatory framework necessary to attract investment, encourage private sector participation, expand infrastructure, and promote market efficiency throughout the gas sector.

ALSO READ: NNPC Ltd Uncovers Pipeline Vandals, Disguising as FG Taskforce

According to the minister, industrialised nations achieved economic advancement not merely because of resource endowment but because they built systems that enabled reliable energy access, industrial utilisation, and efficient markets.

He said, “Nigeria must now move decisively from gas abundance to gas accessibility.

“The success of this vision requires policy consistency, strong institutions, strategic investments, infrastructure expansion, security collaboration, and sustainable stakeholder partnerships.”

He urged stakeholders participating in the Forum to focus on developing practical, investment-driven solutions that expand gas access and deliver measurable benefits to Nigerians.

“As we deliberate today, let us remain focused on building a gas sector that delivers real value to Nigerians — one that powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, enhances energy security, and drives inclusive national development,” the minister stated.

“Let us move from gas abundance to gas access. Let us move from policy to implementation. Let us build a gas economy that works for all Nigerians,” he added.

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LPG Exports Ban Still in Force – FG

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GAS: New Temile/Hyundai LPG Vessel to bring down high cost of cooking gas in Nigeria-NCDMB

The ban on exportation of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is still in force despite rising prices and supply concerns across Nigeria.

An official with the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources made the clarification amid soaring prices and claims that locally produced cooking gas is being exported in foreign currency at the expense of domestic consumers.

Speculations had mounted amongst cooking gas retailers that some locally produced LPG was being sold to West African buyers because it was more profitable than supplying the domestic market.

The Chairman of the Liquefied Petroleum Gas Retailers Association, Ayobami Olarinoye, had told The PUNCH that the persistent scarcity and high prices of cooking gas were being worsened by limited product availability and alleged exports by a local refinery.

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Speaking exclusively with The PUNCH, the spokesman for the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Louis Ibah, dismissed the claim, saying the Federal Government’s restriction on LPG exports remains in place and is being enforced by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

“The ban on exports of LPG announced by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Dr Ekperikpe Ekpo, is still in place to stabilise prices and is strictly enforced by the NMDPRA,” Ibah told The PUNCH on Thursday.

Ibah emphasised that none of the local producers is allowed to export cooking gas, saying all resources are focused on making the product available for Nigerians. “It’s important to note that none of our producers are currently exporting the LPG meant for cooking in Nigeria, so all resources are focused on meeting our local needs,” he said.

The government’s position comes as concerns mount over soaring cooking gas prices and supply shortages across several parts of the country. Retailers and consumers have reported difficulties accessing supplies, while prices have continued to rise.
Describing the situation, Olarinoye said access to products had become increasingly difficult in recent weeks. “Getting the product has been excruciatingly difficult, and it is not readily available. Out of every 10 plants, only one or two would have products to sell to our members. Many of them, especially those situated in relatively residential areas, prefer to sell directly to end-users, while a few are still selling to retailers,” he stated.

He warned that prices were unlikely to decline in the immediate term unless there was an intervention. “The high price may remain the way it is until the situation changes positively,” the LPGAR boss noted.

Olarinoye called on the Federal Government to create incentives that would encourage more investors to enter the LPG market and boost local supply.

A source at the NMDPRA said the regulator was working with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other stakeholders to improve product availability. “The regulator is collaborating with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other key stakeholders to further boost LPG availability in the local market,” the source said.

It was also learnt that a new Seplat gas facility is expected to begin LPG supply to the domestic market by July. “This means we can expect a significant improvement in supply,” the source added.

The concerns come as the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, called for stronger efforts to improve domestic gas distribution and utilisation across the country.

Speaking at the Association of Local Distributors of Gas Business Forum 2026 in Abuja, Ekpo said Nigeria’s vast gas reserves would remain economically insignificant unless they are translated into accessible energy for households, industries and businesses.
Represented by the Director, Midstream and Downstream, Mrs Ikenma Irene, the minister delivered a keynote address titled, ‘From Gas Abundance to Gas Access: Reassessing Nigeria’s Gas Distribution Imperatives’.

He noted that Nigeria holds more than 209 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves but said the country’s development would depend on how effectively those resources are utilised.

“Nigeria’s development will not be measured by the volume of gas beneath our soil but by the extent to which that gas powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, and fuels sustainable economic growth,” the minister stated.

According to him, infrastructure gaps, weak distribution networks and limited market penetration remain major obstacles to increased domestic gas utilisation.

Ekpo reiterated the Federal Government’s commitment under President Bola Tinubu to accelerate domestic gas development through the Decade of Gas initiative and highlighted reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 aimed at improving investor confidence and encouraging private sector participation.

“Nigeria must now move decisively from gas abundance to gas accessibility. The success of this vision requires policy consistency, strong institutions, strategic investments, infrastructure expansion, security collaboration, and sustainable stakeholder partnerships,” he said.

He urged operators to focus on practical solutions that would expand infrastructure and distribution networks while ensuring affordable and reliable access to gas.
“Let us remain focused on building a gas sector that delivers real value to Nigerians—one that powers industries, supports households, creates jobs, enhances energy security, and drives inclusive national development,” he stated.

The minister concluded with a call for the implementation of gas sector reforms. “Let us move from gas abundance to gas access. Let us move from policy to implementation. Let us build a gas economy that works for all Nigerians,” he added.

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