Maritime
Strong China January trade data sparks cheers, doubts
BEIJING – China surprised markets with a thumping trade performance in January as import growth hit a six-month high, drawing some skepticism about the data but still allaying fears of a deepening economic malaise.
Analysts who had expected the long Lunar New Year holiday to drag on January’s trade warned that the figures may be inflated by fake trade transactions, where traders forge deals to sneak cash into the country past capital controls.
The value of China’s total exports climbed 10.6 percent in January from a year earlier, the Customs Administration said on Wednesday, more than five times market forecasts for a 2 percent rise.
The value of imports also jumped 10 percent from a year ago as China bought record volumes of iron ore, crude oil and copper. That lifted import growth to its highest level since July, handily beating predictions for a 3 percent gain.
The country’s trade surplus rose to $31.9 billion, well above forecasts of $23.7 billion and December’s $25.6 billion.
“We find this strong level of export growth puzzling,” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura. “It is unclear to what extent the strong export data reflects the true strength in the economy.”
A run of underwhelming economic data from China in recent weeks had steeled investors for another disappointment on Wednesday, as markets braced themselves for more signs that the world’s second-largest economy is losing momentum.
Fears that China may be slipping into a sharper-than-expected slowdown were believed to have fed a fierce selloff in global financial markets in January, with emerging markets hit particularly hard.
As the Lunar New Year falls in January in some years and in February in others, distorting trends early in the year, it may be months before investors see data which offers more reliable clues on the economy’s true direction.
Still, Asian investors welcomed the trade data and pushed stock prices higher for the fourth straight session. An optimistic economic outlook from new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen also cheered markets.
A resilient Chinese economy is good news for the world, particularly for major commodity exporters such as Australia.
Already the world’s biggest exporter, China may overtake the United States to be the world’s largest importer this year, HSBC Bank has predicted.
Economists expect China’s economy to grow at its slackest pace in 14 years this year at 7.4 percent. But even then, it is still expected to add twice as much demand to the world economy than the United States, HSBC said.
“Looking ahead, improving conditions in developed economies should continue to support Chinese exports,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Markets in Singapore.
SCEPTICISM
But not all economists were so upbeat. Many struggled to explain the unexpectedly buoyant trade figures, especially since Taiwan and South Korea both saw export sales slump in January, when the Lunar New Year holiday reduced the number of working days.
Four separate purchasing managers’ indices also showed China’s factory and services sectors sliding to multi-month or multi-year lows in January as export and domestic orders fell.
Even arguments that China’s export growth in January was artificially lifted by bogus trade deals were not supported by data at face value.
Export growth to Hong Kong, whose close proximity to China has made it a favorite destination for fake transactions in the past, fell 18 percent in January, compared to December’s 2.3 percent rise.
Analysts also found it hard to explain China’s record purchase of raw materials in January as underlying demand has not shown any convincing signs of a pick-up.
Indeed, the level of China’s iron ore stockpiles is at its highest in nearly 1-1/2 years, lending weight to arguments that the jump in imports was down to China stockpiling before the Lunar New Year holiday.
China’s biggest annual holiday, the Lunar New Year usually dampens economic activity as factories and offices close shop for long periods before and after the festivities.
Although China’s economic data is in theory adjusted for seasonal factors to smoothen out fluctuations due to events such as holidays, most experts do not agree on the best method for seasonal adjustments and do their calculations differently.
“Every time we think we understand what the Chinese New Year effect is, we will hear later that there has been some adjustments,” said Louis Kujis, an economist at RBS.
“It’s fair to say that this should not make people more nervous about global demand and China’s economy, but I also think we have to keep on scrutinizing the data and wondering how much this really means.”
– REUTERS
The management of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has advised International Oil Companies, terminal and jetty operators, and all other companies involved in stevedoring in the country to refrain from engaging unregistered dockworkers.
The information was contained in a statement made available to Biztellers by the Head, Public Relations, NIMASA, Osagie Edward.
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According to the statement, all stakeholders, including dock labour employers and stevedoring companies, are encouraged to apply for new operating licenses or renew expired ones within a 30-day moratorium period.
“This requirement,” it added, “is stipulated by the NIMASA Act of 2007 and outlined in the NIMASA Stevedoring Regulations of 2014, which mandates strict compliance from all maritime operators.”
Osagie cited the Director General, NIMASA, Dr. Dayo Mobereola as laying emphasis on the need for stakeholders to comply with extant laws and regulations.
Dr Mobereola said, “No terminal or company shall continue to engage the services of unregistered dockworkers for cargo handling at their work locations.
“This move is part of our broader effort to ensure safe and regulated operations within Nigeria’s maritime industry. Compliance with these regulations will enhance our ability to maintain an up-to-date database of dockworkers operating in the country. It also improves our planning processes, as we are committed to developing their capacity to meet globally accepted standards for dockworkers in Nigeria. We intend to enforce full compliance after the moratorium period.”
It was gathered that the NIMASA Act, 2007, Part IX, Section 27, addressed the registration of Dockworkers with focus on Maritime Labour.
“It ensures the Registration, Regulation, and control of Maritime Labour, including dockworkers. The Act assigns the Agency the responsibility of maintaining standards in accordance with international best practices,” Osagie added.
Nigeria has expressed a strong desire to seek election into Category “C” of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Council.
The Honorable Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, made the disclosure at the 2024 World Maritime Day parallel event in Barcelona, Spain.
Oyetola noted that Nigeria has put in place the basic needs for the development of her maritime industry in line with recognized global best practices.
In his words, “our active participation in upholding key conventions, such as the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) and the International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) Code, reflects our dedication to ensuring the safety of international shipping.
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There have been no incidents of piracy in the last three years, as confirmed by the International Maritime Bureau (IMB). By deploying resources to provide maritime security assets, Nigeria has solidified its role as a key guardian of maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea.
Nigeria remains a valuable source of manpower for the industry. I therefore urge our partners to explore this potential and assist where possible in the best interest of all. Our Maritime Academy has adequate resources and facilities to support this development.
“I am pleased to announce Nigeria’s resolve to seek a Category “C” membership on the Council.
On his part, the Director General of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Dr. Dayo Mobereola, assured that no stone will be left unturned to ensure success in the quest for IMO Category C membership at the next elections.
According to him, “We at NIMASA have met with the IMO technical team and have commenced work on all identified grey areas so that Nigeria can address the gaps identified during the last audit by the IMO.
”We have also commenced the process of effective communication with other member states using the IMO GSIS platform, among others. While we at NIMASA focus on the technical aspects of the preparations, our supervising Ministry will provide the political will to guide Nigeria back to the Council at the IMO.”
Oyetola, who held engagement sessions with the IMO Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez and other diplomats, was accompanied on the working tour by the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary, Mr. Olufemi Oloruntola; the Director General of the NIMASA; the Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Dr. Abubakar Dantsoho; the Managing Director of NIWA, Mr. Bola Oyebamiji; and the Director of Maritime Safety and Security Services, Mr. Babatunde Bombata.
This year’s parallel event with the theme: Navigating the Future: Safety First, brought together international maritime leaders and experts to discuss future challenges and opportunities, with the aim of ensuring that safety is prioritized in the day-to-day operations of the global maritime sector.
The adoption of the Public Private Partnership (PPP) model is essential for the infrastructural development of Nigeria’s maritime sector.
This is the view of the Director General of the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Dr. Dayo Mobereola.
The DG, shared his views while hosting the Director General of the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC), Dr. Jobson Oseodion Ewalefoh.
He emphasized the importance of the Commission’s increased involvement in attracting private investors to develop infrastructural capacity in Nigeria’s maritime sector.
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Dr. Mobereola said, “We appreciate the Management of the ICRC for being responsive. However, you know that the maritime sector is capital intensive and government funds cannot solely put in place the required infrastructure. We need the ICRC to develop PPP based business models that will be attractive to the private sector both from within and outside the country.
“There is the need to streamline processes by the use of technology, as we will continue to count on the support of ICRC to help drive the Agency’s PPP projects for effective and efficient service delivery to our stakeholders”.
Lending support to Dr. Mobereola’s views, Dr. Ewalefoh, underscored the significance of the maritime sector to Nigeria’s economy.
He noted that the PPP model would facilitate increased funding and expertise from the private sector, thereby accelerating the growth and development of the Nigerian maritime sector. Additionally, he stated that the ICRC is prepared to engage with the Agency on its projects and ensure timely execution.
“There is no time to waste; our country needs lots of funding for infrastructure and we need to create an enabling environment for activities to thrive. First, is service delivery, not revenue generation, and people will be willing to pay if they get the right services”, the ICRC boss noted.
The PPP model has proven to be the most viable approach worldwide for driving government policies that promote development and economic growth.
Biztellers reports that as a regulatory agency and Nigeria’s Maritime Administrator, the NIMASA has consistently embraced collaboration and partnership through the PPP initiative to ensure the growth and development of the maritime sector.
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